Comments on: Brewing A Contract For Sheets

By: Rob

Rob — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 12:15:51 +0000

BrewCrew Ball includes Capuano-he won’t be back at that salary. Counsell has been bought out. That frees up another $5m or so.

By: Big Mike

Big Mike — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 17:06:03 +0000

Eric,

Got an Email address where we can take this discussion offline? I’m at savannahseniors@yahoo.com

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 17:02:59 +0000

Mike,

That was more for my book, “Bridging the Statistical Gap,” which is designed for fans interested in initially learning about sabermetrics. Just showing new ways to evaluate players other than W-L. Not really predictive along the same lines as the analyses we do here each day.

By: Big Mike

Big Mike — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 17:01:13 +0000

Eric, this is a bit off topic, but you once did the Seidman Starting Pitcher Effectiveness Register. Could that be used here and applied predictively? Have you updated it through 2008? Thanks!

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 16:27:02 +0000

Jon,

Yep, this is what most projection systems do, like PECOTA, etc. You get the rosters, calculate the WAR, and add it up.

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 16:26:29 +0000

Yes, because on the flipside, for someone like Sabathia, we add a half-win after knowing his expected innings because we know he will log those innings as opposed to a reliever. With Sheets, no such assurance, so it’s either he does not get the 0.25-0.5 wins added for pitching the innings, or he loses a little bit. I wouldn’t usually dock anyone anything, but he is an injury risk, a serious one, just like Rich Harden. With a guy like Sabathia, you pretty much know you’ll get at least 200 innings.

With Sheets, he may be projected for 180, but I’m still not comfortable, and if I’m drawing up a contract, that’s what I would value him at; 3.25 wins instead of 3.5. It isn’t to say he will make that much less money with just a quarter of a win, but if you had 2 pitchers, both +3.5 wins, one a significant injury risk, the other much more durable, I’ll pay the durable guy more money every day of the week.

By: b_rider

b_rider — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 16:21:45 +0000

Is it fair to dock his value .25 for durability when you are already taking his expected IP into account?

By: jon

jon — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 13:56:22 +0000

I’m curious,

this has nothing to do with salaries but could you use this type of analysis with the 2009 opening day rosters to predict which teams have the highest wins over replacement (based on your 2009 projections) and hence the best chance of winning in 2009.

By: dan

dan — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 07:09:56 +0000

They supposedly offered $20 a year to Sabathia, so maybe they’re willing to push the payroll into the 90′s or over 100mill?

By: Jack

Jack — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 04:07:20 +0000

Positions that the Brewers need to fill:
Bench OF – The Brewers only have 3 legitimate OFs on the roster right now, with Kapler leaving (I don’t consider Gwynn to be a legitimate ML OF. He’s dangerously close to replacement level).

3B – Either Mat Gamel has to make a Braun-esque splash or the Brewers need to find a platoon mate for Hall.

RP – Much of the bullpen left, and I think that signing a bullpen ace may be of more help than signing an ace starter. Going after a #2 type and some bullpen help may fit the aforementioned goal better than getting a guy like Sheets.

Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if payroll increases again. Attanasio seems willing to spend money, so I think he’d be willing to make a bit of a splash by signing Sheets (or a similar contract) and maybe piling on another 10 million dollars.