Continuing on with the trade value series.

#30: Josh Johnson, RHP, Florida: 3.4 WAR

This is what Ubaldo Jimenez would be with better command. The strikeouts and groundballs skillset is an ace package, and Johnson throws strikes too. His present value is extremely high, though health concerns and the fact that he’s a free agent after 2011 make this the highest he’ll ever rank. Still, a 25-year-old ace making $1.4 million this year? Teams would be killing themselves for a shot at the guy if Florida made him available.

#29: Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles: 1.9 WAR

Kershaw’s stuff is so good that even with well below average command at age 21, he’s still a good major league pitcher. He’s certainly still a work in progress, but there’s enough present value, combined with his enormous potential, to place him here during his pre-arb years.

#28: Chad Billingsley, RHP, Los Angeles: 2.4 WAR

Here, we start to get into the list of guys who just aren’t going to get traded. The Dodgers aren’t giving up their ace – he’s 24, he’s a frontline starter who they have under club control through 2012, and even with his arbitration reward coming, he’ll be vastly underpaid the next few years. Like Kershaw, he could stand to throw a few more strikes, but that’s just nit-picking.

#27: James Shields, RHP, Tampa Bay: 2.8 WAR

He might not have dominating ace-like upside, but his present value is remarkable – a durable, strike throwing machine who misses bats with a devastating change-up. His contract is unbelievably team friendly, as he’s owed just $7 million combined the next two years, then three low cost team options kick in, reducing the risk while also keeping him in Tampa Bay long term.

#26: Jay Bruce, RF, Cincinnati: 1.0 WAR

Don’t overreact to the .202 BABIP that has sunk his performance this year – he’s a 22-year-old monster power bat with defensive value as an outfielder. There’s legitimately best-player-in-baseball upside here if Bruce reaches his full potential, and he’s already a solid player. The Reds have a cornerstone foundation piece, as long as they don’t break him while trying to improve his batting average.

Continuing on with the trade value series.

#35: Nick Markakis, RF, Baltimore: 0.5 WAR

After a monster 2008, his follow-up season hasn’t gone as well – his walks and power are down, and UZR no longer loves his defense in right field. The talent is still there, though, and as a 25-year-old with across the board skills, he’ll have more seasons like his 2008 in the future. The contract extension he signed will keep him in Baltimore through at least 2014, and while he’s no longer cheap, the salaries are discounted enough to still make him a big time asset.

#34: Jon Lester, LHP, Boston: 3.4 WAR

The massive jump in strikeout rate (6.5 in 2008, 10.3 in 2009) is nearly unprecedented, and K/9 stabilizes very quickly. His velocity is up a couple of ticks, and it’s made the most impact on his curve, which is now a nasty out pitch. A 25-year-old lefty with this kind of dominance unbelievably hard to find. His contract is definitely team friendly ($30 million through 2013 or $43 million through 2014), but not the bargain basement rate that others are pitching on. If he keeps pitching like this, though, this will still look like its 20 spots too low.

#33: Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, Colorado: 3.3 WAR

This is what it looks like when a 25-year-old with the biggest fastball in the game posts a 3.23 FIP while pitching half of his games at Coors Field. Jimenez has the makings of a Brandon Webb-style groundballs and strikeouts ace, with stuff that few can match and improving command as well. He’s also due just $22 million through 2014, and the last $14 million of that is tied to club options for the final two seasons. He’s not a household name yet, but he will be if he can stay healthy.

#32: Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas: 2.8 WAR

His walks and power are up, and he’s worked hard to improve his defense at the keystone, showing that he’s not done improving despite an already strong body of work. He’s a legit 30-30 player headed into his prime and is locked up through 2013 at bargain basement rates. If he can continue to show that he’s an asset in the field at second base, than this is about 20 spots too low. Questions about whether his defensive improvement are sustainable or not hold him back for now.

#31: Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston: 2.6 WAR

The reigning AL MVP is unlikely to ever have another power spike like he did in his 2008 campaign, but he doesn’t have to if he keeps hitting .300, racking up the doubles while making obscene amounts of contact, and playing quality defense at second base. The contract extension he signed that pays him just $40 million through 2014 increases his value as well.

Continuing on with the trade value series.

#40: Tommy Hanson, RHP, Atlanta: 0.1 WAR

Despite a mediocre start to his major league career, Hanson is one of the most talented young pitchers in baseball. He put up video game like numbers in the minors and was the most impressive pitcher in the history of the Arizona Fall League last year. His four pitch mix contains two knockout breaking balls and an above average fastball. His lower present value and high risks push him down here, but he could easily be top 20 a year from now, especially considering he’s basically free for the next 3 years.

#39: Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta: 0.0 WAR

Recently promoted to Double-A at the age of 19, this is how Heyward has handled his first 32 plate appearances above Double-A: four singles, three doubles, two triples, four walks, no strikeouts. That’s how you announce that the best prospect in baseball has arrived on the scene. A big left-handed premium bat with power and plate discipline, Heyward profiles as an elite hitter with some defensive value. He could be in Atlanta next year, taking the mantle from Chipper Jones as the next great Braves hitter.

#38: Clay Buchholz, RHP, Boston: 0.0 WAR

In any other organization in baseball, Buchholz would be a regular member of the rotation. He’s mastered the minor leagues and even pitched fairly well in the majors, posting a career 4.34 FIP over 98 innings in 2007 and 2008. He’s got top notch stuff and improving command, which is why every GM in the world asks for him when they call Boston, but the Red Sox realize how valuable of an asset he is, which is why he’s still in their organization. Wherever he ends up, he’ll instantly become the future of the team’s rotation.

#37: Roy Halladay, RHP, Toronto: 4.2 WAR

Perhaps the most interesting guy on the list, because he’s actually in play. He’s the best pitcher in baseball, but he’s only signed through 2010, and his salary is prohibitive for some teams. The Blue Jays have made it clear that they’ll only trade him if they get overwhelmed, but will teams be willing to part with multiple premium players in exchange for ~45 starts from Halladay? I’m guessing Toronto will have to decide whether they want one top notch guy, or several pretty good players, because I don’t see anyone offering two players who could end up on this list next year.

#36: Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas: 1.0 WAR

He’s probably the most physically gifted player in the game, a supreme athlete with the ability to do everything on the field. He was a +4 win player in his first full season of major league playing time, and he’s improved defensively since last year. A true middle of the order hitter with defensive value, heading into his prime, and 3+ years away from free agency, he’s the prototypical franchise player. Injury concerns drag him down a bit, as does the lack of cost certainty, but on talent, he’s top five.

Continuing on with our trade value series.

#45: Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego: 2.9 WAR

How different would the perception of Gonzalez be if he didn’t play half his games in a cavern? He’s posting a .273 ISO despite playing in the best pitchers park in baseball and rarely getting a pitch to hit because his teammates are so inferior. Oh, and then, there’s his contract – he’s set to make just $13 million through 2011. The Padres fans would riot if they dealt him, but his value will never be higher than it is now.

#44: Max Scherzer, RHP, Arizona: 2.1 WAR

Though he’s been projected as a reliever by many due to command problems and concerns about his delivery, Scherzer has established himself as a quality major league starter. The classic power pitcher, he has a career 3.50 FIP between last year and this year, and he’s still a couple of years from arbitration eligibility. He hasn’t yet shown that he can endure a full 200 inning season yet, so the risk of the unknown holds him back a little bit, but the overall package is still quite valuable.

#43: Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington: 3.2 WAR

For all that is wrong with the franchise, Zimmerman is the shining beacon of goodness. A good hitter and great fielder who isn’t yet 25, he’s already one of the best players in the game and has upside beyond what he is now. The newly signed contract extension will keep him in D.C. through 2013, but at rates that are just discounted, not massive bargains. He’ll likely always be a bit undervalued because so much of his value is tied to his glove, but if Washington ever puts some major league players next to him, he’s a great foundation piece.

#42: Joba Chamberlain, RHP, New York: 0.9 WAR

So, the conversion to the rotation hasn’t gone so well yet. His velocity is down, contact against him is way up, and he’s posting a 4.78 FIP because his command hasn’t improved. However, he’s still a premium arm pitching in the toughest division in baseball, and we’ve seen what he’s capable of when he’s going right. We can’t ignore the upside just because the last month or two has been ugly. The risks are significant, however – if he doesn’t start pitching better in the near future, he could easily end up back in the bullpen. Like Hamels, high risk and reward. At least he’s still cheap.

#41: Josh Beckett, RHP, Boston: 3.5 WAR

There’s little question that Beckett is a legitimate ace, with a projected 3.46 FIP going forward that is outstanding given the context of the division he pitches in. Still just 29, he’s a front of the rotation pitcher in his prime, and he’s sustained his velocity over the years, which has to be encouraging. However, he’s also only signed through 2010, so while his present value is very high, his future value is limited, as he’s going to get very expensive very quickly.

This afternoon, I announced the beginning of the 2009 MLB Trade Value series. Today, we kick it off with the bottom five.

#50: Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee: 3.7 WAR

The big man is having the best season of his career, as he’s upped his walk rate while hitting over .300, and the power is still there. He’s an offensive beast, and at just 25 years old, he’s headed for the prime of his career. Unfortunately, he’s a couple of years away from being a DH, and the lack of defensive value limits the amount of teams that would give up the farm to get him.

#49: Jered Weaver, RHP, Anaheim: 2.5 WAR

Despite the ERA fluctuations, Weaver has been remarkably consistent since arriving in the majors, posting a FIP between 3.80 and 4.06 each year. That’s a quality pitcher, to be sure, but he’s not the ace he looked like in ’06 or earlier this year. Toss in the health concerns and his 50% flyball rate, and while most teams would love to have him, he wouldn’t command a king’s ransom as he heads into his arbitration years.

#48: Cole Hamels, LHP, Philadelphia: 1.7 WAR

After looking ace-like last October, he’s resumed being a good but not great starter this year, thanks to his home run problem. Health concerns will always be an issue with Hamels, and he’s no longer dirt cheap. He’s certainly a valuable arm with upside beyond what he is now, but the risks are fairly significant. He’s one of the guys who could easily be 30 spots higher, or nowhere near the list at all, at this time next year.

#47: Robinson Cano, 2B, New York: 2.2 WAR

Cano has rebounded from a lousy 2008 season, showing improved contact skills and finding his power stroke again, which make him one of the game’s better offensive middle infielders. He doesn’t walk and his defense isn’t great, but the rest of the package makes up for a few shortcomings. The contract extension he signed contains two team options that could keep him in pinstripes through 2013 at below market rates, as well, so he’s the rare Yankee other teams could actually afford to trade for.

#46: Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas: 1.5 WAR

He’s 20 years old and already a league average major league shortstop, thanks in large part to his defensive abilities. He has a good approach at the plate, solid contact skills, and should develop some additional power as he grows. His upside is extremely high, and he’s already a quality major league player. His reduced present value, due to the lack of current power, is the only thing that drives him this far down the list.

With the trade deadline just a few weeks away, it’s time to revisit the annual MLB Trade Value series that I’ve been doing for the last, I don’t know, four or five years. I stole the idea from Bill Simmons, who does an NBA version for ESPN.com, though my version leaves out the references to teenage soap operas and movies from 25 years ago. Sorry.

Essentially, the idea is to take all the information that goes into encapsulating a player’s value to an organization – his present skills, his future potential, how long he’s under club control, the expected cost of paying him over that time, and the risks involved with projecting his future performances – and figure out which players currently have the most trade value in baseball. The #1 guy wouldn’t get traded, straight up, for any other player in baseball. The #10 guy is someone who his organization would call untouchable, but if one of the nine guys above him was made available, they’d rethink that stance. You get the idea.

Over the last year, with the recession and the increasing intelligence of major league organizations, we’ve seen a significant rise in the valuation of young players. Where even a few years ago, people were applauding the Mariners decision to trade a bushel of talent for Erik Bedard, pretty much everyone now realizes that players like Adam Jones and Chris Tillman are more valuable than even established all-star pitchers, because of their ability to produce over multiple years for next to no salary. So, there are going to be some big name, high level talents that don’t appear on this list.

Johan Santana, for instance, isn’t on it, even though he’s a great pitcher. He’s just not great enough to justify giving up an elite talent in order to pay him premium dollars. Same with Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. Great players, but not among the top 50 assets in major league baseball.

So, over the next week, we’ll count down from #50 to #1, going in bursts of five players. We’ll kick off with #50-46 tonight at 5 pm, and then do 10 players a day for the rest of the week. The top 5 will be posted next Monday.

Making this list is hard. There’s so many good players in the game right now, and trying to decide who fits and who doesn’t feels like an impossible task at times. So, to close out the introduction, here are the five guys who just missed the cut. You could probably make a good case for any of them being included, but for me, they were just edged out by the guys above them.

Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, Boston – 3.1 WAR

He’s turned himself into a terrific player, but he’s 30 years old and has reached the stage where he’s getting paid significant money.

Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay – 4.6 WAR

He’s having an amazing season, is a switch-hitter, and amazingly versatile, but is this kind of power sustainable long term, or is he a 28-year-old having a career year?

Javier Vazquez, RHP, Atlanta – 4.0 WAR

Having the best season of his career, but his ERA is still half a run higher than his FIP, continuing his maddening career tendency to perform worse than his peripherals.

Gordon Beckham, 3B/SS, Chicago – 0.2 WAR

A year after getting drafted, he hit his way to the majors. If I was completely sure he’d be a quality defensive shortstop long term, he’d have made the list.

Pablo Sandoval, 3B/1B/C, San Francisco – 3.1 WAR

The guy once described as “Fat Ichiro” now goes by Kung Fu Panda, and while he’s a strange player, he can really hit. But he’s 22 going on 30 with that body.

As mentioned in yesterday’s article about Rich Hill, the Chicago Cubs organization is facing tough decisions on young players who are all out of minor league options. The club has already sold low on outfield prospect Felix Pie, who was dispatched to Baltimore for a No. 4 or 5 starter and a minor league pitcher. Infielder Ronny Cedeno is another player that is currently on the bubble, and he could very well find himself traded before April 5.

Due to the club’s lack of depth in other areas on the big league roster, any trade would probably have to bring back minor league talent, which would help the somewhat barren system. If the Cubs cannot find suitable trading partners for Cedeno, or for Hill, the organization may want to find a way to work the players onto the 25-man roster. Pie had the greatest trade value of the three players and the organization could only get Garrett Olson back for him.

Cedeno has the chance to be at least an average Major League starting middle infielder. He wowed a lot of people at shortstop while coming up through the minors but has not been quite as consistent at the Major League level and his range has been hampered at times. Cedeno, 26, spent a fair bit of time at second base in 2008 and looked solid, making only two errors in 273 innings.

Offensively, Cedeno is still a work in progress. He spent the majority of 2006 as the Cubs’ starting shortstop but hit just .245/.271/.339 with an ISO of .094 in 534 at-bats. Cedeno then spent the majority of the 2007 season in Triple-A where he hit .359/.422/.537 in 75 games.

In 2008, Cedeno had a chance to play a number of positions for the Cubs and showed improvements with the bat over the 2006 season by posting a line of .269/.328/.352 with an ISO of .083. Now obviously those numbers do not set the world on fire, but Cedeno showed the ability to make adjustments and improvements while also not playing every day, which can be tough for a young player.

Cedeno’s walk rate improved significantly between 2006 and 2008 and more than doubled from 3.1 to 7.7 BB%. His strikeout rate held close from 20.4 to 19.0 K%, which is still a little high for a player of his skill set (ie. zero power). Cedeno also does not show an aptitude for stealing bases, having stolen just 15 in 25 attempts in 329 MLB games.

Both the Bill James and CHONE projection systems feel Cedeno is going to show more improvements in 2009 by hitting .277/.324/.393 and .281/.332/.412, respectively. Marcel, meanwhile, sees the Venezuelan taking a small step backward.

There are a number of clubs that could benefit from a middle infielder that possesses some potential upside with the bat, as well as solid defence. Teams that could use Cedeno at shortstop include the Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins, Oakland Athletics, Cleveland Indians, and San Diego Padres.

Here is a comparison, offensively, of some of the players being considered for starting gigs by the teams listed above – all of whom are at least two years older than Cedeno.

.269/.328/.352 | $0.8 M | Ronny Cedeno (Chicago NL)
.267/.332/.356 | $1.1 M | Marco Scutaro (Toronto)
.265/.289/.429 | $1.3 M | Wilson Betemit (Chicago AL)
.284/.344/.382 | $4.0 M | Nick Punto (Minnesota)
.237/.296/.349 | $5.3 M | Bobby Crosby (Oakland)
.265/.343/.349 | $0.9 M | David Eckstein (San Diego)

How out-of-whack do the Punto and Crosby 2009 salaries look? Those teams could certainly benefit by taking a flyer on Cedeno, who has the chance to surpass each and every one of them offensively. He’s probably already a better fielder than any of those Major Leaguers- and he’s also the least expensive player on the list.

The Chicago Cubs organization will have two young players on the bubble when spring training rolls around in February. Pitcher Rich Hill, and infielder Ronny Cedeno are currently on the outside looking in when it comes to 25-man roster spots.

Unfortunately for the Cubs, both players are also out of minor league options, which means the club has three options: 1) Keep them on the 25-man roster; 2) Trade them for other talent; 3) Expose them to waivers in an attempt to send them down to the minors. If the club chooses the third option, each player would definitely end up in other organizations with zero compensation, which really leaves the club with two options: Play or trade.

Hill, 28, had a breakout 2007 season and allowed just 170 hits in 195 innings of work. He posted rates of 2.91 BB/9 and 8.45 K/9. The southpaw’s control was solid all season long, although he did walk seven batters in 11 innings over his final two starts of the season (When he also threw more pitches in back-to-back games – 219 – than he did all season).

In 2008, Hill made just five starts and did not walk fewer than three batters in any one game. In those games, he allowed just 13 hits in 19.2 innings and managed 15 strikeouts, but he walked 18 batters. The final straw came on May 2 against St. Louis when Hill went just two-thirds of an inning and allowed no hits but walked four batters.

Interestingly, his first three pitches of that game – to lead-off batter Brian Barton – were three solid strikes: fastball (looking), curveball (looking), fastball (swinging).

Next up (ironically, perhaps) was Rick Ankiel, who took four straight balls on a curveball and three fastballs. The next batter was Albert Pujols, who fouled off the first pitch and then looked at three straight balls (although Gameday shows pitch three was a pretty clear strike on a curve). Hill then received a strike call before walking Pujols on the six pitch of the at-bat.

The pitching coach visited Hill on the mound prior to Troy Glaus stepping up to the plate. When play resumed, Hill buried a curveball in the dirt. Glaus then eagerly popped up the next fastball, which would have been a borderline strike at the knees. Ditching the curveball, Hill then went after Ryan Ludwick with five straight fastballs, four of which missed the strike zone by a wide margin.

Yadier Molina then faced seven straight fastballs with the first three coming in as balls, although the first two were borderline strikes: over the plate and at the knees. The third missed way up. The next two pitches were called strikes, although they were worse than the first two that were called balls. Molina than fouled off a high fastball before Hill buried the final one in the dirt, signaling the end to his night – and season in the Majors.

The Cubs sent Hill to the minors after that game but the control did not improve. In three High-A ball games his walk rate was 8.03 BB/9 and in seven Triple-A games the rate was 9.69 BB/9. Hill continued pitching in the off-season in the Venezuelan Winter League and walked 23 batters in 21 innings.

Any trade of Hill at this point would definitely be selling low on the left-hander. But the sad truth is that this past season looked a lot like the tail end of Ankiel’s pitching career, and Hill does not have the option to pursue a second career as a hitter. More time in the minors probably won’t fix Hill’s problem, if it is indeed the dreaded Steve Blass disease. But he certainly is not going to be effective on a Major League mound while facing the best hitters on the planet with limited command and control of his pitches. It appears to be a no-win situation.

On Tuesday, I will look at Cedeno. Outfielder Felix Pie was originally part of this series before his trade to Baltimore, which hit the press on Sunday.

The recent trade of catcher Ramon Hernandez from Baltimore to Cincinnati did more than free up a spot for top catching prospect Matt Wieters. The trade also saved a little bit of cash for Baltimore and it netted the organization some minor league depth with the acquisition of prospects Justin Turner and Brandon Waring.

Turner, a middle infielder who has played mostly second base in his pro career, has done nothing but hit since signing out of Cal State Fullerton as a seventh-round draft pick in 2006. In three seasons, he has a career batting average of .310.

Last season, Turner batted .316/.372/.390 with an ISO of .074 in 136 High-A at-bats before being promoted to Double-A. At the higher level, Turner managed a line of .286/.364/.432 with an ISO of .143 in 280 at-bats. He also posted rates of 10.5 BB% and 19.3 K%.

The 24-year-old second baseman is likely half a season away from being ready to contribute at the Major League level and he adds much-needed middle infield depth to the upper levels of the minor league system.

Waring is a powerful player. Drafted in the seventh round of the 2007 draft out of a small college, the third baseman slugged 20 home runs in 68 rookie league games. In 2008, the 22-year-old moved up to A-ball and hit another 20 home runs in 119 games.

Waring also posted a line of .270/.335/.467 with an ISO of .197 in 441 at-bats. He struck out an alarming 35.4 percent of the time, while walking at a rate of 8.9 percent. His current approach at the plate suggests he will not hit for average as he nears the Majors. There are also questions about his defence and he may be unable to remain at third base, which would hurt his overall value – especially with Baltimore struggling to find a future option at that position.

Cincinnati was able to part with Waring due to the presence of third base prospects Juan Francisco, who was recently added to the 40-man roster, and Todd Frazier, who was the club’s supplemental first round draft pick in 2007. Turner was expendable for the Reds because of a glut of middle infield talent, including Chris Valaika, Adam Rosales, Paul Janish, and Zack Cozart.

Prior to the trade, neither Turner nor Waring was considered to be among Cincinnati’s top 10 prospects.

The prospect most impacted by the Ramon Hernandez-Ryan Freel trade was not directly involved in the transaction. By trading Hernandez to the Cincinnati Reds, the Baltimore Orioles all but signaled that top prospect Matt Wieters will be entrusted with the starting gig in 2009.

Currently, the Orioles’ 40-man roster does not even include a catcher with Hernandez traded and 2008 back-up Guillermo Quiroz recently designated for assignment. Wieters, the top catching prospect in all of Major League Baseball, does not have overly big shoes to fill. Hernandez managed a line of just .257/.308/.406 with a wOBA of .310 in 463 at-bats in 2008. Quiroz hit just .187/.259/.269 with a wOBA of .242 in 134 at-bats.

In his first professional season after signing as a first-round draft pick out of Georgia Tech in 2007, Wieters dominated the minor leagues with a .345/.451/.576 line in 229 High-A at-bats. He then carried that hot stick to Double-A where he hit .365/.463/.625 with an ISO of .260 in 208 at-bats. The 22-year-old catcher also showed excellent plate discipline with rates of 15.4 BB% and 13.9 K%. His wOBA at Double-A was .466. The switch-hitter performs well from both sides of the plate and posted lines of .382/.446/.740 against southpaws and .341/.455/.543 against right-handed pitching.

Defensively, Wieters is an excellent handler of pitchers, he is a leader on the field and he threw out 32 percent of those trying to steal against him in Double-A. Unfortunately, at 6’5” and 230 lbs he may outgrow the position. Regardless, Wieters has the potential to be the next big marquee name in Baltimore – somewhere between Nick Markakis and Cal Ripken. There are not many players – let alone catchers – with Wieters’ combination of power, ability to hit for average, understanding of the strike zone, leadership and defensive prowess.

From the Reds’ perspective, this trade provides some insurance in case over-aged rookie Ryan Hanigan is unable to handle the full-time catching role. The 28-year-old performed well in 2008, but he has just 95 career at-bats at the Major League level. The club also has Wilkin Castillo on the 40-man roster, who was acquired last season from the Diamondbacks in the Adam Dunn trade, but he is better as a jack-of-all-trades utility player and third string catcher – and he could also benefit from some more minor league seasoning.

Continuing on in the week long series on the 50 most valuable assets in major league baseball. If you missed the introduction, it can be found here.

Ranking, Player, Position, Franchise, 2006-2008 WPA/LI
5. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis, 13.79 WPA/LI
4. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets, 9.05 WPA/LI
3. Grady Sizemore, CF, Cleveland, 8.47 WPA/LI
2. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida, 7.11 WPA/LI
1. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay, 0.80 WPA/LI

Pujols is the perfect hitter. Among active players, he has the highest career batting average, second highest career on base percentage (only Coors-aided Todd Helton is higher), and highest career slugging percentage. There is literally no one in the game that can compare to his abilities with a bat in his hands. He has remarkable bat control, a great approach, and terrific power. And, just for good measure, he’s made himself an outstanding defensive first baseman – perhaps the best in the league. Even at $16 million a year through 2011, he’s still a ridiculous bargain for the level of play he provides. Only the nagging injuries that have kept him out of the line-up too frequently keep him from being further up this list, but make no mistake, we will all tell our grandchildren that we got to watch the great Pujols play.

When you have a 25-year-old third baseman who hits like Mike Schmidt, you sign him up for as long as you possibly can and do a happy dance. That’s what the Mets did with Wright, inking him to a deal that will keep him in Queens through 2013. Wright’s a very good hitter, and there’s still room for power growth that could allow him to make the leap to great hitter. His defense at third has improved quite a bit, and the offense he provides from the hot corner at a young age makes him a legitimate star.

Still just 25-years-old, Sizemore has added legitimate home run power to his repertoire this year, as he’s just two home runs away from matching his 2007 season total before this year’s all-star break. The power surge, combined with a slight decrease in strikeout rate, shows the maturation of a player just entering his prime. He has a legitimate chance to go 40-40 this year, and oh yea, he plays a pretty good center field as well. He will never be the premier player in the game at any one particular skill, but his excellence at everything makes him a superstar. While it’s been a disappointing year in Cleveland, the Indians’ fans have to be happy that they have this kid under contract for the next four years for a total of $26 million. He’s the building block around which a great franchise can be established, and the production he gives his team for what their paying him makes him one of the game’s truly great assets.

I expect there to be a minor outrage that Ramirez isn’t #1 on this list, and when the assumption that you’re the second most valuable asset in the game is controversial, you know you’re pretty special. Ramirez’s bat has developed far faster than anyone could have expected, and he’s turned into one of the premier power/speed guys we’ve seen in the last fifty years. In the history of baseball, only 13 players have posted an Isolated Slugging Percentage of .200 or higher in the same year that they stole 50+ bases. Here is that list. Look at the names on there – Cobb, Henderson, Morgan, Bonds – and you’ll see just how impressive Ramirez’s combination of skills are. And just in case the offense isn’t impressive enough, he plays shortstop. Sort of. Because as great of a hitter as he is, Ramirez isn’t really much defensively, and realistically, he should probably be in center field. While he has the physical tools to handle shortstop, the instincts and reactions just aren’t there, and his skills would be maximized in the outfield, where his raw speed would allow him to make up for the first step that he doesn’t have. While it takes away some of the value of his bat, it certainly doesn’t diminish Ramirez’s value much – he’s still a franchise player and a great, great talent.

And now, for the most valuable asset in major league baseball – Evan Longoria.

Yes, I know, he only has a half season of major league experience, and we have to be careful drawing too many conclusions from sample sizes that don’t include more than 300 major league at-bats. However, the value of his abilities is so great, and his contract is so ridiculously awesome for Tampa, that the positives more than outweigh the negatives and make him the guy I wouldn’t trade for any other one player in the game.

He’s just 22 years old, but he already is showing legitimate middle of the order power, posting a .256 ISO thanks to 39 of his 79 hits going for extra bases. When you have a kid who can drive the ball like Longoria can at a young age, you have a special hitter in the making. The power is simply a pleasant surprise, however, as Longoria is a legitimate all around hitter who has a good approach at the plate and can hit to all fields. We’re not looking at an Adam Dunn type of slugger, but rather a complete hitter who can also turn on a fastball and put it in the seats. Meanwhile, his defense is nearly as good as his offense, as he’s already one of the game’s best defensive third baseman. He has enough range that it wouldn’t be a stretch for him to play shortstop, and the Rays have already acknowledged this ability by putting him there earlier this year. His hands and footwork are top notch, and his abilities with the glove are reminiscent of a younger Scott Rolen. While he’s going to be a terrific hitter, he’s also going to toss in top shelf defense as well. You just don’t find 22-year-olds who are this good at both aspects of the game this soon.

On ability, he’s terrific, but it’s really the contract that he just signed that puts him over the top. Tampa wisely saw a star in the making and decided to strike early, locking him up to a contract that gives them the ability to keep him around for eight more years after this one, and at salaries that are going to be laughably low by the end of this deal. He signed away the absolute prime of his career for an absolute maximum of about $50 million, and Tampa is only on the hook for a guaranteed $17.5 million through 2013. If Longoria gets hurt and regresses significantly, well, they didn’t pay him much anyway. If he turns into the perennial all-star that we should expect him to, then he might go down as the least compensated superstar in recent history.

When you have a 22-year-old who can hit, field, run, and has agreed to play for bargain salaries until he’s 31, well, you have a player you just shouldn’t trade.

Continuing on in the week long series on the 50 most valuable assets in major league baseball. If you missed the introduction, it can be found here.

Ranking, Player, Position, Franchise, 2006-2008 WPA/LI
10. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado, -1.00 WPA/LI
9. Tim Lincecum, RHP, San Francisco, 2.45 WPA/LI
8. Felix Hernandez, RHP, Seattle, 3.22 WPA/LI
7. Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia, 10.49 WPA/LI
6. Brian McCann, C, Atlanta, 2.84 WPA/LI

When he’s healthy enough to take the field, you can count on one hand the list of human beings on the planet who are better defensively than Tulowitzki. According to pretty much every possible way you could evaluate defense – stats, scouts, magic 8 ball – Tulo was somewhere between 20 and 30 runs better than an average defensive shortstop last year. Shortstops are, of course, the very best defenders in the game already, so Tulo was heads and shoulders ahead of the best of the best. When recounting how Colorado made it to the World Series last year, nothing deserves mention before Tulo’s defense. There are still legitimate questions about whether he’s just going to be an average hitter or develop into a good one, but here’s the thing – if he puts up a major league average offensive line, his defense is good enough to make him a 4 to 5 win player alone. If he turns himself into a real hitter, he’ll be the best player in the game. The Rockies were wise to lock him up when they did.

There haven’t been too many college arms in recent years that caused as much division coming into the draft as Lincecum. His diminutive size, unorthodox mechanics, and crazy workloads at the University of Washington convinced a lot of people that the risks surrounding him had reached the level of red flags. The Giants, however, ignored the risks, focused on the reward, and have reaped the benefits of one of the game’s best young pitchers. Lincecum’s power arsenal allows him to miss enough bats that the lack of command isn’t a huge problem, and he’s dominated the National League since showing up in San Francisco. At 24 and with just over one full year of service time, he’s a long way from any kind of real payday, and as long as he keeps his right arm attached to the rest of his body, he’s going to keep getting people out with his unique pitching style.

I, among others, have been hyping up King Felix for so long that a significant portion of people view him as a disappointment for not turning into the game’s best pitcher to date, so I feel somewhat compelled to remind those people that Felix is still 22 years old. He has racked up just short of 600 major league innings at an age where a normal pitching prospect is still in Double-A. He’s shown extended flashes of brilliance, and his stuff is still better than any other pitcher alive. The upside is still off the charts, and there’s an argument to be made that trading him right now, for anyone, would be selling low. However, he’s garnered enough service time that he stops being free next year, and he’s a couple of years away from what will almost certainly be the biggest free agent contract ever given to a pitcher. As much as I love Felix, he still hasn’t become the ace he can be, and he’s going to get paid like the greatest pitcher in history pretty soon. It’s time to take your throne, kid.

There’s a pretty good argument to be made that, right now, Utley is the best player in baseball. His consistency over the last four years has made him one of the game’s truly elite hitters, and it doesn’t hurt that he plays a terrific second base. There are better hitters, and there are better fielders, but there aren’t any who offer a better package of both. If he doesn’t win an MVP award soon, he should just steal the pair that have already been given to his undeserving teammates. However, he’s already 29, second baseman don’t age particularly well, and he’s getting paid like an All-Star. That’s enough to knock him down a few pegs on this list, but don’t let it talk you out of realizing just how great he really is.

The return of McCann’s 2006 power has allowed him to re-establish himself as the game’s premier offensive force behind the plate, and at just 24, he’s off to the kind of start to a career that ends in Cooperstown. When you offer the combination of middle-of-the-order offense and the ability to catch, you have a remarkably valuable player. The Braves got McCann signed long term at the right time, and thanks to their prescience, he won’t earn market value until he becomes a free agent in 2014. By then, Atlanta will have received the prime years of his career for a grand total of $27 million. That’s a huge asset.

We’re going to take a pause for the holiday weekend and finish off the top ten on Monday, but wanted to give you guys a chance to see the list up through #11 in one big post. Feel free to put your guesses for the top ten in the comments and we’ll see how well you guys do on Monday.

11 B.J. Upton, CF, Tampa
12 Josh Hamilton, CF, Texas
13 Cole Hamels, LHP, Philadelphia
14 Brandon Webb, RHP, Arizona
15 Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota
16 Justin Upton, RF, Arizona
17 Jay Bruce, RF, Cincinnati
18 Russell Martin, C, Los Angeles
19 Jose Reyes, SS, New York Mets
20 Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee
21 Roy Halladay, RHP, Toronto
22 Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit
23 Scott Kazmir, LHP, Tampa Bay
24 Josh Beckett, RHP, Boston
25 Chad Billingsley, RHP, Los Angeles
26 Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit
27 Dan Haren, RHP, Arizona
28 Geovany Soto, C, Chicago Cubs
29 James Shields, RHP, Tampa Bay
30 Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee
31 Joba Chamberlain, RHP, New YorK Yankees
32 Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles
33 Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego
34 Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas
35 Lance Berkman, 1B, Houston
36 Curtis Granderson, CF, Detroit
37 Edinson Volquez, RHP, Cincinnati
38 Dan Uggla, 2B, Florida
39 John Lackey, RHP, Anaheim
40 Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees
41 Jake Peavy, RHP, San Diego
42 Chipper Jones, 3B, Atlanta
43 Dustin McGowan, RHP, Toronto
44 Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Boston
45 Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
46 Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington
47 Carlos Zambrano, RHP, Chicago Cubs
48 Clay Buchholz, RHP, Boston
49 Johan Santana, LHP, New York Mets
50 James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles

Continuing on in the week long series on the 50 most valuable assets in major league baseball. If you missed the introduction, it can be found here.

Ranking, Player, Position, Franchise, 2006-2008 WPA/LI
15. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota, 6.09 WPA/LI
14. Brandon Webb, RHP, Arizona, 8.14 WPA/LI
13. Cole Hamels, LHP, Philadelphia, 4.65 WPA/LI
12. Josh Hamilton, CF, Texas, 3.37 WPA/LI
11. B.J. Upton, CF, Tampa Bay, 1.99 WPA/LI

In some circles, Mauer is considered a disappointment because he simply hasn’t developed the home run power that people thought he would grow into. However, if we focus on what Mauer doesn’t do, we’ll miss what he does exceptionally well, and that’s everything else. He’s a 25-year-old outstanding defensive catcher with a career .397 OBP. His command of the strike zone is impeccable, and he has enough juice to drive the ball into the gaps and rack up a significant amount of doubles. Behind the plate, he controls the running game and pitchers love working with him. He’s heading into his physical prime as an elite catcher already. He doesn’t need to add power to be a star – he’s already one.

The best pitcher in baseball checks in at #14 simply because he’s only under contract through 2010. If the D’backs could have locked him up for several more years without paying market rate, he’d have been in the top ten. You can’t really build a pitcher much better than Webb – extreme groundball nature from his diving sinker, good strikeout stuff that he can use for a punch out when he needs it, solid command, and extremely durable. He’s thrown 1,200 innings in just 180 career starts. There are no ups and downs with him – you know exactly what you’re getting, season in and season out. He’s the definition of an ace.

The first time I ever saw Hamels pitch, he was throwing for low-Class A Lakewood in the South Atlantic League. I was sitting behind the plate with some scouts (including Dave Winfield) and was wondering what the big deal was. He was sitting between 88-92 with a fastball that didn’t move all that much and he left up in the zone, and his curveball was just okay, but nothing special. Then, out of nowhere, he throws a change-up that was so ridiculously awesome that I literally jumped out of my chair. He then threw about 15 more while we all felt pity on the poor 18-year-old kids trying to hit this pitch. That change-up is still amazing, and still making hitters look foolish five years later. Durability will likely always be a concern, but talent never is.

Hamilton was another guy who was tough to place on this list. On one hand, he’s established himself as one of the premier left-handed hitters in baseball over the last year and a half, displaying ridiculous power and using his unique physical gifts to complete an offensive package that is tough to match. His raw ability is as good as anyone in baseball, and it’s remarkable how good he is right now considering how much development time he lost. He’s also just in his second year of service, so he’s four and a half years from free agency. However, we can’t overlook the fact that he’s 27, and unlike some of the people ahead of him on this list, he probably doesn’t have a full decade of greatness in front of him. As much as I like Hamilton, the peak is probably going to be too short for me to get him into the top ten.

Upton is quite the interesting player. We know he’s got power – he posted a .209 ISO last year and has 96 career extra base hits. We know he has a good approach at the plate – He’s got a 13.5% walk rate dating back to the start of the 2007 season, and he’s cut his strikeout rate dramatically from last season. We know he can run, as he’s stolen 45 bases in the last year and a half and has made the transition to center field well. The physical abilities are all there, and at times, they’ve all been manifest in his performances. But he’s yet to put the whole package together, and that’s the scary part – at just 23 years old, he’s still got a good bet of room to improve, and he’s already a highly valuable player. Tampa should work on locking him up sooner than later, because the longer they wait, the more its going to cost them. He isn’t going to get less valuable any time soon.

Continuing on in the week long series on the 50 most valuable assets in major league baseball. If you missed the introduction, it can be found here.

Ranking, Player, Position, Franchise, 2006-2008 WPA/LI
20. Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee, 5.05 WPA/LI
19. Jose Reyes, SS, New York Mets, 3.40 WPA/LI
18. Russell Martin, C, Los Angeles, 4.04 WPA/LI
17. Jay Bruce, RF, Cincinnati, 0.23 WPA/LI
16. Justin Upton, RF, Arizona, 0.17 WPA/LI

Braun is just a tough nut to crack. The power is ridiculous, and as we saw last year, he can succeed with his aggressive approach at the plate. However, since he just refuses to walk, he has to make his contact count. He’s just 24, and there’s room for growth, but he’s already had to shift down the defensive spectrum once. The bat is going to carry him, but the way he approaches his at-bats is going to keep him from being as good as he could be otherwise. There’s room for more, but for right now, I can’t put him any higher than this.

There’s been a lot of attention on Reyes the last few years for his attitude and issues that people have had with how he plays the game, but lost in that shuffle is that he’s still a pretty remarkable player. By any measure, he’s an above average hitter, and he plays a pretty nifty shortstop. He’s also 25, and he’s got the skillset that ages very well. He’s heading into his prime as an all-star up-the-middle player, and the Mets have him locked up through 2011. Unless they finish the season well, there is going to be pressure on the Mets to make some changes to their roster this winter – Jose Reyes shouldn’t be one of the things they should be changing.

Martin doesn’t have a normal catcher’s skillset, which shouldn’t surprise us much since the Dodgers converted him from a third baseman into being a catcher. It’s worked well, as his work behind the plate draws rave reviews from pitchers and scouts alike, and his command of the strike zone and contact ability have turned him into an on base machine as a hitter. No, he doesn’t have much power and he never will, but he’s doing a terrific Jason Kendall impersonation.

Bruce announced his presence with authority after the Reds called him up, but after a ridiculous start, pitchers started to take advantage of his aggressiveness. Don’t let the slump fool you, though – Bruce is a legitimate major league hitter at age 21, and his ceiling couldn’t be any higher. The comparisons to Larry Walker might not be fair, but they’re not that far off the mark. Bruce is a monster, and he’s going to be a devastating hitter for a long, long time.

Take the above paragraph and replace Bruce with Upton, and then change “age 21″ to “age 20″. Both made an instant impact, have experienced growing pains, but both are legitimate major leaguers at a very young age. Upton might not match Bruce for raw power, but he’s going to be a better defensive player and draw a few more walks. Trying to pick between which of these two kids would rank ahead of the other was rough, but in the end, you can’t go wrong either way. They’re both great.

Continuing on in the week long series on the 50 most valuable assets in major league baseball. If you missed the introduction, it can be found here.

Ranking, Player, Position, Franchise, 2006-2008 WPA/LI
25. Chad Billingsley, RHP, Los Angeles, 2.03 WPA/LI
24. Josh Beckett, RHP, Boston, 6.22 WPA/LI
23. Scott Kazmir, LHP, Tampa, 4.40 WPA/LI
22. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit, 9.55 WPA/LI
21. Roy Halladay, RHP, Toronto, 8.84 WPA/LI

Billingsley is a terrific young pitcher who is coming into his own in ’08, raising his strikeout rate even further while cementing his spot in the Dodgers rotation. At just 24, and with not even two full years of service under his belt, the Dodgers have control over one of the game’s best under-25 arms through 2012. However, there are still questions about him – can he improve his command in order to reduce his pitch count and work more innings? Can he hold up over a 200 inning season? We simply don’t know the answers to these questions yet, so as talented as he is, he can’t be much higher on this list. Given a season to answer some of those questions, he might find himself much higher at this time next year.

At 28, Josh Beckett is in his prime. The walks are a problem of the past, and he’s managed to command the strike zone without losing his strikeout stuff, making him one of the game’s very best pitchers. He’s on track to throw 200 innings for the third straight season, and since the Red Sox have him under control through 2010, they have to be quite happy with their ace. Flags fly forever, and all that, so there’s no way they can wish they hadn’t acquired Beckett and Mike Lowell, but man, was the price ever high. We’ll get to that guy later.

After providing a spring training scare with yet another arm injury, Kazmir has sparked since returning, with better control of his stuff allowing him to pitch like a true all-star in 2008. This is the guy that everyone has always expected Kazmir to become, and at just 24, he’s heading into the prime of what should be a very productive career. However, the questions about his durability linger, and while the Rays were able to lock him up through 2012, it was at a per year salary of over $9 million. He’s not the financial bargain that some others are, but on talent, there aren’t many guys you’d want before Kazmir.

The Tigers paid a king’s ransom for Cabrera this winter, and why not? Heading into his age 25 season, his most comparable players through the early part of his career read like a stroll through the Hall of Fame. His career averages were staggering, and he had cemented himself as the game’s greatest young hitter. But, things haven’t worked out for the first few months of his Detroit career – the experiment with him playing third base has ended with the inevitable move across the diamond, and his offense is down across the board. There’s no reason to think this is his real talent level, but that doesn’t help alleviate the disappointment. He’s going to hit better than this, but now, as a first baseman making huge money, he has to.

Halladay is tied for the American League lead in complete games in 2008… with the Cleveland Indians. He has, by himself, more complete games this year than 29 of the 30 teams in baseball. Only the Indians pitching staff has been able to match his six complete games, and, you know, they’re a pitching staff. He’s one guy. It’s hilarious how much better he is at this than the rest of the world. If he was signed longer than the next two and a half years, he’d rank a lot higher on this list, because he’s as much a sure thing as any pitcher alive. His combination of strikes and groundballs have already earned him one Cy Young, and he’s doing his best to get another this year.

Continuing on in the week long series on the 50 most valuable assets in major league baseball. If you missed the introduction, it can be found here.

Ranking, Player, Position, Franchise, 2006-2008 WPA/LI
30. Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee, 7.32 WPA/LI
29. James Shields, RHP, Tampa, 3.20 WPA/LI
28. Geovany Soto, C, Chicago Cubs, 1.14 WPA/LI
27. Dan Haren, RHP, Arizona, 3.45 WPA/LI
26. Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit, 3.91 WPA/LI

Fielder hit .288/.395/.618 as a 23-year-old and he makes $670,000 this year. On a per dollar basis, there aren’t many players who are earning less for what they produced last year. Concerns about his size and how well he will age, as well as the fact that Milwaukee wasn’t able to buy out any of his free agent years with a long term deal, suppresses his value a bit. He’s going to become decently compensated once he hits arbitration this winter, and getting a deal done now is going to be a lot harder.

When describing Shields a few years ago, I called him the new Brad Radke, and while he’s posting a bit better strikeout rate, the comparison still holds. Shields has a devastating change-up and impeccable command, and the combination has been a great one for the Tampa youngster. He’s proven to be a durable, consistent starter, and while he doesn’t have lights out stuff, his level of production makes him one of the league’s best young starters. Toss in the fact that Tampa signed him to a contract extension that will pay him at most $38 million through 2014, and you have one of the league’s great bargains.

Soto had 87 plate appearances as a major leaguer heading into the 2008 season, so it says something for how good he’s been this year that he finds himself in the 28th spot on this list. Offense from a catcher is a huge advantage, and Soto hasn’t stopped hitting since arriving in Chicago last year. His offensive surge is one of the main reasons the Cubs have the best record in the National League, and as a 25-year-old backstop who won’t qualify for free agency until after 2013, some might say that Soto is too low at this placement. However, we can’t ignore the fact that two years ago, he was struggling to hit Triple-A pitching and his track record is pretty mixed. I’m pretty sure Soto is for real, but I’m less sure about him than I am the guys in front of him.

Another player who was fairly easy to place on the list considering that he was traded last winter for a bevy of prospects, giving us a pretty good idea of what teams would give up to acquire Haren. Oakland received six players, including several who are making key contributions this year, in a much better package than what the Twins got for Johan Santana. Arizona decided it was worth the significant haul to get Haren into their rotation, and since he’s signed through 2010 at bargain basement prices, it’s easy to understand why.

Verlander was a bit tougher. As we documented early in the season, his velocity didn’t leave spring training with him, and it’s never good when a young pitcher suddenly loses his fastball. However, Verlander has shrugged off the injury concerns, rebounded from a poor start, and is reminding everyone why he was in every conversation about the best young pitchers in baseball. He signed a major league contract coming out of college that locked him up for nothing through 2009, but it contains a clause that lets him void the deal if he’s eligible for arbitration, which he will be.

Continuing on in the week long series on the 50 most valuable assets in major league baseball. If you missed the introduction, it can be found here.

Ranking, Player, Position, Franchise, 2006-2008 WPA/LI
35. Lance Berkman, 1B, Houston, 13.93 WPA/LI
34. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego, 6.91 WPA/LI
33. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas, 2.03 WPA/LI
32. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles, -0.13 WPA/LI
31. Joba Chamberlain, RHP, New York Yankees, 1.93 WPA/LI

Just to make sure that no one thought his .896 OPS last year was the beginning of a decline, Berkman has gone on a super human tear in 2008, posting the best half year of his life and putting himself firmly in the race for NL MVP. A power hitter who also controls the strike zone, Berkman is Pujols-lite, and his glove work at first base is a lot better than it was in the outfield. He gave the Astros a home town discount when they re-signed him, and considering how reasonable his contract is for a player of his abilities, he’d be one of the most coveted hitters on the market if Houston ever made him available. Which they won’t.

Gonzalez has established himself as a real star by doing the impossible – posting a .500+ SLG% while playing half his game in Petco Park for three consecutive years. If he played in any other park in baseball, the world would know Gonzalez as one of the game’s best hitters, but his environment and the Padres relative anonymity have kept him flying below the radar. However, at age 26, Gonzalez has become a real offensive force and also one of the game’s best defensive first baseman. He’s signed through 2010, but I’m betting that San Diego will pick up the $5.5 million option they have for 2011 as well.

Kinsler is known for his power, but did you know he’s got 54 career stolen bases while only being caught 7 times? He has a chance to go 30-30 this year, and while his home park certainly helps him, he’d be a good player on any field in America. He’s not as good as he’s hitting right now, but he doesn’t have to keep up this level of performance to establish himself as an all-star. The Rangers decision to lock him up through 2013 looks like a very good one.

Kershaw is one of the better young left-handed starting pitching prospects we’ve seen in years. He’s often compared to Scott Kazmir, though it’s quite possible that Kershaw could be even better. At just 20-years-old, he’s showing that he’s not quite ready to carry a rotation yet (his command, in particular, needs some work), but the talent is obvious, and the ceiling with this kid is very, very high.

How much do I really need to write about Joba? If you’ve been alive for the last year, you know the deal – top prospect becomes dominant reliever, steals the hearts and minds of New York, and is now making the transition back to the starting rotation. Despite some normal bumps in the road while getting stretched out, his recent starts have shown why the Yankees want him on the hill every five days instead of keeping him in the bullpen. His stuff is still top shelf, and his ability to miss bats and throw strikes give him the chance to be an elite starting pitcher. That’s just simply more valuable than any reliever, and the Yankees made the right choice.

Continuing on in the week long series on the 50 most valuable assets in major league baseball. If you missed the introduction, it can be found here.

Ranking, Player, Position, Franchise, 2006-2008 WPA/LI
40. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York, 10.06 WPA/LI
39. John Lackey, RHP, Anaheim, 7.48 WPA/LI
38. Dan Uggla, 2B, Florida, 4.01 WPA/LI
37. Edinson Volquez, RHP, Cincinnati, 1.18 WPA/LI
36. Curtis Granderson, CF, Detroit, 4.14 WPA/LI

There wasn’t a harder player on this list to place than A-Rod. On talent, he’s still top ten, even at age 32. He’s one of the greatest players of all time, and he would be a first ballot Hall of Famer if he never played another day in his life. However, that contract he just signed with New York last winter – no other team in baseball even came calling when they had a shot to acquire him without giving up any talent, and at the price he’ll now command through 2017, there are a lot of teams that wouldn’t claim him even if he were placed on waivers. However, for those few teams that would be willing to take on that deal, he’s remarkably valuable, and we can’t overlook that he’s still among the league’s absolute best.

I talked about Lackey last week, and really, if he wasn’t a free agent after 2009, he’d rank quite a bit higher. He’s very good, very durable, and a bargain for the next year and a half. He’s going to get a huge paycheck whenever he signs his next extension, though, so his window as a significant financial asset is closing rapidly. Teams looking for an ace to make a run the next two years would pay a lot for Lackey, but his value is on the way down, and he almost certainly won’t be on this list next year.

Uggla probably swings the bat harder than anyone else alive, and he’s taken that grip-it-and-rip-it approach and turned it into the home run lead in the National League. The former Rule 5 pick has established that his power is for real, and since he makes just a bit more than nada, the Marlins are able to build a potent offense around players like him while keeping a shoestring payroll. However, for those who will argue that his ’08 performance means that he should be higher up on this list, Uggla comes with some deficiencies, especially on the defensive end. He’s bad enough with the glove that his real position is probably third base, and the bat is a little less special over there than it is at an up the middle spot. He’s also 28 – not the spring chicken that you might expect for a guy in his third league.

Barring a second half collapse, Volquez is going to run away with the breakthrough performance of 2008. No, he’s not this good, but his stuff has always been there and the performance is built on sustainable skills. He isn’t second in the league in strikeouts by accident – his combination of velocity and movement is good for generating swings and misses, and he’s getting a ton of ground balls even when hitters do make contact. The command is a real problem, and he’s going to have to throw more strikes, but if the Reds put him on the trade market right now, Walt Jocketty’s phone wouldn’t stop ringing.

Granderson busted through a year ago, posting a ridiculously awesome season to raise his status from good player to top notch center fielder. He’s not quite as good as he was last year, but as a good center fielder with legitimate power and speed, he’s a legitimate two way weapon for the Tigers. They were smart enough to lock him up long term for a piddly $30 million through his prime years, and will be reaping the rewards of his goodness through 2012 at least.

Continuing on in the week long series on the 50 most valuable assets in major league baseball. If you missed the introduction, it can be found here.

Ranking, Player, Position, Franchise, 2006-2008 WPA/LI
45. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees, 0.14 WPA/LI
44. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Boston, 1.10 WPA/LI
43. Dustin McGowan, RHP, Toronto, 1.59 WPA/LI
42. Chipper Jones, 3B, Atlanta, 10.59 WPA/LI
41. Jake Peavy, RHP, San Diego, 4.91 WPA/LI

Cano’s disastrous 2008 season has hurt his stock, no doubt, but we can’t place too much emphasis on three months of results. He’s a 25 year old second baseman with established offensive skills who has hit a rough stretch, but this isn’t his true talent level. He’s also signed to a below market contract that makes him a bargain for the next four years. He will rebound from his poor start and again take his place as one of the more valuable second baseman in the game.

Ellsbury was tough to slot because opinions about his abilities are so diverse. Boston is obviously in love with his defensive abilities and his willingness to get on base, but the lack of power is a real concern, and I don’t see the star potential in him that other players on this list have. His realistic best case scenario is a quality contributor but certainly not a franchise player. However, because of his current skill level as a premium defender with a bat that can play in the majors, he’s got enough current value that his contract status makes him a huge bargain. League average up-the-middle players command a fortune, so paying Ellsbury $400,000 to provide that value is enough to make Ellsbury a significant asset.

McGowan is in the absolute upper tier of stuff among major league starters, throwing a 95 MPH fastball and an 88 MPH slider that are both legitimate knockout punches. However, he simply hasn’t reached the level of performance that his talent would indicate is possible, and his decline in strikeout and groundball rates from 2007 without any improvement in command has to be a concern. Because he’s still dirt cheap and a high quality arm, he would be a coveted player in the trade market, but he’s going to have to improve soon to avoid becoming the new Javier Vazquez.

Chipper forced himself onto the list with his absurd performance the last few years, proving that he is still one of the better hitters alive even at age 36. The production is so valuable, however, that the market for Chipper would still be quite robust if the Braves ever lost their minds and decided to trade him. Even with only a few more good years ahead of him, the current value is so high, and his contract more than reasonable, that teams would be lining up to acquire the Hall of Fame third baseman.

On talent, Peavy is much higher than this. However, the new contract extension he signed that keeps him in San Diego will cost $52 million over the 2010-2012 seasons, and Peavy isn’t exactly a low-risk starting pitcher. There aren’t many tea s out there that could afford the risk of having a $17 million pitcher with his history of injury problems on the books, and while he’s a really good pitcher, he wouldn’t be as good anywhere else as he is in Petco and the NL West. Like Johan, the contract pushes him much further down the list than he would otherwise be.