This morning, our topic of discussion involved the bottom half of the top ten pitching performances of 2008, as determined by single-game WPA. As mentioned then, no pitcher accrued an individual game WPA above +1.0 this season, but there were still some absolutely fantastic outings. For posterity’s sake, numbers ten through six were:

10) Bronson Arroyo, 8/26 @ Hou:   0.660 WPA, 9 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
9)  Roy Oswalt,     9/6 @ Col:    0.676 WPA, 9 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
8)  James Shields,  5/9 vs. LAA:  0.685 WPA, 9 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K
7)  Jeff Karstens,  8/6 @ Ari:    0.695 WPA, 9 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
6)  Matt Cain,      7/24 vs. Was: 0.707 WPA, 9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

And here are the top five:

#5: Cliff Lee, 5/12 vs. Toronto
Cliff Lee had a remarkable season. After having to fight for his job in Spring Training, Lee went onto win the 2008 AL Cy Young Award. Without attempting to stir any discussions about Lee/Halladay, his top performance of the year, via WPA, occurred on May 12, against Doc’s team. Lee pitched a complete game shutout, scattering seven hits and two walks over nine innings, striking out five in the process. At the end of the day, Lee was putting the finishing touches on an incredible streak to start the season, earning a 0.715 WPA.

#4: Josh Banks, 5/25 vs. Cincinnati
Jeff Karstens seemed a tad out of place on this list, but at least there are plenty of people who have heard of him. Banks, however, is not well-known, and did not have a very solid 2008 season, yet he somehow managed to harness everything he has into the fourth best performance of the season. For those that do not remember, this 5/25 Padres/Reds game was the one that went 18 innings. Banks pitched six fantastic relief innings, surrendering five hits and no runs to go with two walks and four strikeouts. His work earned him a 0.718 WPA.

#3: Jesse Carlson, 4/16 vs. Texas
Keeping with the theme of relievers earning high WPA marks, Jesse Carlson of the Blue Jays found himself in quite the predicament against the Rangers early in the season. BJ Ryan had blown the save in the ninth inning, and the Rangers were again threatening in the tenth. Brian Wolfe allowed the first three batters to reach base safely, and was lifted in favor of Carlson. Jesse entered into a bases loaded, no outs, situation, and managed to get out of it, recording a “Houdini” in the process. He would pitch two more scoreless innings, limiting the baserunners to one hit and two walks, while striking out four. The Rangers would win the game, but Carlson recorded a 0.721 WPA for his stellar work.

#2: Ben Sheets, 9/6 vs. San Diego
Ben Sheets has always been the guy with the ridiculous “stuff” and potential to be fantastic if he could stay healthy. We got to see a lot of him this year, and he didn’t disappoint, but none of his games were better than the one on September 6. Against the Padres, home at Miller Park, Sheets tossed a five-hit, complete game shutout, walking one and fanning seven. His 0.729 WPA for the day placed him second on our list, though quite the distant second behind the best performance of the season.

#1: CC Sabathia, 6/10 vs. Minnesota
How could a list like this not have Sabathia? An eventual teammate of second-place Sheets, Sabathia’s game on June 10 actually occurred before he was sent to Milwaukee. Back when he was a member of the Indians, CC tossed a five-hit, complete game shutout, with no walks and five strikeouts. His single-game WPA, the best of any game for a pitcher this year, was 0.775, significantly better than everyone else on this list.

Nobody may have produced single-game WPAs above +1.0, but it is tough to imagine, after seeing these games, what someone would have to do to accomplish such a feat.

Last night, we took a look at the four games from 2000 or later in which a pitcher accrued a WPA of -1.0 or worse, thereby costing his team one or more wins in a single game. Prior to that, our discussion centered around the brilliant games of Cody Ross and Kurt Suzuki, who, in the span of three weeks managed to become the only two offensive players to post a WPA equal to, or greater than, +1.0 in a single game. Unfortunately, no pitcher in 2008 had a performance good enough to be worth one or more wins, but there were still some fantastic outings. Today, we will examine the ten best pitching performances of 2008, sorted by the WPA earned.

#10: Bronson Arroyo, 8/26 @ Houston
Arroyo might not be an all star but, over the last four years, has been average at worst (-0.12 WPA this year), while logging 200+ innings each season. His BABIP, LOB, BB/9, and WHIP have trended in the downward direction, but even pitchers in the decline phase can toss out a gem here and there. On August 26, in Houston’s bandbox stadium, Arroyo went the distance, earning a complete game, surrendering just five hits and one run, walking two and striking out three. While it may not seem all that amazing, he earned a WPA of 0.660 for his efforts, the tenth most individual game WPA for pitchers this season.

#9: Roy Oswalt, 9/6 @ Colorado
If you thought Arroyo may have had a tough time pitching a gem in Houston, how could Oswalt pull off an even better game in Coors Field? Roy had an interesting season, getting off to an extremely un-Oswalt-like start, before finishing extremely strong, racking up some pretty impressive numbers. His ERA and FIP may have been higher in years past, but his xFIP, which normalizes the home run rate, is actually right in line with these seasons. On September 6, Roy was in the midst of a brilliant streak of games; none, however, were as brilliant as his performance against the Rockies. On the day, he pitched a 9-inning complete game shutout, giving up just one hit, walking two, and striking out six. All told, his individual game WPA of 0.676 takes the ninth spot on our list.

#8: James Shields, 5/9 vs. Los Angeles Anaheim Angels of California
In 2008, James Shields continued to stake claim as the Rays #1 starter with a season very similar to his breakout 2007 campaign. He pitched 215 innings in both years, posted FIP marks between 3.82 and 3.86, ranged from 1.51-1.67 in BB/9, and produced identical .292 BABIPs. On May 9th, home against the Angels—ironically, this is the first home game on our list so far—Shields was so dominant that dominant doesn’t even describe his performance. He tossed a complete game shutout, allowing just one hit. Excellent with control, Shields walked nobody and struck out eight Halos hitters. His WPA? 0.685, good enough for the eighth best pitched game of the season. How could it get better than that you might be thinking, but hold on, we’re moving on up.

#7: Jeff Karstens, 8/6 @ Arizona
I remember a few years back, while working minor league baseball telecasts for CN8, getting to see Jeff Karstens pitch on a regular basis. He always seemed to have the poise and “stuff” that should translate into major league success. Suffice it to say, things have not panned out the way that I, or other Yankees fans, imagined, and Jeff found himself a member of the Pirates in 2008. He did post a 4.03 ERA in his nine starts, but he K/9 was ridiculously low and his 4.77 FIP does a better job of explaining his performance level. Still, in his first two starts, he looked fantastic. On August 1st, he held the Cubs scoreless over six innings, surrendering only five hits. In his next start, against the Diamondbacks, he pitched a two-hit, complete game shutout, with two walks and four strikeouts. Though this game does not feel better than Oswalt’s or Shields’, Karstens earned a WPA of 0.695. Couple that with his 0.360 in the Cubs game, and Jeff was worth over one whole win after his first two starts of the season. A shame it all went downhill from there…

#6: Matt Cain, 7/24 vs. Washington
For those who have followed my writings over the last year and a half or so, you will know that I have some crazy manlove for Matt Cain. I don’t know if it’s due to the criminally low run support he receives, or how dominant he looks most of the time, but I tend to watch all of his starts, which is something I only did (watch starts for non-Phillies players) for Greg Maddux, and Sabathia’s crazy stretch this season. Overall, Cain once more logged 200+ innings of performance under 4.00 in the ERA and FIP department, with a K/BB above 2.0. Unfortunately, he rarely is credited with a win because his team refuses to support him. On July 24, he actually did record a win, pitching a complete game shutout against the Nationals. Cain surrendered just four hits, walked nary a hitter, and fanned four, earning a 0.707 WPA.

Tonight we will continue by examining the five best pitching performances of 2008.

Over the last two weeks, I have used WPA, win probability added, to discuss the top ten offensive plays of the 2008 baseball season. The merits of this list could be debated to death, I am sure, but what cannot be denied is that these ten plays brought with them the biggest shifts in win expectancy. Hitting a three-run home run in the sixth inning, when down by a run may seem like a monumental play while watching the game in question, but a two-run walkoff home run with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning is likely going to vault a team from a 9-11% win expectancy to the 100% victory.

With that in mind, here is the top ten in its entirety:

10) Jason Michaels hit a two-run home run in the bottom of the tenth inning against the Cardinals on July 12. The Pirates trailed 10-6 entering the bottom of the ninth inning, and won 12-11 in ten innings. His play was worth a shift of 78.6%.

9) Nick Swisher, who didn’t make his first plate appearance until the 11th inning, hit a walkoff two-run homer in the bottom of the fourteenth against the Tigers on August 5. The home run was worth a 78.8% shift in expectancy.

8) Nate McLouth delivered a three-run home run in the top of the ninth, on April 14, off of Takashi Saito and the Dodgers. Unlike the other plays on this list, McLouth’s 79.6% shift in win expectancy was not a walk-off hit.

7) Nicknamed “the first half highlight” by, well, me, Josh Hamilton hit a walk-off dinger off of Francisco Rodriguez prior to the all star break. The home run, which occurred on July 9, saw a shift of 82.9% in win expectancy.

6) This was probably the oddest finish to any game this season. The Giants led the DBacks on September 10, 3-2, as the top of the ninth began. Chris Young hit a two-run triple to give the Snakes the 4-3 lead, before Eugenio Velez hit a two-run triple of his own to win the game for the Giants in the bottom half. Velez’s triple brought with it an expectancy shift of 83%.

5) On June 5, Jason Giambi and his moustache provided an 89.6% shift in win expectancy when he blasted a two-run walkoff home run off of BJ Ryan and the Blue Jays.

4) Two days later, on June 7, Cody Ross of the Marlins provided the fourth biggest play of the season, worth 89.8%, when he lined a two-run homer with a 1-1 count off of Francisco Cordero.

3) On May 2, Pat Burrell hit a two-run walkoff home run off of Giants closer Brian Wilson, an expectancy shift of 89.95%.

2) June 29, Ronnie Belliard delivered a two-run walkoff home run off of George Sherrill in an interleague battle for Maryland supremacy. The dinger brought with it an expectancy shift of 90.05%.

1) Finally, on July 12, David DeJesus hit, you guessed it, a walkoff two-run homer, off of Brandon Morrow. His home run, 90.36% worth of WPA, was the biggest play of the 2008 season.

And there you have it, the top ten offensive plays of the season. Brian Wilson appeared twice on this list: he gave up Young’s two-run triple in the top of the ninth in #6, before being bailed out by Velez, and gave up the walkoff to Burrell in #3. #1 and #10 both occurred on the same day, July 12. Three days prior, Hamilton hit his much shown home run off of K-Rod, meaning three of the top plays of the entire season occurred within four days of each other.

Well, what do you know? We have finally made it to the top offensive play of this entire 2008 baseball season, and it happens to belong to a member of the Kansas City Royals. David DeJesus, to be exact. Somehow, the Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, and Seattle Mariners—four of the worst teams in baseball this past season—managed to find themselves involved in the top two offensive plays of the year. Ain’t baseball great? DeJesus’s big play, which will be prefaced and summarized below, provided a win expectancy swing of 90.36%, about one-third to one-half of a percentage point ahead of Ronnie Belliard’s second-best play, and Pat Burrell’s third-place home run.

The game took place on July 12, in a matchup between Gil Meche and Jarrod Washburn. It also saw Horacio Ramirez, then a member of the Royals, take on his former teammates in Seattle. Would Horacio seek revenge? Oh, that’s right, he isn’t good enough to merit a storyline. Moving on. Take a look at the big spike at the end, as it is the biggest such spike this past season:

DeJesus has had an interesting career to date. His numbers in 2005, 2006, and 2008, are eerily similar, not just in raw totals but rates as well. 2007 appears to be an outlier, as his .291 BABIP was much lower than the .330+ marks he showed himself capable of in 2005, 2006, and 2008. Not many fans know about his production and potential, but he managed to put the Kansas City Royals in first place in at least one category this year: the top offensive plays.

After giving up a leadoff single to Ichiro Suzuki, Meche retired the next three hitters in the top of the first. His counterpart Washburn did not fare as well, as the Royals tacked on two quick runs on the heels of singles by Mark Grudzielanek and Alex Gordon. After one inning, the Royals led by a score of 2-0, that would last for no more than an inning. In the bottom of the second, Mark Teahen hit into a fielder’s choice, scoring Esteban German, and extending the lead to three runs.

After five innings, Meche was absolutely cruising, having walked nobody, allowed no runs to score, and given up just four hits, two of which belonged to Tug Hulett. In the sixth, however, he fell apart. Ichiro once again led off with a single, and two batters later, scored on a home run by Raul Ibanez. Jose Vidro then followed with a single. Adrian Beltre added a single of his own. With two on, and one out, Jeremy Reed hit a double, scoring both Vidro and Beltre, and giving the Mariners the 4-3 lead. The Royals’ win expectancy began the inning at 86.9%, and by the time it ended, had plummeted to 38.9%, a dropoff of 48 percentage points.

When the bottom of the seventh came to its close, their win expectancy had further been reduced to 24.9%. A 1-2-3 inning later from Horacio Ramirez, it had been nominally increased to 30%, but their offense appeared stagnant, and it was only a matter of time before the hard-throwing Brandon Morrow would enter the game. Sean Green and Arthur Rhodes kept the Royals off the scoreboards in the eighth, meaning the ninth inning would begin with the Royals having just a 16% probability of winning the game.

Horacio added another 1-2-3 inning, giving the Royals a 19.7% probability of winning as Morrow entered. John Buck struck out looking, and Ross Gload grounded out to second. Their win expectancy was now a measly 4.6%. Billy Butler then walked, to give the Royals a glimmer of hope. He was lifted in favor of speedster Joey Gathright, who would look to get himself into scoring position for a potential tie game. He didn’t even need to, as only a few pitches later, with just a 9.6% probability of winning, David DeJesus launched a two-run homer into orbit, blowing the save for Morrow, and winning the game for the Royals. His home run, worth a swing in expectancy of 90.36%, was the top offensive play of the 2008 baseball season.

Well, here we are, my top highlight of the 2008 season. In third place was Chipper Jones and his quest for a .400 batting average that kept us all entertained well into June, and second place involved everyone, including the notoriously tough Phillies fans really pulling for Junior Griffey to hit that 600th home run. First place, however, is a no-brainer for me, and goes to CC Sabathia’s absolutely incredible performance this season. And I’m not just talking about his statistics in a Brewers uniform, but while with the Indians as well.

CC started the season rather poorly, as after four games, his numbers were: 18 IP, 32 H, 27 ER, 14 BB, 14 K, an OPS of 1.170, and a 13.50 ERA. Over his next 14 starts, all with the Indians, Sabathia allowed just 25 earned runs, two less than his total in the initial four. He walked just 20 while striking out 109 and allowing only 85 hits in 104.1 innings. This resulted in a .591 OPS against and a 2.16 ERA. It is irresponsible and incorrect to ignore his atrocious first four starts, but he managed to put together a tremendous 14-start stretch before even landing a plane ticket to Milwaukee.

Following the trade with the Brewers, Sabathia had a somewhat wild first start in the senior circuit but followed it up with three straight complete games, one of which was a shutout. In these three starts, he amassed 27 innings, allowed just 15 hits and three earned runs, walked just three hitters and struck out 26 of them. All told, in 17 starts with the Brewers, he threw seven complete games, produced a K/BB ratio above 5.0 (128/25), and a 1.65 ERA.

Put together, he made 35 starts, threw 253 innings, walked 59, fanned 251, and surrendered 2.70 earned runs per nine innings. In case you are curious just how good he was following those four atrocious starts to begin the year–or just how bad those four starts were–here are his stats from starts #5-35: 235 IP, 191 H, 45 BB, 237 K, .570 OPS, 1.88 ERA, 5.27 K/BB, 2.45 FIP. Again, it is incorrect to ignore those starts, but this what Sabathia did from the end of April until the end of the season. He virtually willed the Brewers into the playoffs, and made four straight starts to close out the season on three days rest. His numbers in that span? 28.2 IP, 24 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 26 K, 1.88 ERA.

With the Brewers, he surrendered 4 ER just once, never venturing higher than that number. Three earned runs were allowed twice; Two earned runs on four occasions; 1 earned run six times; and no earned runs in four different starts. That is domination. His lowest game score was 43 and he produced a game score of 70+ in seven of 17 starts for the Brewers. I have never followed a pitcher, or watched each of his starts, for a team other than my own, except for Greg Maddux prior to this season. From the time Sabathia joined the Brewers, though, I found myself tuning into each and every one of his starts, growing more and more impressed with each passing pitch. His tremendous season, especially with Milwaukee, is my top highlight of the 2008 season.