Break Out the Brooms
Four days ago, if I had said that the four game series between the Phillies and the Astros would end in a sweep, I don’t think that anybody would find that claim terribly outlandish. If I had said that it would be the Astros completing that sweep this afternoon, I would have been laughed out of the room. However, behind a 5-1 victory over the Phillies today at Citizen’s Bank Park, the lowly Astros extended their winning streak to five games, including a road sweep over the two time defending National League champions.
Entering the series, the Phillies had a .556 winning percentage and a .529 third order winning percentage – winning percentage based on expected runs scored and allowed and adjusted for strength of schedule – according to Baseball Prospectus’s adjusted standings. The Astros entered the series with a .439 winning percentage and a .405 third order winning percentage. Basically, by either measure, the Phillies have played about 120 points of winning percentage better than the Astros this season.
Let’s take a look at just how unlikely, then that makes this sweep. The method to use here is the log5 method, a method derived by Bill James to estimate the winning percentage when two teams meet. The following formula gives the expected winning percentage for team A facing team B:
According to this method, the Phillies would be expected to win one game 61.5% of the time using raw wins. Using third-order wins – the better method – the Phillies are expected to win one game 62.3% of the time. However, we have to account for the Phillies playing at home. Since the home team wins 54% of the time in MLB, we credit the home team with 20 points of winning percentage and subtract 20 points from the away team. With this adjustment, the Phillies win 65.3% of the time with raw wins and 65.1% of the time with third order wins. Using probability theory, we can then determine the amount of times we would expect the Phillies to win 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 games in a four game series, as seen in the following chart.
Expecting Philadelphia to sweep the series wasn’t realistic, as the odds of Philadelphia taking four out of four was only 18%. However, they should have won the series – 56% probability of three or four wins – and a series loss should only have happened 11% of the time. Now, we know that some crazy things happened, particularly in the 16 inning game which saw Roy Oswalt make an out in left field. Still, we would only expect a sweep to happen 1% of the time. This one out of one hundred could be disastrous for the Phillies. Over the past week, their playoff odds according to Baseball Prospectus have fallen by 23%, and before this game their odds were roughly 1 in 3. San Francisco is off tonight, but Los Angeles has already won and St. Louis plays the Nationals tonight. The Phillies lost out on a major chance to make a stand in the Wild Card race and capitalize on a three game losing streak in Atlanta. It’s not fair to say that this series will take all of the blame if the Phillies miss the postseason, but there’s no denying that this sweep was disastrous for Philadelphia baseball.
40
We might have won one or two if it weren’t for a retarded umpiring crew
Excuses, excuses.
Signed,
Bobby Cox.
I only remember one call which was obviously blown, which was the Ryan Howard checked swing strikeout in the fourteenth inning of that sixteen-inning game. And who knows what would have happened in that at bat if it had been called a ball.
Plus, really… at that point, you’d gone fourteen innings. If you haven’t won by then…
The other call was in the 1st game of the series when replays seem to indicate that Ryan Howard tagged Michael Bourn before Bourn was called safe and eventually scored the winning run. That being said, the Phillies have no one (umps included) but themselves to blame for getting swept. Yes, the umps missed some calls…shit happens. However, when you only score 7 runs in 43 innings at home against the Astros, the hitters have to look in the mirror to see the culprit behind the sweep.
More than likely, Howard would have struck out anyway.
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/08/05/umpire-bob-davidsons-blown-call-costs-marlins-victory/
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What were the odds of the Braves and Phillies both being swept in their respective series?
The odds of the Braves being swept in 3 games in Colorado where the Rockies have a great home field advantage were probably around 10%. Therefore, if you multiply 10% by 1.45%, you get 0.145% (~1 in 700) chance that they both get swept.
The Astros also swept the Phillies in a four game series last year in September. That series was in Houston, though.
I’m lovin’ this
Jimmy Rollins said that for some reason the Astros(no matter how bad or good)have their number. In the past few years, it seems that way.
The Phillies are 16-18 against Houston since 2006 but with a strong 20-14 pythagenport record. It was from 2001 to 2005 that a solid Philadelphia ballclub struggled against a slightly superior Astros team, with an actual record of 10-20 and an expected one of 11-19.
Rollins missed out on the real carnage though, when from 1996 to 2000 the Killer B’s held the Phightin’s to a 16-32 won-lost and an even worse 14-34 pythag.
The Pirates, Orioles, Astros, etc are screwing everything up.
If you allow yourself to be put in the position where a call by an umpire can decide the game, then you have done a poor job of execution on the field. If after 14 innings and you say the deciding factor is a checkswing, then something is wrong with your execution. Dont blame the umps. Yes, they will blow calls, but if you are up a few runs, the blown call isnt a big deal. Take care of your business and the rest will take care of itself.
Yeah, as a coach I often say the same thing as to keep our player focus where it should be. But, in my mind, I’m thinking “That BS hurt.”
Saying things such as “don;t blame the umps” and “If you’re up 3 runs, bad calls don’t hurt” and “take care of business” is as much BS, as blaming a loss on a bad call that didn’t immediately result in the end of the game.
I wonder why teams just don’t pummel their opponents all of the time and take the umpire’s decisions out of the game? I guess they probably haven’t thought of that. I’ll e-mail them.
I equate this to the “bad craftsman blames his tools” ethos. While it something I’ve often encountered in the trades there many instances where bad tools will simply yield more inferior product unless more time is spent to adjust , resharpen, reconfigure the damn thing. Cheap tools usually go out of square, have warped cast iron tops, lack weight to offset vibration, have blades that don’t hold a strong durable edge, etc.. Usually two hour session with a cheap hand plane like a Buck Bros. and just an above average grade like a Record or an old Stanely will convince people about importance and accuracy of a good tool over the cheaper one. I buy quality because I want consistency and piece of mind that comes with it. I don’t a a project compromised at the 11th hour because a tool failed to perform as expected.
That call was borderline, but it wasn’t even an egregiously bad call. Howard let his emotions get the best of him by yelling and throwing his bat and it cost him in the end.
Plus, Howard was already 0-7 with 5 Ks in that game. Who’s to say he’d have done any better than Oswalt when he batted in the 16th. Of course, they probably wouldn’t have walked Utley to get to him, but still.
The sweep was disastrous yet they are still right at the top of the wildcard race and only 3 back in their division. How disastrous could that be?
I ‘ve heard some of the players say it in post game interviews but dismissed it as “How To Handle the Media” talking points crap. However after such a performance I must seriously entertain that the “hitting is contagious” clubhouse maxim I hear is the foundation upon which their Baseba’al belief structure is built.
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