The Reds’ plans for Aroldis Chapman‘s role on the team have never really appeared to be fully fleshed out. First he was supposed to be a starter, but then team needs for the 2010 playoff run required another reliever. The opportunity to move him back into the rotation has never been seized since, and although there was much discussion of Chapman as the Reds’ fifth starter this season, he’s remained in the bullpen for the entire year. Starting remains an option for 24-year-old, and probably the best one for the team. If the Reds are going to keep Chapman in the bullpen, however, his usage so far this season serves as excellent blueprint.

Read the rest of this entry »

It has been a good week to be a second baseman. On the heels of Ian Kinsler‘s big extension with the Rangers, Brandon Phillips received a roughly similar six-year, $72.5 million deal from the Cincinnati Reds. Unlike Kinsler’s five-year contract, which begins after this season, Phillips’ new contract begins this year. Does this make sense for the team given the Reds current situation?

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been 27 months since the Reds signed Aroldis Chapman to that six-year, $30.25 million contract, but he still has yet to make a start for them. That’s not entirely his fault however, as the club decided to use him out of the bullpen last season. Despite a strong showing in Spring Training — 2.12 ERA with an 18/2 K/BB ratio in 17 IP — Chapman is once again headed back to the bullpen to start this season.

Read the rest of this entry »

Now that Joey Votto is signed with Cincinnati through his age 39 season, there’s a lot of talk about how long he can be expected to remain productive. The Reds are basically accepting that this deal will be an albatross at the end of the contract in order to secure premium years at reasonable prices in the first half of the deal. The discussion of the contract should not be whether Votto will be worth the money in 2021, 2022, or 2023 – he won’t be, in almost any scenario you can come up with – but by how much surplus value he’ll be able to create through 2020.

I have more thoughts on long term pricing valuations that I’ll share in the next day or two, but for now, I wanted to look at how productive other similar first baseman to Votto were in their age 28-39 seasons. To do this, I pulled every first baseman in history who had at least 2,000 plate appearances and a wRC+ between 142 to 161 from ages 24-27. Those are the ages that Votto has been a big leaguer for, and gives us a nice four year window leading up a player’s prime. Since Votto has a wRC+ of 152 and a WAR of 22.9 and all the players in the sample have a weighted average wRC+ of 150 and a WAR of 22.0, this group is almost identical in terms of recent performance to Votto at this point in his career.

Here’s the list of comparables, and their 24-27 performance:

Read the rest of this entry »

Well, I think we’ve just seen the first piece of fallout from the stunning $2.15 billion purchase of the Dodgers on Wednesday. With money flowing into MLB at a breakneck pace, the Cincinnati Reds decided to make star first baseman Joey Votto an offer he couldn’t refuse. Actually, they made him an offer that no player in baseball could refuse, signing him (per Bob Nightengale of USA Today) to the longest contract in the history of the game — a staggering 12-year, $251.5 million commitment (or, phrased differently, a 10-year extension on top of the 2/26 he had already agreed to) that will keep Votto in Cincinnati through the 2023 season.

For as much as the Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder contracts helped shape the off-season, this is the deal that could have long lasting effects going forward. First baseman have been getting monster contracts in free agency for years, and in both cases, there were some special circumstances that set their particular case apart; Pujols is one of the great players in the history of the game, while Fielder certainly benefited from Victor Martinez‘s torn ACL, which didn’t occur until after most other options were already off the table. Free agents trying to use these deals as yardsticks for future negotiations would not stack up to Pujols resume, nor would they likely reap the rewards of a high-payroll team suddenly needing their services just weeks before spring training begins.

This contract for Votto, though, doesn’t come with any of those caveats, and it didn’t come through an intense bidding war in free agency. This is the third-largest contract in baseball history being given to a player who was two years away from free agency. This deal just blows up the expected compensation level for premium players negotiating with only their own franchise.

Read the rest of this entry »

According to MLBTradeRumors, Joey Votto is nearing an agreement with the Reds on a long term contract. Votto is currently under team control through 2013, and he’s due $26 million over the next two years as part of the deal he signed last winter.

It will be interesting to see what kind of deal Votto ended up getting. Ryan Zimmerman, another quality player with the same level of service time, signed a six year, $100 million extension a little over a month ago, but Zimmerman is coming off a down year and has a lot of value tied up in his defense, which doesn’t generally pay as well as just hitting the ball really hard. Matt Kemp got $160 million over eight years, but he was also only under team control for one more season, so he had more leverage in negotiations than Votto did. Kemp is also coming off a monster season and plays an up-the-middle position, so you’d think his deal would be some kind of ceiling for Votto.

However, with the timing of the report coming so close to the massive sale price of the Dodgers, you have to wonder if the Reds got inspired to kick things into high gear after they saw what the new owners were willing to invest in Los Angeles. Votto almost certainly would have been a target acquisition for LA’s group, and Reds may have decided to get something done now before they have to deal with competition from rich new owners out west.

Read the methodology behind the ratings here. Remember that the grading scale is 20-80 (50 representing league average) with extra weight given to 2012 and Revenue rankings.

2012 Organizational Rankings

#30 – Baltimore
#29 – Houston
#28 – Oakland
#27 – Pittsburgh
#26 – San Diego
#25 – Minnesota
#24 – Chicago AL
#23 – Seattle
#22 – Kansas City
#21 – Cleveland
#20 – New York NL
#19 – Los Angeles
#18 – Colorado
#17 – Miami
#16 — Arizona

Cincinnati’s 2011 Ranking: #9

2012 Outlook: 57 (t-9th)

Coming off a disappointing 79-83 finish, Walt Jocketty decided to bring in some reinforcements in order to make sure his team could regain their status as legitimate contenders in the National League. It cost him a good chunk of his farm system, but he was able to bring in two dynamic arms in Mat Latos and Sean Marshall, both of whom will be critical to the Reds success this year. The team ended up skimping on upgrades for position players, though, and settled on an unorthodox right-right platoon of Ryan Ludwick and Chris Heisey in left field, and are vulnerable to injuries – they don’t have any real in-house alternatives if a guy like Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, or Jay Bruce get hurt. They exchanged depth for pitching improvements, which was a wise choice, but has also left them thin behind their core starters.

Read the rest of this entry »

The hits just keep on coming. Per Ken Rosenthal, Ryan Madson is the latest pitcher to need Tommy John surgery, and will be lost for the 2012 season. The falling dominos will push Sean Marshall into the closer’s role with the Reds, and Aroldis Chapman will move back to the bullpen to replace Marshall in the vacated lefty setup role.

Obviously, this is lousy news for both Madson and the Reds, and you can’t help but wonder how this might have changed the face of the National League race had things turned out differently this winter. Depending on who you believe, the Phillies were either considering or had already agreed to a four year, $44 million deal with Madson, but ended up going after Jonathan Papelbon instead. Had the Phillies finalized that deal with Madson instead of Papelbon, we might be talking about the Marlins or Braves as frontrunners for the NL East today.

Instead, this deals a significant blow to the Reds chances of taking the NL Central, and perhaps evens out yesterday’s news that the Cardinals have lost Chris Carpenter “indefinitely”. The Reds have enough talent to contend this year, but without Madson, their bullpen takes a significant hit. Cincinnati desperately needs Chapman to get back to his dominating 2010 form, rather than the inconsistent hurler he was last year.

I also wonder how this news will affect players willingness to bet on themselves by taking Scott Boras’ advice and going for a one year “pillow contract”. Madson took a one year deal to attempt to cash in big next winter, but this news is going to crush his potential for future earnings, and in reality, he may have missed his only chance to land a long term contract. It will be interesting to see whether players begin to decide that they’re better off taking the security of a multi-year deal when they have the chance, rather than deciding that they can do better in 12 months and betting on a one year deal.

With disabled list information available going back 10 years, I have decided to examine some league wide and team trends.

League Trends

To begin with, here are the league values for trips, days and average days lost to the DL over the past 10 years.

Read the rest of this entry »

Sean Marshall is not going to be a rental for the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds, who own Marshall’s last arbitration year at $3.1 million for 2012, pulled the trigger on a three-year extension that will pay the 29-year-old left-hander $16.5 million over the next three seasons.

As unpredictable as relievers can be, Sean Marshall has been one of baseball’s best bets over the last two seasons. Over the past two seasons with the Cubs, Marshall has thrown 150.2 innings with a 60 ERA- and 169 strikeouts to just 42 walks. He might be under the radar because he isn’t racking up the saves, but make no mistakes: Marshall has been in the elite as the Cubs setup man. Check out his ranks over the past two seasons among relievers with at least 100 IP:

2.45 ERA: 20th
60 ERA-: 15th
2.07 FIP: 1st
51 FIP-: 1st
4.02 K/BB: 15th
0.24 HR/9: 3rd
5.0 WAR: 1st

Marshall had success keeping runners off the bases and runs off the board despite the poor defenses routinely set behind him in Chicago. His fielding independent numbers speak for themselves, but the question remains, particularly with a move to Cincinnati: can he continue to keep the ball in the yard? Prior to 2010, Marshall had never posted a HR/9 below 1.0; since, he has allowed all of four home runs in 150 innings.

Not every pitcher is equally affected by the transition from starter to reliever (or vice-versa). In the case of Marshall, it may have saved his career. Marshall allowed 45 home runs in 311 innings as the Cubs first tried him as a starter. Even as Chicago continued to experiment with him in both roles, Marshall emerged as a far superior relief pitcher. Although he struggled in 2008, allowing four home runs in 26.2 innings, he would calm down in 2009, allowing just three in 39 frames (0.69 HR/9) before bursting onto the scene as a full-time reliever in 2010 and posting the 0.24 HR/9 over two seasons as noted above.

Particularly as a left-handed pitcher in front of Great American Ballpark’s incredibly short porch (having sat in the front row in left field, it’s even shorter than it appears on TV), it is likely too much to expect that he allows just one or two home runs per season as a Red. As such, he won’t be the single best relief pitcher in the league with Cincinnati, but that’s not what the Reds are paying for. He has the ability to be a very effective setup man who can move into the closing role should Ryan Madson depart after the season, and at a cost of just $5 million per season, the Reds are getting a fine deal on that skill set.

I was prepared to write all sorts of glowing comments about the state of Cincinnati’s minor league system… but then a funny thing happened. The organization acquired one of the top arms in the National League at the cost of three key young prospects. Even with the trade dust now settled, though, the farm system still boasts some high ceiling prospects, as well as a plethora of interesting sleeper prospects.

1. Devin Mesoraco, C
BORN: June 19, 1988
EXPERIENCE: 5 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2007 1st round, Pennsylvania HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 2nd

Mesoraco was a late-blooming prep star who stepped up his game at the right time and was selected in the first round of the 2007 draft. He had a slow start to his pro career, which began to extinguish his prospect flame but he threw some lighter fluid on the fire in ’10 and hasn’t stopped hitting since that time. The Pennsylvania native offers plus power and he may also hit for a decent batting average. Mesoraco isn’t just an offensive-minded catcher. He has a well-rounded game which includes solid throwing and excellent leadership. His receiving skills still need a little polishing. With his development the Reds’ front office was able to send fellow catching prospect Yasmani Grandal to the Padres in the Mat Latos deal, which nabbed the organization an outstanding young arm. Mesoraco should catch Latos in 2012 as he becomes the big league club’s starting catcher with Ryan Hanigan backing him up.

Read the rest of this entry »

It is a simple question.

What is sabermetrics?

Not the history of it, but what is it, right now? What is, in our nerdiest of lingoes, its derivative? Where is it pointing? What does it do?

Last Tuesday I created no little stir when I listed the 2012 saber teams, delineating them according to their perceived embrace of modern sabermetrics.

Today, I recognize I needed to take a step back and first define sabermetrics, because it became obvious quickly I did not have the same definition at heart as some of the readers and protesters who gathered outside my apartment.

I believe, and this is my belief — as researcher and a linguist — that sabermetrics is not statistics. The term itself has come to — or needs to — describe more than just on-base percentage, weighted runs created plus, fielding independent pitching, and wins above replacement.

Sabermetrics is the advanced study of baseball, not the burying of one’s head in numbers.
Read the rest of this entry »

Reds GM Walt Jocketty is sick and tired of your Roy Oswalt rumors:

“It’s all rumors,” he said. “I’m sick and tired of it. We’ve had no serious talks. We’ve had no contact with the player.” (via John Fay, Cincinnati Enquirer)

These rumors Jocketty refers to include this piece by Ken Rosenthal from Monday’s wee hours, which claims the Reds were still in on Oswalt despite the 34-year-old’s inclinations to sign in either St. Louis or Texas. However, there’s more than just Oswalt’s preferences in the way — the Reds would both need to clear a space in the starting rotation and salary from the books in order to make it work.

Read the rest of this entry »

Silly monkey, BRAINS ARE FOR ZOMBIES.

Casey Kotchman is in many ways a man without a home — a player equal parts under-appreciated and over-valued, who irks both old and new schools at the same time. Old school analysts say his defense is amazing, but they cannot quantify it, and in 2011, they claimed his cleared vision meant he finally learned how to aim the ball “where they ain’t,” but he’s still a .268 hitter with little power. The new school says he’s worth about 7.6 runs per season defensively, but worth ~1.1 WAR per 600 PAs — not good — and his BABIP was high 2011, so he should not be able to repeat his success.

Despite his inability to build a consistent following of fans in the baseball outsiders communities, Kotchman seems to have some insider communities very much interested in him, as Tom Tango points out:

Kotchman’s last four teams: Redsox, Mariners, Rays, Indians. Can we say that a team that signs Kotchman is saber-leaning?

Indeed, after spending five and a half seasons on the Angels’ and Braves’ rosters, Kotchman has begun to shuffle around with the Nerdz, most recently signing with the Cleveland Indians. It makes sense too — Kotchman’s lack of power keeps him cheap, and his strong defense keeps him amorphous for the old school teams, while the new schools might have different valuations on Kotchman, they can at least quantify his contributions and better know how he fits.

Then, on Monday, the Houston Astros signed Justin Ruggiano, long-time Tampa Bay Rays outfielder who was never good enough to stick on the Rays’ roster, but who possesses strong defensive chops and above average patience. His lack of power and ~.290 batting average, however, must make him a mystery — or at least an undesirable asset — to the old school teams.

Upon Ruggiano signing with the Astros, a once highly old school team, my reaction was all: “Welp, that’s one more team to compete with” — and then it occurred to me! No only have the Astros entered the realm of, so to speak, saber-minded organizations, but so have the long-backward Chicago Cubs.

Suddenly the league looks very different.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Reds have made it very clear that they’re going all-in this offseason, presumably in an effort to maximize their chances of winning a title before Joey Votto qualifies for free agency after the 2013 season. GM Walt Jocketty opened up the prospect vault to acquire Mat Latos and Sean Marshall, then landed what could potentially be the bargain of the offseason by signing Ryan Madson to a sweetheart one-year contract. Those moves all improve the team, but at the same time the club sacrificed outfield depth.

Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce are locked into the center and right field jobs, and Chris Heisey made a pretty good case for the left field gig by slugging 18 homers with a .233 ISO in 308 plate appearances last year. In 534 plate appearances over the last two seasons, he’s hit 26 balls out of the park. Beyond those three, the only other outfielder on the team’s 40-man roster is Denis Phipps, a 25-year-old that posted a .346/.397/.527 batting line between Double and Triple-A in 2011 after hitting just .250/.307/.377 in his previous 2,319 minor league plate appearances. The trades of Dave Sappelt (for Marshall) and nominal outfielder Yonder Alonso (for Latos) along with the free agent departure of Fred Lewis have left the club thin at the position(s).

Read the rest of this entry »

The Reds entered the off-season with two possible paths forward:

1. Trade Joey Votto for a bushel of young players and accept a consolidation while breaking in the foundation of their next core group of everyday players.

2. Trade some of those young players for roster upgrades in an effort to win while they have Votto under contract.

They choose the second path, shipping Yonder Alonso and friends to San Diego for Mat Latos, sending Travis Wood to Chicago for Sean Marshall, and then using most of their remaining budget allowance to sign Ryan Madson to a one-year deal to take over as the team’s closer. While Latos offers both present and future value, the other moves only upgrade Cincinnati’s roster for 2012, and next winter, they’ll have a tough time retaining Madson, Marshall, and Brandon Phillips while also paying Votto the significant raise that his contract calls for.

So, the Reds are something close to being all-in on this season. If they win, they might create enough extra revenue to give Votto a long-term mega-contract and keep their franchise player. If they don’t win, however, then they’re going to have a hard time selling Votto on re-signing, and they’ll have to explore moving him before he can leave via free agency. That’s not a good scenario, and so the Reds should be highly motivated to maximize their positive outcomes in 2012.

Read the rest of this entry »

This off-season, Major League teams forced a quality group of proven closers into a game of musical chairs. There were too many guys with ninth inning experience on the market and not enough jobs to go around, which directly led to Ryan Madson‘s decision to take the last available closer’s job by signing a one year deal with Cincinnati. Madson’s move to the Reds likely closed the door on Francisco Cordero‘s ability to return to his prior team, and now that the music has stopped, he finds himself as the guy without a home.

It’s no coincidence that Cordero is the odd man out, however – his current employment status is simply a reflection of the fact that his performance last year threw up a ton of red flags about how much longer he’ll be an effective high leverage reliever.

Read the rest of this entry »

Walt Jocketty and his Cincinnati Reds have signaled to the baseball community that they believe the NL Central to be ripe for the taking in 2012.

The organization has been extremely bold this offseason. They opted to leverage several of their young, valuable assets — namely Yonder Alonso, Travis Wood, and Yasmani Grandal — to acquire Mat Latos and Sean Marshall, in hopes of complementing a potent offense that posted the fourth-best team wOBA in the league last season and catapulting the team into the postseason.

Cincinnati ratcheted up that aggressiveness even further on Tuesday evening by inking closer Ryan Madson to a one-year, $8.5M contract.

Read the rest of this entry »

Barry Larkin is largely expected to answer a phone call Monday afternoon and hear from Jack O’Connell, Secretary of the Baseball Writers Association of America, that he has been elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. The BBWAA has voted at least one player into Cooperstown in every season since 1996, and Larkin has the best chance of anyone on the ballot this year.

However, that congratulatory phone call is not guaranteed. The long-time Cincinnati Reds shortstop must accumulate another 12.9% of the votes to jump from the 62.1% he garnered last year to the necessary 75% for induction, and the average percentage gained by the last twelve players inducted into the Hall of Fame (not in their first year of eligibility) once reaching the 60% threshold was only 10.8 — which would leave Larkin on the outside looking in for yet another season.

Even if Larkin does follow that trend, though, and only receives 72.9 percent of the vote this year, it seems inevitable that we will eventually be talking about Barry Larkin the Hall of Fame shortstop. And we should be.

Read the rest of this entry »

According to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FOX Sports, the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds are conferring about a possible deal that would send left-hander Sean Marshall to Cincy in return for fellow-southpaw Travis Wood. It is not immediately clear if other players are being discussed as a part of the deal.

Though no trade has been agreed upon as of yet, the move would significantly help both teams within the context of each organization’s blueprint for future success.

Read the rest of this entry »