As explained in the overview post, here, this is part of a series looking at the best and worst defensive performers over the past three combined seasons. Rankings are done by adding a player’s UZR with his aggregate positional adjustment so as to level the playing field with regards to difficulty. Essentially, it’s removing the grading curve.

Previously covered:
5th, Ryan Zimmerman 43.7 runs above average.
4th, Omar Vizquel 45.8 runs above average.
3rd, J.J. Hardy 48.7 runs above average.

Tonight, the second best player from 2007-9: OF Franklin Gutierrez.

Gutierrez only got in a half-season in 2007 and three-quarters of a season in 2008. None of that mattered thanks to his outrageous 2009 season. Not to dismiss 2007 or 2008 as irrelevant. They certainly pointed out how good with the glove Gutierrez was and lend us some additional credence for the ridiculous 2009 figure. In 2007, Gutierrez posted a +1.0 UZR for every 70 innings fielded. In 2008, that ratio was one run for every 45 innings. That actually fell to one run for every 47 innings this past season, but that it was accomplished over a full season and in center field rather than right makes it all the more impressive.

To try and put into context just how amazing Franklin Gutierrez’s 2009 season was, here are two figures. First, his combined 30.9 runs in 2009 was the best in baseball by 5.5 runs. His defense was worth half a win more than anyone else’s. Furthermore, the 30.9 was the highest individual season mark in the entire 2007-9 sample. And that 30.9 figure, taken alone would have been good enough for 27th on our three-year list.

Simply by taking the field and playing defense, Gutierrez totaled over five wins of value. That he added some value with his bat, as a right-handed hitter in Safeco Field no less, was pure cherry-flavored gravy atop the ice cream sundae of awesome that was Gutierrez’s 2009.

And as historic as that season was, and as great as that three-year period was, it wasn’t enough to make Gutierrez our top ranked fielder from 2007-9. Edging him out by just over a run per season is the next profile.

When we tell our kids about Randy Johnson, we’re going to start with the height, the hair, and the velocity. In his prime, he regularly threw 100 MPH fastballs with varying amounts of command, making him one of the most intimidating pitchers in the history of the game. At 46, he’s seen his fastball desert him, as the guy who used to throw harder than anyone else now has a fastball that averages below 90 MPH. Here’s a look at how his fastball velocity has decreased since 2002.

There’s a couple of precipitous drops in there, as he’s lost 5 MPH off of his heater in the last eight years. As he’s battled injuries the last few years, the decline has become rapid. Time has caught up with the Big Unit, and his fastball is now a below average pitch.

However, Johnson’s still racking up the strikeouts, because the fastball has never been his out pitch. His slider has been the one that he’s leaned on when he wants to put a hitter away, snapping off a nasty breaking ball that eats lefties alive and even gives problems to right-handed hitters. For whatever reason, that slider just refuses to age.

He lost velocity on it from 2002 to 2003, but since then, it’s been constant at around 84.5 MPH. Even as age has eaten away at his fastball, the slider has held its ground, and could still be described as a power breaking ball. And it’s that pitch that allows him to still put hitters away when he needs to.

Johnson may choose to hang up his spikes and walk away. As a 46-year-old free agent with a long line of health problems, he’s got some incentives to retire. But if he decides to come back for one more year, he’s still got a major league out pitch. For reasons that I certainly can’t explain, his slider just refuses to age as his fastball has.

If there was one guy who was definitely getting traded this winter, it was J.J. Hardy. The Brewers had turned over their starting shortstop job to Alcides Escobar, their infield is crowded, and Hardy wasn’t interested in moving to another position. The only solution was to move him to another team, and that’s what the Brewers did today, sending him to Minnesota for Carlos Gomez.

The Twins seem to be betting on Hardy rebounding to the form he showed in 2007 and 2008, when he was a +4 to +5 win player and one of the best shortstops in baseball. His power disappeared and his BABIP went in the tank in 2009, causing his offensive value to fall apart. However, the Twins don’t need Hardy to go all the way back to what he was to make this a good deal, because even the 2009 version was a decent player, thanks to his defensive value. Hardy can really pick it at shortstop, and was a +1.4 win player in less than a full season in 2009, even with the offensive problems.

Assuming some bounce back, Hardy should project as something like a +3 win player for 2010, making him a significant value at a salary that should come in around $5 million or so. He’s easily worth twice that, and if his offense returns, he could be worth $15 to $20 million to the Twins in each of the next two years.

To acquire Hardy, the Twins gave up Gomez, an outstanding defender in his own right. Milwaukee apparently wanted a premium defender to replace Mike Cameron in center field, but they’re taking a pretty big hit offensively in the swap. Gomez strikes out too often to make the slap hitting gig work, and his inability to bunt himself on base in 2009 caused his average to sink to unacceptable levels.

Even with his elite range in the outfield, Gomez is going to have to improve offensively in order to be worth a starting job. With infields taking away the bunt, he’s going to have to get himself on base in other ways, because it’s nearly impossible to justify starting an outfielder with a .286 career wOBA when you’re trying to make the playoffs.

Gomez is still young and will make the league minimum next year, so the Brewers save some cash, but this still strikes me as a very light return on a quality player. Gomez has some potential, but he’s a work in progress, and the Brewers aren’t really in rebuilding mode. If they go into 2010 with him as their starting CF, they’re going to be taking a pretty significant risk.

Big thumbs up to the Twins here, who got better in a hurry. The Brewers had their hands tied a bit due to the logjam at SS, but it’s still hard to imagine this is the best they could do.

The J.J. Putz era in New York ended yesterday, as the Mets bought out the final year of Putz’s contract. With the last year at 8.6 million dollars and the closer position locked up by Francisco Rodriguez, it is a no-brainer for the Mets to pay the 1 million dollar buyout and avoid locking up a significant sum of money on a questionable set-up man.

How remarkably quickly it seems that one of the potential best 8th and 9th inning combos in baseball has been disassembled. While giving up a seven player package, including major league talent in the form of Aaron Heilman, Jason Vargas, Endy Chavez, and Joe Smith, for a small package centered around an expensive reliever appears to be wrong at a glance, due to the fungibility of those kinds of pitchers, this deal brought things to a whole new level.

To begin with, Putz spent much of 2008 on the DL and did not pitch like the 2 to 3 win relief talent that he showed in 2006 and 2007. Although his fastball velocity hadn’t dropped, something was clearly off with his stuff. His BB rate soared and his LD% rose by 3 points. His 3.78 FIP wasn’t terrible, but was only worth .6 wins in 46 innings pitched. All things considered, with the fungibility of relievers, Putz’s age (31 entering 2009) and an injury in 2008, chances were low that Putz would bring the Mets 13.6 million dollars in value in ‘09 and ‘10.

It hit the fan for Putz in 2009. His control problems persisted and his strikeout rate plummeted. Now, as a 32-year old-reliever running a 1.00 K/BB ratio, Putz hits the market again. He just screams reclamation project. It will be interesting to see what team bites.

From the Mets’ standpoint, they sunk 6 million dollars and 7 players into acquiring Putz, Jeremy Reed, and Sean Green. The trade has produced 0.1 WAR from Putz, -0.7 WAR Reed, and -.1 WAR from Green. Unless Reed and Green somehow become productive major leaguers, this trade will go down as historically bad for New York.

The Mets bullpen will likely be a focal point for the front office again this winter. We’ll find out if they’ve learned their lesson.

As explained in the overview post, here, this is part of a series looking at the best and worst defensive performers over the past three combined seasons. Rankings are done by adding a player’s UZR with his aggregate positional adjustment so as to level the playing field with regards to difficulty. Essentially, it’s removing the grading curve.

Previously covered:
5th, Ryan Zimmerman 43.7 runs above average.
4th, Omar Vizquel 45.8 runs above average.

Tonight, the third best player from 2007-9: SS J.J. Hardy.

Hardy’s inclusion should not be too much of a surprise. Unlike the previous two profiles, Hardy does not have much in the ways of peaks or valleys in UZR. Instead, he is rather consistent with UZRs — always in the level a tad more elevated than simply “above average.”

Like the other shortstop, Vizquel, however, Hardy’s future on this list is murky. His hitting took such a dramatic turn for the worst this past season, from a .355 wOBA in 2008 to a .292 wOBA in 2009, that he lost playing time to Alcides Escobar and was even optioned back to Triple-A. One consequence of that demotion is that Hardy’s free agent status was postponed by a year, making him quite a bit more valuable.

Whether he stays with Milwaukee this off season will be seen, but he should make for an attractive trade target, and given that some of his offensive woes can be traced to a poor BABIP, Hardy deserves a starting job somewhere. His defense alone makes him worth his cost, and if his bat returns, so should the four-win seasons that he posted in 2007 and 2008.

At 48.7 runs above average, J.J. Hardy is our last player among the top five that did not eclipse the 50-run marker. Stay tuned for the second-best, and our lone outfielder, tomorrow.

Jeremy Hermida seemed destined for the land of non-tenders as late as a week ago, but not any longer as the Boston Red Sox have acquired the corner outfielder via trade.

Hermida is formerly a top prospect with nearly 2,000 plate appearances in the bigs. Over that time his bat has played slightly above average (a .336 wOBA) while his defense has left much to be desired. The story with Hermida has been his lack of power. Since 2007 – when he first broke onto the scene as a true regular – his ISO has slipped in each season. From .205 to .157 down to .133, the soon-to-be 26-year-old was going the wrong way, even drawing some comparisons to former wunderkind-to-bust Ben Grieve. Fenway park is more receptive to offense – putting it lightly – which should raise Hermida’s offensive production without so much as a true increase in talent.

Barring something unforeseen – like Boston not addressing the left field spot further – Hermida figures to be a bench player for them in 2010 and potentially beyond. That’s ssuming he actually starts next season in Boston and isn’t flipped for something else through the off-season.

For their efforts to move Hermida, Florida receives a pair of arms: lefties Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez.

Jones features impressive minor league numbers but has velocity that averages about 87 miles per hour. He’s a fastball/slider guy and 12 innings is far too small of a sample size to say one way or the other, but if his contact rate continues to be around 87% don’t look for him to sit down nearly 10 batters per nine like he did in the minors. He’s better against lefties, as you would expect.

I know next-to-nothing about Alvarez. He was as starter in the system with unimpressive strikeout rates that somehow dipped to four per nine after switching to relief and heading to High-A.

Last year, Bobby Abreu sat around all winter trying to figure out where he was going to play. He apparently didn’t want to do that again, as he re-signed with the Angels on the first day of the off-season.

According to Ed Price, the deal is for $9 million a year in 2010 and 2011, with a vesting option for 2012 or a $1 million buyout. The deal guarantees Abreu $19 million over his age 36 and 37 seasons. A few weeks ago, when reports of Abreu turning down a $16 million offer over two years surfaced, I suggested he take it. This deal is a very small premium over that offer, so that’s essentially what Abreu did.

The more interesting aspect of this, to me, is to see how aggressive teams and players are about getting deals done before the market officially opens up. Last year, the players who signed quickly ended up escaping the carnage of the collapsing economy – Kyle Lohse and Ryan Dempster came out looking like big winners for taking the money to re-sign rather than shopping themselves around, and Raul Ibanez was the only defensively challenged outfielder to cash in after signing with Philadelphia quickly.

In this scenario, Abreu took an essentially fair offer for the security of not going through another winter freeze out. The Angels have the cash to make deals like this, and Abreu is a good fit for their team, but I wonder how many other teams will be rushing to lock up players before the market has a chance to set prices this winter. Given the events of last winter and the questionable status of the economy, I’d imagine caution will be the strategy of many big league clubs.

Abreu was smart to take this deal and avoid the risk. If this winter is anything like last year, there will be better players settling for lesser contracts once they hit the market.

I hold in my hands the first of the big offseason publications: The Bill James Handbook 2010. “Carson,” you might be asking, “how are you holding the book in your hands, plural, and typing at the same time? Isn’t that difficult?” To which I reply: “Sure, it is. But it’s the sort of sacrifice I”m willing to make for the FanGraphs readership.”

I don’t presume to even guess how the reader attacks his baseball annuals. For me, the first thing I do, is I head straight to the projections. I don’t know why exactly, but it probably has to do with two reasons. First, the greatest joy in life is crushing one’s friends in fantasy baseball. I want all the information possible towards achieving this great and noble end. Second, I like finding those projections of a slightly daring nature, so’s to give me something to dream about as the next season gets closer and closer.

Of course, some of the projections aren’t real shockers. Like, James and Co. think Pujols will slash .333/.443/.642 next year with 44 HR in 579 AB. That’s about what you’d think.

Other of them are more surprising — particularly among players who’ve yet to cut their major league teeth.

Below are five such projections (with position, RC/27, and slash stats). I’m including only hitters here for now, and will either pick up the pitchers next week, or never ever.

Joshua Bell, 3B, 6.06, 288/370/455
According to his website, Bell has “enchanted audiences worldwide with his breathtaking virtuosity and tone of rare beauty” for more than two decades. Apparently, he’s turned his attention to baseball as of late. Bell was acquired by Baltimore from Los Angeles (N) in the George Sherrill trade. He posted a wOBA of .397 in Double-A last year. He’s currently slashing .320/.404/.500 in the Arizona Fall League.

Tyler Flowers, C, 6.01, 275/353/476
Flowers got the proverbial cup of coffee with the White Sox at the end of season, netting 20 unspectacular plate appearances. Before that, though, he put up a great year across two levels. In particular, his .302/.445/.548 at Double-A Birmingham was impressive. He remains the heir apparent to A.J. Pierzynski, who enters the final year of his contract in 2010. If James’s projections are accurate, Flowers could be a contributor even before that.

Todd Frazier, 2B/3B, 5.51, 278/336/471
Marc Hulet thinks Frazier might ultimately be the Reds’ answer at third base — although probably not till 2011, as Scott Rolen will be there (until he gets injured, that is). In the meantime, Frazier probably has value as a Chone Figgins-y utility player. He hit .290/.350/.481 as a Mudcat in the Double-A Southern League, and his brief time at Triple-A resulted in similar numbers (.302/.362/.476 in 69 PA).

Logan Morrison, 1B, 6.26, 269/401/434
Who’s more likely to get injured, Scott Rolen or Nick Johnson? The answer to that question might inform who we see first: Frazier or Florida’s Logan Morrison. The thing that jumps out — about James’s projection and also Morrison’s 2009 season — is the walk rates. Morrison batted .277/.411/.442 this past year at Double-A Jacksonville, posting 63 walks versus only 46 strikeouts in 343 plate appearances.

Michael Taylor, COF, 5.89, 285/350/462
Physically speaking, Taylor’s almost the same size as former Pitt basketball standout DeJuan Blair. As such, you probably won’t be suprised to learn that, at 6-foot-6 and 250 pounds, Taylor has some natural power. But he’s got some other, more interesting features. According to John Sickels, he’s got basically all the baseball tools you want, plus developing plate discipline, plus the sort of intelligence you’d expect from a Stanford guy. (Unless you’re a Berkeley guy, that is, in which case you probably assume he’s a dope.)

Bonus: Yankee Center Fielders
Question: Who should play center field for the Yankers next year: Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner?

Answer: According to James’s projections, neither. While Cabrera projects at .278/.341/.406 and Gardner at .277/.368/.375 (with an impressive 36-of-44 stolen base record), James has farmhand Austin Jackson at .294/.356/.411.

Congratulations to the 2009 World Series Champion New York Yankees. They were clearly the best team in the league during the regular season and dispatched the Twins, Angles and Phillies with minimal drama to take the World Series. In the process, many of Joe Girardi’s decisions have been questioned here and elsewhere, but one that has gotten near universal support (outside of Minnesota, Los Angeles and Philadelphia) was his heavy use of Mariano Rivera to get six outs an appearance and in non-save situations. Rivera’s performance justified that decision, as he gave up just one run on 10 hits over 16 innings.

It is easy to concoct a narrative of Rivera as Superman against whom there is no chance a run will be scored. MGL neatly dealt with this narrative.

For that matter, I don’t buy into the Rivera post-season mystique either.  He is a great reliever, regular or post-season.  That is why he has had such phenomenal success in the post-season – because he is a great pitcher!  However, there is no such thing as “magic” for any player.  There is nothing a player can do about the “Lady Luck” regardless of how good they are.  Mariano does not throw every pitch exactly where he wants to and he does not strike every batter out.  Sooner or later he is going to implode as any pitcher can on any given day, even when he has his best “stuff” (he seems to have the same stuff every outing).  One bad pitch, one bad call by an umpire, one batted ball that does not get caught or falls into the right spot, one batter that happens up square up a pitch, etc.

I like this viewpoint. Rivera is a great pitcher, so we should not be surprised when he has an amazing run of 16 innings. But that does not mean that he can will himself to pitch 16 one-run innings whenever he chooses. So in this post, when I look back at his amazing performance, I don’t want it to sound like I think this was inevitable and there was no way he could have given up any runs. Rather, I am just looking back and seeing how it happened.

Using the same method I used in the Lee post, I am going to look at those innings for a pitch location point of view. Pitches are color coded, those swung at full color and taken faded, strikes encircled, outs with triangles and hits exed. Full color pitches with no markings were fouled off.

As I have said before, the amazing thing about Rivera is how he can location his cutter on either edge and have few end up in the heart. Against LHBs he went all cutter and mostly pitched inside. The graph is a little busy, but you can see the few times he did go outside or hit the fat of the plate he got a good number of called strikes (faded for taken and encircled for strikes), so it looks like batters were looking inside. On those inside pitches he got tons of fouls and outs, but fewer swinging strikes than I would expect.

Again you see the bimodal distribution of pitches either along the inside edge or outside edge. Against RHBs he mixes in his fastball. Batters swung at it more often than his cutter and made contact at a good rate, but they were fouls or outs. With the cutter he got lots of whiffs up-and-in, called strikes down-and-in, and got more swings and contact, again mostly outs or foul balls, away.

Anyway that you look at it, another sixteen incredible innings in the career of the best relief pitcher ever.

Dayton Moore has made a lot of bad trades and been roundly criticized for a lot of his decisions as the Kansas City GM. Today, though, we stand and applaud, because he reportedly kicked off the off-season with a fantastic deal for his club, sending 3B/OF Mark Teahen to the White Sox for 2B Chris Getz and DH Josh Fields.

Let’s start with Teahen. He’s been rumored to be trade bait for a couple of years now, as he had been displaced by Alex Gordon at third base and split time between the infield and the outfield looking for a permanent home. A large part of the reason he hasn’t been able to land at any single spot on the diamond is because he just isn’t very good.

Teahen is 28-years-old and has accumulated 2,732 plate appearances in the big leagues. He has a career .269/.331/.419 line that works out to a .327 wOBA, which makes him a slightly below average hitter. He’s just average across the board. He makes some contact, he walks a little bit, he has some gap power, and he runs okay, but he’s not good at any one particular offensive skill.

A league average bat has value if he can help a team out defensively, but Teahen isn’t a great defender. His UZR at third base is downright terrible, which is why it should be no surprise that the White Sox apparently plan on using him as an outfielder. He’s okay in a corner, but he’s nothing special, and the combination of an average bat and average defense in a corner outfield spot makes for a below average player overall.

That’s basically what we see with Teahen. He’s accumulated +5.0 WAR over his career, working out to just over +1 win per full season. He’s a useful major league player, but not one that should be starting regularly on a club that wants to win. When you factor in that he’s a second year arbitration eligible player, likely due for a 2010 salary of around $5 million or so, Teahen is basically a zero value asset. His cost is about the same as his contribution.

That Kenny Williams gave up Getz and Fields for the right to pay Teahen about what he’s worth is kind of crazy. Both of the two players going to KC have flaws – Getz lacks power and Fields can’t play defense – but they’re cheap and have a little upside beyond what they’ve shown in the majors. Fields has serious home run power and could add some value as a slugging 1B/DH type for the league minimum. Getz makes a bunch of contact and can play second base adequately. Both are role players or fringe starters, but they make the league minimum and offer some useful skills.

The two players Moore got back from KC aren’t franchise changers – they’re just useful parts to have around in spring training when putting a roster together. Teahen is just not someone that should be making significant money, and given his arbitration status, he’s basically a non-value asset. The White Sox could have acquired a similar or better player by just spending the $5 million they’ll give him in free agency without sacrificing any talent.

This is the right move for the Royals, clearing payroll and bringing in some younger talent that could help the team in the future. For the White Sox, this is yet another sign of the questionable talent evaluation methods used by Kenny Williams. There was no reason to give up anything of value for Teahen. All he’s done with this move is give himself a right fielder who shouldn’t play everyday and open up a bigger hole at second base.