Comments on: Brewers Sign Hoffman to 2010 Deal http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/brewers-sign-hoffman-to-2010-deal/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Mon, 13 Feb 2012 00:21:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Andrew http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/brewers-sign-hoffman-to-2010-deal/#comment-101059 Andrew Tue, 06 Oct 2009 18:32:43 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9924#comment-101059 Yea, I agree with this. I don't think a closer outside of the really elite group I mentioned (Nathan, Rivera, Hoffman) deserves big bucks, especially not from a small market team. K-Rod was just obviously flawed though and he was on a clear downward trend. But you have to look at a business perspective too. I had a conversation with a Mets fan the other day where I pointed out the Mets could have both Bobby Abreu and Adam Dunn for what they paid K-Rod, and his response was the problem with the team was the closing, not the hitting. Well, If you're winning games by 5-6 runs then your closer problems aren't that big. It's a question of allocation of priorities. What Mets fans wanted was a closer, not a good use of their money. Yea, I agree with this. I don’t think a closer outside of the really elite group I mentioned (Nathan, Rivera, Hoffman) deserves big bucks, especially not from a small market team.

K-Rod was just obviously flawed though and he was on a clear downward trend. But you have to look at a business perspective too. I had a conversation with a Mets fan the other day where I pointed out the Mets could have both Bobby Abreu and Adam Dunn for what they paid K-Rod, and his response was the problem with the team was the closing, not the hitting. Well, If you’re winning games by 5-6 runs then your closer problems aren’t that big. It’s a question of allocation of priorities.

What Mets fans wanted was a closer, not a good use of their money.

]]> By: Kincaid http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/brewers-sign-hoffman-to-2010-deal/#comment-101023 Kincaid Tue, 06 Oct 2009 14:20:52 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9924#comment-101023 Do FanGraphs WAR have any consideration for leverage index for closers, or are their runs converted to wins with the same run-to-win conversion as if they were pitching in any other situation? I can't find any indication that they are treated differently in the series on WAR in the glossary, but maybe I missed it or that has changed. Do FanGraphs WAR have any consideration for leverage index for closers, or are their runs converted to wins with the same run-to-win conversion as if they were pitching in any other situation? I can’t find any indication that they are treated differently in the series on WAR in the glossary, but maybe I missed it or that has changed.

]]> By: Alex JN http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/brewers-sign-hoffman-to-2010-deal/#comment-101014 Alex JN Tue, 06 Oct 2009 12:48:51 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9924#comment-101014 Well, right, kicking and closing performance is very important, the issue is just that, because of the high-variance nature of kicking and closing, paying money for an established closer and actual performance by the closer aren't necessarily as strongly correlated as, say, spending money on other positions and getting performance on the positions. The Indians, led by saber-friendly Shapiro, seemed to cave to CW in signing Wood to an expensive deal (especially for them, with money tight) in response to Borowski's inconsistency the year before, but, like the Mets with K-Rod, they found that simply opening up the pocketbooks didn't solve their closer problem. Well, right, kicking and closing performance is very important, the issue is just that, because of the high-variance nature of kicking and closing, paying money for an established closer and actual performance by the closer aren’t necessarily as strongly correlated as, say, spending money on other positions and getting performance on the positions. The Indians, led by saber-friendly Shapiro, seemed to cave to CW in signing Wood to an expensive deal (especially for them, with money tight) in response to Borowski’s inconsistency the year before, but, like the Mets with K-Rod, they found that simply opening up the pocketbooks didn’t solve their closer problem.

]]> By: Andrew http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/brewers-sign-hoffman-to-2010-deal/#comment-100958 Andrew Tue, 06 Oct 2009 01:03:02 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9924#comment-100958 Yeah that too. A kicker in in football isn't that important or even the field that much but there are few things more frustrating then a kicker who consistently misses FGs/key PATs. An inconsistent closer is one of those things. Yeah that too. A kicker in in football isn’t that important or even the field that much but there are few things more frustrating then a kicker who consistently misses FGs/key PATs.

An inconsistent closer is one of those things.

]]> By: David http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/brewers-sign-hoffman-to-2010-deal/#comment-100954 David Tue, 06 Oct 2009 00:38:38 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9924#comment-100954 I think there's also a morale issue at play. Your starting pitchers and hitters aren't gonna be happy if they are consistently leaving the game with leads but your closer continually blows saves. Sure, according to the advanced metrics, Trevor Hoffman isn't even worth 2 wins more than a replacement level pitcher. But I kind of feel like if you had, I dunno, Miguel Batista closing out your games and blowing 10 saves a season - even if he's only "1.5 wins worse" than Hoffman, it sure doesn't *feel* that way to your pitchers and hitters. I think there’s also a morale issue at play. Your starting pitchers and hitters aren’t gonna be happy if they are consistently leaving the game with leads but your closer continually blows saves. Sure, according to the advanced metrics, Trevor Hoffman isn’t even worth 2 wins more than a replacement level pitcher. But I kind of feel like if you had, I dunno, Miguel Batista closing out your games and blowing 10 saves a season – even if he’s only “1.5 wins worse” than Hoffman, it sure doesn’t *feel* that way to your pitchers and hitters.

]]> By: Andrew http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/brewers-sign-hoffman-to-2010-deal/#comment-100943 Andrew Mon, 05 Oct 2009 23:46:41 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9924#comment-100943 It is standard closer overpay, but a closer's value isn't just in his WAR. A really dominant closer (i.e. Rivera, Nathan, and Hoffman) sells a lot of tickets and is a draw in and of itself. Those teams are also able to identify themselves with their closer and use that for marketing purposes. Having the all-time saves leader on the team is alone worth close to a million dollars in advertising and merchandising. Granted this is still money that would be better spent on a SP, but there is some logic to it and it's nowhere near as bad as the K-Rod deal. If you ask the average non-Padres fan to name a "great" player who was with the Padres for a long time they probably couldn't name anyone besides Hoffman, Gwynn, and Peavy. It is standard closer overpay, but a closer’s value isn’t just in his WAR. A really dominant closer (i.e. Rivera, Nathan, and Hoffman) sells a lot of tickets and is a draw in and of itself. Those teams are also able to identify themselves with their closer and use that for marketing purposes. Having the all-time saves leader on the team is alone worth close to a million dollars in advertising and merchandising.

Granted this is still money that would be better spent on a SP, but there is some logic to it and it’s nowhere near as bad as the K-Rod deal.

If you ask the average non-Padres fan to name a “great” player who was with the Padres for a long time they probably couldn’t name anyone besides Hoffman, Gwynn, and Peavy.

]]> By: JoeR43 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/brewers-sign-hoffman-to-2010-deal/#comment-100888 JoeR43 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 19:00:48 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9924#comment-100888 I've said it before on here. Hoffman's career BABIP is nice and low (probably as a result of his stuff), but it looks downright Ponsonian compared to Joe Nathan's. I’ve said it before on here. Hoffman’s career BABIP is nice and low (probably as a result of his stuff), but it looks downright Ponsonian compared to Joe Nathan’s.

]]> By: Logan http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/brewers-sign-hoffman-to-2010-deal/#comment-100884 Logan Mon, 05 Oct 2009 18:47:22 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9924#comment-100884 As a Mets fan, the part about this being the "standard closer overpay" couldn't ring truer, considering how much we wasted on "K"-rod (whose K/9 is dropping enough each year that he'll need a new nick name come 2011). Nice little bit of analysis on the batted ball stats. I often wondered how much control pitcher's had of IFFB. This was pretty enlightening. The mantra of this site should be "Leave the writing to the Daves". As a Mets fan, the part about this being the “standard closer overpay” couldn’t ring truer, considering how much we wasted on “K”-rod (whose K/9 is dropping enough each year that he’ll need a new nick name come 2011).

Nice little bit of analysis on the batted ball stats. I often wondered how much control pitcher’s had of IFFB. This was pretty enlightening. The mantra of this site should be “Leave the writing to the Daves”.

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