Breaking the Milestone Trend
For years now an automatic rubric of sorts has been in place to determine the Hall of Fame eligibility for hitters: launch 500+ home runs or amass 3,000+ hits. If either of these milestones are reached, the player has been more than likely to eventually find himself enshrined in Cooperstown. With the recent influx of power, however, several players with questionable credentials have either surpassed the 500 HR benchmark or have at least put themselves in solid position to do so in the next year or two. Players like Gary Sheffield and Carlos Delgado will finish their careers with more than 500 longballs and Jim Thome may very well reach 600, yet none of these three are considered Hall of Fame locks. And if Sheffield finishes at 518 HR, is he that much more worthy than Fred McGriff and his 493 gopherballs?
The 3,000 hit plateau has not been put under as much scrutiny because producing such a total is not necessarily considered as tainted. In a few years, however, a 20% chance exists that this milestone may no longer signal an automatic berth into baseball’s hallowed hall. Why 20%? Well, because Garret Anderson, he of the 2,368 hits, has a 20% chance of reaching 3000. Using Bill James’ Favorite Toy, Anderson is expected to play for another three seasons at an average of 148 hits/season, thus ending his career at 2,812. The 20% shot at 3,000 in no way locks him in but does acknowledge the definite possibility of such an event occurring.
If he reaches 3,000 hits, which I hope happens, the benchmark will lose its credibility because Garret Anderson is not a Hall of Fame player. Granted, my view of the HOF as an historical document of sorts designed to showcase the can’t-miss players of a certain era may differ from that of others, but regardless of our views I am extremely confident that everyone would agree Anderson is not of the HOF-ilk. Why do I hope he gets to the aforementioned milestone? Because if the credibility of the milestone is weakened with regards to the Hall of Fame, perhaps situations wherein aging players hurt their team’s production in order to reach the milestone will be lessened, if not eradicated.
Did Craig Biggio really need 3,000 hits to earn his way into the Hall of Fame? Not in my eyes. Did he hurt the Astros in the process of reaching the milestone? Yes, because he prevented more productive players from accruing playing time at the expense of a milestone relatively meaningless to his HOF chances. This is what bugs me about the milestones: if you need a specific number for everyone to believe you belong, chances are you do not belong.
The Hall of Fame is certainly about numbers but it is also about impact. Sandy Koufax came nowhere near 300 wins, and was only effective in 6 of his 12 seasons, yet he was a no-doubter. Garret Anderson is 36 yrs old, somewhere between a +0.7 and +1.0 win player this season, and will be pretty lucky to find work next season barring an abnormally strong 2009 campaign. Still, I’m holding out hope that he lasts for another few seasons, gets his 3,000th hit, effectively destroying the credibility of the milestone in the process. 3,000 hits is a tremendous feat for any hitter to accomplish, but it should in no way signal an automatic berth into the Hall of Fame without the impact of the player taken into context as well.
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Anderson’s candidacy is a joke. 3,000 hits can’t possibly mask a .296/.327/.469 career line. 397 walks against 1117 strikeouts is just abysmal for a corner outfielder. Those inclined to make such arguments would have a hard time saying he played in an era when walks weren’t emphasized. And as a final nail in a well-sealed coffin, Rally has Anderson at 30.6 wins above replacement for his career. Andre Dawson, in comparison, was worth 55 wins. Granted, using total zone for the fielding runs is a little suspect, but these values seem to pass the smell test with flying colors.
I think Sheffield and Thome (64.5 and 67.4 wins, respectively) should go in and Delgado (46.9) will warrant some careful consideration if he produces for a few more years.
So Anderson + 600ish hits = Better players?
What really bugs me is how milestones are used to show why someone should not be elected into the HOF.
I’ll show my Mariners bias here, but Edgar Martinez “only” reached 2,247 hits largely because he was on the depth chart behind Jim Presley until 1990, his age 27 season. This lack of a hitting milestone will be used against him when voting time comes around despite plenty of other evidence that suggests he should receive serious consideration.
The same argument may be used against Ichiro when his turn comes.
Milestones not only get unworthy people in, the keep worthy people out because they’re so much easier than properly weighting and thinking.
Exactly
agree on the milestones, but Edgar’s years as a DH are going to hurt more than “only” 2,247 hits.
Edgar is the only person to make a career as a DH doing what the position was designed for: hitting so much it didn’t matter that he couldn’t field a position. He belongs in the Hall of Fame. I even have numbers to back me up: 544.5 career batting runs above average according to Fangraphs, 559 according to to Rally. Take away 140 runs as a position penalty, add 300 to adjust for replacement level, and you wind up with 70 or so career wins above replacement. That’s value on par with Johnny Bench or Tim Raines or Ozzie Smith.
It’s not too hard to imagine him racking up another ten wins if he hadn’t been so horribly mishandled early in his career.
All that said, I think he’s encountering stupidity on so many fronts that I don’t have much hope for him getting voted in anytime soon. There’s just too much anti-DH bias and milestone fetishism for him to have a realistic shot.
Well, we can put him in the “Hall of guys who should be in Cooperstown.” Inaugural class of Joe Jackson, Pete Rose, Bert Blyleven, Rock Raines, and Martinez. Other candidates include Trammel and Whitaker (questionable qualifications but definitely not in Coop) and the Bonds/McGwire/Sosa/Clemens/A-Rod crowd (definitely qualified, but questionable admission).
Hey, someone has to pick up where the writers failed.
Raines should have retired in ’93. He only contributed 7 WAR in the next nine seasons and it makes his résumé look neater.
Are you insinuating that McGriff came close to the level of value that Sheffield created over his career? I mean, I can buy that McGriff had a better peak, and I am a big peak guy when ranking players over their career, but I don’t see how McGriff is anywhere near as good as Sheffield.
No, the point was that there are people who would rubber-stamp 518, but be much more critical of 493. Ceterus paribus, 25 home runs over the course of two pretty long careers is inconsequential, but for some people, 518 is in and 493 is out.
I strongly agree with your viewpoints!
As players’ skills increase and their longevity in the league increases these milestones will no longer be that measuring tool to help decide who gets in.
The HOF is a collection of those players of a generation that should not be forgotten- which brings up another question:
In today’s steroid era do the “infamous” players like Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez make it in?
One way of looking at this might be, how many hits did a player get versus his league average? Meaning, versus what an average player would have gotten taking into account the same environment (outs made, park factors, league, year)?
Ty Cobb, for instance, had 4,189 career hits against a league average of 2,736, for an index of 153. This is #1 in history for all players with 2,000+ hits and 7,500+ PAs. Ted Williams is 2nd with a 145 index (2,654 hits vs LgAvg of 1,834).
In the group of 241 players meeting these criteria, Garret Anderson is 101st with at an index of 114 (2,368 hits, LgAvg of 2,075). Pretty good, sure, but HOF? Well, he is one slot better than Mel Ott (2,876 hits/2,523 LgAvg). So that’s pretty good — although Ott is not in the Hall of Fame because of his hit total.
Other stars in Anderson’s constellation (index range of 113-115) include Roberto Alomar, Kenny Lofton, Duke Snider, Barry Larkin, Jeff Bagwell and Bill Buckner. All are very good, even excellent, players, but except for the Duke, few of them rate serious HOF consideration.
But none of these guys have over 3,000 hits, which is the rubric at issue. So what about the guys with 3,000 hits? Where are their indexes coming in?
There are six guys with 3,000 hits who have indexes less than that of Garret Anderson:
Eddie Murray, 3,255, 113
Cal Ripken, 3,184, 106
Robin Yount, 3,142, 113
Dave Winfield, 3,110, 110
Craig Biggio, 3,060, 107
Rickey Henderson, 3,055, 106
All of these guys are bona fide Hall of Famers for reasons other than their hit totals — although there is legitimate debate about Craig Biggio. He was versatile, putting in significant time at three up-the-middle positions, and he had a very good career OPS+ of 111 with season peaks at 143, 141 and 139, which at these positions is mighty fine. But if you’re looking at his raw hit totals, you’d also be well-served to consider that he outperformed his league by a mere 7%, or at roughly the same rate as Luis Gonzalez, Lou Whitaker and Edgar Renteria (interestingly, another current player The Toy gives a very good chance of hitting 3,000 hits).
As for Garret Anderson: while he had a fairly decent hit index, better than or equivalent to that of some Hall of Famers, you’d also have to take into account his position (LF, and increasingly DH), his HR total (~325 by career end), his OBP, as mentioned earlier (.327 in a hitter’s era, -4% less than league average), and his wholly unimpressive OPS+ record (career 105, with six of his 14 full seasons at sub-100).
Definitely not Hall of Fame, indeed — hit total be damned.
I think this is lot of hand wringing over a relatively meaningless stat. Granted 3,000 hits is a good proxy for longevity, which is a good proxy for value. But why not just try to measure that value directly?
“Other stars in Anderson’s constellation (index range of 113-115) include Roberto Alomar, Kenny Lofton, Duke Snider, Barry Larkin, Jeff Bagwell and Bill Buckner. All are very good, even excellent, players, but except for the Duke, few of them rate serious HOF consideration.”
Uh…Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Duke Snider, and Jeff Bagwell all deserve induction, let alone serious consideration.
Quick: name the top five hitters in WAR from ’92 to ’99.
Give up?
Barry Bonds, 68.4
Ken Griffey, Jr., 55.9
Jeff Bagwell, 54.7
Kenny Lofton, 47.8
Frank Thomas, 46.2
Fascinating, no?
I already agreed on The Duke. I would agree on Bagwell and Larkin as well. I don’t see Alomar making it anytime soon giving his falling off the cliff at age 34.
Alomar racked up 66 WAR in the 14 seasons prior to the cliff dive. As a guy who once knew someone who claimed to be Alomar’s nephew, I’d hate to see an ignominious finish to his career overshadow what had otherwise been a slam dunk case for the Hall.
One interesting benchmark that existed for a while that is currently “broken” is 3,000 whiffs. Bert Blyleven will probably make it at some point though, and the active or recently retired pitchers who aren’t yet eligible all have a shot to make it (Maddux, Smoltz, Pedro, Schilling). But with the prevalence of whiffs in the game today, you’re going to start seeing this milestone lose its significance as well. Javier Vazquez – who has 2,015 whiffs – is the guy who could break that barrier. If he whiffs 150 a year from now until his age 38 year he’ll have over 3,000 Ks, yet no one would seriously argue he’s a HOFer either.
I don’t think we’re going to see the number of 3000 strikeout pitchers that we just saw in the generation now retiring. We’re just exiting probably the greatest pitching generation in the history of the game: Clemens, Unit, Pedro, Maddux are the big four, but lesser pitchers like Smoltz, Schilling, Mussina, Cone, and others were very, very good too. There are six 3000 strikeout pitchers right there, which is over a third of the total club. Vazquez is likely to hit 3000 strikeouts because he’s a durable strikeout pitcher. But who else among those pitching today is going to reach 3000 strikeouts? Johan, maybe. Not Halladay, nor Webb. Probably not Peavy. To get 3000 strikeouts, you have to be three things: durable, able to get strikeouts, and in the league at a young age. Who meets those critera? Felix. Bonderman has an outside shot. But who else? No one. So I think you have more to worry about on the hitting end than the pitching end as far as Hall of Fame benchmarks.
Yeah, the reduced number of innings pitched hurts most of these guys.
Sabathia has 1400 Ks at 28, so if he pitches until he’s 40 he’ll probably make it.
Lincecum didn’t start young enough but if he can get a couple more years of 250-300 under his belt without getting injured, he’ll have a shot.
After that, there’s a bunch of guys who probably won’t.
Of course, knowing the writers, they’d just see that 3000 hits and mark their automatic ‘Yes’ box without looking at the rest of Garret’s game, keeping with their automatic milestone standards.
For a group that’s always telling us how much of a privilege and honor it is to do the voting, they seemingly don’t take it all that seriously in the end (unless you did steroids; then they’re all super serious).
Kind of unrelated but is there a list somewhere that shows all of the hall of fame voters? Because even I criticize the so called experts but the only guys I can think of that vote on it are guys I like.
Wow never mind I found a list, how the hell is Woody Paige a voter? He’s a nut case.
I think you guys are looking too hard at his numbers and seriously giving too much credit to retarded sports writers. They will say GA was a nice guy, a good guy in the community, and most importantly they will paint him as a non steroid guy in the steroid era. So that will justify his lack of power and other shortcomings because there is no way the old school baseball writers will leave out a 3000 hit guy.
Looking too hard at his numbers? Taking a hard look at the numbers is precisely what you are supposed to do when considering someone for the Hall of Fame.
If Anderson is elected to the HoF, you may as well start calling it the Hall of Fame and Longevity. Better yet, the Rooms of Fame and Longevity, so it can be shortened to RoFL.
You’re nowhere near as clever as you think you are.
I don’t believe Andre Dawson belongs in the Hall of Fame but how can you justify putting Garrett Anderson in before Dawson. Garrett Anderson (the poster) how can you be 100% certain he never used PED’s, as the great Alex Sanchez proved to us, nobody can be written off.
I think we have to look at some kinds of stat milestones when evaluating players for the Hall, because the voters are not talented enough to judge player’s impacts on the game.
If in the authors opinion, the hall should be for players who impacted the game the most in thier generation, than Trammel, Jack Morris, and to a lesser extent Lou Whittaker should all be in the hall.
Morris was the most dominate pither for the 1980′s. But yet he most likley isnt going to make it. Trammel didnt have the bat of Ripken or the glove of Smith, but was just as good as those 2 when you look at the all around player.
If Trammel had played for the Yankees he would have been a 1st ballot HOFer with out a doubt.
But since he didnt play for a team like that, or reach a milestone, he is on the outside looking in.
Anyway, my point is the impact SHOULD be what we look at. But Trammel is a glaring example of why we cant trust these voters to judge based on impact. We have to have some kind of benchmark for these guys to look at, or the whole Hall would be filled with Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers.
(Anyone who doesnt think Trammel would be in the hall if he played in NY, please let me know why.)
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Higuain in January 2007 to join real Madrid, in the individual first three season in the champions league game, small smoking gun 14 appearances but without the particles.In the last two seasons, higuain respectively in the champions league, scored two goals.Super easy by small scored twice in Zurich,moncler new bar, Argentina are open last season the ajax and AC milan gate.
Distance higuain last in the champions league,moncler sales break, there have been more than a year, he scored a goal came last November 3 at the SAN siro stadium.Real Madrid will tomorrow morning at home against dinamo Zagreb, Croatia before 4 wheels team defeats product 0 points.According to jose mourinho’s rotation, higuain Seattle will become real Madrid for single arrow.Face completely without morale of Croatia, small smoking gun will have a chance to smash the champions league goal drought.
The heavy rain pouring, the mestalla will meet showdown.moncler salesThe match against the root g, valencia still only to win a way, like the fourth round at home against bayer leverkusen game.So, valencia could in the last round of arriving at the bridge has more leeway, and ZhiBuDing matabeleland will bat.
Diego alves is valencia away 0-0 root in the first round of group g window,moncler sales he was in before the help the team to keep fighting the draw, of course, lam barb hit the crossbar is also is a pity.The Brazilian is the main international goalkeeper and a half,moncler sales and against real Madrid in the last BBVA the Spanish league of ancient eta grabbed the starting position.Merry need ancient eta’s and diego alves up to,moncler new because valencia have two super goalkeeper, ready to go.
Doubt was also in other position, HuoNa, or Matthew, Patrick ray whether to continue the game, recently after substitute do well at the can and soldado paired up front.Meili has not optimistic, after all is valued not for victory.Perhaps is the rain war, but valencia no leeway.
valencia could in the last round of arriving at the bridge has more leeway, and ZhiBuDing matabeleland will bat.
Romantique consiste à trouver la perfection?L’amour est tolérance des fautes
Robin van persie, David silva, mata, rafael van der vaart,moncler sales bell, malouda, downing, Charlie Adam…They?Yes, they are all the premiership’s top left foot will, with the habits of their gold for the fans left foot passion, successful for the team.Once upon a time, the premier league players,moncler new especially the left-handed native England players rare left-handed, and now has already become the goal with his left foot trend trend of the premier league.
According to the guardian, Jimmy Jackson’s statistics, the premier league this season before 12 rounds of a total of 356 goals in 110 is dedicated in his left foot,moncler sales was 30.9%, which indicates that the left foot goals have accounted for almost a third of the total score, and not in his right foot, header from close.If according to before 12 round figures go down, and the premier league this season tally to will achieve 1137 ball, left-footed finish will reach a record high of 351 pitches.
left-footed finish will reach a record high of 351 pitches.
Deron Williams score 24, nets to reach 15 3-pointers to the raptors 97-85 and end game 6-to skid
http://www.cheapbeatbydrdre.com/ The remote shooting down with them one by one, deron Williams and New Jersey nets have some interesting for a change.
Williams had 24 points and nine assists, and Anthony morrow also scored 24 and nets for six straight win over Toronto raptors 97-85 on Friday night http://www.cheapbeatbydrdre.com/ .
New Jersey guard Jordan farmar scored 10 points and substitute ex-Raptor Chris humphries matched a season high with 16 rebounds. “We really are in desperate need of a win tonight,” humphries said.
Brooke lopez has center (broken right foot), rookie guard MarShon Brooks (left ankle) and striker Damion James (a sore right foot), the nets lost starting center okur back spasms 3 minutes, in the opening quarter http://www.cheapbeatbydrdre.com/ .
But they because Williams after missing back to Wednesday’s loss to Boston, make rib, humphries, after two games because of a left shoulder pain before miss. Both of them are in the starting lineup. Tomorrow scored 14 points in the first half to New Jersey a 48-40 rest lead, Toronto’s largest halftime deficit season http://www.cheapbeatbydrdre.com/ .
I never understand this – how is Jim Thome not a lock?
Also, I am assuming someone brought up Rafael Palmeiro, but he had both these benchmarks (569 HRs, 585 2Bs) and never seemed like a HOFer (in my eyes), even before embarrassment ruined his chances
Beats By Dr Dre Lebron JamesSo who was the bride wearing? “The bride wore a custom Vera Wang strapless mermaid dress with abstract all-over lace underlay, Beats By Dr Dre Ferrari layered tulle skirt with horsehair banding and hand-cut corded lace applique with hand-applied crystal and pearl beading,” Scott’s rep tells E! News. “She complemented the gown with a mantilla veil with hand-cut chantilly lace applique. The groom donned a gray Ermenegildo Zegna suit.” Beats By Dr Dre Kobe Bryant Beats By Dr Dre Lamborghini The couple met in 2010 on the Tim McGraw tour and their love was the inspiration for Lady Antebellum’s “Just a Kiss.” Now that’s a story they can tell the grandkids! Scott and Tyrrell got engaged on the Fourth of July this past summer in east Tennessee. Beats By Dr Dre Lebron James
No clues to the cause of Papua New Guinea ferry sank
http://www.cheapbeatdbydrdre.com/ Dawn search for more than 100 people back Friday, including is considered students, missing a ferry sank in Papua New Guinea ship owner said it didn’t know what had happened.
So far, 238 survivors have been picked safety relief operations in an Australian-PNG MV Rabaul after sinking, on Thursday morning, the queen http://www.cheapbeatdbydrdre.com/.
Australia’s maritime organization (AMSA) said the ship about 16 kilometers down the coast and survivors reached Lae eastern town as early as Friday.
The company said it is still not clear why the ship sank. “We all know that the ferry captain conventional radio contact with another ship sink in the near future,” it said. “It seems like no signs of distress, in this communication http://www.cheapbeatdbydrdre.com/.”
Managers aware that some bad only when ferry earlier Thursday failed to appear in the satellite tracking system.
The queen Rabaul route every week no accident and 11 years experienced a service from the docks in November http://www.cheapbeatdbydrdre.com/.
Hiring a January; The unemployment rate is 8.3%
http://www.cheapbeatdbydrdre.com/ In a long-awaited stormy recruitment, the company added 243000 jobs in January, the entire economy, and looked at the pay scale and to be about more than anyone expected. The unemployment rate fell to 8.3%, the lowest level in three years.
The fastest job growth since last march and April. Before that, the last month, a strong recruitment, not including temporary census work months tilt, March 2006.
The unemployment rate down two incision from December. It off in a row of five months, the first occurred since 1994, two economic prosperity and decline the first two http://www.cheapbeatdbydrdre.com/.
The nasdaq composite index finished at 2000, the highest level since December, in the steep fall Internet stock craze. Money poured out of bonds, which is considered to be low risk than the stock, bond yields higher http://www.cheapbeatdbydrdre.com/.
The most impressive employment report echoed in the presidential campaign, Obama can obviously improve the election prospects. The unemployment rate fell put it exactly where it was in February 2009, a month after Obama took office http://www.cheapbeatdbydrdre.com/.
In family planning Komen reversal not to end the debate
http://www.cheapbeatdbydrdre.com/ Some cancer survivors and Susan g. Komen advocates say, have to pay more for the treatment of the effort to win back the fans, even in breast cancer in a reverse course organization’s controversial decision to end funding for family planning.
On Friday, modified the Komen organization policy said it would not any group fund is under investigation. The family planning is Stearn is currently studying on behalf of the cliff, R-Fla. Who wants to see the federal funds are used to pay for abortion services group. Komen provides funding for family planning, including nearly $700000 in 2011, and provide education and care for low-income women’s breast cancer.
“We want to the American public for the recent decision to women in our doubt we mission in life savings,” the foundation said in a statement. “The events of this week have been deeply uneasy, partners and our fans friends and all of us in the Susan g. Komen http://www.cheapbeatdbydrdre.com/.”
Jody Schoger breast cancer survivor, 57 years old, said Komen failed to integrate social media, picked up the story of family planning in the early days, is devastating. About 2 million breast cancer survivors in the United States, many young and technical skills http://www.cheapbeatdbydrdre.com/.