I had the chance to watch all of Cabrera’s starts in winter league baseball this year, and the dropoff in his normal velocity was very visible. When the Tigres del Licey club acquired Cabrera and Denny Bautista from the Estrellas de Oriente in mid-season, I remember to mention repeatedly on the Licey broadcasts that Cabrera had arm issues at the end of the year with the Orioles. At first we argued on the ESPN broadcasts that he was still probably building a little arm strength, or pacing himself because he was going to be key on the post-season. Eventually, Cabrera’s fastball established velocity in winter-ball was aound 90-92, topping at 93-94 on rare ocassions. His patterns were pretty much the same, so even though the possibility of “a different pitching plan” was discussed (Juan Marichal floated the idea during the broadcasts) to me it was clear that Cabrera was working with diminished velocity.

Since Cabrera pitched very well during the Round Robin playoffs (4R, 0ER, 14/6 K/BB ratio in 14 IP) the fastball velocity issue was hardly mentioned or noticed by the media in the Dominican.

But it was real, and it’s an issue since winter ball.

the Orioles used to keep him out of srping training drills to avoid him getting hurt–or hurting someone else. watching him run is akin to wathcing a baby giraffe find its legs. his sac bunt yesterday was the first time in 16 at bats he’s ever made contact. watching him field is painful.

his lack of athleticism leads to his robotic delivery; he basically is pitching from memory. he has no muscle memory, so every time he throws a pitch it’s like it’s the first time he’s ever done it; nothing is natural to him. when he can concentrate on just what he’s doing, he can be dominating. if ANYTHING disturbs his concentration–forget it. baserunners to him are fingernails on a chalkboard.

it was typical yesterday, and i called it to the folks around me in our section. good first inning, then in the second Werth reached on a single. he coaxed a ground ball out of Raul Ibanez, but 2B Anderson Hernandez booted the routine double play ball. Cabrera then walked the next batter on four pitches and then walked in a run. he then allowed 46-year old Jamie Moyer to his a sac fly.

anyway, i digress. here are my beliefs on Cabrera:

1) Cabrera did not do steroids
2) His lack of athelticism keeps him from being able to repeat any delivery
2) His injury from the end of last season was not properly diagnosed/treated, and he will not pitch 60 innings for the Nats this season.

Cabrera’s fastball
2005: 96.2
2006: 94.8
2007: 94.3
2008: 92.6

Olsen’s fastball
2006: 90.9
2007: 90.1
2008: 87.8

Looks like speedy outfielders aren’t the only thing Bowden had a crush on.