The Houston Astros’ 2011 season figures to go about as well as NASA’s recent Glory satellite launch — it’s going to end with disappointment and a thud. CAIRO, Oliver and PECOTA all project the ‘Stros for fewer than 70 wins, and considering that Marc Hulet dubbed Houston’s farm system second-worst in the game, it could be years before Houston has the talent to compete once again. The Astros’ plight got even bleaker today, as it was announced that one of the club’s precious few long-term talents, Jason Castro, will likely miss the entire year with a torn right ACL.

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In naming Lastings Milledge the ninth-best prospect in the game prior the 2006 season, Baseball America said that the precocious outfielder figured to be part of a Queens offensive core including Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and David Wright. BA also threw out this quirky nugget of information about the would-be stud: Milledge’s family “has followed [his] career throughout the minors in a recreational vehicle affectionately dubbed ‘Milledgeville.’ ”

That rec vehicle was supposed to roll into Queens for good. But half a decade and three teams later, Milledgeville has bald tires, scratched paint and the horse power of a single burro. Rather than becoming a star in baseball’s biggest media market, Milledge is just hoping to avoid a summer spent taking the International League tour through places like Toledo, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and Durham. Having washed out of New York, Washington and Pittsburgh, Milledge will try to carve out a bench role with the White Sox after agreeing to a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite. Can Milledgeville get back on track, or is it destined for the scrap yard?

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The Angels entered the offseason with money to spend and designs on nabbing a primo free agent position player, like Carl Crawford or Adrian Beltre, to invigorate a team that ranked 13th in the American League in wOBA and toward the middle of the pack in UZR. After Crawford inked with the Red Sox and Beltre joined the division rival Rangers, it looked as though L.A.’s most prominent winter move would be adding lefty relief pitching.

That changed Friday, as the Angels acquired Vernon Wells from the Toronto Blue Jays for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera. In picking up Wells, the Angels added name value and spent the cash that was sitting in the club’s coffers. Unfortunately, they didn’t get any better in the process. The team is now saddled with a cumbersome contract for a player who is almost assuredly going to regress next season, and who is entering the typical decline phase of a player’s career. The Jays, meanwhile, get out from under the baseball equivalent of a subprime mortgage and pick up the trade’s best player to boot.

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The first memory most fans have of Andruw Jones is witnessing the then-teenager terrorize the New York Yankees in Game One of the 1996 World Series. While Jones’ Braves ultimately came up short in that Fall Classic, the Curacao native announced his presence as a future star by belting two home runs (replacing Mickey Mantle as the youngest ever to go deep in the World Series) and striding swiftly to fly balls that mere mortals would have to dive for, or miss altogether.

Now, Jones’ career has come full circle. He has reportedly signed a one-year, $2 million deal to serve as the Yankees’ fourth outfielder, with an additional $1.2 million in performance incentives possible. Thirty-four in April, Jones has the secondary skills to start for some teams, and he may now be the best reserve fly catcher in the game.
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The Baltimore Orioles have continued their Extreme Makeover: Infield Edition by agreeing to terms on a one-year contract with free agent first baseman Derrek Lee. The exact terms of the deal aren’t yet known. But Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman suggests that Lee’s base salary figures to be in the $7-8 million range, and Yahoo’s Tim Brown adds that the deal includes a couple million bucks in possible incentives.

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The Toronto Blue Jays entered the offseason knowing that the team’s bullpen would look drastically different on Opening Day 2011 than it did last October. While Jason Frasor decided to accept Toronto’s arbitration offer rather than testing the market as a Type A free agent, fellow Type A Scott Downs signed a three-year deal with the Angels, and Type B free agent Kevin Gregg is expected to pitch out of someone else’s ‘pen next year. Attempting to compensate for those relief losses, the Jays have reportedly signed Octavio Dotel to a one-year, $3.5 million deal. Dotel’s pact pays him $2.75 million in 2011, with a $3.75 million club option for 2012 that includes a $750K buyout.

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The Colorado Rockies have acquired right-handed reliever Matt Lindstrom from the Houston Astros for a pair of minor league pitchers, Wes Musick and Jonnathan Aristil. Lindstrom, swapped from the Florida Marlins to Houston last December, will join Huston Street, Rafael Betancourt, Matt Belisle, Franklin Morales and others in a Colorado bullpen that placed third in the National League in reliever xFIP in 2010.

Turning 31 next month, Lindstrom’s ERA has jumped significantly since he made his debut with the Fish in 2007. He had a 3.09 ERA in ’07 and a 3.14 mark in 2008, but that figure rose to 5.89 in 2009 and 4.39 this past season. However, his underlying performance hasn’t degraded that much — he’s not as bad as those past two totals suggest, but he was never really a relief ace in the first place.

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The Kansas City Royals possess one of the most fertile farm systems in recent memory. In addition to top position prospects Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and Will Myers, K.C. has unparalleled pitching talent — Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, Danny Duffy and Christopher Dwyer are potential top-of-the-rotation lefties. From the right, there’s Aaron Crow and two of the four youngsters acquired in the Zack Greinke deal, Jeremy Jeffress (likely headed to the ‘pen) and Jacob Odorizzi. Pitching prospects are more volatile than their position player counterparts, so some of the arms listed above will almost assuredly flame out due to injury or attrition. But by sheer volume, Dayton Moore should soon be able to fill out the front of the Royals’ rotation with talented, cost-controlled pitchers.

Before the prospect cavalry arrives, though, things could get ugly. Post-Greinke, Kansas City’s Opening Day rotation figures to include Luke Hochevar, Kyle Davies, Vin Mazzaro and Sean O’Sullivan, with Gil Meche a long shot to log significant innings due to a damaged shoulder (he may just stay in the bullpen). Chances are, the team adds a low-level free agent starter or two to compete for the fifth spot.

Dan Szymborski has released 2011 ZiPS projections for K.C. Here are the forecasts for the four guys currently penciled into the rotation, as well as Meche. I’d recommend that fans keep their noses buried in Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook this season, because Royals games might look like Charlie Brown‘s All-Stars running on a loop until those celebrated arms arrive:

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Yesterday, Dave Cameron examined the grim history of 3+ year contracts dished out to free agent relievers over the past four off-seasons. The Cliff Notes version? Those ‘pen arms, save for the anomaly that is Mariano Rivera, have provided a paltry return on investment for their respective teams. After a few years of fiscal restraint, four relievers have received ample job security from clubs this winter: Joaquin Benoit (Tigers), Scott Downs (Angels), Matt Guerrier (Dodgers), and Jesse Crain (White Sox) all signed three-year contracts. If recent history is any indication, a few of these deals might elicit more forehead slaps than high-fives in front offices over the next three seasons.

In contrast to the long-term commitments given by the Tigers, Angels, Dodgers and White Sox, the Cubs and Rays each added a talented reliever for peanuts on Thursday. Kerry Wood will reportedly return to Wrigley Field on a one-year, $1.5 million deal. Joel Peralta, curiously non-tendered by the Nationals after a season in which he posted a 3.02 FIP and a 3.64 xFIP, is on the verge of signing a one-year contract with Tampa Bay for $900,000. Take a look at the 2011 Bill James projections for Wood and Peralta, compared to their much pricier free agent peers:

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A few days after signing Hideki Matsui to DH, the Oakland Athletics have taken another step to invigorate an offense that ranked 10th in the American League in wOBA last season. The A’s have acquired outfielder Josh Willingham from the Washington Nationals for a pair of prospects: outfielder Corey Brown and right-handed reliever Henry Rodriguez.

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Earlier this week, the Pittsburgh Pirates signed free agent first baseman Lyle Overbay to a one-year, $5 million contract. Overbay’s addition moves Garrett Jones to right field to platoon with Matt Diaz, another free agent pick-up. And, with Chris Snyder set to start behind the plate, the Overbay signing further diminishes Ryan Doumit‘s role with the Pirates.

Considering that Doumit’s $5.1 million salary makes him the second-highest paid player on the team (Snyder technically makes more at $5.75 million, but the Bucs got $3 million from Arizona last July to cover a portion of his contract), it’s highly unlikely that he opens the 2011 season in Pittsburgh. But, if and when the Pirates do find a trade partner, they won’t obtain much more than salary relief.

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After breaking it off with Jack Cust, being spurned by Lance Berkman and getting the feeling that Adrian Beltre‘s just not that into them, the Oakland A’s are expected later today to announce the signing of Hideki Matsui. Assuming the 36-year-old’s achy knees check out during his physical, Matsui will take over as Oakland’s designated hitter.

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While it’s certainly not the biggest news coming out of San Diego this weekend, the Padres are close to signing free agent right-hander Aaron Harang to a one-year deal. The San Diego native and San Diego State University alumnus is expected to earn about $3 million in 2011.

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For the second straight offseason, the Oakland Athletics non-tendered Designated Hitter/ “Outfielder” Jack Cust. Arizona’s first-round pick in the 1997 draft drifted through Colorado, Baltimore, Oakland and San Diego before the A’s re-acquired him in May of 2007, and the uber-patient lefty batter has since hit a collective .247/.381/.457 in the Green and Gold. During his time in Oakland, Cust’s park and league-adjusted Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) has been 30 percent better than the average batter (130 wRC+). Despite his utter lack of positional value, that bat has allowed Cust to post win values of +3.0 in 2007, +2.1 in 2008, +1 in 2009 and +2.4 this past year. According to our dollar values, Cust’s performance with the A’s has been worth about $36 million, while he has earned around $6 million over that time frame.

Cust is entering his last year of arbitration eligibility, and he made $2.65 million in 2010. Given that his salary will remain modest in 2011, he might seem like a nice acquisition for a team in search of patience and pop at a bargain price. Look closer, though, and you’ll see some reasons to doubt that Cust can keep it up at the plate.

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With the Tampa Bay Rays facing a budget crunch and possessing a home-grown prospect (Reid Brignac) capable of similar production at a fraction of the cost, shortstop Jason Bartlett figures to open the 2011 season in a new city. It’s possible that the Rays non-tender the 31-year-old, but it’s more likely that Tampa finds a trade partner. Bartlett’s name has been tied at various times to the Orioles, Nationals, Giants, Cardinals and Padres. What sort of trade value does Bartlett have?

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When the Pirates shipped Jason Bay to the Boston Red Sox on July 31, 2008 as part of a three-team deal that also put Manny Ramirez in Dodger blue, Andy LaRoche was the centerpiece from Pittsburgh’s perspective. GM Neal Huntington also acquired reliever Craig Hansen, starter Bryan Morris and outfielder Brandon Moss, but the big get was the third baseman who ranked as Baseball America’s number 31 prospect prior to the ’08 season. Huntington, at a press conference to announce the Bay deal, lauded LaRoche’s “tremendous command of the strike zone for a young hitter” and his “quality power.” A career .295/.382/.517 minor league batter, LaRoche looked like he’d be an above-average regular at the very least, and perhaps even a franchise cornerstone.

This past Friday, Huntington booted LaRoche off the 40-man roster (along with Zach Duke and Delwyn Young) by designating him for assignment. Buried on the bench in the second half of 2010 by Pittsburgh’s new hot-shot third baseman, Pedro Alvarez, LaRoche was deemed not worth keeping around as a bench player in 2011 for the high six-figure salary he’d draw as a first-time arbitration-eligible player. What happened here?

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Earlier this month, new Arizona Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers declined first baseman Adam LaRoche‘s $7.5 million option for the 2011 season, preferring instead to pay a $1.5 million buyout. Yesterday, Towers sent a teenage arm to the New York Yankees to pick up a long-time minor leaguer with a LaRoche-like skill set.

Arizona acquired first baseman Juan Miranda from the Yankees in exchange for right-handed prospect Scott Allen. Miranda, 27 or 29 depending upon which bio you believe, has scarce big league experience, putting up a 112 wRC+ in 94 plate appearances with New York over the past three seasons. He defected from Cuba in 2004, but wasn’t granted citizenship in the Dominican Republic until 2006. The Yankees inked the lefty batter to a $2 million deal in ’06. In more than 1,200 Triple-A PA since, Miranda has a .287/.374/.481 triple-slash, an 11.4 percent walk rate and a .194 Isolated Power.

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Now a full fifty games under .500, the Pittsburgh Pirates hold, by far, the worst record in the majors. The Bucs have “earned” that sordid status, and then some. The club has been outscored by 287 runs this season, giving them a Pythagorean record of 42-104 instead of their actual 48-98 mark. There are signs of progress — Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Neil Walker form a quartet of talented position players, and the organization’s pitching depth has increased. But Jameson Taillon, Stetson Allie and Luis Heredia aren’t walking into the PNC Park clubhouse any time soon, and while prospects like Bryan Morris, Brad Lincoln, Rudy Owens and Jeff Locke offer promise, none are considered top-tier talents. There’s help on the way, but there are no guarantees. And James McDonald aside, the current rotation is getting trounced.

Zach Duke has become the poster boy for Pittsburgh’s pitching struggles. The lefty has been a fixture in the team’s rotation since 2005, but a disastrous stretch since the beginning of August (44.1 innings pitched, 38 runs allowed) had the Pirates considering banishing him from the starting five. In 141.2 IP this season, Duke has a 5.78 ERA. That’s the highest figure among starters who have tossed 140+ innings — most guys who get crushed like that get hooked off the stage. Some Pirates fans are ready to make Duke walk the plank, advocating that the team get rid of him instead of tendering him a contract for his last season of arbitration eligibility in 2011. But I’m left wondering, is he really pitching that much differently than in years past?

Duke has both struck out and walked more batters per nine frames in 2010, but we’re speaking in relative terms. Pittsburgh’s 20th-round selection in the ’01 draft has 5.65 K/9 (4.73 K/9 career) and 2.92 BB/9 (2.45 BB/9 career). His 47.8% ground ball rate is close to his career 48.9 GB%. Duke’s expected fielding independent ERA (xFIP), based on his K’s, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, is 4.41. His career xFIP? 4.38.

Like his rotation mates, Duke is a pitcher who often puts the ball in play. Unfortunately, the guys behind him have done a terrible job of converting those balls put in play into outs. The Pirates’ lineup has transformed drastically over the course of the season, but on the whole, the team has been about 48 runs worse than average, according to Ultimate Zone Rating. Only the Indians have been more inept with the leather. Per Baseball Prospectus’ Defensive Efficiency rating, Pittsburgh has converted the lowest percentage of balls put in play into outs (67.5%) of any big league team. Duke has a whopping .351 BABIP, highest among all MLB starters. While his career BABIP is elevated (.325), in part due to other lumbering Pirates teams, he has especially been the victim of a combination of poor luck and lousy defense in 2010.

He’s also finding fly balls that died at the warning track in past seasons are reaching the cheap seats this year. Duke has surrendered 23 home runs, or 1.46 HR/9. His home run per fly ball rate has jumped to 14.6%, compared to the 10-11% MLB average and his career 10.1% career mark. According to Dan Turkenkopf of The Hardball Times, PNC Park decreased homers per fly ball hit by six percent over the 2006-2009 seasons. If Duke had coughed up a homer about 10.3 percent of the time a fly ball was hit at home (the average HR/FB rate, multiplied by .94) and 11 percent on the road, he would have given up 18 HR, or 1.14 HR/9.

Despite the macabre ERA, Zach Duke is basically the same starter he has always been –ZiPS projects that he’s a 4.37 FIP pitcher moving forward. Duke is making $4.3 million this season, and even with ugly surface stats, he would likely get a modest salary bump in arbitration. Pittsburgh could non-tender him and move on, or they could try to bring him back at a lower rate. I think that he’s worth bringing back and is a serviceable starter in a vacuum. But the Pirates haven’t done Duke, Paul Maholm and other low-K arms any favors by so often failing to get to those grounders and cover the gaps. Collectively, Pirates starters have a 4.78 xFIP. That’s bad, worst in the NL in fact. Even so, that looks sparkling next to the team’s actual 5.44 ERA.

The club has to hope that Alvarez, Walker, Tabata et al take to their positions well, because starters who don’t miss bats and fielders with limited range go together like oil and water.

Don’t forget to fill out the fans scouting report ballot for your favorite team over at insidethebook.com. Diamondbacks fans and Marlins fans are especially still needed!

The Oakland Athletics languish at 65 wins and 68 losses, due mostly to a lackluster offense. The A’s can pitch, ranking third in the American League in starter xFIP and sixth in reliever xFIP. Leather is no problem either, with the green and gold saving an AL-leading 43 runs more than an average defense club. But those bats? Oakland has -32 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs, 12th in the AL.

Don’t blame Daric Barton, though. The 25-year-old first baseman has arguably emerged as the team’s best position player, and he has done it with strike-zone discipline and quality D instead of the brute force that’s typically associated with the position that he plays.

From 2007-2009, the former Cardinals prospect and Mark Mulder trade chip was basically the definition of a league-average hitter. Barton had a .328 wOBA in 799 combined plate appearances, with a 99 wRC+. He showed little pop (.145 Isolated Power), but he worked a walk in 12.6 percent of his PA. Defensively, the converted catcher helped his case by saving 5.4 runs per 150 defensive games. The A’s still held Barton in high regard entering 2010, but his mild hitting, injury issues (a neck strain in 2008 and a pulled right hamstring in 2009) and the emergence of prospect Chris Carter cast doubt upon his long-term potential. After all, how good could a singles hitter playing at the low end the defensive spectrum be?

Suffice it to say, Barton has staked his claim to first base in 2010. No, he still doesn’t fit the position’s archetype, and it’s possible that he never will — his .135 ISO ranks ahead of only James Loney among qualified first baseman. But the lefty batter is taking more base on balls than anyone else. Barton has walked 15.8% of the time, tops in the majors.

Not surprisingly, he’s not biting when a pitcher tempts him with a junk pitches thrown off the plate. Barton has swung at 16 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone, the lowest mark in the big leagues. For comparison, the MLB average this season is 29.2 percent. According to Baseball-Reference, Barton has gotten ahead in the count in 46 percent of his PA. The AL average is 35.6 percent.

Overall, Barton’s got a .367 wOBA and a 133 wRC+. Maybe he has gotten a few fortunate bounces — his BABIP is .326, while his rest-of-season ZiPS projection calls for a .308 BABIP. But even with a lower BABIP, Barton is pegged as a .357 wOBA hitter.

In addition to owning the zone, Barton has been a pickin’ machine at first base. He’s got a +13.7 UZR/150 this season. He’s probably not that good, but there are sound reasons to think he’s a defensive asset. Barton’s career UZR/150 in 2,800+ innings is +8.4. CHONE’s Total Zone, pro-rated to 150 defensive games, has Barton at +7.7 runs. CHONE’s talent level projections (updated in late August) rate him as a +5 run defender going forward.

With immaculate plate discipline and a slick glove, Barton has been worth 4.2 Wins Above Replacement. That’s in the top 30 among big league position players. While a slight dip in offense and regression in his D would make him more of a three-win player, Barton has established himself as a building block for the A’s. He’s not a slugger, but Barton’s patience and defensive prowess obviate the need for him to fit the cookie-cutter first base profile.