While playing competitive baseball the summer before I started high school I had a teammate named “Rusty” who always wore an Atlanta Braves baseball cap. Although he was the best hitter on the team he was constantly bombarded with ridicule because of his choice of chapeau. Atlanta was the bottom feeder in the National League and was coming off a 65-97 season, which saw them finish at least fifth in the six-team division for the sixth straight season. A funny thing happened in 1991, though. Atlanta got good. And stayed good for… well until today. The success of the organization has revolved around its ability to maintain strong pitching and currently has three of the best pitching prospects in the game – and that trio could be MLB-ready by the end of 2012. The minor league system also boasts some intriguing up-the-middle offensive talents.

1. Julio Teheran, RHP
BORN: Jan. 27, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2007 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st

Teheran leads the charge for Atlanta’s young arms. He attacks hitters with an explosive repertoire that screams future No. 1 starter… if he can polish one of his two breaking balls. His fastball, which can touch 96-97 mph, and changeup are both plus pitches at times and just need more consistency. Teheran has both above-average control and understanding of his craft for his age. He is a fly-ball pitcher but he does a nice job of keeping the ball in the park after allowing just five home runs in 144.2 innings at triple-A. Despite a strong changeup, Teheran struggled against left-handed batters (at least in comparison to right-handed hitters who hit .199) by allowing a .276 batting-average-against. He just recently turned 21 years old and already has 20 innings of big league experience under his belt. Atlanta has excellent pitching depth at the big league level so Teheran should receive some more seasoning at the triple-A level to begin 2012.

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After gaining significant helium during the 2010 off-season, prospect followers expected young left-hander Carlos Perez to firmly establish himself as the best of the next wave of young Braves pitchers. With Randall Delgado, Arodys Vizcaino, Julio Teheran and Mike Minor in the midst of breaking through at the Major League level, along with prospect fallout from the Michael Bourn deal, a void between what’s now and what’s next has developed.

By statistical measures, Carlos Perez had a marginally successful 2011 at best. Over 126 innings, he struck out nearly eight batters per nine innings and proved to be a durable starter whose innings needed to be monitored closely the final two months of the 2011 season to avoid overuse. Unfortunately, Perez also surrendered more hits than innings pitched and his poor walk rates led to the worst WHIP among qualified pitchers in the South Atlantic League.

Video after the jump

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The Seattle Mariners organization is loaded with high-ceiling pitching arms and could field one of the most potent pitching staffs in the game within the next two to three years. The club has done a great job of building an organizational strength that will thrive in its home environment. The front office spent time this past off-season answering questions about its future offense with the addition of Jesus Montero, one of the most potent bats in the minor leagues. The organization has some other interesting position players but a lot of them are raw and years away from helping out at the big league level.

1. Jesus Montero, C/DH
BORN: Nov. 28, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 5 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2006 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st (Yankees)

The Mariners organization acquired one of the top offensive prospects in baseball but it cost the organization dearly with pitchers Michael Pineda and Jose Campos heading to the New York Yankees. The Mariners front office suggests that Montero will continue to catch, although the general consensus remains that he’ll move to first base or designated hitter sooner rather than later. The right-handed hitter made his MLB debut in 2011 and showed the ability to hit for both power and average despite the fact he didn’t turn 22 until this past November. Despite his youth, Montero already has five years of pro experience, as well as two full seasons in triple-A. He’s ready for prime time and could be the Mariners best hitter in 2012 – as a rookie. The home ball park could hamper his numbers a bit but the all-star potential could be there for years to come.

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Over the weekend, I stumbled upon this article that quoted some thought-provoking numbers from agent Scott Boras. In the article, he voices his support for increased collegiate baseball scholarships and lays out a few statistics that his agency has unearthed:

• >>  79% of collegiate first-round draft picks reach the major leagues for at least one day.
• >>  62% of high school first-round draft picks reach the major leagues for at least one day.

That is a significant 17% difference, though not necessarily surprising. High school draftees come with increased risk. Generally, their skill sets remain more unrefined than their collegiate counterparts. Thus, predicting the future talent for those players becomes much more difficult. This uncertainty causes teams to miss on a greater portion of high school players.

So, what continues to draw teams into drafting a high school player over a collegiate player every year?

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Per the Urban Dictionary, the phrase “hot mess” means, “When ones thoughts or appearance are in a state of disarray, but they maintain an undeniable attractiveness or beauty.” When scouting Junior Lake during the Southern League playoffs, his game was part car wreck, but I simply could not help but be enamored with his tools. Rocket arm. Explosive hand speed. Plus runner. Other than the way he actually played baseball, there was nothing not to like.

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Boston Red Sox top prospect Bryce Brentz rebounded from a difficult short season debut in 2010 to explode for 30 home runs across two single-A levels during the 2011 season. His outburst has left prospect followers envisioning an answer to the Red Sox right field problem by as early as 2013. In scouting Brentz, the concept of age-versus-level is an important consideration as 22-year old high round college picks are generally expected to devour that level of competition. In Brentz’ case, the video game power numbers make it quite difficult to assess his true skill level and if/how his bat will play at the game’s highest level.

With this being keeper and dynasty league draft season, January/February of each year is really the only time I’ll binge on prospect lists to gain an edge come draft time. For the past few weeks, seeing Bryce Brentz listed on Red Sox top-10 lists was certainly not unexpected, but the number of overall top-100 rankings Brentz has achieved is borderline shocking. Is Brentz a “guy”? Sure, but the next contact I speak to who views him as an impact bat will be the first.

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Once upon a time the Los Angeles Dodgers organization was the envy of all the land… Oh, how times have changed. We all know about the controversy that has been swirling around the club for what seems like far too long and it may be some time before the Dodgers’ system once again receives the attention that it deserves. Ownership needs to commit to rebuilding the organization from the inside out and it has one of the best scouting directors in the business, Logan White, to lean on. The Dodgers organization does have some impressive arms but things fall off quickly after them.

1. Zach Lee, RHP
BORN: Sept. 13, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2010 1st round (28th overall), Texas HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 2nd

No one expected the hard-to-sign Lee to actually become a Dodger but the club got a deal done and he sits atop the prospect list just one year later. He spurned Louisiana State University where he would have played baseball while also possibly quarterbacking the football squad. Lee’s first season in the minors was a success. He posted a 3.68 FIP in 109 low-A innings while also striking out 7.51 batters per nine innings. Lee showed above-average control with a walk rate of just 2.64 walks per nine. His repertoire includes an 89-94 mph fastball, good curveball, slider and changeup. He could develop into a No. 1 or 2 starter if he continues on this path. The organization could make the bold move to jump Lee all the way to double-A if it wants him to avoid the California League. More likely than not, though, he could spend a short period in high-A before taking the leap.

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Despite graduating a few gems over the years, the Detroit Tigers organization is not known for focusing resource on developing in-house talent. The organization drafts rather conservatively (outside the couple of rounds, at least) and mostly uses its prospects as trade bait. With that said, this year’s Top 15 list has three players on the top of the list that could develop into above-average contributors in Detroit… if they’re not traded first.

1. Jacob Turner, RHP
BORN: May 21, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 1st round (9th overall), Missouri HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st

Turner’s name came up a lot this past off-season as team’s understandably coveted the right-hander in trade talks with Detroit. Standing 6’5” he has an impressive pitcher’s frame and should be durable as a big league starter once he fills out a bit more and gets stronger. He commands his fastball well, which can touch 94-95, and works down in the zone with it. His curveball and changeup both have the chance to develop into plus pitches, giving Turner the ceiling of a No. 2 starter. The right-hander may very well open 2012 in Detroit’s big league rotation after pitching much of ’11 in double-A and receiving three late-season starts in the Majors. Often likened to current Tigers pitcher Rick Porcello because they were both fast-moving, high draft picks, they’re really not that similar.

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The organization has some true star power at the top of its minor league depth chart but things begin to peter out after the Top 3 prospects and the cupboard is rather bare by the end of the Top 15. The downside to the system is that the majority of the high-ceiling talent is currently in A-ball or lower so it will be a little while before the fan base begins to reap the benefits of the organization’s renewed emphasis on in-house development.

1. Gerrit Cole, RHP
BORN: Sept. 8, 1990
EXPERIENCE: None
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (1st overall), UCLA
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

The Pirates organization entered the 2011 amateur draft in an enviable position with the first overall selection. The club had its pick from a number of high-ceiling players and ultimately chose Cole. It’s easy to see the move working out well for the organization as long as the right-hander can stay healthy (and there are no red flags… or even yellow for that matter). Cole, who has been a top prospect since his prep days and actually turned down the Yankees as a first rounder in ’08, has the chance to develop into a No. 1 starter and could get to Pittsburgh in short order. The California native’s repertoire includes two strikeout pitches: a 92-97 mph fastball and a slider. He also features a solid changeup. Expect Cole to open 2012 in either high-A or double-A and he could reach the Majors by year’s end – unless the club wants to be cautious with his service time.

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Prior to 2010, former Boston Red Sox and current Texas Rangers prospect Roman Mendez entered the season with significant helium. After falling flat in his first taste of the South Atlantic League, Mendez was dealt as part of a package for Jarrod Saltalamacchia and became a reclamation project for the Rangers organization.

Fast forward a season and Mendez is once again a pitching prospect to watch after posting a 3.06 FIP in Hickory including a stellar 10 strikeouts per nine innings. The young right hander also drastically improved his control as his walks per nine fell from nearly five in 2010 to a shade under three and a half this past season. With Mendez earning mid-summer buzz once again, I ventured three hours to Greenville to scout him versus Xander Bogaerts, Brandon Jacobs, and the rest of the single-A Red Sox.

Video after the jump

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On the tail end of my scouting trip to Savannah, having an opportunity to see the Lexington Legends was well worth extending my stay considering the potential to scout three of the Houston Astros first round picks in second baseman Delino DeShields Jr., third baseman Mike Kvasnicka and pitcher Mike Foltynewicz. And while “Folty” was not in the cards, the two first rounders, power hitting first baseman Telvin Nash, as well as former second round center fielder Jay Austin provided me with considerable video and scouting material.

With the late 1980′s and early 1990′s serving as my prime in terms of baseball card collecting, I’m no stranger to Delino DeShields Sr. wreaking havoc on the base paths for a handful of teams including the now defunct Expos, Dodgers, Cardinals and Orioles. In Deshields Jr., both father and son share the same defensive position, approximate draft slot and reputations as speedsters. However, it was fascinating to see just how different father and son were in terms of body type and fluidity of movement. In reflecting on both, the comps to one another seem quite lazy once tools and skills are actually considered.

Video after the jump

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Fans can say what they will about the Jays efforts in attracting big ticket free agents but there aren’t many organizations in baseball that can match Toronto’s dedication to scouting and player development. Since taking over the general manager’s role, Alex Anthopoulos has rejuvenated the minor league system – through trades, the draft and international free agency – and the the efforts are about to bear fruit with numerous prospects nearing graduation.

1. Anthony Gose, OF
BORN: Aug. 10, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 2nd round, California HS (by Phillies)
2010-11 TOP 30 RANKING: 11th

Gose narrowly edges d’Arnaud for top spot on the Jays list because of his potential as a four-tool player (The hit tool is the only non-plus). The outfielder has an exciting mix of speed, power, arm strength and overall center-field defense that is hard to find. Previously more of a singles hitter, the Jays player development staff had Gose focus more on driving the ball at double-A in 2011 and his ISO rate rose form .122 with the Phillies organization in ’10 to .161. Gose struggles to make consistent contact and posted a strikeout rate of 26% in ’11. His willingness to take walks (10.6 BB%) helps to make up for the low batting average and allowed him to attempt 84 stolen bases (He was successful 69 times). I’ve been cautious with my rankings of Gose in the past but I’m becoming a believer as he continues to show improvements as he climbs the minor league ladder.

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The San Diego system is deep. What’s most impressive is that the organization has been able to bulk up its minor league depth through a variety of methods: drafting, international free agency and trades. In particular, scouting director Jaron Madison had an outstanding draft in 2011. Even with the loss of some of its front office talent much more remains. The loss of young hurler Mat Latos through a trade with Cincinnati was a ballsy move and it stings a little but the organization is ultimately stronger for it. This is an organization on the upswing.

1. Yonder Alonso, 1B
BORN: April 8, 1987
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 1st round (7th overall), University of Miami (by Cincinnati)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 5th (Reds)

With the recent trade of fellow first base prospect Anthony Rizzo to the Chicago Cubs, Alonso is set to be San Diego’s starting first baseman in 2012. His ability to use the entire field and provide opposite-field pop will suit him well in his new ball park. Although he doesn’t have prototypical power (His power grades a 50), Alonso has the ability to hit for average and he has a strong eye at the plate that leads to a healthy number of walks. No longer blocked by Joey Votto in Cincinnati, the ugly experiment of placing Alonso is left field is over. He’ll return to his natural position of first base for the Padres, where he could eventually provide average to slightly-above-average defense at the position.

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The Texas Rangers organization is solid top to bottom with both high-ceiling talents and depth. In looking at the Top 10 prospects we can see that the organization’s main strengths are pitching and up-the-middle offensive players.

1. Jurickson Profar, SS
BORN: Feb. 20, 1993
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st

The Rangers organization already has a dynamic young shortstop in Elvis Andrus but Profar gives them a second potential all star player at that position. In fact, he has the potential to be even better than the incumbent. Playing well below the league average age in ’11, Profar showed an outstanding understanding of the strike zone, and he showed his advanced understanding of the game by going to the plate with an idea of what he wanted to do. In the field, the young player has a strong arm and excellent range. He could develop into a plus defender in time. Look for Profar to begin 2012 in high-A ball but he could see double-A by mid-season.

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By any statistical measure, Pirates pitching phenom Jameson Taillon‘s 2011 was a success. Strong strikeout rates, low walk rates and less than a hit per inning leaves both Pittsburgh and prospect fans in general excited about his developing into the organization’s first top flight starter since Doug Drabek nearly two decades ago (Gerrit Cole has some say in this as well).

Did Taillon impress in person? Most definitely, but the young right-hander scouted quite differently than the numbers indicate. Taillon was actually quite raw and requires considerable refinement even though the numbers say otherwise.

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When the Seattle Mariners dealt left-hander Cliff Lee to the Texas Rangers for a package centered around first baseman Justin Smoak, my initial reaction was surprise – the New York Yankees were in the hunt and had apparently offered their top prospect, only to be rebuffed at the 11th hour. In March, a spring training piece I wrote on Montero included even stronger sentiment:

Jesus Montero has a chance to have a very special career for the New York Yankees, or any franchise he may be dealt to. Personally, I thought the Seattle Mariners were nuts for wanting Justin Smoak over Jesus Montero at the trade deadline last season.

Having never had the opportunity to scout Smoak in person, my frame of reference for discussing Smoak became Montero as he still ranks as the best pure hitting prospect I’ve had the opportunity to scout.

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Colorado Rockies 2010 first round pick Kyle Parker posted impressive power numbers, but lofty strikeout totals in his full season debut in the South Atlantic League. Given his being age appropriate for the level, if not a touch long in the tooth, Parker’s triple slash line of .285/.367/.483 appears better on paper than in practice as his 132/48 strikeout-to-walk ratio and .353 BABIP point to a prospect whose success has a bit of a “Smoke and Mirrors” feel.

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The Mets system is hurt by a lack of depth. It has some very nice arms in Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey and Jeurys Familia, but things begin to fall off quickly after that. The offensive prospects, in particular, come with a lot of question marks.

1. Zack Wheeler, RHP
BORN: May 30, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 1st round (6th overall), Georgia HS (by San Francisco)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 2nd (San Francisco)

SCOUTING REPORT: A half year of veteran outfielder Carlos Beltran cost the San Francisco Giants dearly when they shipped Wheeler to the east coast. The right-hander instantly became the organization’s No. 1 prospect, narrowly edging Matt Harvey for the distinction. Wheeler’s repertoire includes a 91-95 mph fastball that can touch the upper 90s, a potentially-plus curveball and two developing pitches: a changeup and a cutter.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Wheeler had little to no issues with high-A ball during his first true full season in the minors. He struggled a bit with his control while pitching in the Giants organization (4.81 BB/9 in 88 IP) but made some minor adjustments with the Mets and showed improvement, albeit in a small sample size (1.67 BB/9 in 27 IP). He has yet to see his strikeout rate dip below 10.00 K/9 in his career. After posting an outstanding ground-ball rate in ’10, Wheeler’s became more of a fly-ball pitcher in ’11; it would be nice to see him work the lower half of the strike zone more consistently.

YEAR AHEAD: Wheeler is ready for the challenge of double-A and he should spend the majority of the season at that level. The organization may be tempted to call on him if the starting rotation struggles but he could use another full season in the minors before facing big league hitters.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Beltran compiled 1.2 WAR in 44 games with the Giants before jumping ship for a lucrative two-year contract with the St. Louis Cardinals. Assuming he stays healthy, Wheeler will have no issues surpassing the value (possibly in his rookie season) that the Giants organization squeezed out of Beltran. Wheeler has a legitimate shot at becoming a No. 1 or 2 starter at the MLB level.

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In 2011, Hickory was a hotbed of minor league talent including the best true shortstop prospect in baseball and multiple first round picks in catcher Kellin Deglan, center fielder Jake Skole and pitcher Luke Jackson. If not for being blown away by Boston Red Sox shortstop prospect Xander Bogaerts, my trip to Greenville would have been highlighted by a modestly performing, all but unknown third base prospect named Christian Villanueva. Villanueva went on to belt 10 home runs and steal 14/15 bases over the final two months of the season raising his prospect profile to legitimate sleeper.

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Boston Red Sox minor league second baseman Sean Coyle is a solid minor league prospect which is actually pretty rare for a player of his stature. In fact, in three years spent Scouting the Sally, only a handful of prospects have been worthy of more than a cursory look (Jose Altuve – HOU, Leury Garcia – TEX, Wilfredo Tovar – NYM) which speaks volumes about Coyle as a baseball player. However, as kind as it may seem on the surface to compare the best second baseman in the Red Sox system to the best second baseman in baseball – organization mate Dustin Pedroia – it’s pretty unfair to both players.

Video after the jump

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