Comments on: Cano’s Curious Case

By: dan

dan — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 04:54:10 +0000

Last year through 88 games Cano was hitting .269 /.308 /.417 and hit .351 /.406 /.573 over the rest of the season.

By: Anthony

Anthony — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 15:57:46 +0000

i think those projections are way low. i’m not sure how they’re calculated or how accurate they are, but they are treated as fact on this site and i just don’t understand why

By: obsessivegiantscompulsive

obsessivegiantscompulsive — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 14:55:29 +0000

HR/FB%, according to Shandler’s group’s research, is a ratio where the hitter should regress to his historic mean. Same with BABIP. And, of course, both are both very depressed for him this season versus his prior seasons. Of course, those could have been inflated over his “true” mean, so there is that too, but he’s so low, I would think he has to have a bounce back next season, as well as, as noted, the second half of 2008.

I find that ZIPS projections generally are lower than I would expect, at least from the Giants standpoint, that’s why I don’t follow that projection much. Are you aware of any analysis of how that system works? I’ll give it another chance if analysis shows it works well. That’s why Marcel is so much higher, as it is simply based on Cano’s past few years, when he was doing much better.

Of course, the main reason he has done poorly is because I lucked out and was able to select him in my fantasy league’s dispersal draft (two teams GM’s left/unable to continue; keeper league). :^D

By: taro

taro — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 05:24:44 +0000

Well, it does look like hes been unlucky this season so far.

Crazy as it sounds I see some postive signs, as hes increased his FB%, increased his contact% and LD%, thus continuing his improvement in eye ratio.

The HR/FB%, IsoP, and BABIP are really the ratios that are well below career norms. It could be that the extra contact is hurting him in the power department..but I doubt that since his LD% has also improved. Seems his OPS right now is at least 60 points below what it should be.

I wouldn’t be all that suprised to see Cano continue to tear the cover off the ball in the 2nd half, and follow it up with a career year in ’09.