Cain Watch #3
This is something I began over at Statistically Speaking but it makes more sense to continue here at Fangraphs. Giants pitcher Matt Cain had an historically unlucky season in 2007, posting statistics similar to, if not better than, most NL starting pitchers. And yet, at the end of the season, all he had was a 7-16 record with no true consolation prize. Via my Net Luck Rating statistic–which measures the quality of decisions and no-decisions by evaluating each start as a separate commodity–it was the unluckiest season of the decade. Based on the quality of his starts and his frequency of well-pitched games Cain would have gone 16-7 in his decisions if pitchers were awarded wins for every well-pitched decision and losses for every poorly pitched decision.
Based on how bleak the outlook appears for the Giants I have every reason to believe the string of bad luck will continue. That being said I have decided to track each of his starts. To read the recaps of his first two starts, click any of the links below:
Cain’s third start of the season proved to be the perfect example of his lack of luck. Here is the graph of the game:
To recap, Cain pitched 6.2 innings, surrendering three hits and two earned runs; he also walked three and struck out five. At the time of his departure in the seventh inning Cain had a 5-2 lead. Oh, and do you see that little red dot in the graph above in between the sixth and seventh innings? If so, you read correctly: Matt Cain also hit a home run in this game.
After Cain’s departure, Jumpin’ Jack Taschner (it’s a fun nickname, admit it) hit Rico Washington before Merkin Valdez got Ryan Ludwick to fly out. After seven full innings the Giants led 5-2. Some Tyler Walker, Brad Hennessey, and Erick Threets action later and the Giants found themselves extra-inning losers by a final score of 8-7. Sigh. Poor Matt Cain.
In terms of WPA, Cain contributed .286 in the pitching department and .190 in the hitting department; for the game that adds up to an accumulative WPA of .476. Considering that the winning team will add up to a .500 and that the Giants eventually lost the game, the team had to do a lot wrong to lose. A cursory scan of the bullpen WPA for the game supports that: Threets chimed in with a -.292, Walker with a -.318, and Hennessey with a -.434. The efforts of these three not only erased Cain’s efforts but doubled over in the negative direction.
This was definitely a game Cain should have gone onto win but will go down as a too-familiar great start but no-decision. For the season, Cain is now at: 3 GS, 16.2 IP, 13 H, 6 ER, 12 BB, 15 K, 3.24 ERA. Based on his WPA, Clutch, and WPA/LI Cain is currently very comparable to Johan Santana. Despite pitching well in two games, and poorly in the other, he is 0-1. The saga continues.
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The Giants used to have a this strategy with Jason Schmidt, where they’d leave him in for like 140 pitches so they wouldn’t have to use the bullpen. Maybe they need to leave Cain in there for that long too!
Sarcasm aside, the walks are not good and they’re really cutting his starts short. When you’re tied with Daniel Cabrera in BB/9 you’re going to be in trouble even if you do have a good offense behind you.
Yeah, I would tend to think his walks will come down. In his first start he was charged with four walks and was squeezed on three of them. I didn’t catch his second start visually but I know his first start’s walks were a bit deceiving. I definitely agree it prevents him from staying in the game.
I really started to think about this – imagine if Cain pitches in these terrible conditions for another four years or so, he could end up with a W-L record close to 20-25 games under .500, and yet he is just unlucky, not necessarily pitching poorly at all. Last year was ridiculous.
Fun factoid – last year Cain had 18 starts wherein he gave up 2 or less runs… and went 5-7 with 6 no decisions in them.
I think the third book in the Seidman series should detail every start from 2007 for Cain. It’s rediculous if you watch some of them.
Can you imagine if Cain had the temper of Kyle Farnsworth? He would have broken his hand punching walls at least 16 times last year.
Over in Giants land, we love this kid. We are all also extremely worried that he is going to show up in the locker room one day and start shooting.