Boston’s Offense
You know what the Boston media doesn’t want you to forget? That Theo Epstein focused on run prevention this off-season. As such, columnists hold a sense of animosity towards the Red Sox’s lineup. Boston scored 872 runs last season, third most in the American League, and hit 212 homers, also good for third most in the American League. Oh, and they did this with Nick Green or Alex Gonzalez in the lineup most days.
Let’s focus on this season though. For whatever reason, Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron are being looked upon as defensive collateral, allowed to bat only so they are allowed to field. For whatever reason, the common thought is that Boston’s offense will struggle to score runs. That assumption is based in something, but that something is not reality.
Using Baseball Musings’ lineup analysis tool, I ran the 2009 Red Sox through (with Victor Martinez and Nick Green included) and found that their optimal lineup netted 5.86 runs per game (in reality they averaged 5.38). I then ran the CHONE projections for their prospective starters* through the same analysis and found that their optimal lineup expects to produce 5.33 runs per game. Odds are the Red Sox won’t score exactly 5.33 runs per game, but if they do, the difference in optimal lineups – which, let’s be honest, few teams actually run out what the lineup analysis tool would consider optimal – is a half run per game. In reality, the difference would be 0.05 runs per game; or about eight runs over a full season.
Yes, Beltre and Cameron are going to swing and miss quite a bit. And yes, they’ll chase some pitches they shouldn’t have. And yes, the sixteenth time Dan Wheeler enters to face the pair is going to be as tedious as the dozen before, but at the end of the day, Boston’s offense is going to be fine. And odds are, the Red Sox as a whole will benefit from these changes more than expected.
*It’s worth noting that Mike Cameron’s CHONE projection is awfully unkind: .235/.318/.393 unkind. Cameron hasn’t posted an on-base percentage that low since 2004 and the last time his slugging percentage fell below .400 was 1998 as a member of the White Sox. He will be 37-years-old and he will be playing in the American League East with a reputation as a swing and miss hitter, but he’ll also be playing in Fenway Park as a righty. I don’t know for sure, but I’d bet the over if we set the line on Cameron’s OPS at .711.
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I’ll also take the over on Beltre’s .746 CHONE projection. In 2007 and 2008 his road OPS was over .850.
and seriously Beltre is going to call Green Monster his best buddy.
How in the world is he going to has an OPS that low (logically
Aren’t the optimal lineups a half run per game different, and the reality will be a half run per game different. A difference of 80 runs over a year?
Please break it down for a newbie.
Half run different from what?
2010 optimal lineup (5.33) vs. 2009 optimal lineup (5.86).
Yes, it does look more like 80 than 8.
So it’s okay to think the Red Sox will EXCEED their projections, but if a writer thinks they will underperform their projections, they’re not being realistic.
They’re not being realistic because the projections are very low to begin with. So, yeah.
BD, start crying about East Coast bias, work in something about revenue-sharing allocations, then go to all caps and end with something about how unfair life is and how we all could never understand.
Lovingly, The Thoughts of Everyone Else
While you would think these would be obvious points, don’t try telling them to Boston columnists or for that matter a large chunk of the fanbase. They are likely to look at you suspiciously, remain silent for a few seconds, then resume declaring how JD Drew is overpaid and terrible, Beltre only hit 8 HR and is a bum, Cameron is old and is a bum, Mike Lowell had a great fielding percentage last year, Ellsbury was awesome in center field by my eyes, and Fire Theo.
Boston sports media in a nutshell, you said it perfectly. I’m sick of hearing guys like Dan Shaughnessy spill out bullshit about how bad the Sox offense will be this year. He actually said in one of his articles “Jason Bay in left and Ellsbury in center gives you more wins than Cameron in center and Ellsbury in left.”
I laughed. Really, really hard.
Dan Shaughnessy is the grittiest, clutchiest sportswriter I know. There is a lot of value there. Heh
“Jason Bay in left and Ellsbury in center gives you more wins than Cameron in center and Ellsbury in left.”
I laughed. Really, really hard.
i realize that Shaughnessy is a jackass, and i think Boston’s offense will be totally fine, but what is so outrageous about that claim?
Some of the very tools used by many people on this site seem to agree with that assessment.
That’s not saying that the Sox were stupid to pass on paying Bay $70M, that’s a different issue.
But I am failing to see what is so laughable about what he said. Is Jason Bay not a better offensive player than Cameron? Are we 100% sure that Ellsbury’s one poor year in CF is indicative of his defensive talent in CF? Isn’t Cameron starting to get a little long in the tooth while Ellsbury is entering his prime years?
I laughed that you would think different. Cameron is a major league bum. Who never saw a pitch he coudn`t swing thru. Come July you`ll have a new opinion.
Yea, I had the same reaction. CHB is an uninformed idiot, but that isolated statement isn’t worth laughing “really hard” about. It might very well be true.
Coming from a huge Boston fan, you’re absolutely right. It’s too bad.
It seems unfair to compare the projected 2010 optimal run scoring of 5.33 runs per game to the actual 2009 run scoring of 5.38 runs per game while at the same time stating that teams rarely score as many runs as the optimal lineup tool would predict. We should be comparing optimal 2009 run scoring to optimal 2010 run scoring.
The more important broader point is that the staggering improvement in run prevention via pitching/defense outweighs whatever offense was lost. A very few Boston media members/fans seem to understand this but many don’t.
The 09 lineup averaged that 5.38 despite a revolving door of replacement level play at SS, two months of Ortiz monumentally lost at the plate, and 425 PA’s by Varitek’s corpse. From 09 to 10 the only downgrade is from Jason Bay’s production to that of Ellsbury. Now add a full year of Martinez, a presumably “normal” (or what can be expected to pass for that at this point) year of Ortiz, Scutaro at SS instead of the 09 circus freakshow, and Cameron’s upgrade over Ellsbury. A healthy Beltre playing in Fenway should at the very worst be expected to duplicate Lowell’s 09 production, though seemingly everyone expects him to vastly surpass it. Does this cancel out Bay’s departure, maybe or maybe not depending on who you ask. At worst it is only a few ticks worse than 09′s. Certainly not the gaping offensive abyss that has RS fans predicting 1-0 games every other day.
Yeah let’s continue to ignore Cameron’s .326 OBP and .778 OPS in 96 career plate appearances at Fenway.
Or better yet, Beltre’s .299 OBP and .531 OPS in 67 Fenway PA’s.
And please, don’t insinuate the sample size is too small.
Projections based on past performance are relevant only if they support YOUR predictions, right?
Rather than insinuate something, allow me to tell you something that you apparently don’t know: those sample sizes are too small. Some projections are better than others, and CHONE’s are better than yours.
Whether or not CHONE’s is better than his won’t be known until the season ends. Right now that’s, like, just your opinion man. Have some humble pie.
This is sarcasm, right?
I have an IQ of 78.
Please don’t insinuate that I’m dumb.
Small sample size imo
Three-part question: How many of those PA’s came against Boston’s pitching staff? How many PA’s will Beltre and Cameron have against Boston’s pitching staff this season? How has Boston’s pitching staff compared to the league average recently?
Lets also ignore that Beltre and Cameron were facing very good Red Sox pitching and now they get to tee off on the likes of the Orioles and Blue Jays for almost a fourth of their home games.
We could also forget that Beltre was in an “awesome” lineup with “great” hitters like Richie Sexson, Jose Vidro and Carl Everett protecting his spot in the order.
Beltre had to face Red Sox pitching often enough, true, but Cameron–not so much in the NL with the Brewers. ;)
And it’s less about the lineup Beltre was hitting in thatn the park. Safeco did Beltre no favors, seeing as how it favors left-handed hitters and not so much right-handed pull hitters.
Yeah man, enormous sample size of 60-90 PAs at one park. No one has to insinuate anything about that sample size being too small, it is readily apparent. We should definitely ignore thousands of PAs for those players. Listen Shaughnessy, and listen good, you might consider asking yourself the same question you ask at the end of your comment. Lastly, abandon your spoiled brat tone, if I want that I can just talk to my teenage cousins.
Visions of Required’s Future…
Wine Bar, Quebec, Canada 2032 AD
“You know, I can’t in all good faith vote for Albert Pujols on the first-ballot because he slugged .783 in 43 PAs at the Rogers Centre”
Yeah let’s continue to ignore Pujols’s .239 AVG and .729 OPS in 84 plate appearances at Coors Field over the last 3 years.
Or better yet, Mauer’s .277 AVG and .339 OBP in 111 Arlington PA’s.
And please, don’t insinuate the sample size is too small.
Projections based on past performance are relevant only if they support YOUR predictions, right?
Clearly they would be terrible players in these parks.
Ahhhh… I see what you did here… very nice.
Phsaw! That Pujols guy is a bum! The Rockies would be crazy to trade for him with those numbers! (publishes a column in local newspapers)
I really don’t understand this article at all. About how many runs are the Red Sox expected to score this year, and how many are they expected to allow? What kind of win expectancy does this give them, and how does it compare to last year?
Aren’t most of the media concerned with how many runs they have lost offensively versus how many they’ve gained defensively? I would think that’s the relevant thing to consider here, not what a run simulator estimates their optimal lineups should score.
The point being suggested by these writers (and some fans) is not that the Sox won’t score runs, because they will. It’s if they’ll score runs vs strong pitching – like they failed to do last year. Fair gripe, imo. I personally don’t see them scoring much, but I also see the best pitching staff in MLB, and probably its best D, as well. Nice trade off.
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It is hard for any lineup to score runs against elite pitching. Ask the Yankee hitters how they like facing Felix Hernandez.
The point is the Sox won’t be allowing as many runs, hence they will have a chance to win a close low scoring game against elite pitchers.
Sorry, but I still don’t understand the article
I will repeat the post that put my question better than I put it:
“It seems unfair to compare the projected 2010 optimal run scoring of 5.33 runs per game to the actual 2009 run scoring of 5.38 runs per game while at the same time stating that teams rarely score as many runs as the optimal lineup tool would predict. We should be comparing optimal 2009 run scoring to optimal 2010 run scoring.”
Alex Speier of WEEI calculated that the offense would only be a tick or two less potent than last year, and the defense will be much improved – so better team. I think this piece is trying to say the same thing, but I don’t get the comparison of 2010 optimal to 2009 actual scoring figures. Doesn’t make sense.
You are right. RJ incorrectly makes this comparison. But I think he makes his overall point clear.
http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2009/12/08/life-away-bay-would-red-sox-offense-survive-wi
The first part of Speier’s piece, which he then followed up with even more positive numbers once Boston signed Cameron.
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/17/a-look-at-the-new-current-red-sox-lineup/
The later link and calulation
Beltre and Cameron will be bottom of the order guys along with Scutaro. The bottom of the order should look much better without Varitek and Green, and even if the OBP is low, the SLG should improve for these guys at Fenway.
The only risk for the offense really is how V-Mart responds offensively to more time behind the plate, if Ortiz continues his decline, and how healthy JD will be (his numbers last season were the result of a 1200 OPS stretch in the last 7 weeks of the season).
Worst case is an offense which scores 800 runs, best case is close to 900 (Papi is reborn, JD is an iron man, Beltre hits like it’s a contract year, Cameron is loving Fenway and changes his approach with 2 strikes, and the rest of the offense is healthy)
And if Papi falls off the cliff, and the Dodgers are out of it by the ASB, Manny says hi (just have to pick up his salary).
@ pft. I think your 2nd paragraph is what most Boston fans should be concerned about.
“(his numbers last season were the result of a 1200 OPS stretch in the last 7 weeks of the season).”
This is a negative? Oh gosh, if only J.D. Drew had sucked more for the final two months of the season, we’d have a more … accurate? .. idea of how good he’ll really be in 2010!
By the way, that’s a 1.143 OPS over the final eight weeks of the season, starting with the game immediately following his season-low OPS on July 26. Of course, Drew also posted an .897 OPS over the first nine weeks of the season ending June 16, so I guess we need to throw that out, too. Clearly, J.D. Drew’s true talent level is the .616 OPS he posted in the 30 games between June 16 and July 26.
Ignoring for a second the team’s vast improvement in run prevention, the offensive downgrade from Jason Bay to Mike Cameron is roughly 25 runs. Red Sox SS’s last season – or as I call them, The Quartet of Suck – combined for a .289 wOBA, which translates to -21 runs. Which means if Marco Scutaro merely realizes the Fan’s projections (.329 wOBA, or -.2 runs), it’ll offset a good chunk of the offensive chasm between Bay and Cameron.
Then we have Adrian Beltre. The third-baseman’s three-year splits (’06-08)* equates to a 108 OPS+, while Mike Lowell (’06,’08,’09) checks in at 104. The overall difference is worth 2-4 runs a year, which of course ignores the possibility that Beltre – a career .338/.488 hitter on the road – falls in love with Fenway and produces a final line comparable to his road splits from recent years (.350/500).
*Now, I know I’ll be accused of cherry-picking years. But I don’t think it’s apoplectic to give Beltre the benefit of the doubt by throwing out his injury-wracked ’09 season, in which he suffered a shoulder injury and literally busted a nut in August.
As for Lowell, which of these seasons looks like an outlier?
2006: .344 wOBA
2007: .377 wOBA
2008: .344 wOBA
2009: .346 wOBA
I’m pretty comfortable labeling Lowell a .345 wOBA hitter, which translates to roughly +5 runs park adjusted. I think Beltre’s better than that. Maybe he’s three runs better. Or six. Or 10.
The point is the ’10 Red Sox lineup will be comparable to its predecessor. I expect 855-875 runs scored, with one of the best run prevention attacks the game has seen this decade, as evidenced by Dewan’s prediction that the Sox are 80-90 runs better DEFENSIVELY. That’s before taking into account the addition of Lackey, the possible emergence of Buchholz for 30 starts, and the strong likelihood of competent Dice-K replacing cringe-inducing, oh-my-god-get-him-the-hell-out-of-there Dice-K, which posted a 5.09 FIP and .385 BABIP.
Eric Van?
I thought the same thing.
Paulftodd
Scutaro >> last year’s SS’s. A full year of Victor Martinez will be a nice boost too. Those two things could offset a lot of the offensive downgrade (or all of it?). Factor in some age-related declines from Ortiz and Drew (I don’t expect them to fall off a cliff or anything, mind), and sure the offense might score a handful fewer runs than last year. But the D will be improved, and they have a nasty rotation. They’re gonna be just fine, and will probably make the playoffs (either via division win or wildcard).
CHONE projects the RS at 93 wins. I’m not sure how accurate that will be, but at least it’s based on an accepted methodology. People here are mostly committing the mistake of taking ’09 as a baseline, then adjusting that year’s results based on roster moves and hopeful beliefs that certain bad performances on the part of returning players (Ortiz, Dice-K) won’t be repeated.
I think the RS are likely to have a reasonable offense, but I think their pitching is thinner than people want to admit. They have a terrific set of 1-3 starters, but the quality drops off from there. Dice-K’s record in MLB is troubling for a guy who was supposed to be both a top-of-the-rotation guy and a horse. Buchholz hasn’t proven anything. And Wakefield is clearly on his last legs at this point.
The reason I call that “thin” is that, if there’s a significant injury or just a bad year from one of the top 3 starters, this just doesn’t look like such a terrific staff. The BP isn’t all that impressive either.
To me, this looks like a team that could win 94-95 games IF mostly everything works out. But I could easily envision just a few things NOT working out and the RS winning only 87-88 games.
You say that Dice has had a troubling career “for someone who was supposed to be a top-of-the-rotation guy.” Well, he’s not a top-of-the-rotation guy on the RS – he’s their 4th starter. Also, Buchholz is their 5th starter. That = deep and good.
It will probably come down to injuries. As it often does.
@ Hit Dog: Right, but he’s not a legit top-of-the-rotation starter who is slotted at no. 4 (thus indicating tremendous rotation depth); he’s a no. 4 starter slotted at no. 4. And Buchholz is a no. 5 slotted at no. 5.
Nothing wrong with having a “4″ at “4″ and a “5″ at “5,” but how is that special? Starting pitching is supposed to be this team’s great strength. As it stands, a significant injury to Beckett or Lackey, or significant regression from Lester, makes them look like a “good” rotation, but hardly world-beaters.
I guess we’ll just have to agree to disagree. Look around at other teams. Subtract Dice’s injury-ridden 2009, and he is a “3″ at “4″ (CHONE projects a 4.33 FIP). I would argue, given his dominant year at AAA and his decent 2009, that Buchholz is, at worst, a “4″ at “5″ (CHONE projects a 4.27 FIP), with the upside of a 1/2.
Re: your injury comment: yes, if one of the RS’ best pitchers gets hurt, that could spell trouble. But please find me one team to which, if one of their 2 best pitchers were to get hurt, there would not be significant damage.
the Mets would not be significantly damaged if their second best pitcher got hurt.
but that’s b/c their second best pitcher is Oliver Perez.
“Re: your injury comment: yes, if one of the RS’ best pitchers gets hurt, that could spell trouble. But please find me one team to which, if one of their 2 best pitchers were to get hurt, there would not be significant damage.”
Oddly enough, the team that comes to mind is the Yankees.
Not to parrot Joel but I agree, its unfortunate the they do have a young capable replacement in either Joba, or Hughes. I don’t think they would handle the loss of AJ or Andy too poorly, but since both are risks maybe there is some hope.
Um, if Buchholz “hasn’t proven anything,” where does that leave Joba and Hughes for the Yankees? If Joba is already in the rotation, is the argument that Hughes has proven he can be an adequate replacement if Sabathia or Vasquez or Burnett go down? Because if Hughes has, then certainly Buchholz has.
Further questions: if Daisuke Matsuzaka is a No. 4 starter, he’s the best No. 4 starter in baseball, with an ERA+ of 126 entering last season and 117 even including the injury-affected starts he posted in 2009. How many No. 4 starters have had an MLB career 15 percent better than the league-average starter?
In fact, a recent Fangraphs article linked to Dave Cameron’s blog that featured the following handy chart for looking at starting pitching slots, if pigeonholing is your thing:
#1 STARTERS: 130 tRA+
#2 STARTERS: 112 tRA+
#3 STARTERS: 100 tRA+
#4 STARTERS: 91 tRA+
#5 STARTERS: 76 tRA+
Matsuzaka is a 2/3 based on his career tRA+ numbers to date, and he’s the Sox’ fifth starter entering the season. That’s incredibly deep — much deeper than last year, when he was the third starter.
“As it stands, a significant injury to Beckett or Lackey, or significant regression from Lester, makes them look like a “good” rotation, but hardly world-beaters.”
Make this statement about any starting rotation, including the Yankees’, and it would be just as accurate. It’s the preseason prognosticator’s version of saying, “If it rains today, there’s a good chance we’ll get wet.”
So, it wouldn’t affect the Yankees much if they lost Sabathia or Vasquez?
Hey Jeff –
Three part answer:
1) All of their PA’s came against Boston pitching.
2) That would depend on how long they stay with the Red Sox, now wouldn’t it?
3) How does Boston’s home pitching compare to the rest of the league?
2009 = 6th
2008 = 6th
2007 = 5th
2006 = 12th
2005 = 11th
Kinda blows your theory that Cameron’s and Beltre’s Fenway numbers are so poor because of superior Red Sox pitching, doesn’t it?
BTW if you check their home/road splits against Red Sox pitching you’ll find they have better numbers away from Fenway.
Feel free to bring Park Factors into your argument, I would love to hear that Beltre’s Fenway numbers are much worse than Dodger Stadium and Safeco because Fenway is a much more pitcher-friendly park! LOL!!!!
Mowill – Carl Everett played ONE year with Beltre, 2006 in Seattle.
Everyone Else – I wouldn’t think I’d have to explain this, but if you took the time to check you’d see Beltre’s PA’s are pretty evenly spread over 5 seasons and Cameron’s PA’s are evenly spread over 7 seasons.
If all the PA’s came in one or two seasons, then yeah you could say it was just an off year for the player.
When you’re talking 5-7 seasons against 5-7 different pitching staffs, the “small sample size” is more indicative of a trend.
And how you ended up on Sam Shaughnessy, Canada and Pujols I have no idea.
John Y – Clearly the only reason Pujols has performed poorly in Denver is because of that sensational Rockies pitching staff.
Same thing with Mauer in Arlington against those lights-out Rangers pitchers.
That’s the reason Cameron & Beltre have performed so poorly in Fenway, right? LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
dude you make no sense