Tonight, Stephen Strasburg returned from Tommy John surgery to make his season debut for the Nationals. Here is a look at his Pitch FX speeds from tonight compared to one of his starts from last season. Read the rest of this entry »

I was lucky enough to be in attendance for last night’s game between the Rays and Red Sox, where I got to see something rather rare: a triple play. In the fourth inning of the game, the Rays had runners on first and second with no outs, and Sean Rodriguez hit a sharp grounder right to Jed Lowrie at third base. Lowrie took two steps to the base and then started an easy 5-4-3 triple play. But as fate would have it, this play wasn’t even the first triple play turned this week. The Brewers turned an impressive 4-6-3-2 triple play on Monday against the Dodgers, the first time that sort of triple play has happened since 1972.

So naturally, these two plays have now turned my mind toward all things triple-play-related. Looking for some odd tidbits of information on these triple plays, or on triple plays in general? I’ve got you covered.

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Whenever I watch Major League action, I typically watch the games with the same intent in which I watch games I’m scouting in person.  When evaluating a hitting prospect, I’m interested in finding out how the pitchers are attacking him.  Where are his holes?  How easily are pitchers exploiting those holes?  Is there one spot or type of pitch you can get him out with or does it take a variation of approaches to get him out?

Things like this can be seen in big league games as well, except the holes are smaller, the weaknesses are more difficult to exploit, and the pitchers are better.  Even baseball’s great hitters like Robinson Cano have holes that pitchers and advance scouting departments are constantly searching for ways to exploit.  One of the ways teams might try to get Cano out in 2011 showed up on Saturday night and Sunday afternoon. 

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Perhaps the story of the Phillies in ye old National League Championship Series of 2010 is the story of missed opportunities at the plate. We know how poor of a statistic batting average is, but Ryan Howard was the only regular to top .261, so the bats weren’t hot. The entire team put up a .216/.311/.321 line, which is somewhere between “that’s disappointing” and “OMGz, trade that bum Chase Utley (.182/.333/.227) like yesterday” depending on your current state of mind. A team that hit .260/.332/.413 during the season didn’t come close to equaling that production in a six-game stretch. It happens, and it seems there’s no reason to slice and dice that sample any smaller.

Or maybe there is. Because we’ve talked about this team’s struggles against lefthanders at times. Looking at the series as a whole, though, the Phillies managed “only” 10 runs, 18 hits (7 extra base) and 9 walks in 21 innings against lefties. Perhaps we only remember the high-profile strikeouts – and the Giants’ LHPs did strike out 23 in those 21 innings. Even if we think the overall line overstates the case and want to consider the leverage index of all those Javier Lopez outings, in particular, he only averaged a 1.4 LI while compiling that 2.08 ERA and getting those 13 outs. Impressive? Yes. Higher-than-average pressure in those situations? Yes. The reason the Phillies lost the series? Hardly. The Phillies had chances and we obviously can’t blame their lack of offense all on their overall performance against lefties.

The word going in was that even if the Phillies offense was going to have a little trouble with this staff, their own pitching staff would easily neutralize the poor Giants offense. After all, the Giants were the only playoff team with a below-average wOBA and the Phillies had Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels. That trio didn’t perform poorly – they pitched 33 innings and allowed 13 runs, striking out 34 against only six walks. Perhaps more was expected of Roy Halladay after his no-hitter in the first round, but he did strain that groin and you don’t point at three pitchers that pitched 65% of your innings to a 3.27 ERA and say, there, that’s your problem right there.

The bullpen? 13 innings, three runs. The defense? Four errors to the Giants’ three – and even if you want to say errors are a poor gauge of defense, you’d have to admit they played about even on the field in that regard. Timely hitting? Sure, but what can you really do about that, and how much of that is the short sample? Want to blame Ryan Howard just ’cause? Check Dave Cameron’s defense.

It was a tight series. Javier Lopez certainly helped the Giants, and the San Francisco staff deserves some credit for keeping a good offense down. Play this series a million times, though, and the Philadelphia squad probably wins close to half of ‘em. The Phillies didn’t play terribly and don’t have an obvious scapegoat going into the offseason, so all they can do is find a way to replace Jayson Werth if he leaves (preferably with a right-handed bat), rework the bullpen as good teams do every offseason, and give it another shot next year.

Game Five obviously did not go the way the Giants wanted, as the 4-2 loss cut their series lead to 3-2. There are small signs that the Phillies’ hitters are coming around, and the pitching matchups aren’t going to get any more favorable for San Francisco. I won’t review every key play of Game Five, but rather a few bad and good points that the Giants can take away from it.

Errors in last night’s game highlighted problems some see with the Giants infield defense. Aubrey Huff‘s error in the third inning was the biggest WPA shift in the game (.155), scoring two runs to put the Phillies up for good. Pablo Sandoval‘s error in the ninth didn’t cost the Giants any runs, but did serve as a reminder that he has been benched for reasons other than his bad season at the plate. Despite Huff’s good UZR and DRS scores this season, for his career he’s still a negative defender at both at first, and was slightly below average in 2010′s Fans Scouting Report. The metrics don’t see Sandoval as horrible at third base, but the Giants are clearly concerned about his abilities there.

The middle of the Giants’ batting order got shut down. There’s no shame in getting reigned in by Roy Halladay, even when he’s working with a pulled groin, but the Giants needed more from their 3-4-5 hitters Aubrey Huff, Buster Posey, and Pat Burrell, who were held to a double (by Burrell) and a walk (by Posey) in twelve plate appearances. It was obvious before the series started that runs would be hard to come by for both teams, especially the Giants, but the team can’t count on Cody Ross to keep bailing them out (insert baserunning joke here).

There were some hopeful signs for the Giants, however. They still aren’t being dominated by the Phillies’ offense. Tim Lincecum gave up three runs (not horrible in itself over seven innings), but two of those scored on Huff’s error. The Phillies did look better at the plate in this game (at least to me), but they are still struggling to score runs. Lincecum won’t be starting the other games of the series, but Jonathan Sanchez and Matt Cain have more than held their own so far against the Phillies. One long home run by Jayson Werth doesn’t change that.

Despite the last night’s defensive foibles, Giants fans should be happy that Pablo Sandoval started last night and got a hit. He grounds into an incredible number of double plays, and 1-4 with no walks isn’t great, but he’s still a better bet than running either Mike Fontenot or Edgar Renteria out there. Bruce Bochy resisted the temptation to leave Andres Torres on the bench, and he responded by going 2-3 with a walk. Another poor plate performance shouldn’t change our evaluation of his true talent, but it might have put pressure on Bochy to sit him for the remainder of the series, and he’s clearly better both offensively and defensively than Aaron Rowand. It is amazing how much I’ve read about Torres’ “returning to reality” during his playoff struggles from people who should know better. He’s probably not as good offensively as his 2009 and 2010 regular season performances, but as I’ve discussed before, this hasn’t been a 300 PA, BABIP-fueled hot streak, either. For more than 700 PA in 2009 and 2010 Torres has had an above-average walk rate and good power. He needs to be starting every game for the Giants.

Some will want to talk about the Phillies “seizing the momentum” as the series shifts back the Philadelphia. The Phillies still have the more talented group of players, but they certainly haven’t outplayed the Giants so far in this series. Even in last night’s loss, the Giants showed that if they do win the series it won’t be a miraculous feat.

I’m nothing if not predictable. Why change a horse in midstream, the saying goes.

Roy Halladay, October 6, 2010

Roy Halladay, October 21, 2010

Yup, more strike zone plots from Brooks Baseball. And Carson’s out here pushing the limits in his previews. But these two game plots are pretty different, eh? Then let me blow you away with yet another strike zone plot, eh?

Looks like Halladay was having a little trouble locating low-and-away to left-handers, no? Or, at least low-and-away in general. In any case, it’s a nice way to show, in pictures, what it looks like to win “without your best stuff,” as the game stories most likely went today. Halladay grit and grissioned his way through the start while Tim Lincecum was the valiant loser, mostly because of some poor defense behind him.

Lincecum is not left-handed, and that probably helped lefties Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and the recently unbenched Raul Ibanez to a stunning 3-for-12 in game five. That group, along with Domonic Brown, is now a combined 10-for-51 with 7 walks and 3 extra-base hits, which sounds bad except the whole team is now batting .208. Perhaps the struggles of the left-handed batter from Philadelphia were overstated.

Raul Ibanez, though, that guy shook off his benching in a strong way. One of his two hits led to the first run of the game and started that third inning that featured all the little league defense a big-league audience could handle. Placido Polanco was the WPA champ on the offensive side for singling in the third run in the third inning (+8.5%), but somehow Ibanez sticks out.

It was a nice respite. Now, because of the Roy Oswalt Decision, the Phillies still face an uphill climb in game six.

First off, given some of the howling on twitter, it’s time for the obligatory strike zone plot. Let’s get it out of the way, thanks to Brooks Baseball.

It’s pretty ugly, but consistent enough. It was four or five inches too wide, or a half a foot if you count both sides. But there are plenty of triangles and squares out there beyond the box, so let’s not blame it all on umpire Wally Bell.

For all the talk of how similar Madison Bumgarner and Joe Blanton were going into the game, it’s somewhat prescient that they both failed to get out of the fifth inning and that they both left having given up three earned runs. On the other hand, the journey was not necessarily so similar. Bumgarner does use his left hand, and he did strike out six and allow only one run to score while he was on the bump, while Blanton struck out three and was directly responsible for all of his runs. It wasn’t all bad for Blanton – all of his balls in play were counted as groundballs – but it since the starters played to a standstill on the scoreboard, the advantage goes to the hometown pitcher.

Phillies fans can’t even blame the randomness of coming through in high leverage moments in this one – there were eight moments with a leverage index over one last night. The Phillies batters came through in two of them, and the Giants batters came through in two of them. It may seem that the Giants were more ‘clutch,’ but that would probably just be because they came up last. To the home-fielders went the spoils.

At this point, some of the blame must rest squarely on the Phillies’ stars. In this game, Chase Utley put up a -10.8% in win probability by going one for five and not coming through in some key moments. That comes on the heels of a -12% in game three (0-for-4), +3.8% in game two (0-for-3 with two walks), and a -1.8% in game one (1-for-3 with a walk). It’s obviously just a poor four-game stretch for a great secondbaseman, but it’s also bad timing for that stretch. The same could be said for Jimmy Rollins (.267, 1 extra base hit) and Jayson Werth (.250, 1 extra base hit).

The larger pattern is one of struggles for all of the left-handers on the team. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, the recently benched Raul Ibanez, and young Domonic Brown are a combined 7-for-39 with 7 walks and 3 extra-base hits, and most of that is Howard’s production. Maybe it’s not a surprise given the left arms of Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner, but Javier Lopez looms as a large acquisition for the Giants in this series. He has three big holds and gave up his first run Wednesday night. His lefty sidearm release has been hard on the lefty batters, and that makes sense given the difference in release points vis-a-vis a regular right-hander.

All this said, it was a great game. The WPA graph does a good job showing the rollercoaster that was Wednesday night. Fans of baseball were satisfied, if not fans of Phillie baseball.

Cody Ross isn’t bald, he just emits Awesome from his head. – chatter Tony
Cody Ross is the answer to every question. – chatter TexasRanger

Ah, but this is the Philly review, so that will be enough of the Ross love here. Which is good, because we don’t have to cover the Great Bruce Bochy Lineup Disaster either, especially since it turned out okay for the Giants. Instead, we’ll reach back into the chat to find a couple quotes that offered real-time feedback on Ted Barrett’s strike zone:

Aren’t you noticing a completely different strike zone being called for both pitchers in this game. Matt Cain is getting inside, outside, and low. Have not seen those same pitches call for Cole Hamels – chatter T Barrett
Maybe the complaints are based on when Cole get squeezed rather than quantity. The non-strike 3 to Sanchez was a big call (like Halladay’s against Burrell in game 1). – chatter Andy

So we turn to the pictures – from Brooks Baseball - to try and get the full story:

At first glance, there’s reason to doubt Barret’s zone. There are five clear strikes on the outside the zone for the Giants, and only two that are as far outside the zone for the Phillies. If we count all of the “wrong” calls inside and out, we get eight called strikes that weren’t strikes and four strikes that were not called strikes for the Giants. Then there’s four called strikes that weren’t strikes and five strikes that weren’t called for the Phillies. It’s the sort of thing that seems both real and yet somehow not completely significant. But a lot of this is in the eye of the beholder, as these chat responses to the posted strike zone show:

looks pretty even to me – chatter Evan
Whole camels could fit inside Cain’s sz – chatter bowie
mostly shows me that cain did a better job of hitting that left side of the zone. he peppered a lot of pitches very close to the line – chatter Giants

Ah-hah. The truth is in the eye of the beholder often, but let’s try to say something true about this game: “Though the strike zone may have favored the Giants in a slight way and put pressure on Cole Hamels in key moments, the game was won by timely hitting by the Giants and the failure of the Phillies’ batters to come through in similarly tough situations.” You can quote me on that.

Let’s end this with a look at the highest leverage moments in the game, and the results of the at-bat.

The weekend took your faithful Phillie correspondents to places we didn’t expect, and none of those places featured wifi and a comfy moment to kick back and review the first two games of the NLCS. Better late than never. The Phillies and Giants split the weekend, which wasn’t great for the maroon marauders because the series tilted lightly in the Giants’ favor with those results – teams that win one of two games on the road in a seven-game MLB series win the series 56.2% of the time.

Game One was just one of those games, it seems. Seven innings, eight hits, seven strikeouts, no walks and more ground balls than fly balls doesn’t seem like a line that would normally produce four earned runs, but that’s what happened to Roy Halladay Saturday night. The difference between excellent and a -8.8% WPA night for the Doc could have been summed up in two fly balls from Cody Ross that ended up in the seats. This same Cody Ross had exactly average power this year (.145 ISO) and had gone -for-16 against Halladay in his career. The same Cody Ross that was Cody Ross the Marlin until Brian Sabean briefly made him Randy Myers by supposedly claiming him just to block the Padres. Then the Giants then realized that he was better than Jose Guillen, at least in the field, so that he could become the Cody Ross, Giant, that the Bay Area now knows and loves. Either way, you read that fateful name backward as Grant did on the McCovey Chronicles, and you get “ssoR y doC,” which is about all that can be said to Halladay, who pitched well enough to win.

It did seem like the Phillie offense could have put together a five spot – Tim Lincecum wasn’t at his best either. He walked more (three), and gave up equal numbers of fly balls and ground balls, but he also struck out eight – one of which was Ryan Howard with two batters on in a tie game in the third inning (worth 6.6% in WPA alone). Though the two teams had the same amount of baserunners, and the Phillies showed a better slugging percentage as a team, it was the Giants that strung together the hits in the big moments.

The following may seem random – and most likely was – but the big lineup change between games one and two may have had a little bit to do with the different outcomes. As Rob Neyer noted before the game Sunday, Charlie Manuel reversed Placido Polanco and Chase Utley in the batting order so that the heart of the order did not include two straight lefties in Utley and Howard.

It’s a little strange to see Polanco and his lack of power batting third, and it may feel like separating two lefties isn’t that big of a deal, but just look at what the Giants did in the two games for your pudding-based proof. In Game One, Javier Lopez brought his lefty sidearm release to the mound to get Utley to ground out and Howard to strike out before leaving in a double switch that would have made Dusty Baker proud. In Game Two, Bruce Bochy brought Ramon Ramirez out to pitch to the righty Shane Victorino, but after Victorino sacrificed, he was faced with the choice of walking the lefty Utley to keep Ramirez in the game and pitch to Polanco, or burning Lopez on Utley, bringing in Sergio Romo to pitch to Polanco, and then summoning Jeremy Affeldt to get Howard. That is a lot of relievers, but with the off-day coming today, the second move-heavy approach is probably what Bochy should have done. Instead, this is what happened:

Bottom 7th: Philadelphia
- R. Oswalt singled to shallow center
- R. Ramirez relieved J. Sanchez
- S. Victorino sacrificed to third, R. Oswalt to second
- C. Utley intentionally walked
- P. Polanco singled to shallow center, R. Oswalt scored, C. Utley to second
- J. Affeldt relieved R. Ramirez
- C. Utley stole third, P. Polanco stole second
- R. Howard struck out swinging
- J. Werth intentionally walked
- P. Sandoval at third
- S. Casilla relieved J. Affeldt
- J. Rollins doubled to deep center, C. Utley, P. Polanco and J. Werth scored
- R. Ibanez lined out to third

4 runs, 3 hits, 0 errors
San Francisco 1, Philadelphia 6

Don’t underestimate the difference the new lineup made, as it obviously made Bochy’s life difficult in the seventh inning Sunday night (and then he went and made some dubious decisions of his own). Now it’s clear that he’ll have to use both of his lefties to get through the heart of the order late in game three, provided his starter once again gets the job done against the new-look lineup.

I watched Ron Washington’s Game 5 post game press conference and he stated the following:

We have a very aggressive team, and tonight we took advantage of some things, a ground ball double play Vladimir [Guerrero]. What else do we have to do but come around the bag and keep running? If it’s a double play, the inning is over anyway.

I thought Vlad had slowed down when rounding third base, so I went back and looked at the video to see if Vlad was hustling the entire time to get home or was he waiting to see how the play at first base unfolded.

The video of the play does give a few hints confirming if Vlad was heading home once he left second base as Ron Washington stated or was Vlad looking for some other clue to go home.

First of all, there was no visual clues that third base coach, Dave Anderson, was sending Vlad home as soon as he left second base (45 seconds into the video).

No arms windmilling- nothing. Anderson simplywalks slowly closer to third base.

Second, Vlad is not hustling home with 100% effort like Ron Washington mentioned in the press conference. About three steps from third base he begins to slow down to a jog and continues at this pace for few steps after touching third base. During this same time he is watching the play at first base unfold.

Finally, Vlad never actually put his head down and ran home with 100% effort until he saw Kinsler was safe at first base.

I am not sure what event that actually caused him to decide to head home with 100% effort. I first thought he may have been too far off the bag to make it back to third base safely if David Price decided to throw to third base, so Vlad decided to try to score. After watching the video a few times, I think he could have easily made it back to third base.

Maybe it was Texas’s plan to have their runners always round third base on possible double plays with one out and try to score. If this was the case, I think Dave Anderson would have been waving Vlad home once the ball was thrown to first. Instead, both seemed to be watching the the play at first base.

I actually think either Vlad and/or Dave Anderson knew that David Price had a propensity to ignore base runners when covering first base as seen earlier in the game. Once they saw that Ian Kinsler was safe and Price had his back to the play, Vlad headed home to try to score. There is no way from the footage to tell which one made the decision. Anderson was about 6 feet away from Vlad when Vlad decided to head home. He could have easily kept the instructions somewhat quiet in order for David Price not to hear them or Vlad could have made the decision on his own. There is just no way to tell either way for sure.

Ron Washington can claim that Vlad was heading home no matter what due to the Rangers aggressive base running, but I don’t think that is the case on this play. Instead it was a heads up play by some combination of the base runner Vladimir Guerrero and the third base coach Dave Anderson.

Cliff Lee was masterful once again, making it the fourth time (of five matchups) that he struck out double digit Rays. He’s going to be the story of this game (hell, this series) and rightfully so. It’s hard to think Lee isn’t the best pitcher in the American League right now – and that’s not just because only two teams remain.

The other big plays involved baserunning. Let’s give them each a quick look:

1) Elvis Andrus scoring from second on a groundball to first base

Carlos Pena picked up the ball and flipped it to David Price. By the time Price heard Evan Longoria screaming to throw it home, Andrus was successfully across the plate. Rangers up 1-to-0 after three batters. The gain here is .041 despite an out being made on the play. Pretty nifty, considering Andrus also added .035 WPA on his single and .015 on a stolen base.

2) Nelson Cruz scoring from second on an error by Kelly Shoppach

Cruz took the weirdest route of the three. After driving a ball to the deepest portion of the park (and admiring it so), Cruz had to hustle to get into second base after the ball hit off the wall. He then took off for third base on a steal attempt and got up to run home after Shoppach’s throw sailed into left field. Just like that, the Rangers regained the lead. Add .027 WPA on the double and .099 on the steal and further advance.

3) Vladimir Guerrero scoring from second base on a grounder to first base

Price received the ball at first again, but this time argued with the umpire on the safe call before turning and firing home. Guerrero slid in before Shoppach could apply the tag and the most unlikely of events put the Rangers up by two in the sixth. Add .057 on this play.

That’s .206 WPA off baserunning and .477 for Lee, or about 70% of the win.

Congrats to the Rangers, who now advance to the ALCS.

The San Francisco Giants didn’t exactly take Game 4 in convincing fashion, but was able to capitalize on timely hitting on rare opportunities. When it looked like Derek Lowe was on a roll after five no-hit innings, unheralded Cody Ross (+28.9% WPA) swung at a first-pitch hanging slider, hitting a line drive to left field for a solo homerun. Lowe had been all over the Giants all day, inducing 14 swinging strikes over the first five no-hit innings, 10 of them being sliders by my count.

When Lowe struggled locating his sinker in the 7th inning after pitching two out of the last three starts on short rest, the Giants’ lineup exhibited rare patience. An Aubrey Huff (+4.9% WPA) walk followed by a Buster Posey single called for what turned out to be Bobby Cox‘s last mound visit. Lowe insisted that he could finish the inning, but still could not locate the sinker against Pat Burrell (+8.2% WPA), who kept his bat on his shoulders for five pitches, drawing a walk to load the bases. A possible double play groundball from Juan Uribe (+15.3% WPA) wasn’t converted by Alex Gonzalez, allowing Huff to score the tying run.

Cox then elected to bring in Jonny Venters, striking out Aaron Rowand for the second out. But Cody Ross had adjusted his approach to a more aggressive one, hitting a sharp grounder on the second pitch to score Posey. As a recap of the top of the 7th inning, the Giants waited for pitches to hit when Lowe was off-target for the first time all day, and responded to another Braves’ infield error by driving in the winning run, a sequence of classic playoff baseball.

The Braves’ offense was not ready to give up, however. Brian Wilson came to close out the bottom of the 9th with a 3-2 lead, but struggled to find the strike zone throwing multiple fastballs. Two good at-bats by Rick Ankiel and Eric Hinske led to back-to-back walks. But Wilson adjusted his approach against Omar Infante, throwing several outside sliders to get Infante to strike out swinging. And it was the slider that Melky Cabrera grounded out off of for the final out, thrusting the Giants into the NLCS against the Phillies.

For the series, the Giants’ starting pitching has been phenomenal. Madison Bumgarner‘s Game 4 start is not to be overlooked, as he struck out five and allowed two earned runs in an efficient six innings on 85 pitches. In hindsight, Bruce Bochy made a wise decision electing to go with Bumgarner instead of Tim Lincecum on short rest, setting the stage for the ultimate pitching matchup against Roy Halladay in Game 1 of the NLCS.

The Giants’ offense, for the most of the series, succeeded by taking advantage of rare opportunities. In Game 1, it was Ross who drove in a run after an intentional walk to Pablo Sandoval. In Game 3, it was several Brooks Conrad errors. In Game 4, it was Ross yet again with timely hits against Lowe and Venters. The Giants did not exhibit much power in the series, and credit goes to the Braves’ pitching staff for much of that. The lack of power will be a major problem against the Phillies in the NLCS this weekend, but for now, Giants’ fans will celebrate and take their first playoff win in eight years.

I’ll admit it: I lost this debate to the inimitable Carson Cistulli. What can I say, I was no master debater back in the day, nor had I ever tried the Lincoln-Douglas format. Excuses, excuses, excuses. I know.

What was so flustering was that the Phillies felt like the right pick. But when the numbers were parsed, there were few numbers that were definitively in favor of the team from Philadelphia. Carson was right – overall WAR, UZR, wOBA, they all pointed towards Dusty Baker’s team. I was forced to tickle the numbers until they laughed the right name, and was called out on it. The strange thing? Perhaps the actual, you know, real-life games proved me correct.

Let’s review my seemingly untenable positions:

1) The Phillies’ starting rotation is too strong for the Reds.
Well, like, duh. Not only did all the numbers show it before they played, but their performances did as well. Three games and the new Big Three produced 23 innings, 4 runs allowed (3 earned), 22 strikeouts, 2 walks, and 30/18 groundballs to flyballs. That’s “pretty good,” and it minimized the edge the Reds had in the pen. This edge probably was enough to ignore many of the other edges that went Red, but it’s unclear why that would be, given the pie chart that goes into every game. More on that later.

2) The Phillies’ lineup is deeper.
Defining something like ‘deeper’ is tough, but it does seem that the Phillies lineup was more balanced. Facing Raul Ibanez and Carlos Ruiz as the seventh and eighth hitters is far less exciting than facing Orlando Cabrera and either of the Reds’ catchers, right? Philadelphia hit .212 for the series, and the Reds .124. Batting average isn’t a great indicator of course, but in this case it does a quick-and-dirty job of portraying the differences between the teams’ lineups and how they fared in this short series. But again, bullet point one is probably at fault here.

3) The Phillies’ bullpen is better, specifically at closer.
Well, this one didn’t necessarily go my way, but only because the Phillies’ starters didn’t give em much of a chance to show their mettle. They pitched 4 innings total in the three games, and allowed no runs and 1 hit, with 2 strikeouts and 2 walks. The Reds? 10 innings with 4 runs, (1 earned), 8 hits, 7 strikeouts and 4 walks. Advantage; some shade red, but mostly made irrelevant by bullet point one.

The last idea, and it probably doesn’t deserve a bullet point because it’s not something rooted in fancy baubles like “theory” or “proof,” held that perhaps the Phillies owned the star power over the Reds. (Another possibly un-definable term in my favor? Awesome.) But we’ve now seen Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels shine bright while Roy Oswalt, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard got the job done – and on the other side of the ledger, the Reds failed to receive a singular, extraordinary performance from any of their main players. It’s not very ‘Sabre’ to say this, but is it possible that in the slimmed-down post-season things like a deep roster, good defensive pieces and nice middle relief become a little less impressive or important?

Oh, the game? Well, the game was all Hamels. There’s not much else to say when he’s got the changeup dancing like that. That, some good defensive play from Shane Victorino, and a solo home run from Utley, and you’ve basically got enough to say “ballgame” and “series.”

Dusty Baker got seven innings with one earned run (two total) by using Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey just about perfectly, and made the most of his bullpen the rest of the way – and still lost. Though the Reds lineup may have showed better regular-season wOBAs, in this small sample, only Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce were able to bat above the Mendoza line. Baker may have made some bad tactical moves over the series, and Dave may yet come with some heat in that area, but it seems the players played out this best-of-five and the Reds came up short. It was still a great year for them and they should be proud of the larger sample size.

Another Giants-Braves matchup, another one-run game. Unlike Friday’s splash hit special though, the drama ultimately went in San Francisco’s direction this time.

Through the seventh inning, I expected I’d mostly be writing about Jonathan Sanchez‘s terrific performance. Sanchez’s first seven innings were reminiscent of Tim Lincecum‘s outstanding series opener: he was a little shaky with his command in the first inning, but then settled into a groove and dominated. After a first inning walk to Derek Lee, he didn’t allow a hard-hit ball until Matt Diaz‘s flyout to right in the fifth, and didn’t allow a hit until Tim Hudson‘s soft line drive single in the sixth. Along the way, Sanchez struck out 11 and had retired 14 consecutive batters at one point.

Meanwhile, back on offense, the Giants couldn’t manage much more than an assortment of walks and groundballs against Hudson. The lone run they provided in support of Sanchez came courtesy of two shadow-assisted dropped flyballs; one by the soon-to-be infamous Brooks Conrad, whom we’ll get to in a moment.

Then came the second thing I thought I’d be writing about, the Braves comeback in the bottom of the eight. With a runner on and 105 pitches on his arm, Bruce Bochy pulled Sanchez for Sergio Romo. Here are my notes from the inning:

bot 8
2nd hit for ATL, sharp liner by Gonzales
Conrad with a chance to be a hero flubs a bunt
Glaus hitting for Ankiel
Romo in for Jonathan; gutsy move by Boch
Hinske in for Glaus
Hinske HR
Braves lead 2-1

I heard someone on the radio this morning quote Bochy as saying he was going to play the matchups from the sixth inning onward today, and in this case it obviously backfired as Bobby Cox had an extra bat. I usually try not to second guess managers, but for me it was a questionable call at the time, as the Braves hadn’t done anything with Sanchez and Romo had a rough outing on Friday.

Bochy stuck with his guys in the ninth inning, and didn’t use a pinch hitter other than Travis Ishikawa in the pitcher’s spot, while Cox worked his way through three pitchers. The Giants managed to keep runners on base long enough for Buster Posey to find Conrad with a hard groundball. In what seemed like an act of destiny, Conrad let the ball sail through the five-hole, giving Freddy Sanchez plenty of time to score the eventual winning run from second.

Which brings us to the third thing I thought I’d be writing about: Conrad’s defense. I was fully prepared to stick up for Conrad a bit here, particularly over the dropped flyball, but that last error was really inexcusable for a major league player in the post-season. The ball was hit right to him and the game was on the line; if he had even kept the ball in the infield it would have likely been a different game.

All in all though, it was the the third great game of the series.

The Rays got on the scoreboard first in a game. Notable because in the previous three games, they had trailed before scoring their first run (or in game two’s case: when they thought about scoring a run).

Carlos Pena took a lot of heat for his awful performance in game one. Joe Maddon did not start him in game two against C.J. Wilson. Without much in the way of alternatives, Maddon had to throw Pena back in there against the righties in this series and hope the trust and larger sample size would prevail. Sure enough, Pena hit a triple in his first plate appearance today and a double in his second. Giving him a hit of each base variety over his last four plate appearances and giving the Rays a 1-0 lead after Matt Joyce’s blooper dropped in (credited as an error to Ian Kinsler).

Pena would spark another run in the fourth, hitting the second of back-to-back doubles alongside Evan Longoria. B.J. Upton would double two batters later, giving the Rays a 3-0 lead. Longoria would hit a two-run homer in the fifth and the Rays would have five runs on the day and 11 in the last two games —not bad for a team that managed a run in its first 18 innings this postseason.

Wade Davis had a strong start himself by going five, allowing seven hits, a homer, walking three, and striking out seven Rangers. Davis flashed heat and solid breaking stuff throughout along with some conviction. That’s often an overstated part of pitching and one heavily based upon outcomes, but he showed little fear or self-doubt while challenging Josh Hamilton (with a base open) or Vladimir Guerrero (with the bases loaded). A spotless start it was not, however not a bad way to begin a postseason career, and not a bad way to potentially wrap his first full season in the bigs.

The two teams will take a travel day tomorrow and meet one last time in St. Petersburg on Tuesday night. That’s right, it’ll be a night game for the first time in the series. The probable matchup is David Price and Cliff Lee for the third time this season, with the two teams splitting the first two affairs.

The only thing different about this one was that the Twins didn’t take an early lead. In their previous five postseason meetings the Twins scored early only to lose the game. The Yankees jumped out in this one and never looked back. The built up a 5-0 lead by the fourth, which was more then enough to secure the series victory. It was the Yankees’ ninth straight postseason win against the Twins.

In his first playoff start Phil Hughes starred. He had pitched 12 postseason innings previously, but all in relief. In 2007 he came on in relief of Roger Clemens, who left the game with an injury in the third inning. Hughes pitched 3.2 scoreless innings, striking out four and holding down the Indians while the Yankees took the lead. Last season he pitched in all three rounds, but ended up allowing six runs in 6.1 innings. Last night he’d eclipse his 2009 postseason innings total.

Hughes faced 25 batters through seven innings, using 99 pitches to dispatch 21 Twins. Only five opponents reached base on him, four on singles and one via a walk. The first one who reached, Denard Span in the fourth, was immediately erased on a double play. That came off the bat of Orlando Hudson, and was the biggest out of the game, -9 percent WPA. After that the Yankees broke open the game, and Hughes never again pitched with a WE of under 90 percent.

The only remotely interesting situation after the fifth came in the top of the eighth. Kerry Wood, working for the third time in the series, started by allowing a double to Danny Valencia. Two batters later Span moved him to third with a single, and then Hudson singled him home. But with five more runs to make up and just five outs with which to score them, that barely put a dent in the WE. It got as low as 93.3 percent when Wood walked Joe Mauer, but was quickly back up over 99 percent when Boone Logan and David Robertson induced fly outs to end the inning.

Only one play in this game produced a WPA of over 10 percent. That was Marcus Thames‘s home run to right-center in the fifth inning. That gave the Yankees a 4-0 lead. Thames hit 12 home runs in the regular season, none of them to the opposite field. In fact, only three of them were even to left-center (though our splits classify one as center field).

With the win the Yankees are the first team in the League Championship Series. They’ll wait until Friday, when they’ll travel to either St. Petersburg or Arlington for the start of a best-of-seven series.

For the first five innings, this game felt like a direct-to-DVD sequel to the previous two in the series. The Rays stranded baseruners and allowed a run on usual circumstances. In the sixth, everything we came to expect was turned upside down.

Joe Maddon allowed his lefty bats to stay in against lefty Derek Holland. Matt Joyce reached on a fielder’s choice and Dan Johnson followed with a single. Normally this would mean two on with one out and Carlos Pena coming to the dish. Instead, Joyce rounded second aggressively, allowing Nelson Cruz to gun a perfect throw to second base for the tag on the retreating Joyce. Pena walked and Ron Washington quickly yanked Holland in exchange for the flamethrowing Alexi Ogando. B.J. Upton’s rough series (0-10 to this point) witnessed a reprieve as he sent a ball into left field, tying the game and taking his throne as the Fresh Prince of Bay Air.

Matt Garza escaped a potential explosive situation a half inning later, retiring Nelson Cruz with two on and two out with an assist to a diving Jason Bartlett. Right place, right time for Bartlett, who seemingly tagged a sliding Elvis Andrus on a stolen base attempt earlier in the inning; Andrus was called safe, but replays later showed that he was indeed off the base at the time of the tag.

Ian Kinsler led off the bottom of the seventh with a homer and the reality of elimination became distinct once again. Then Dan Johnson came once more. The Great Pumpkin sent a Darren Oliver ball deep into right field. Free agent to be Carlos Pena connected with a single to right and again the equalizer scored. With two outs and Bartlett due up, Ron Washington went to his bullpen for closer Neftali Feliz. After walking Bartlett, John Jaso hit a ball to center that scored Pena. Jaso advanced to second and slid so hard that he uprooted the base.

Consecutive plays untethered the binding ropes of fear from the hands of Rays’ fans throughout the land. Carl Crawford’s going away party would not happen tonight and would not happen on a silent note. After robbing draft classmate Josh Hamilton on a difficult to field ball in left field, Crawford led off the ninth with a home run. Widening the Rays’ lead and chasing Feliz. Shortly thereafter, Pena made his presence felt once more and blasted a ball deep into the Texas’ night.

Rafael Soriano would enter and close the door. The Rays survive to play at least one more game. Game four’s probable matchup remains Wade Davis and Tommy Hunter.

Heard this: Rick Ankiel prolly made himself another $5-$7 million dollars last night. This jibes with what anonymous scouts are saying — the energy and competitiveness of this series has to be largely credited to Ankiel and the other former Royals prominently involved.

That probably makes about as much sense as anything else after last night’s 5-4, extra-inning victory by the Braves over the Giants. Going into the game, Matt Cain and Tommy Hanson seemed to be quite evenly matched when looking at their current season stats and their recent CHONE projections (3.88 projected nERA for Cain, 3.86 for Hanson). The game didn’t play out that way. Pat Burrell opened the scoring with a three-run shot off of Hanson in the first that was good for about a 25 percent jump in win expectancy. Given the way Cain was dealing, it looked like that homer was going to be more than enough even without the additional run driven in by Cain himself in the second. Other than the home run, Hanson wasn’t horrible, although he wasn’t impressive either, and understandably got pulled for a pinch-hitter in the top of the fifth. Cain finally gave up a run in the sixth inning, but for the most part had the Braves easily in hand when he was pulled with two outs in the seventh. Up to that point, the Braves looked mostly helpless at the plate, and the Giants’ Win Expectancy was up at around 95% despite being shut down by an impressive stream of Atlanta relievers for the second straight game.

The game began to unravel for the Giants in the eighth. It is difficult to blame it on their tactics, however. Sergio Romo came in to pitch in the top of the eighth and promptly gave up singles to Derek Lee and McCann. Romo was still a good choice, as he is a dominating strikeout pitcher, avoids walks well, and his flyball tendencies are offset by the nature of the park. Bruce Bochy also made the right call to bring in closer Brian Wilson for a two-inning save at this point. The leverage index (LI) was as higher than it had been all game to that point — Wilson’s pLI for the game ended up being 2.59 — and that is the best way to maximize a relief ace’s outings. It didn’t work out, but it was the right decision. The Giants’ infield didn’t do Wilson any favors, as a throwing error by third baseman Pablo Sandoval allowed Melky Cabrera, one-third (along with Nate McLouth and Rick Ankiel [more on him in a minute...]) of the Braves’ Disaster Trio to reach first, scoring Lee. After a sacrifice bunt, the Braves tied the game on an Alex Gonzalez double that drove in two more runs. Wilson finished the inning and retired the side in the ninth, as well.

The extra innings were bizarrely dramatic. Former Royal and personal favorite Ramon Ramirez dispatched the Braves in the top of the 10th, and in the bottom half, San Francisco again looked poised to put the game away. It was potentially (and still may turn out to be) a disastrous inning for the Braves, as Billy Wagner injured his oblique after successfully fielding Andres Torres‘ sacrifice bunt that moved Edgar Renteria to second base, forcing the Braves to bring in everyone’s favorite high leverage reliever: Kyle Farnsworth. Good news, everyone! Professor Farnsworth did not disappoint, drilling Freddy Sanchez and then walking Aubrey Huff to load the bases with one out and Buster Posey coming to the plate. What happened next upped the SI (Surrealism Index) considerably, with Posey hitting a grounder to nominal third baseman Troy Glaus (yes, he’s still alive), who, rather than getting the runner at home, made the daring decision to start the double play… and it worked to the tune of a 33 percent shift in win expectancy.

It would be hard to top that, but Rick Ankiel’s game-winning shot off of Ramon Ramirez managed to do so. One could make criticisms of Bochy’s leaving Ramirez in the game, at least for that plate appearance, but none of them are devastating. Ankiel does have a pretty large platoon split, so maybe bringing in, say, Jeremy Affeldt in to face Ankiel might have been the right move, but Ramirez himself doesn’t have a huge platoon split for his career. Moreover, Affeldt hasn’t been that great this season, and even with the platoon advantage Rick Ankiel is still Rick Ankiel. Perhaps more worrisome would be that Ramirez gives up a lot of fly balls, and power is probably Ankiel’s only skill (albeit one mostly hidden the last two seasons) at the plate, but there was a much greater chance of Ankiel making an out than hitting it out, and the park deflates home run/fly ball rates. Still, the bullpen was rested from not having to work the previous night, and had the next game off — so there was no reason to be stingy with reliever usage. In any case, things obviously didn’t work out for the Giants, and Ankiel sent one into the water. Even The Professor adding a bit of drama by allowing a baserunner in the bottom of the 11th couldn’t top that drama. The only thing keeping this game from aesthetic perfection was that Jose Guillen wasn’t available to ground into a game-ending double play.

The Giants have good reason to think they should be up two games after one great and one good performance from their starting pitchers against a decimated Braves lineup. Thanks in large part to a contingent of former Kansas City Royals on both sides, they’ll be heading to Atlanta with the series tied.

Well, as improbable as it was, this game did not turn out exactly like Carson Cistulli drew it up. Roy Oswalt did not strike out fifteen batters and hold the Reds scoreless, and Scott Rolen did not hit a home run off of Jose Contreras. And instead of two homers, Chase Utley hit no homers.

The funny thing? The Phillies still won and Bronson Arroyo actually pitched as decently as was predicted. What if Sports had Arroyo going seven innings with a strikeout, a walk and three runs allowed on five hits, and he actually allowed two (unearned) runs in five and a third innings with two strikeouts, three walks and four hits allowed. I mean, that’s not bad for literally trying to predict the future down to the hit batsman. Despite the awesome leg kick, and kicking tunes, Arroyo’s stuff was not of the shut-down variety (two swinging strikes all game). He gamed through it, gritting and grission-ing his team to a lead.

Arroyo may not have been as good as the typical game story may suggest, but the task at hand is to think about this from the Phillies’ angle. And really, was Oswalt’s night deserving of so much better? I mean, yes he had better ‘stuff’ and more swinging strikes (nine of them!) and was right around the zone all night (only one walk, and no pitches that were a foot-plus out of the zone like Arroyo had), but he also grooved a few many straight down Broadway. Those home runs to Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce happened, we can’t xFIP them away despite Oswalt having a decent groundball-to-flyball ratio (6-to-7).

Though Jimmy Rollins was oh-for-the-series, and ‘failed’ once again in a key position (one down, tying runs on base in the 7th inning, the third-highest leverage index moment of the game), his soft flyball to Jay Bruce (a +18.9 Right Fielder this year according to UZR) was muffed about a billion times, and suddenly Rollins looks like a hero to Oswalt’s zero. Seriously, Bruce missed a play he should have had 95+ times out of a 100 (or, rather, 256 in 259 times), then screwed up the throw, the relay was punted, and Rollins stands on second with the crowd roaring. Rollins gets a .352 WPA for the play, Oswalt a -.152 for his five innings, three run effort. Sometimes WPA doesn’t tell the whole story.

The Reds, the better fielding team going in, fell apart and made a division-series-record four errors in a game they should or could have won. Or: The Phillies put the ball in play against a Reds’ staff that only struck out four in nine innings – putting pressure on the defense, which lead to five unearned runs and a win. Two ways to tell the story once again, but as happy as the Phils may be, they have to know that a good amount of luck helped them along their way on Friday night.

In another universe, in another iteration of this game, Oswalt pitched a second-straight no-hitter and the Phillies beat up on Arroyo. Same result, I guess. Phillies up 2-0 and a step away from the NLCS.

Two stories stand out in what was quietly the most competitive game of the playoffs so far: Tim Lincecum‘s dominance, and a crucial blown call.

As several people pointed out in the immediate aftermath, Tim Lincecum’s game score of 96 was actually higher than Roy Halladay‘s 94 in his no-hitter against Reds on Wednesday. This isn’t an endorsement of game score, but does make one think. After all, is a complete game two-hitter really that much less impressive than a no-hitter for a pitcher, given all the variables (fielders, “bad bounces,” ballparks, weather conditions, etc.) that go into the destiny of batted balls? While Lincecum gave up two hits to Halladay’s zero, Lincecum also struck out 14 to Doc’s 8. Then again, 10 of Lincecum’s batted balls were flylballs while 12 of Halladay’s 19 were grounders. I’m not choosing a side, and it doesn’t really matter. Halladay’s game will justifiably go down as one of the greatest in playoff history, but Lincecum’s should get at least a footnote.

Lincecum’s dominance made it seem as if the Giants were running away with the game, but, of course, they only won 1-0. As noted in the preview, Derek Lowe is no slouch. While Halladay’s no-hitter led fans to dub the playoffs “Doctober,” (a meme that became irritating about 15 minutes after it began) Braves starter Derek Lowe made a reasonable case for OctLOWEber, striking out 6 and (more impressively) getting 11 ground balls on 13 balls in play before getting pulled after five-and-a-third. For all the helplessness the Braves offense displayed, the Giants weren’t exactly ripping the cover off of the ball. This should be troubling since, although Lowe is a good pitcher, he’s probably only Atlanta’s third-best starter. Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson aren’t going to make things any easier on the Giants hitters.

Unfortunately, the best game of the playoffs so far was marred by a blown call that set up the only (and thus deciding) run scored in the game. Leaving aside the larger discussion of officiating going on elsewhere, let’s focus on the sequence of the half-inning, since it features not only an officiating blunder, but some “interesting” tactical decisions. Buster Posey singled to lead off the bottom of the fourth. With one on and no outs, and Pat Burrell at the at the plate, either San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy (or perhaps Posey himself) decided it would be a good time to attempt a steal. Although Posey is probably faster than most other catchers, he’s no speed demon, and hasn’t successfully stolen a base in the majors this season. While Brian McCann isn’t Yadier Molina behind the plate, he’s not Ryan Doumit, either. Of course, it “worked” as Posey took the base, despite replays showing that he was tagged out. After Burrell struck out followed by a Juan Uribe whiff, Bobby Cox made a questionable decision to intentionally walk Pablo Sandoval in order to get Lowe the platoon advantage against Cody Ross (the double play potential is irrelevant with two outs), and Ross singled to score Posey for what turned out to be the game’s deciding run.

It’s worth running through the sequence less to emphasize the blown call (which was undoubtedly the key event in the game given what came after) or the curious tactical choices (Bochy kept it up by sending Aubrey Huff, of all people, in the ninth inning; he got gunned down by McCann). Rather, it again reinforces the reality of just how close this game really was, despite Lincecum blowing the Braves away left and right. Giants fans will justifiably remember Lincecum’s awesome performance for a long time. But given San Francisco’s own offensive impotence against the Braves third-best starter, it shouldn’t make them feel overly confident heading into Games Two and Three.