Last week, we heard the official word that the New York Yankees had acquired negotiation rights to Japanese infielder Hiroyuki Nakajima. In order for teams to win rights to negotiate with players leaving Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) league, they must participate in a silent auction called the posting system. The winning bid goes to the NPB team currently in control of the player’s rights, unless the team cannot sign a major or minor league contract in 30 days.

The Nakajima posting seemed to go by with little fanfare. The Yankees won the rights to negotiate with Nakajima, bidding a paltry $2.5M, and promptly announced their intentions to make him their second utility infielder.

To me, it seems pretty clear the Yankees had no expectations of actually winning the bid. Not only do they lack a position for Nakajima, they have already been rumored to be seeking a trade partner. On top of that, their bid was low. I mean: Seriously low:

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A pitcher even finer than even these two upstanding gents!

Quick! There’s no time to waste!

Name the five best FIP- seasons in the history of MLB. (Minimum, a scant 20 IP.)

I’d imagine your list includes Eric Gagne‘s crazy 2003 and Pedro Martinez‘s nutso 1999 season. And you’d be correct. But there’s another modern-day pitcher you’d have only guessed if you had cleverly looked at the title of this post:

1) Ed Cushman, 10 FIP- (1884, year of our lord)
2) Henry Porter, 13 FIP- (1884)
3) Eric Gagne, 20 FIP- (2003)
4) Sergio Romo, 25 FIP- (2011)
5) Pedro Martinez, 30 FIP- (1999)

I imagine there are a number of baseball fans who, like myself, had not even heard of Sergio Romo until they made him their setup man while playing Baseball Mogul 2008.

We’ll learn his name because he might be one of the greatest late-blooming relievers in the history of the game.
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On the same day he took home the National League Comeback Player of the Year Award, Lance Berkman was given the day off in favor of Allen Craig. This raised a few eyebrows, as Berkman had started and hit in the middle of the order in each of the Cardinals’ first eight postseason games. But in Craig, the Cardinals had an apt replacement, and perhaps the best bench player in this year’s postseason.

Craig displayed the light tower power that he is capable of in his second trip to the plate last night, unloading on a Randy Wolf pitch and taking it to out deep to right field. There was talk of the wind blowing out to right field last night, but while the home run from Matt Holliday may have qualified as wind-aided, Craig’s blast probably gets out on any day. It’s nothing to new to Craig.

The quintessential player without a position, St. Louis has seemingly not known what to do with Craig throughout his professional career. Drafted in the eighth round in 2006 out of the University of California, Berkeley, Craig saw time at shortstop, second and third base in his pro debut that summer. In 2007, he consolidated to third base, but saw time at first base as well. He carried both of those over into 2008, but also added 17 games in left field to the mix. In 2009, he made his Triple-A debut and for the first time his primary position was left field rather than third, though he saw time at all four corner spots. In 2010, the Cardinals could no longer deny his bat — his wOBA’s from stop to stop from 2007-2009 read .400, .450, .386 and .400 — and he made the Opening Day roster. But after garnering only 20 plate appearances in the RedBirds’ first 17 games — all as an outfielder or pinch-hitter — he was sent back to Memphis. There, for the first time ever, he didn’t play even one inning at third base, though his blurb in this year’s Baseball America Prospect Handbook said he was still taking grounders at third. This year, the experimentation continued, as Craig was thrown back into the keystone mix. He started once at second in Memphis, and started eight times at second for the big Birds in May. Ultimately, he moved back to the outfield, spelling Berkman, Holliday and Jon Jay during the second half.

The lack of a true position has conspired to turn Craig into a late bloomer. But blooming he is. He sowed the seeds in the second half last year, as he put up a respectable but not flashy .284/.330/.484 in 103 plate appearances. The total was low, because while he started 24 games, he only finished seven of them, as the ever-tinkering Tony La Russa was nearly always on hand with a defensive replacement. This season, that ratio more or less persisted, as Craig finished only 20 of the 62 games he started. But he keeps turning up in the lineup, and his bat is why.

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Join me! The rabbit hole is suspiciously warm.

The Tampa Bay Rays are now down 1-2 in the ALDS, placing their hopes for a Rangers rout on the shoulders of rookie right-hander Jeremy Hellickson. The so-called Hellboy takes the mound at 2:07 p.m. ET today, facing Rangers lefty Matt Harrison.

The match-up, to say the least, favors the Rangers. Not only does Harrison have the edge in FIP (3.52), xFIP (3.85), and SIERA (3.94), he has the added bonus of a seemingly normal BABIP (.290) and LOB% (72.3%). Hellickson has only an ERA edge (2.95); the rest suggests impending doom: 4.44 FIP, 4.72 xFIP, 4.63 SIERA, .223 BABIP, and 82.0% LOB%.

Well, Hellickson does have at least one major thing going for him: A serious and unusual strikeout regression.
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The MLB season is drawing to a close, which means it’s about time for rampant speculation about next year’s free agents. One of my favorite off-season storylines is that of the east Asian baseball markets both giving and absorbing talent.

This past off season, we witnessed the likes of Chad Tracy, Wladimir Balentien, and Micah Hoffpauer head west to the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) league while Japan sent Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Ryan Vogelsong Minnesota and California’s way.

Let’s look at the present NPB league statistics, so we can start writing our wishlists and dreaming about next year’s rosters.

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Every season some players have a power breakout (Granderson) or meltdown (Dunn). I decided to look at the players with the highest and lowest ISO increases this season and the reasons behind the changes for a few of the players.

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Tonight, Stephen Strasburg returned from Tommy John surgery to make his season debut for the Nationals. Here is a look at his Pitch FX speeds from tonight compared to one of his starts from last season. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s funny how quickly we – and by we, I mean us fans – can shift our attention from one top prospect to the next. I like to call this phenomenon the “Shiny New Toy Syndrome”, as we become enamored with the Next Big Thing coming up from the minors and slowly forget the prospects we were falling for a week earlier. Prospects are showered with attention when they reach the majors and their performance is analyzed from 10 different angles. But once those players become established, they fall off the radar — and our attention shifts to the next big prospect. In many ways, prospects are like Christmas presents: anticipation builds until Christmas morning arrives; but within two weeks, the presents are forgotten and tossed in the toy bucket with everything else.

While Michael Pineda is currently dominating the prospect chatter, I want to shift our attention back to a top prospect who made his debut a little less than a year ago: Starlin Castro.

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Cleveland fans have a rough life. It seems like all their sports success is tainted with pain: the Cavs were good in the 2000s, but then LeBron James dissed them on national television; the Browns were good in the 1980s, but they consistently lost in heart-breaking fashion in the playoffs and have only had three winning seasons since; and the Indians were great in the late 1990s, but haven’t won a World Series since 1948. There are many markets in the running for the title of “most miserable fans,” and while I won’t go so far as to crown a winner, I think Cleveland has a case to be considered among the best (worst?) of them.

So it should come as no surprise that after the Indians’ hot start, which has included an eight-game winning streak and a sweep of the Boston Red Sox at home, some Cleveland fans are already talking about being buyers at the trade deadline and making a run for the playoffs. While obviously it’s waaay too early in the season to be making such pronouncements, is there reason for hope in Cleveland this season?

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Since the Minnesota Twins signed him for $180,000 as a product of the now defunct draft-and-follow system back in 2002, Evan Meek has both tantalized and frustrated his employers. But now, with his fourth organization, Meek may soon inherit a prominent role in the ‘pen.

A stocky 6-0, 220 pound right-hander known for touching the mid-90′s with his fastball, Meek was nevertheless released by the Twins in 2005 after he walked 36 batters in 18 innings in the Low-A Midwest League. The San Diego Padres picked up the Bellevue (Wash.) Community College product, stuck him in the starting rotation and watched him whiff (8.7 K/9) and walk (4.8 BB/9) the yard in the High-A California League in 2006. In August of ’06, Tampa Bay acquired Meek as the PTBNL in a deal for Russell Branyan. Shifted to relief in 2007, he punched out 9.3 batters per nine frames in the Double-A Southern League, but walked 4.6 per nine as well.

Tampa didn’t place Meek on the 40-man roster after the season, leaving him subject to the Rule V Draft. The Pittsburgh Pirates, impressed with Meek’s work in the Arizona Fall League, snagged him with the second overall pick in the Rule V proceedings.

For the first month of the 2008 season, Meek flailed to the tune of seven K’s, 12 walks and three wild pitches in 13 innings for Pittsburgh. He was behind in the count before you could say “Marmol”–Meek’s first pitch strike percentage was 44.3, compared to the 58 percent major league average.

Still, the Pirates were intrigued enough to work out a trade with the Rays so that Meek could be sent down to the minors. In 57.1 combined frames between Double-A Altoona and Triple-A Indianapolis, he punched out eight hitters per nine innings and induced a ground ball 60 percent of the time. Most importantly, Meek issued just 2.7 walks per nine innings.

Last season, Meek began the year back at Indy but got the big league call in late April. When he took the mound, the outcome of the game was already largely determined–Meek’s Leverage Index was 0.63, lowest among regular Pirates relievers. Showcasing 93 MPH heat, a hard 90 MPH cutter and low-80′s breaking stuff, Meek had 8.04 K/9 in 47 IP, burning worms at a 52.1% rate. But alas, control remained elusive. He walked 5.55 per nine frames, posting a 4.18 expected FIP (xFIP). A left oblique strain shut Meek down in mid-August.

In 2010, the 27-year-old has been a revelation. Sure, he has been lucky to post a 0.69 ERA in 26 innings pitched–he’s eventually going to surrender a home run, and he isn’t likely to strand 85.2 percent of base runners all season. But Meek has legitimately been one of the best ‘pen arms in the majors. With his fastball up a tick in velocity, he has 9.35 K/9, 2.42 BB/9 and a 52.2 GB%, owning a 2.83 xFIP that ranks within shouting distance of San Francisco’s Brian Wilson (2.77 xFIP) and Kansas City’s Joakim Soria (2.71 xFIP). That’s not to suggest that he’s suddenly on the same plane as the Giants’ mohawked stopper or the Mexicutioner, but Meek is pitching marvelously.

While he’s doing a slightly better job of locating this season, raising his percentage of pitches within the strike zone from 51.9 percent in ’09 to 53.1 percent in 2010, the big difference is that Meek is getting batters to chase his stuff off the plate for the first time. As a Rule V selection, Meek garnered outside swings just 13.2 percent of the time. Last year, his O-Swing was still below average, at 22.1 percent. But in 2010, he’s getting hitters to hack at 28.2 percent of his out-of-zone offerings.

As Meek continues to mow down hitters, he’s earning the trust of Pirates manager John Russell. In April, Meek’s Leverage Index was a custodian-level 0.66. But in May, his 1.66 LI trails only closer Octavio Dotel. He’s also being deployed often for multi-inning stints, with seven of his 19 appearances lasting a full two frames. It took a while, but Pittsburgh’s patience with Meek is paying dividends.

It hasn’t been a great season for the Toronto Blue Jays, but the club keeps tantalizing fans with glimpses of the future promise. Sophomore southpaw Brett Cecil took a perfect game into the seventh inning last night against the Cleveland Indians. It was the fourth time this season (in 27 games) that a Toronto starter has taken a no-hitter into the sixth inning of a game; Shaun Marcum, Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero, and Cecil have all flirted with brilliance this season, and Marcum is the oldest of the quartet at 28.

For Cecil, the perfect game ended in the seventh inning with one out. He experienced a rare lack of control and walked both Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo. He then retired Austin Kearns before giving up a single into left field off the bat of veteran Jhonny Peralta.

In just his third MLB start of the year, Cecil pitched eight innings, allowed one hit, walked two batters and struck out 10, which was a career high (in 21 MLB appearances). He mixed his four-pitch repertoire effectively and dials his fastball up to 93 mph, when needed.

On the season, he has positive pitch-type values on his slider, change-up, and curveball. He’s struggled with his fastball command in his previous two starts but it was much better on Monday night. The lefty struck out batters with the fastball (four), change-up (three), and slider (three). Veteran catcher John Buck was impressed with Cecil’s performance.

“The operative word here is ‘pitched,’” Buck said to MLB.com. “He was locating his fastball in and out. He was aggressive with a whole array of pitches, and makes it tough for hitters to sit on one pitch or on one location. He’s able to spread the plate.”

The 23-year-old pitcher was rushed to the Majors in ’09 when injuries depleted the Jays’ starting rotation and minor league depth. He made 17 starts and posted a 4.68 xFIP in 93.1 innings. Cecil was sent to triple-A to begin the 2010 season after he was slowed by a cut on his throwing hand in spring training.

An injury to veteran Brian Tallet brought him back up to the Majors in late April. Through three starts, he has a 3.30 xFIP, as well as a walk rate of 1.74 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.15 K/9. His MLB numbers don’t agree right now but Cecil is a solid ground-ball pitcher with a worm-burning rate in the minors just shy of 60%. Last night, he induced nine ground-ball outs compared to four fly-ball outs.

Perhaps due, in part, to his late start to the season, Cecil has tired early in games. According to the Sportsnet broadcast last night, he has allowed a .118 batting average during his first 75 pitches in each of his three starts but an average of more than .500 from pitch 76 and upward.

Cecil was a supplemental first round selection (38th overall) during the 2007 draft. The left-hander was a closer at the University of Maryland before he was moved to the starting rotation by the Jays organization. The club has also had success with converting college closers David Bush (now with Milwaukee) of Wake Forest University and Marcum of Southwest Missouri State U.

One thing Cecil might want to watch in future starts, though, is his work from the stretch. He pitched out of the stretch just once in the game – during the seventh inning – and his pitching grips were fully visible in his glove, which was open to the base runner at second base.

Yeah, it’s only been one start, but I want to talk up Ian Kennedy… something I’ve actually been doing since he was traded from the New York Yankees to the Arizona Diamondbacks this past off-season.

The right-handed Kennedy made his National League debut on Wednesday night against the San Diego Padres in Arizona. He gave up three runs (all in the second inning on a three-run homer to Scott Hairston) and six hits but showed big-league stuff by striking out eight batters. The key for Kennedy is clear: command the fastball. With a fastball in the 86-91 mph range, it sat right around 87-89 mph on Wednesday night. The majority of his eight strikeouts came on change-ups (four), followed by fastballs (three) and a curveball (one). This is encouraging because it shows that Kennedy had two out-pitches going on the night, which will really help him given his average fastball velocity.

The bulk of his six hits allowed came on the fastball (four). Kennedy has thrown a slider in the past but I did not see much of one against the Padres; he utilized a fourth pitch, but it looked to be more of a cutter, which caused a number of lazy fly balls. In this game, his control looked better than his command and he was consistently around the strike zone.

There are certainly some things to work on for his next start, which will likely come against the Los Angeles Dodgers’ powerful, yet youthful, lineup. Along with improving his fastball command, it would be nice to see Kennedy induce some more ground balls, and also be more economical with his pitches; He had thrown 82 (68% for strikes) after just four innings and finished with 94 pitches thrown. Fittingly, his final out of the game came on a strikeout of another promising, young player in Kyle Blanks.

Kennedy was removed for a pinch hitter in the bottom of the fifth inning with the D-Backs trailing 3-1 in the game. It turned out to be a smart move, as pinch-hitter Rusty Ryal singled for Kennedy and later scored in the inning. The D-Backs tied the game up in the fifth and stormed back to win the game 5-3. FYI: Ryal hit was an opposite-field single, and the rookie had an impressive pinch-hit at-bat.

The Giant’s Brian Wilson is a fun player. He looks more rock star than ballplayer, what with his mop hair, tattoos and tight pants. He even brings his own brand pyrotechnics to the mound with a blazing fastball that at times has been clocked in the triple-digits. While Wilson accumulated 41 saves for the Giants last year, those saves came with a bloated 4.62 ERA. His 3.93 FIP indicates that he pitched a little better than his ERA, but that is not what you would by and large hope for from your closer.

This year, Wilson has emerged from being a .6 win player to a 2.3 win relief ace. 2+ wins represents the upper echelon for relievers. So why the improvement?

Wilson’s heater has long been his meal ticket. His average velocity has seen a nice bump from this year to last, from 95.7 to 96.5 MPH.

Not only has he been able to crank up the heat, but perhaps more importantly the pitch also has considerably more movement than before. Looking at his Pitch F/x numbers, Wilson’s fastball used to be straight as an arrow, averaging just less than half an inch of horizontal movement. This season, Wilson’s fastball has much more tail, with -3.5 inches of horizontal movement. It’s probably no coincidence that batters went from slugging .390 against Wilson in 2008 to just .301 this season.

What’s more, Wilson has improved upon his control. Last season he walked a little over 4 batters per nine innings, this season he’s down to about 3.4 per nine.

With an enhancement in ‘life’ to his fastball and increased control of the pitch, “B-Weez” has blossomed into one of the game’s best closers. Giant fans haven’t enjoyed this kind of “Smoke on the Water” in quite some time.

It’s never good when a team loses its No. 1 catcher. But it’s especially bad timing for the Texas Rangers organization with the club 4.5 games behind Los Angeles for first in the AL West division and narrowly (0.5 games up on Boston) leading the Wild Card race. To this point, Jarrod Saltalamacchia has started 71% of the club’s 116 games (and the rate was far worse prior to August). Rookie back-up catcher Taylor Teagarden has started just 34 games behind the plate (29%). I would argue, though, that the loss of Saltalamacchia to right arm soreness/numbness is not a loss at all.

Manager Ron Washington has favored Saltalamacchia to a fault. The 24-year-old catcher has an offensive line of .236/.293/.375 with nine homers in 280 at-bats. His putrid on-base percentage is hurt by both his low batting average and his hack-tastic tendencies at the plate, where he has posted a 7.3 BB%. Saltalamacchia has also posted a lousy strikeout rate at 34.3 K%, the fourth highest K rate in the Majors amongst players with 250+ at-bats. His wOBA is .290, the 23rd worst rate in the Majors.

In truth, a catcher’s offensive contributions are really a bonus. It’s on defense where a backstop really needs to shine. Unfortunately for the Rangers, Saltalamacchia’s glove may be worse than his bat. Amongst catchers with more than 500 innings behind the plate, the Texas catcher is second in errors with seven (and first in the AL). His game calling/receiving skills are nothing to write home about and his range is at the bottom of the barrel. Saltalamacchia has also caught just 19 of the 80 runners trying to steal against him, good for a caught-stealing rate of 24%.

The truth is that, despite showing encouraging improvements, the Rangers pitching staff can still use all the help it can get – and we’ve seen how defense can positively impact results thanks to the presence of rookie Elvis Andrus at shortstop. Saltalamacchia has never been a good fielder, and he probably never will be… But he needs to show something on offense to justify his playing time.

On the other hand, Teagarden has been left to rot on the bench, as Washington tries to single-handedly ruin a young player’s career. What excuse is there for playing a promising rookie only a handful of times during a full Major League season? When he was drafted, Teagarden was widely considered the best defensive catcher in college baseball. His defense made him a sure-fire Major Leaguer, even if he failed to hit (You know, along the lines of what Saltalamacchia has produced this season).

No, Teagarden’s line of .198/.264/.373 is not encouraging, but he’s had absolutely no chance to get into a hitting rhythm. Prior to August and Saltalamacchia’s injury, Teagarden had started back-to-back games only once all year. As the Rangers’ No. 1 catcher in August, Teagarden has hit .200/.314/.533 in 30 at-bats. He’s finally gotten a chance to show his above-average power with three home runs. After walking just three times from May to July, he has five walks in August and is again showing the above-average patience that he showed in the minors. In a very small sample size, Teagarden has shown glimpses of things that Saltalamacchia has proven he does not possess.

Normally, we joke that a manager’s overuse of a pitcher has caused an arm to fall off. In this case, it appears that Ron Washington has caused a catcher’s arm to all but fall off. In all seriousness, though, while Teagarden is far from being the second coming, one can only hope that Texas takes this time to realize that there is life beyond Saltalamacchia.

What if I told you that Scott Feldman has had the most effective cut fastball in all of baseball this year — more so than Mariano Rivera and Roy Halladay‘s, would you believe me? At least according to the numbers, Scott Feldman has. I have to be honest, I knew next to nothing about Feldman until I found myself goofing around on the Pitch Value leader-boards yesterday afternoon. As a refresher, the pitch values use linear weights by count and by event and then breaks it down by each pitch type so that you can see in runs the actual effectiveness of each pitch. (You can read more about how they work here).

Getting to the fun stuff, Scott Feldman‘s cutter has been worth 22.6 runs, making it the third-most effective offering in baseball among starting pitchers. The only pitch that has been more effective has been Tim Lincecum‘s change-up at a ridiculous 28.2 runs, and Clayton Kershaw‘s fastball, at 23.5 runs. What makes this development a little more interesting is that Feldman just started using the pitch a year ago — throwing it 13.4% of the time. He’s honed his craft and is now throwing the pitch 30.4% of the time. Only three other starting pitchers throw the cutter more often, and those pitchers are Brian Bannister, Doug Davis and Roy Halladay.

Just two seasons ago, Feldman was a frequent rider of the Oklahoma City – Fort Worth shuttle. A former 30th round pick, he was just a so-so side-arming, sinker/slider ROOGY. He completely remade himself last year, throwing from a 3/4 arm slot rather than sidearm, mostly working with the sinker. The results were less than spectacular — a 5.35 FIP over 25 starts. In continuance with that remaking, this year Feldman started leaning heavily on the cutter to compliment his sinker and help him counterbalance southpaw hitters. Check out his crazy reverse platoon splits that have come as a result:

The overall results have also have been good; Feldman has 11 wins and an ERA of 4.01. Alright, so those baseball card numbers are a bit deceiving. His FIP is 4.57 and he’s still striking out less than 5 batters per nine. That’s still good for 2 wins above replacement so far this season. Whether or not this is something sustainable is very questionable given the low K totals, but I find it fascinating that a Quad-A reliever can transform himself into a half decent starter. It’s amazing what a willingness to learn can do for a pitcher.

First of all, let me say thanks to David Appelman for inviting me to the party. It’s an honor to be a part of a team of such great writers, hopefully I can maintain the standard of excellence they’ve set. Let’s just get this out of the way right now: I am a Cardinal fan, so please indulge me a bit this morning as sing the praises of the best Cardinal rookie to come along since Phat Albert.

Colby Rasmus is well on his way to winning the NL Rookie of the Year, but early on in the season, it looked like he might have been quickly shuttled back down to AAA. After his first thirty games, Colby was hitting for a meager .263/.343/.379 line as the Cardinals’ 4th outfielder. The isolated plate discipline looked good, but Colby wasn’t really showing the “five tools” he was hyped for in the minors, particularly power. It seemed all too often Colby was watching strike three go by, and his manager preached to him to take a more aggressive approach.

Normally you cringe when you hear a manager telling a kid to stop walking and start hacking, but at least to this point, it’s working for Colby. Since 5/15, Colby is hitting .283/.302/.531, and in the month of June the young Mr. Rasmus is hitting .375/.375/.625. I guess when you’re beating the living hell out of the ball, what’s the point in taking a walk?

Looking at his plate discipline stats, you’ll find he’s no Pablo Sandoval. He does swing at more pitches in the zone than your average bear — the average Z-Swing% is 65.8%, Colby’s is 74.9%, but he’s not just swinging away at any and everything thrown in his direction. His O-Swing% is 24%, which is major league average. In the minors, Colby walked in 11.2% of his plate appearances, so the ability to draw walks is there, at least in potential.

For another oddity, Colby also has reached double-digits in stolen bases in each of his seasons in the minors dating back to his Appy League days, but only has one steal so far this season. I think that speaks more to his team’s philosophy than on Colby’s ability.

What we’re seeing is a 22-year old kid just starting to figure out how good he is, and it’s only going to get better from here. Colby currently has a .336 wOBA and has played freakishly good defense, with a UZR of 12. His rest of season ZiPS projection calls for a modest .323 wOBA which he could easily surpass. Assuming he’s not this amazing at defense, but is at least a +1 win fly catcher in center as his minor league numbers suggest, and we’re talking about not just the Senior Circuit’s best rookie, but one of its best center fielders, and this could just be the tip of the iceberg of what is to come.

The New York Mets organization received key offensive contributions from two rookies in 2008, which helped the club finish second in the National League East division. Neither Daniel Murphy nor Nick Evans was considered amongst the club’s top prospects. Murphy checked in on Baseball America’s Top 30 Mets prospect list at No. 15 and Evans sat at No. 20 (This list was compiled prior to the Johan Santana trade, which cost the organization four of its top seven prospects).

Last season, Murphy appeared in 45 games for the Mets and hit .313/.397/.473 with an ISO of .160 in 131 at-bats. The 23-year-old left-handed batter posted a reasonable walk rate of 12.1 BB% and a strikeout rate that was on the high side for his skill set at 21.4 K%. Murphy, a Florida native, was originally selected out of Jacksonville University in the 13th round of the 2006 draft and played mostly at the hot corner in the minor leagues. His power, though, is below average for the position. Murphy spent his MLB debut in left field for the Mets.

Despite his solid build (6’3” 210 lbs), his bat does not profile well in a corner outfield spot, either, with a career minor league line of .290/.352/.444. The Mets organization realized this and sent Murphy to the Arizona Fall League (AFL), after the 2008 season, to learn second base. Defensively, he had some hiccups (four errors in 15 games) but Murphy also showed enough promise to give incumbent second baseman Luis Castillo reason to be worried about playing time in 2009. Offensively in the AFL, Murphy hit .397/.487/.619 in 63 at-bats.

Evans also has a chance to play regularly in 2009, despite modest debut numbers last season. Only Carlos Beltran and, perhaps, Ryan Church are assured of 500-plus plate appearances in 2009, if healthy. Evans, a right-handed hitter, was a surprised call-up in 2008 and hit .257/.303/.404 with an ISO of .147 in 109 at-bats (50 games). The 22-year-old Arizona native was originally drafted in the fifth round out of high school in 2004 and spent the first half of 2008 in Double-A.

Evans has raw power, but he is still learning how to tap into it. He also does not walk much (8.1 BB% in Double-A, 6.0 BB% in the Majors). The big problem with Evans, offensively, is that fact that he hit just .135/.150/.189 against right-handed pitching, which is downright awful. He killed southpaws, though, with a line of .319/.380/.514. Evans is going to have a hard time playing everyday if he cannot improve that – and it’s something that haunted him in the minors too, although not as dramatically.

Defensively, Evans spent the majority of his time in the minors at first base (284 games out of 313). However, all but three of his appearances in the Majors came in left field. Despite his inexperience, he displayed average range and did not make an error. Evans has a higher upside than fellow sophomore Murphy, but the latter is more Major-League ready.

Murphy certainly appears ready to play everyday at second base for the Mets, and could be one of the biggest surprises of 2009. Evans, though, could use some more time in the minors to work on his approach at the plate (as well as against right-handed pitching) and log some more innings in the outfield. He may be pressed into regular duty, though, if players like Cory Sullivan, Jeremy Reed, and Bobby Kielty underwhelm in spring training.

It’s no secret that Micah Owings is a great hitting pitcher, often causing analysts to refer to him as a hitter that happens to pitch rather than the aforementioned moniker. Reports even circulated prior to the season starting that Owings might get some playing time at first base due to the departure of Tony Clark. Last year, Owings produced one of the best hitting-seasons-for-a-pitcher of all time, thanks to a slash line of .333/.349/.683; he also hit eight doubles, one triple, and four home runs.

In the sixth inning of last night’s Diamondbacks-Astros game, Owings hit a pinch hit, two-run homer to tie the game. The Astros even made a pitching change prior to the at-bat in order to bring in righty Dave Borkowski and Brad Ausmus commented that Owings is the only pitcher over which he has ever discussed sequencing strategies. ESPN had a field day showing highlights and questioning whether or not Owings belongs in the lineup everyday, but the following video segment made me cringe:

They specially selected the ridiculously small sample size of 75 plate appearances in order to further a point that did not necessarily need to be made. Everyone knows he is a tremendous hitter and this comparison did nothing but show a complete ignorance towards the usage of statistics. The hard part about criticizing the video is that the anchors actually used and explained OPS! Granted, OPS is not the end-all, be-all, but for a mainstream show such as Sportscenter to discuss a sabermetric statistic is a pretty big step. Unfortunately, they lost points with the small sample size comparison.

Earlier today on PTI, Michael Wilbon mentioned that putting Owings in the lineup should be done sparingly at first until a large enough sample could be gathered to determine his true ability. Suffice it to say, I was shocked: One ESPN show discussed OPS and another discussed how small sample sizes should not be used to make quick judgments. While discussing sabermetric statistics and explaining how small sample sizes fail to explain anything truly tangible are both important, which do you feel would be best served exploring deeper on mainstream analysis-driven shows?

This offseason the Diamondbacks struck gold in winning the Dan Haren sweepstakes. The young, 27-year old ace looked mighty fine when placed right next to Brandon Webb. Billy Beane decided it was time to rebuild and sent Haren to the desert for six prospects: Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Gregory Smith, Aaron Cunningham, and Chris Carter. Many had only heard of Eveland and Gonzalez but, as usual, concluded that the other four must have solid value because they attracted the attention of Beane.

Haren has pitched quite well in the early going, legitimately posting a 4-1 record with an FIP of 3.26. Further west, though, Gregory Smith and Dana Eveland have been flying under the mainstream radar and paying dividends to a surprising Athletics team. Of course the season is still young, but these youngsters deserve some credit.

Smith has pitched at least six innings in four of his five starts, and is yet to surrender more than three earned runs in any of them. He currently sports a 1.06 WHIP and an LOB of 75.5%. His line drive percentage of 17.2% expects a BABIP of around .292, yet it currently sits at .226. Additionally, his ERA of 2.73 translates to a 4.20 FIP. He has not been as steady with the luck-based indicators as Eveland but ranks 9th among AL starters with a 0.73 WPA/LI.

Eveland’s ERA of 3.13 translates to a still quite good 3.46 FIP. Allowing 16.8% line drives we would expect his BABIP to be around the .288 mark; it is currently .291, so he has not been unlucky in that regard. He currently ranks 16th among AL starters with a 0.52 WPA/LI, just slightly ahead of teammates Chad Gaudin and Joe Blanton. Yes, four-fifths of the Athletics rotation ranks in the top twenty. His K/BB of 1.86 is nothing to write home about but he has pitched quite well for a 24-year old with just six major league starts entering the season.

Though Eveland pitched poorly last night. based solely on April performance, this trade has definitely benefited both teams, and the Athletics still have four more prospects yet to scratch the surface.

Coming into the 2008 season the National League East had been reduced to a three-team race between the Braves, Mets, and Phillies. Nobody pegged the Marlins as potential contenders even with Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis; their subsequent trade to the Tigers did nothing to help the cause.

Looking at the standings right now might require a double take because the three pre-season contenders currently rank 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the division. The first place team? Well, none other than the pesky fish from Florida, who currently sport a 15-10 record and a 1.5 game lead over the Mets and Phillies. This isn’t likely to continue but they have had a good first month and deserve some recognition. One of the major reasons for their early success is the stellar production from leftfielder Josh Willingham. He will not make headlines as a fantasy or statistical superstud, like teammate Hanley Ramirez, but Willingham has quietly become a very solid hitter.

His 2006 and 2007 seasons were pretty consistent, evidenced by the following breakdowns:

• 2006: 142 GP, .277/.356/.496, 56 XBH, 109 K, 21.7 K%, 0.50 BB/K
• 2007: 144 GP, .265/.364/.463, 57 XBH, 122 K, 23.4 K%, 0.54 BB/K

Though we are still suffering from some small sample size issues, Willingham has seemingly increased his production levels relative to the previous two seasons. In fact, his RC/27 has vastly increased:

I would love to say that Willingham will keep this up, as I draft him for my fantasy team every year, but his balls-in-play rates just do not seem to point in that direction. Now, this is not to say he will not have a productive year, but rather that his production is very likely to level off in the coming weeks or months. Here is a look at his GB/FB/LD rates:

As you can see, his percentage of grounders has increased upwards of ten percent. Due to this increase, his BABIP currently rest at .348, much higher than the .310 and .308 posted in the last two seasons. Another so called red flag is the fact that his HR/FB % has increased from 12% to 23%; while his percentage of flyballs has decreased by about ten percent he is hitting a little over ten percent more of them out of the ballpark.

He could defy the odds and put up an incredible season but it would come with the potential stigma of having high luck-based indicators, IE, a fluke. His numbers should improve from those posted last year but not along the lines of what would occur should we extrapolate his current statistics over the rest of the season.