Worry no more Minnesota fans; a soothing balm to news on Joe Nathan’s season-ending surgery has quickly arrived. According to sources, Joe Mauer has done what we mostly all expected and come to an extension agreement. There had been progress toward this all winter and while I am sure the news today bums out fans in New York and Boston, they should not be surprised.

At least, the idea that Joe Mauer is staying in Minnesota should not surprise them. What they, along with everyone else, might be surprised about is for how long. Though an ultimately bogus lead earlier in the off season had Mauer signing a ten-year contract, today’s announcement of an eight-year, $184 million deal is still an incredibly big one. Beginning in 2011 and covering only what would have been free agent years, Mauer averages $23 million per season through 2018, covering his age 28 through 35 seasons.

Mauer was worth an incredible eight wins last year even without any credit for his defense, which most regard as above average. Both CHONE and the Fans expect Mauer to be worth 7.3 wins this coming season, though I am skeptical that he maintains such a high value as a hitter while also catching as often as the projection systems have him doing. Mauer spent 109 games at catcher last season and 28 at designated hitter and I think that’s a roughly fair expectation for him in the future as well. You should always strive to be conservative when it comes to catchers.

Overall, I think a 6.5-win projection is a little more realistic for Mauer, a total that even with the recently depressed market, surpasses his AAV salary. In the short term, this deal is fair to both sides. Where it might get dicey is down the line when Mauer reaches his mid-30s. I don’t think him staying at catcher is needed for this to work out though. Mauer’s bat is good enough to stand a move to first base and he would benefit from a likely increase in playing time. My concern is simply that for being on the hook for eight years and giving him a full no trade clause, I feel the Twins should have gotten a bit more of a discount.

The general rule is that long term contracts get about a 10% discount for compounding injury risk. If you apply that here, Mauer’s $23 million per year acts more like $25.5 million in valuation, a figure that would require him to maintain a 6-win pace for the duration of his contract. Can he do that? Sure. He might even exceed it, but the downside outstrips the upside here. That’s only a nitpick though and it might turn out that some of that money is deferred. In the end, if Minnesota had to cover a few extra million in order to keep Mauer in the Twin Cities, it’s going to be worth it to them from a PR perspective and it’s great for baseball that such a star is staying in his home organization.

The Texas Rangers are considering moving reliever C.J. Wilson into their starting rotation, and he has done nothing but impress them this spring. Of course, one shouldn’t put undue (i.e., any) weight in spring training performances, but there are other ways of gauging whether Wilson might make a decent starter.

I first want to make clear that I’m not going to address two important issues: 1) How much of an increase in workload Wilson may or may not be able to handle, and 2) whether or not Wilson is more valuable in the rotation than in the bullpen. I will just be focusing on his chances of making the transition performance-wise (other than endurance).

How good would Wilson be as a starter? CHONE projects him to have a 3.70 FIP in 2010, and ZiPS projects him for 4.17 — an average of about 3.94. Both of those projections are based on Wilson’s performances as a reliever, and as a general rule one estimates that a reliever will be one run per 9 innings pitched worse as a starter. A 4.94 FIP isn’t replacement level, but even in Texas’ hitter-friendly home park, that’s nothing to get excited about other than as a stopgap or back-of-the-rotation type.

There are other reasons to be doubtful. For his career, he has pretty big platoon splits, posting a 3.39 FIP (3.36 xFIP) versus lefties, and a 4.58 FIP (4.26 xFIP) versus righties. While relievers can be put into games so as to maximize their platoon advantage, this is not the case for starters, and most of the time, hitters would have the advantage against Wilson.

Finally, while pitch-type linear weights don’t tell us everything about the quality of a Wilson’s repertoire (for example, sequencing), they do tell us something. Of Wilson’s primary offerings the last few seasons, only his fastball has been clearly above average, and this is important for starters, who have to face batters more than once.

The factors cited above tell against the likelihood of Wilson being very good as a starter. However, projection is always a tricky business, particularly in the case of pitchers, whose true talent is generally subject to more changee than that of hitters. Moreover, there are some interesting recent developments in Wilson’s case. So, with all the usual caveats, two things stand out to me from Wilson’s 2009. First, while Wilson has always been a favorable groundball/flyball ratio (a good thing anywhere; even if sometimes the ball goes towards Michael Young that’s better than it going out of the park), in 2009, he took it to a new level, at 2.25. Second, in 2009, Wilson’s platoon split was remarkably even: 2.81 FIP (3.60 xFIP) versus lefties, and 2.94 FIP (3.05 xFIP) versus righties.

Normally, I’d be pretty skeptical, primarily because it relies on just one year of data (and from a reliever-sized sample, at that). But there might be something more at work here. Some of the Rangers’ pitchers (including Wilson) have added a cutter. Again, usually I’d be wary — “adding a new pitch” is right up there with “in the best shape of his life” for Spring Training stories. But in Wilson’s case, it has some substance. According to his pitch types, his pitch use and selection changed in 2009. While he threw about the same number of changeups as before, he seems to have thrown his fastball less in favor of more sliders and cutters. While earlier I said that over multiple seasons the fastball was his only consistently effective pitch, there is the possibility that adding a cutter and throwing more sliders might have increased the overall effectiveness of his pitches (other than the still below-average changeup). The cutter, in particular, might help explain his greatly improved platoon splits in 2009.

I don’t have a firm conclusion. At first glance, we wouldn’t expect Wilson, a capable reliever, to be that effective as a starter. However, if the new cutter has not only helped his platoon issue but has expanded his repertoire so that he can to get through the order more than once (and perhaps get even more groundballs), then — provided he can handle a starter’s workload over a full season — the Rangers might have something more than just a stopgap starter on their hands.*

* Thanks to David Appelman and pitch f/x expert Mike Fast for their helpful responses to my emails on this subject. Neither of them, of course, should be held responsible for any mistakes and/or misguided analysis in this post.

Unlike the last team on this list, the Tigers spend a lot of money; they just don’t spend it very well. They’ve committed nearly $130 million towards their 2010 payroll, which should be more than enough to build a contender, but $65 million of that is going to Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis, and Nate Robertson. Yikes. The money wasted on those fives guys slashes the Tigers effective payroll dramatically, and is one of the main reasons why the team has had to settle for not-good-enough options at key spots on the roster.

Overall, much like the Giants and White Sox, there are strengths surrounded by too many weaknesses, making the team an unlikely winner in 2010. There are scenarios where they could beat out the Twins for the AL Central, but I wouldn’t suggest putting money on it happening. There are just too many problem spots – the back of the rotation, the outfield, the middle infield, the health of Brandon Inge… it’s a pretty long list of areas of concern. Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera cannot win this division by themselves.

Looking ahead, the Tigers do have a large stable of expiring contracts, which should give them some additional financial flexibility going forward, but they’re also going to have to rebuild almost the entire roster with that money. Five of their everyday position players are aging free agents who will likely need to be replaced in 2011, and they’ll need new 4th and 5th starters as well. It wouldn’t be quite as large of a task if the farm system was ready to produce players that could fill these holes, but that’s simply not the case in Detroit.

The Tigers minor league system has some high ceiling young arms, but they’re not close to major league ready, and there’s just not much in the way of high level position players who can be expected to become regulars. While trying to contend in 2010, Dave Dombrowski is also going to have to get some young everyday players who he can build around, because there are a lot of holes going forward in this organization.

You can’t build a long term winner through free agency alone, and the Tigers are now paying the price for some of the contracts they’ve handed out in years past. They’re attempting to rebuild the core of the team while also contending, but from my perspective, it looks like they’re not going to get maximum results from either effort. The effect – an older team with lots of future question marks that isn’t quite good enough to win in 2010. That’s not a great spot to be in.

Change is afoot in Detroit, as the rebuilding of the Tigers organization began this offseason with the acquisitions of Austin Jackson, Max Scherzer, Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth. The team complemented their budget shaving of Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson with a long-term deal for Justin Verlander. The plan is clear: build around Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, and slowly begin to shed the long-term commitments that handcuffed Dave Dombrowski in recent offseasons.

The good news is the sanity of the front office, beginning with Dombrowski, who has his weaknesses but is also a trained artist at rebuilding organizations. Dombrowski’s best signing with the Tigers might be scouting director David Chadd, who has done well with a large scouting budget since coming over from the Boston Red Sox. Surely, part of the sales pitch was the budget itself, as it has afforded Chadd the ability to draft players like Rick Porcello and Jacob Turner, even when their bonus demands scared away other teams.

Every scouting director has his preferences, and Chadd is as transparent as anyone. Porcello is 6-foot-5. Ryan Perry is 6-foot-4. Turner is 6-foot-5. Casey Crosby is 6-foot-5. Etcetera. The team is stacked with these types of pitchers, going after guys with an intimidating presence, an intimidating fastball, and a downhill plane. In this sense, there might be no one better to build around than Verlander.

This is going to create the effect of a revolving door of flamethrowers in Detroit, and could mean some really nice pitching staffs. Porcello is only going to get better in his second season — his start against the Twins last season in Game 163 showed the type of pitcher he can be consistently. Scherzer is a great asset that will be under control for the length of Verlander’s extension, and the lower minors will be stocked with guys looking to join them in 2012 or so. Crosby and fellow lefty Andy Oliver will bring some left-handed mix to the Tigers rotation, and the reports on Turner are fantastic.

The bullpen is just as good, as the Tigers will have a lot of cheap options to pair with the expensive Jose Valverde. Ryan Perry held his own last year after being rushed to the Majors, and is now reunited with a former college teammate on a similar schedule, Daniel Schlereth. It won’t be long until they are joined by Cody Satterwhite and Robbie Weinhardt, which again will create a very similar, yet very dangerous, pitching staff.

Once again, however, we are left wondering if a team’s offense will be able to keep up with the pitching staff. It will be important for Cabrera to stay good for a long time, both because of his cost on the roster and a lack of other dangerous middle of the order hitters. Ryan Strieby could add some power in the DH slot, and you’ll still cross an occasional believer in Wilkin Ramirez or Casper Wells, but most likely, the middle of the order will have to come from outside the organization.

Dambrowski can probably make do with the surrounding pieces, starting with his new toy, centerfielder Austin Jackson. Few prospects spark such a wide range of opinions, but I think we can sort of set a median expectation on his performance last season in Triple-A. Jackson has the athleticism to blossom into something more powerful, and the baseball savvy to become more patient, but anticipating anything north of .350 in the wOBA column for his team-controlled seasons is projecting too optimistically.

Jackson will be joined as a rookie on this roster by both Scott Sizemore and Alex Avila, middle-round college guys with low upsides. These aren’t guys that will hurt, and aren’t guys likely to exceed 2 WAR anytime in the future. Truly, the only player in the system I think you can hope for more than that is Daniel Fields, a prep shortstop given $1.625 million last year. But Fields is too far away to be a factor in this series, so the point remains: Chadd’s obsession with big pitchers may have gotten in the way of creating a balanced farm system. Things will be different in Detroit very soon, but the idea of looking for offense on the free agent market will remain a Tigers staple for the foreseeable future.

As Dave C. noted we are getting to the teams that have a shot at sneaking into the playoffs if a number of things break their way. The Tigers are such a team. With their talent, and with the benefit of playing in the AL Central, they have a non-negligible chance at post-season play. That is not say they should be considered the favorites in their division. In fact, most projection systems see them as a sub-80 win team and the third best, if not worse, team in the division.

On the position player side they have one true superstar in Miguel Cabrera, who, at 26, is an amazing player — producing five-plus-win seasons in four of the past five years. After that, though, the position player talent on the team is relatively poor. CHONE sees Johnny Damon as the best position player after Cabrera, which is not a ringing endorsement. Joining Damon on the wrong side of thirty in the Tigers’ starting lineup are Gerald Laird, Brandon Inge, Adam Everett, Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen. These five guys, over half of the Tigers’ starting lineup, are not only declining but probably at best slightly above-average and, more likely, slightly below-average starters.

The starting lineup rounds out with two guys who have never had major league at-bats, Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore. It is nice to have this young, cost-controlled talent, but that is for the next post on future talent; here, we are looking at current talent and, again, these guys are probably below-average major leaguers at this point. On a positive note, the Tigers have a solid fourth outfielder in Ryan Raburn, which is important with Damon and Ordonez in the starting lineup.

The rotation is probably a little better. Justin Verlander broke out in a big way last year and is a legitimate number-one starter. After that, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello are talented young pitchers who would be assets in most rotations. But each is not without concerns, Scherzer for his health and Porcello for the likelihood of BABIP-based regression. And although only the best teams can boast good pitchers one-to-five, the bottom two-fifths of the Tigers’s rotation — two of Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson and Eddie Bonine — seems particularly suspect.

There is talent on the team for sure — Verlander and Cabrera are superstars — but the supporting cast has too many below-average players. The position players particularly are a mix of guys either whose peaks are a little too far off in the future or too far removed in the past — or guys who never had much a peak to begin with. As I said at the beginning, it is a team that should win around 80 games and will only make the playoffs if things break right.

If there’s one thing the Marlins have been known for throughout their history, it has been for being a player development factory. They have constantly replenished their big league roster with new talent from the farm and served as a pipeline for getting talented players into the major leagues. Unfortunately, if there’s another thing the Marlins have been known for, it’s been trading those players as soon as they reach arbitration eligibility, as the team has operated on a shoestring budget that hasn’t let them keep players beyond their cost controlled years.

After years of operating this way, the players union finally complained to Major League Baseball, and the league actually forced the Marlins to spend the revenue sharing money they’ve been pocketing for years. The result? Dan Uggla is still a Marlin, and Josh Johnson has a new, long-term contract that not only bought out two arbitration years but two years of free agency, as well. For once, the Marlins did not hold a fire sale during the winter. Okay, they traded Jeremy Hermida and Matt Lindstrom, but those two are hardly irreplaceable. The core of the team remained mostly in tact, which is new for Florida, at least.

With Hanley Ramirez and now Josh Johnson locked up for a while, along with some promising rookies and one of the most impressive prospects in the game, the Marlins have the beginnings of a good team. The question, as always, is payroll. Even with the new money spent this winter, the team simply doesn’t have the type of financial flexibility needed to fill out a roster well enough to really contend. They’ve spent just over $40 million on the current team, which isn’t enough unless you’re building around a legendary core of homegrown talent. The Marlins aren’t.

So, despite their strengths in player development, and the talent on the roster that is good enough to keep them from being terrible, the Marlins aren’t really contenders. They’re a player development machine that can put together teams that play respectable baseball without costing much money, but unless the agreement with the player’s union leads to a significant expansion of the payroll, they’re going to remain a quality also ran.

It’s too bad, too, because there are some good baseball people doing good things in Florida. But the lack of investment in the team significantly limits their upside. It’s a good step that they didn’t tear the team apart this winter, but until they actively start adding pieces to help the team take the next step, it’s tough to see their organizational blueprint as one that any teams should want to follow.

There’s something here. It’s unlikely much will come of it for reasons I’m sure Dave Cameron will cover later today… And that has to be incredibly frustrating for my boy Michael Jong and that one Marlins fan (or was it a homeless person who visited a Salvation Army shop with slim pickings?) I saw in Arizona… that has to be about it, right? It’s not like ownership has even earned that.

It’s too bad. The Marlins have a good core put together by a smart front office working with one hand tied behind their back. Let’s get the obvious out of the way: Hanley Ramirez is the best shortstop in baseball, and he’s only 26. ‘Nuff said. Dan Uggla’s defense, unlike Ramirez’s, appears to still be pretty bad at second, but his bat is still pretty good, and he’s an above average player. The corner infield is less inspiring, particularly with Jorge Cantu (and okay hitter but a dreadful fielder) still at third base, while something like a younger version of Cantu, Gaby Sanchez, patrols the area around first. Sanchez may just be holding down the fort until the team feels Logan Morrison is ready (and that may be soon). All three are competent, none are inspiring (although Morrison is just 22 and thus has a fair bit of upside). The outfield is good, too. The redoubtable Cody Ross was never great in center field, his defense is a plus in the corners and overall he’s probably about an average player or a bit better. Left fielder Chris Coghlan, another good young bat from the farm, would probably be playing second base this season if the club had been able to trade Dan Uggla (or moved him to third) as they wished. Anyway, Coghlan hits and fields well enough to be above average overall in left field. The long-awaited Cameron Maybin will be getting his first full-time shot in center field, and while some analysts aren’t as high on his immediate stardom as others, it seems to me he’ll get there soon enough, and with that bat and glove, it’s hard to see him being any worse than above average in 2010. In John Baker and Ronny Paulino, the Marlins have two decent catchers.

It’s the pitching that will get them. 26-year old Josh Johnson is a legitimate ace, or close to it, and the Marlins were forced by the mean-old MLBPA to extend him for four years. Isn’t there any mercy in the world for classy art dealers? Ricky Nolasco is also above average, and may still be more than that. After that, it gets pretty ugly, unless you think Anibal Sanchez and Andrew Miller are going to shock everyone and fulfill the promise they seemed to have long ago. As for the bullpen, well, you get what you pay for.

The frustrating thing about the Marlins is that with good, young players like Ramirez, Maybin, Coghlan, Johnson, and others all under contract or club control, they should be able to contend; even on their small budget, there has to be enough money left over to add a couple of non-terrible relievers, and/or another starting pitcher. Yes, the Phillies are very, very good, but with a bit of effort the Braves would be within striking distance. The Marlins could have a reasonable chance a wildcard spot (and maybe more), especially with the Nationals floundering and the Mets being the Mets. As it is, the Marlins will probably be around .500 this year, maybe a bit better, maybe a bit worse.

Jeffrey Loria should thank his lucky stars every day that Donald Sterling is around.

John Smoltz announced yesterday that he will be taking a studio job with TBS for the time being. That essentially rules out any return to the big leagues by opening day for Smoltz. The future hall-of-famer did say he isn’t officially retired, leaving a return possible, but for the foreseeable future, John Smoltz will not be pitching in the big leagues.

It looked like Smoltz was done last year after struggling with the Boston Red Sox. Smoltz gave up 37 runs in 40 innings in that stint, for an ERA of 8.33. His peripherals, however, suggested that he could still be a productive pitcher, as he posted a 3.67 K/BB and a 4.95 FIP despite an uncharacteristically high 14.8% HR/FB rate.

A move to St. Louis suggested that there was still some gas in the tank. He put up a stellar 2.73 FIP, 2.76 tRA, and 3.46 xFIP in 38 innings with St. Louis. Overall, we have Smoltz as a 1.5 win player in a measly 78 innings in 2009. Even if Smoltz doesn’t have the durability to be a starter any more, there seems to be sufficient evidence that he could be a very productive reliever.

The projection systems all like Smoltz for 2010. These systems all consider age, and yet of the five systems we show on the site (CHONE, ZiPS, Marcel, Bill James, Fans), the worst projection is CHONE’s at a 4.00 FIP. All the others think he’s at least a 3.82 FIP pitcher, making him a well above average pitcher. There’s no way that some team can’t find a spot for him in their rotation (St. Louis, Milwaukee, Seattle, as examples) or bullpen (Minnesota, for one).

It’s always disappointing when talent is forced out of the big leagues, for whatever reason. Still, I, for one, don’t think we’ll have to wait too long for Smoltz to find his way back.

Adam Dunn belongs in the American League. In fact, he should have played there his entire career. Yet every single one of his 5,417 plate appearances and 10,589.2 defensive innings have come in the National League. After spending the first seven and a half years of his major league career with the Reds, he went to the Diamondbacks in August 2008. Finally free to hit free agency after the season and catch on with a team that would keep him out of the field, he instead signed with the Nationals for two years and $20 million in January 2009. It had everyone from saberists to casual fans asking why.

When Adam Dunn hits baseballs, they travel a long way. Over the past three seasons he has the sixth highest ISO in the majors. His home runs during that time, 118, have averaged 409 feet. His slugging percentage, .532, is more than twice his batting average, .256, so each of his hits was worth more than a double. Most teams, I’m sure, would love to have that kind of power in their lineup. In the NL, though, it comes at the expense of his fielding.

The defensive aspect of Dunn’s game makes the Nationals’ stated desire to extend Dunn’s contract a mystery. His park adjusted wRAA last season, 35.5, ranked highest on the team, besting Ryan Zimmerman by 8.1 runs. The next closest player after that, Nick Johnson at 11.9 (just with the Nats), got traded mid-season. The only other National with a positive wRAA was Nyjer Morgan with 8.8. In other words, the team certainly appreciates his bat. Unfortunately, he cannot add his value to the lineup without playing the field.

Countless pixels have been used to describe Dunn’s defense. No adjective can describe it adequately. In fact, if you want to employ hyperbole in describing an inadequate defender, you can say he plays dunndefense (pronounced DUNN-duh-fense). Over the past three seasons only Brad Hawpe sports a worse outfield UZR, -82.1 to Dunn’s -66.9. Those two, along with Jermaine Dye, represent another world of horrible outfield defense. There’s nearly a 20-run difference between Dye and the fourth-worst outfielder.

In an attempt to limit Dunn’s exposure on defense they’ve moved him to first base. He’ll cause the least damage there, but he still handles the position poorly. He has played only 668 innings at first base over the past three years, yet still has the fourth worst UZR at the position, -16.2, and the worst UZR/150. It seems that no matter the position Dunn costs his team runs. Why, then, would a National League team want to sign him?

Two possible answers come to mind. The first doubles back to Dunn’s offensive prowess. A team like the Nats, with only three players who sported a positive wRAA last season, can’t afford to lose a hitter like Dunn, defense be damned. But if he’s costing the team runs on defense, can’t that offset his offensive numbers to an extent? While he does have the fourth most wRAA among outfielders over the past three years, his WAR ranks 37th. It appears, then, that yes, defense can offset offense, making the argument for keeping Dunn’s bat in the lineup a bit weaker.

The other answer involves a trade. GM Mike Rizzo has been charged with building a contender, and while Dunn might not fit into a potential NL East winning team perhaps he can help acquire someone who does. This contender does not figure to come this year, meaning Dunn could walk afterward. But if the Nats sign him to a two-year extension, perhaps they can trade him during or after the 2011 season to an AL team in exchange for a missing piece to their contention puzzle. It seems a longshot, and it probably doesn’t befit a team to sign someone with the intent of trading him for something useful. Given the situation, however, I wouldn’t rule it out.

We know what Adam Dunn adds to a team, but we also know what he takes away. Why, then, would a National League team, exposed to both, sign him? This isn’t the first time someone has asked this question, but with Rizzo actively discussing with the media his eagerness to extend Dunn it might be the most emphatic. The team either thinks his defensive detriment is overstated, or thinks it can turn him around in a year or two for more suitable pieces. I’m not sure either reason is enough justification to extend Dunn’s contract beyond the 2010 season.

No introduction necessary. I’m simply going to attempt to explain all about options in fewer than 300 words. Here we go.

Options are essentially an expansion of the Rule 5 draft. Both are means to prevent teams from collecting and hoarding talent beyond the amount they can field. When an option is used, that simply means the player is on the 40-man roster and was sent to the minors. The majority of players have three option seasons; seasons being the key word there. Take Jeremy Hellickson for example. The Rays reassigned him to minor league camp a few days ago and he will begin the season in Triple-A. At which point an option will be used.

There are some exceptions to this rule.

As discussed with Andrew Miller, a player with fewer than five professional seasons will have a fourth option added.

If a player is optioned to the minors, but spends fewer than 20 days in the minors throughout the entire season, then an option is not used.

If a player misses the season due to injury.

The most confused aspect of the entire ordeal is the difference between years and seasons and how it portrays into options. Take Hellickson again. Since Hellickson was only added to the 40-man last winter, he will have two more options remaining. That is true no matter how many times the Rays promote and demote him throughout the 2010 season.

Oh, and one other thing, teams cannot run what amounts to a 26-man roster by optioning a pair of players up and down throughout any given week. A player sent down has to stay down for 10 days barring an injury to someone on the 25-man roster.

Hopefully that clears things up, if not check out Keith Law’s more detailed post here.