Brennan Boesch Swings and Hits
There are few, if any, conclusions we can draw based on a player’s first 50 major league plate appearances. In that sample, which covers 12 or 13 games, anything can happen. A player might hit with an inordinate number of men on base. He might face a string of weak pitchers. He might play two series against the Royals. Yet, after watching a handful of Brennan Boesch‘s 50 major league PA, including all four last night, I’m convinced of one thing. The man does not think it is his duty to take pitches.
The Tigers drafted Boesch with the 82nd pick of the 2006 draft. He had impressed at the University of California as a sophomore, hitting .355/.436/.567. His production dipped a bit in his junior year, but his star was still bright enough to warrant a third round selection. The Tigers signed him and them placed him in the New York-Penn League, where he hit .291/.344/.435 in 292 PA. He struggled through the next two seasons before finding his power strike at AA in 2009, slugging over .500 for the first time as a professional.
Something had changed for Boesch when he turned pro. In college he drew 53 walks in 574 PA, a 9.2% walk rate. That dropped immediately upon his pro debut. In 317 PA — more than he had accumulated during any of his college seasons — he walked 6.6 percent of the time. That number dropped even further during his first full season, to 4.2 percent. For his minor league career he walked 117 times in 1957 PA, 6 percent.
That hasn’t changed in the majors, where he’s walked just twice in his 50 PA, one of them intentional. So far Boesch has swung at 50 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. That is nearly double the league average rate. He swings at plenty of pitches in general, 66.2 percent, more than 20 percentage points above league average. It’s no wonder, then, that his swinging strike rate also ranks above league average.
Yet that hasn’t been all bad for Boesch so far. He has struck out only six times in those 50 PA, which amounts to a below average strikeout rate. Low strikeout and walk rates mean he’s putting the ball in play often. To his advantage, 35 percent of his balls in play have dropped for hits, which has propped up his .340 BA. Last year at AA Boesch hit .275, but had an insane BABIP of .390. He struck out a ton, though, 127 times in 527 AB, a 24.1 percent rate.
I’m not sure what to make of all this. It is, after all, just 50 PA, and only two of those have come against left-handed pitching (another peril of short samples). It is clear, though, that Boesch wants to swing the bat. He won’t find much success if he continues chasing so many pitches out of the zone, but as he settles into the league that rate should drop significantly. From the little I’ve seen of him, he seems like the kind of player who can survive on contact skills alone.
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As a Brennan Bosch owner, I pray he can become a poor man’s Kung Fu Panda
Right now in many ways he’s a poor man’s Young Vlad Guerrero.
Alot of the debate in the Detroit Tigers internet atmosphere seems to center on whether Boesch will be a flash in the pan like 2006 Brent Clevlen, or the left-handed version of Marcus Thames, to use an analogy that I read someone make the other day.
I fall somewhere in between, but still lean towards the Clevlen comparison. I suspect he’ll be more successful in the long run than Brent was, but 50 PA is still not enough for me to buy in on Boesch. I am enjoying what he has brought to the team thus far and enjoying the hot streak while it lasts, though. And if it continues for much longer he may well play one of the Tigers reserve players out of a roster spot when Carlos Guillen returns.
Without a more disciplined approach, I’m concerned that right now we’re not seeing much more than good fortune, although it also should be noted (SSSA) that he hit like crazy in a handful of games at AAA this year before being promoted.
Boesch is far different than either Thames or Clevlen. Most notably, his swing isn’t loopy, but compact and classic — Al Kaline-like. Of historical Tigers, his swing looks most like Jim Northrup. Some say he looks like Adam Dunn, but I think Boesch’s swing is more level.
Second, his swing produces mostly line drives, not just towering shots. That is the flaw with both Thames and Clevlen because of their loopy swings, so it is either feast or famine with them. That line-drive tendency will certainly help maintain his batting average.
Regardless, he makes Cabrera more valuable because its hard to pitch around him with power and average in back.
Never have been a huge fan of Boesch, he simply doesn’t walk enough and teams will adjust to the fact that he is straight killing first pitch fastballs.
HOWEVER, Leyland, much to his credit, is using him perfectly in a platoon situation with Raburn. He has ok range and a great arm and I’m starting think he could be a very successful platooned corner OF long-term.
In fact, I have to give Leyland credit this year so far, he’s platooning SS, C and LF heavily, as he should, and managing the bullpen well.
When are we going to get a story on the Tigers bullpen. Phenomenal this year. I wonder if Joel Zumaya’s 12:1 K/BB ratio is sustainable . . .
I’m not a big Boesch fan due to his aggressiveness. He’s swinging at everything and his contact rate will decrease the longer he stays in the bigs. His BB rate dropping from 9% in college to what it’s been in the minors is probably less of a product of anything he’s doing and more of a product of facing pitchers with better control in pro ball. Jeff Sackmann had a good look on that exact issue at THT a week or so ago.
I’d say he’s a LH Marcus Thames with better defense. So he’s got a bit more value than Thames had, but not much.
I’m mostly in agreement with this, but at this stage I’m not even sure enough that he can continue on this well for long enough to even declare him that. He’s shown power in the minors, but Thames was a home run machine there.
If he eventually becomes Thames with better defense, I’d be fine with that….assuming no better OFers come through the system/the better OF prospects they have don’t pan out.
I like what I’ve seen so far from Brennan. He seems to come up with a big hit when the Tigers need one.
I see next years starting outfield staying the way it was last night…Boesch in left, Jackson in center, and Maggs in right, and then in 2012 I see Wilkin Ramirez replacing Ordonez, and there you have the Tigers outfield of the future, hopefully for a very long future.
Brennan is simply fun to watch. No Inge like slow swing or half swing and he simply wants to bash the ball. He’s no K king Rob Deer, he’s young and a good batting coach will do wonders with him. Is Charley Lau still around? lol
2-3 with a HR and a double today against of the best lefties in baseball(CC), not too shabby. Don’t know how he’s going to turnout but he’s been a pleasant surprise to say the least.
theres a reason why leyland stuck this guy behind cabrera, in the lineup…
Given what Maddon just did in Tampa bay on consecutive nights makes this comment …. uh, interesting.
i like boesch. his swing reminds me of morneau. obviously im not comparing the 2, but i think boesch has a lot of potential.
Brennan thinks it’s mandatory to swing at the first pitch. Today 2 batters prior to
him walk and he still swings at the 1st pitch [ out of the strike zone ] Hopefully they can slow him down a bit because he has potential.