Braves Sign Saito, Insert Old Jokes Here
Coming to a ballpark near you: Ghosts of Closers Past, by Frank Wren.
You could be lazy and look at Takashi Saito’s 2.43 ERA in 55.2 innings for Boston last season and think “he’s back”, but there’s some stuff going on here under the surface, and it’s not so good. Saito’s career K/9 of 10.9 dropped to 8.4, which is substantiated by an 80% contact rate. Compare that to a career rate of 73%. His walks were also up, as more batters sat back on his breaking stuff rather than chasing it outside of the zone.
Saito also became an extreme fly ball pitcher – 52% of his balls in play were flies, but 18% of those were of the infield variety, so that’s at least a positive here among some negatives.
Throw this and more together and out pops a 4.40 tRA – not completely terrible, but a clear decline across the board for Saito. It’s definitely not what you would want to see out of high leverage reliever.
The Red Sox, being the smart organization they are, saw this and were wary of giving Saito situations with little wiggle room. Saito’s average leverage index was 0.67. Translation: Saito was given mop-up duty. The Red Sox trusted others with more important situations. Now the Braves are likely going to thrust him back into working some crucial innings. Perhaps a little further removed from injury and Saito could be a little better, but at 40 years old I wouldn’t bank on it.
It’s hard for me to fathom this, but he Braves — a team with more serious concerns than building a bullpen (ahem, outfield) just gave $10 million and a draft pick to get a couple of brand name but geriatric relievers. And neither are far removed from some rather serious injury concerns. Good luck with that, Atlanta.
That being said, it’s not like the price is crazy, as in the case with Wagner.
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I think what the Braves lost in overpaying slightly for these guys, they gain back in the fact that these are low-risk one year deals. The worst that can happen is they both have sub-par years and are gone. The best that can happen is Saito is a dependable setup man and Wagner performs at the elite level he has always performed at. If Wagner finishes 50 games, his vesting option kicks in which, at the worse, gives the Braves another year of a HoF candidate. Saito is gone with no strings attached no matter what.
I think Wren has a trade in the works or else he wouldn’t have devoted 10 Mil to the bullpen so quickly. And the outfield isn’t as much of a concern as it seems.. McLouth is a 3-4 WAR player, Diaz has proven to be a very capable LFer, and Heyward will be ready soon enough. I’d like to see a Mike Cameron-type in the outfield but it isn’t the end of the world if it doesn’t happen. 1st base is the real issue and I am confident Wren has something in-line because I truly don’t feel that he would have gone through with these moves so hastily if he didn’t.
Saito was worth 8.2, 7.6, and 1.6M over the last three years. Seems hard to imagine Braves would lose out too much on this 3.2M contract.
Also, when considering these moves by the Braves it’s important to keep in mind that this is Cox’s last year and, justifiably or not, they might be willing to overspend on some of these spare parts when they have a good shot at making the playoffs.
I think the Braves’ outfield and first base will be fine. They’ll have McClouth, Diaz (perhaps with a platoon), and Heyward, and at first they’ll be able to get a solid FA when they trade Lowe and free up $12M or so. (perhaps eating 2-3M for this next year)
Curious who you think qualifies as a solid FA at first besides the guy they had last season?
I’d hate to be in need of a 1B right now.
Delgado, Nick Johnson and to a lesser extent, Blalock, Dye, Branyan and Chad Tracy.
Aubrey Huff isn’t so bad for a year, either.
After last season, I wouldn’t sign Huff to be anything but a reserve.
Typically when a guy is 40 you expect him to decline in value and skills every year, so looking at the last three years value doesn’t mean much other than that he is getting worse every year. This is supported by the numbers in the article in all of the downward trending stats.
For me, this guy will almost certainly be worth less than one win and if they cant find a guy in their minor league system to do that for the league minimum while keeping the draft picks that they have accumulated then they are in trouble anyway.
A bit of a reach, but perhaps Nick Johnson or Carlos Delgado. Might be able to pick someone up in a Lowe trade as well.
Also, can’t forget the added chemistry boost Saito might provide for Kawakami!
I find it slightly amusing that the Braves replaced the tandem of Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano with Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito. Anyone think these two guys may split closing duties like Gonzalez and Soriano?
“It’s hard for me to fathom this, but he Braves — a team with more serious concerns than building a bullpen (ahem, outfield) just gave $10 million and a draft pick to get a couple of brand name but geriatric relievers.”
Sure NOW offense is a concern. With Gonzo and Soriano gone, their top reliever was Peter Moylan. And the next best guy was either Eric O’Flaherty or the youngster, Kris Medlen. That’s not a need? They really needed to bring in a couple more bullpen guys, and they did that.
Also, OF isn’t a concern as much as 1B. McLouth will take one OF spot. They control two guys (Diaz and Church) who could prove to be the major’s best platoon combo for one spot, and they’ve got a couple youngsters who could help with the other (Schafer/Heyward). A veteran OF bat would be nice, but 1B is empty with LaRoche not being offered arbitration.
Please do your research better.
What an idiotic analysis. Most analysts think the Saito signing may one of the deals of the offseason, and counterweighs the premium the Braves paid for Wagner (which, mind you, isn’t really a material sum- perhaps in the magnitude of 1-2M.. hardly a steep price to pay). And what is all this talk of losing picks? The Braves will get their picks back with the losses of Gonzo and Soriano.. its a wash.
Get your head out of your anus and look at the Braves full roster. You must be a Phillies fan or something
OF issues? The only thing the Braves really need is someone who can hit righties well and not butcher LF defensively to complement Diaz. Heck Church could very well be that guy though I think an improvement could be made but one of Heyward/Schafer will make an impact next year in the only other open role so unless you can get a Mike Cameron, the OF is best solved internally
Braves scooped up two proven RP’s for below their respective market values, while meeting the team’s #1 off season priority (sorry, 1b is the next). Keeping in mind the talent at the plate in the AL East, it is possible that played a part in Saito’s declining under-the-surface numbers from ‘08 to ‘09? The move back to the NL will likely help.
The Lackey/Halladay signings will likely yield a trade market for Lowe and Vasquez, opening up the Braves’ average budget to fill their offensive needs. Like what was mentioned above, I think Wren’s got a deal in the works for Bobby’s last run.
The Braves are paying Wagner/Saito $10 million in 2010. In 2009, they paid Gonzalez $3.45 million and Soriano $6.1 million. So they are REALLY only paying an extra half a million or so on the closer and setup man over last year, and in my mind upgrading those positions significantly. While Gonzalez and Soriano are both younger than Wagner and Saito, Wagner and Saito have a MUCH better injury history, even when accounting for their most recent injuries. While there may be something to be said for Saito be using is “low leverage” situation last year, there is also something to be said for him leaving the AL for the more pitcher friendly NL (not to mention the Turner Field affect). And while Wagner and Saito both had elevated BB/9 rates last year (compared to career totals), they were still right in line with Soriano and Gonzalez.
Bottom line is they filled a need with a couple of very high upside arms for very a moderate amount of risk on a couple of short term deals. All that in a market with a lot more demand than supply.
I agree with the others, I don’t think this was a bad move at all for the Braves. That goes for both signings, Saito and Wagner.
Also about this “It’s hard for me to fathom this, but he Braves — a team with more serious concerns than building a bullpen (ahem, outfield)”
Last season the OF was the Braves biggest need but that was when Gonzalez, Soriano and LaRoche where still on the team.
With them losing their top 2 bullpen arms and you don’t think the bullpen is a concern? All they did was replace the guys that are leaving, the bullpen wouldn’t have been a concern if they had Soriano and Gonzalez still but they don’t.
Lose 2 guys from your bullpen that combined for 37 saves 150 IP and about 11.5 SO/9 from the year before and add in the fact that one was a lefty and one a righty and all of the sudden you have a big need their, pretty simple really.
Also 1st base is a bigger need for the Braves than the OF is atm, they have a few options in the OF but they don’t currently have a 1st baseman.
When addressing Saito’s decline, you have to account for the fact that he moved from an NL team that plays in a renown pitchers’ park to an AL team that plays in a renown hitters’ park. I think it’s more reasonable to expect his ratios to hold steady – or possibly even show a slight uptick.
Saito is so old that as a rookie, he calculated his rookie year E.R.A on an abacus.
***crickets chirping***
Wow. There is some serious hate for the Braves in that article. Don’t worry Mr. Cardinal Fan, the Braves will be fine next year. What is so wrong with signing Wagner and Saito? The Braves get a total of four upper draft picks for losing Gonzalez and Soriano and replaced them with higher quality and less expensive pitchers.
I do agree that the outfield needs serious help. I’m not sold on Diaz being an every day player or Jason Heyward being ready for opening day. Church will likely be non-tendered and GA will also be gone. Signing a guy like Mike Cameron makes a ton of sense. As for 1B, my hope is that they re-sign LaRoche.
I am pretty indifferent to these moves, but to say that Saito/Wagner are of “higher quality” than Gonzalez and Soriano is simply untrue.
I’m a Braves fan who pretty much agrees with Erik’s remarks. Those who are critical of his analysis seem to be forgetting that these are two recently injured, old pitchers. If someone were to ask me what could be expected of them, I would shrug my shoulders. It’s a real crap shoot.
Well, Soriano and Gonzalez are pretty big injury risks too…I think I’d call it a wash on that front.
Wagner pitched well at the end of the year last year. Yeah, he’s a risk, but he’s got similar career numbers to Mariano (w/o the rings) and has been rather consistent too, as he’s only had a poor, lasting performance once or twice in his career. And, perhaps a move to Atlanta from NY will reduce the pressure a bit, and his playoff numbers will improve. Perhaps.
Didn’t Boston have a deep, talented bullpen? It’s no wonder he was put in low-leverage situations and not given an opportunity to come back in 2010. They simply didn’t take him seriously or give him an opportunity.
Two one-year contracts vs two multiple-year contracts. Plus, Gonz and Sori are going to get raises. They didn’t fit into ATL’s plans. If you’re going to compare, you have to compare them with what Gonz and Sori are expecting for contracts for this off-season. I don’t know if its completely fair to evaluate the opportunity cost of Gonz and Sori to Wagner and Saito.