The Favorites:
1. Randy Wells, RHP, Chicago
Wells is ninth in the league in lowest BB/9 at 2.09 BB/9 and second amongst rookies behind Josh Geer. Wells is also 20th in K/BB at 2.72, although he’s eight spots below Zimmermann. The Chicago righty is comfortably in the lead amongst rookies and 16th overall in lowest HR/9 at 0.75. Wells has the 17th lowest FIP in the NL at 3.72, while Happ is at 34th (with an ERA/FIP difference of -1.32).

2. J.A. Happ, LHP, Philadelphia
Happ is tops amongst (healthy) rookies in K/9 at 6.52 (minimum 90 IPs), but that is good for just 35th in the NL. Zimmermann (on his way to Tommy John surgery) was tops amongst rookies and ninth overall at 9.07 K/9. Happ is 10th in the league in lowest-average-allowed at .233, 12 spots ahead of Wells and 13 spots ahead of Kawakami. Happ is 10th in the NL in WHIP, followed directly by Wells in the 11th hole. Happ also has the fourth lowest BABIP allowed at .262 (Wells is at 15th).

3. Dexter Fowler, CF, Colorado
Fowler is 21st in the league with a BB% rate at 13.6 (minimum 200 plate appearances), 10 spots ahead of Ryan Hanigan (who also has the 12th lowest K% at 10.9%, and the fifth best BB/K). Fowler has the seventh highest BABIP in the NL at .365, while rookies Chris Dickerson and Parra come in next at 16th and 17th, respectively. Fowler has 10 stolen bases more than any other rookie with 26 total. He performs terribly in center field according to UZR, and is rated last in the league in that category.

4. Andrew McCutchen, CH, Pittsburgh
McCutchen is second in rookies in OPS at .834. He’s also second in slugging and third in batting average. He doesn’t stand out in any one offensive category right now, but he has good all-around numbers. McCutchen has shown the best range in center field amongst the rookies, although he has not fared well in UZR. Colby Rasmus leads rookie center fielders in that category by a wide margin.

5. Casey McGehee, UTL, Milwaukee
McGehee has the slight edge on batting average over Parra, but he also has about 100 fewer plate appearances. None of the rookies are amongst the leaders in average in the National League. McGehee is the only rookie with an ISO above .200 at .203. good for 32nd in the league. He is also first in rookies with an OPS of .864. Defensively, he’s been average-at-best at second base and quite below-average at third base.

Watch Out For:
Tommy Hanson, RHP, Atlanta
Hanson is hurt by his lack of innings, but he could make a run at the top spot with a solid month of September.

Kenshin Kawakami, RHP, Atlanta
This Japanese veteran is reliable and plugs along, but he doesn’t really deserve consideration for the award given his professional experience.

Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, Washington
If not for his injury, Zimmermann would be a favorite for the award given how well he’s pitched, based on numerous categories.

Chris Coghlan, LF, Florida
Like McCutchen, Coghlan has solid overall numbers, but does not stand out in any one area. Defensively, he has not performed well according to UZR.

Gerardo Parra, CF, Arizona
Parra leads rookies with eight triples, but has stolen just five bases in 10 attempts. His defensive play has been pretty average.

The Favorites:
1. Brett Anderson, LHP, Oakland
Anderson holds the narrow edge over Romero is K/9 with 7.25, good for 18th in the league for pitchers with more than 90 innings pitched. Anderson has the 12th lowest FIP in the AL at 3.91, six spots ahead of Bergesen. The southpaw also has the second lowest line-drive rate in the AL, four spots head of Porcello.

2. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas
Andrus and Brett Gardner are tied for 12th in the league in steals with 20. Among AL shortstops, Andrus leads in UZR and range factor.

3. Brad Bergesen, RHP, Baltimore
Bergesen is 12th in the league in BB/9 (90 IP+), five spots ahead of Anderson. He’s also 12th in the league in HR/9 at 0.80, five spots ahead of Niemann.

4. Gordon Beckham, 3B, Chicago
Beckham leads rookies in batting average (200 PA minimum) but is just 35th in the league. He also has the highest BABIP for rookies at .331, 26th in the league. Defensively, UZR doesn’t like Beckham, but he has shown good range.

5. Andrew Bailey, RHP, Oakland
Bailey is seventh in the AL in saves with 17 (40 IP+). He’s also eighth amongst all AL relievers in K/9 with a rate of 10.13. The right-hander is helped by a low .249 BABIP.

Watch Out For:
Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore
He had a slow start to his MLB career, but this promising catcher is really playing well now… It remains to be seen, though, if he can catch up to all of the rookies above.

Nolan Reimold, LF, Baltimore
Reimold is tops in BB% at 11.5%, but that is good for just 34th in the league. No rookie is amongst the top 35 hitters in OPS, ISO or wOBA. Defensively, he’s one of the worst left fielders in the AL.

Ricky Romero, LHP, Toronto
Romero is often the second or third best rookie pitcher in any one of the categories, including K/9 and GB%.

Rick Porcello, RHP, Detroit
Porcello has the highest ground-ball rate in the American League at 56%, two spots ahead of Romero, five spots ahead of Bergesen and seven spots ahead of Anderson.

Jeff Niemann, RHP, Tampa Bay
Niemann has the 14th lowest batting-average-allowed in the league, four spots ahead of Romero.

This week we’re taking a look at some of the top rookies in Major League Baseball in an attempt to ascertain who is the most deserving candidate for Rookie of the Year in both the American and National Leagues. Today, we’ll take a look at three rookie pitchers in the National League who have performed fairly well in their first seasons as they chase the Rookie of the Year award. On Monday we looked at the top rookie hitters in the AL, on Tuesday we looked at the top rookie pitchers in the AL, and yesterday we looked at the top hitters in the NL.

J.A. Happ, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies

The 26-year-old Happ has truly made a name for himself this season, so much so that the Toronto Blue Jays insisted that he be included in any deal for former Cy Young winner Roy Halladay. The southpaw is pitching well in the heat of a pennant race with just 99 hits allowed in 121 innings of work. His rates are solid too at 3.05 BB/9 and 6.62 K/9. A word of caution, though, as Happ is being aided by a low BABIP allowed of .256 and he is a fly-ball pitcher. His repertoire includes a fastball that averages out around 90 mph, as well as a cutter, changeup and occasional breaking ball.

Kenshin Kawakami, RHP, Atlanta Braves

Kawakami has arguably been the second most reliable rookie starter in the National League in 2009, although in fairness he’s a 34-year-old Japanese veteran. The right-hander has allowed 112 hits in 118 innings of work, while posting a walk rate of 3.74 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.41 K/9. He’s had a little trouble with the long ball and he gives up his fair share of fly balls. Kawakami averages out at 90 mph on the fastball and his repertoire includes a number of pitches, including a curveball and splitter. The Japanese native pitches better at home (3.28 ERA) than on the road (4.92 ERA). Kawakami has been battling through some minor ailments as of late.

Randy Wells, RHP, Chicago Cubs

Wells has been a godsend for the Cubs in 2009 and the organization almost lost him in 2007/08 when the Toronto Blue Jays organization nabbed him in the Rule 5 draft. After just one MLB appearance, though, the Jays cut Wells loose and Chicago gladly took him back. The converted catcher is 26 years old, but he is big, strong and has a fresh arm. So far this season, Wells has allowed 102 hits in 107.2 innings of work. He has an excellent walk rate at 2.02 BB/9 and a respectable (but low-ish) strikeout rate at 5.68 K/9. Right-handed batters are having a much more difficult time hitting for average against Wells (.228) than left-handers (.288). He’s approaching his career high in innings pitched.

Quick Hits: Jordan Zimmermann (Washington) was on pace to be a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate before blowing out his elbow. Now it looks like the pitcher – who was leading rookie starters in K/9 – will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss all of 2010. Tommy Hanson (Atlanta Braves) has pitched just 73.2 innings so he falls short of qualifying for consideration this week. With a great final month and a half, though, he could vault himself into the race.

Tomorrow, we’ll wrap things up.

This week we’re taking a look at some of the top rookies in Major League Baseball in an attempt to ascertain who is the most deserving candidate for Rookie of the Year in both the American and National Leagues. Today, we’ll take a look at five rookie hitters in the National League who have a solid chance at the Rookie of the Year award. On Monday, we looked at the top rookie hitters in the AL and we looked at the top rookie pitchers in the AL yesterday.

Chris Coghlan, LF/2B, Florida Marlins

Coghlan was originally recalled to help out as a utility player and part-time outfielder right around the time that top prospect Cameron Maybin was demoted to triple-A. The former full-time second baseman (and college third baseman) has turned into a full-time left fielder for the Florida Marlins and he is second in OPS (.786) amongst all National League rookies with 220 or more at-bats. The left-handed hitter is having a nice season after getting off to a slow start when he hit below .200 in May. Overall, Coghlan now has a line of .288/.369/.418 with six homers in 292 at-bats. Oddly, he’s hitting much better outside Florida, with a road average of .329, compared to a home average of .248. Although he’s done a nice job filling in at an unfamiliar position in 2009, Coghlan’s lack of power makes him much more suited to second base, which is the role he could fill in 2010 if the club finally cuts ties with incumbent (and expensive) Dan Uggla.

Dexter Fowler, CF, Colorado Rockies

Fowler has more at-bats (345) than any other rookie in the NL this season. He also leads the youngsters in hits, doubles, runs scored, stolen bases, walks and strikeouts. Overall, the athletic outfielder is hitting .264/.362/.403 with 26 steals in 35 attempts. He has a solid walk rate of 13.8 BB% but his strikeout rate is alarmingly high at 28.1 K%. With his lack of power (.139 ISO), Fowler needs to trim his Ks. A switch-hitter, the 23-year-old Georgia native is hitting .301 versus southpaws but just .248 against right-handers. He has some work to do on his overall game, but Fowler is extremely intelligent and the sky is the limit for this rookie.

Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates organization was extremely cautious with McCutchen, a former first round pick (11th overall) out of a Florida high school in 2005. The right-handed hitter spent parts of three seasons in triple-A before receiving his first taste of MLB action in 2009. He was well-deserving of the promotion after hitting .303/.361/.493 with 10 steals in 49 games. At the MLB level, McCutchen, 22, has hit .293/.359/.488 with seven homers and 12 steals (in 13 attempts) in 246 at-bats. His walk rate is a little low for a top-of-the-order hitter at 8.9 BB% but he has a solid strikeout rate at 18.3 K%. Although his game is mostly built around his speed, McCutchen has shown more power this year (.195 ISO in 2009 vs .115 in 2008) and he has a healthy line-drive rate at 18.5%. Defensively, he plays a solid center field but he is still learning.

Gerardo Parra, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks

Early on in his career, Parra was essentially considered a poor man’s Carlos Gonzalez (who is now in Colorado). Parra, though, is arguably having more success at the MLB level than his former teammate. The Arizona Diamondbacks organization promoted Parra to the Majors much sooner than expected due to a rash of injuries. Although he was expected to fill in for just a short time, the Venezuela native quickly made himself at home. He is currently hitting .290/.328/.427 with five homers, eight triples and five steals in 307 at-bats. The 22-year-old fielder has always hit for a good average, but he’s impatient at the plate (5.5 BB%) and he does not have the power (.137 ISO) necessary to play a corner outfield spot in the Majors on an everyday basis. He has split most of his time in the Majors between left field and center, where he’s been average at best. He does have a strong arm.

Colby Rasmus, CF, St. Louis Cardinals

Rasmus is having a nice, albeit inconsistent, rookie season for the St. Louis Cardinals. The center fielder has shown flashes of the talent that should one day make him an All-Star. However, Rasmus is hitting .248/.306/.412 with 11 homers in 330 at-bats. He has a walk rate of just 7.0 BB% and a respectable strikeout rate of 19.4 K%, but his BABIP is just .278. Rasmus had a nice month of June, but he hit .218/.291/.397 in July and is currently hitting .167/.300/.167 in August. A more patient approach at the plate, as well as a little more luck on batted balls, could really turn his numbers around.

Tomorrow, we’ll take a look at the top rookie pitchers in the National League.

This week we’re taking a look at some of the top rookies in Major League Baseball in an attempt to ascertain who is the most deserving candidate for Rookie of the Year in both the American and National Leagues. Today, we’ll take a look at five starting pitchers (minimum 100 IP) in the American League who have a solid chance at the Rookie of the Year award. Yesterday, we looked at the top rookie hitters in the AL.

Brett Anderson, LHP, Oakland Athletics

For whatever reason, teammate Trevor Cahill seems to get more ink than Anderson, although the latter player is definitely having the more consistent season. A 2006 second round draft pick out of an Oklahoma high school (by Arizona), Anderson spent just two seasons in the minors before making the club out of spring training in 2009. The southpaw has allowed 126 hits in 121.2 innings of work and he’s leading AL rookie pitchers in strikeouts with 98 (7.25 K/9) while maintaining a solid walk rate at 2.59 BB/9. Anderson appears to be maintaining the velocity on his fastball better at the MLB level, than he did in the minors. He’s got a respectable ground-ball rate at 49.1% and he’s limiting the line drives with a rate of 14.3%. Also on the positive side, Anderson’s numbers have improved across the board in July and August so he’s learning and making adjustments.

Brad Bergesen, RHP, Baltimore Orioles

Perhaps the least-heard-about-name on this list, Bergesen just keeps plugging away despite having almost zero hype entering the season. The former fourth round draft pick was taken out of a California high school in 2004 and he honed his skills in the minors for five seasons. Bergesen has almost freaky-good control, having posted a walk rate below 2.00 BB/9 in all but one minor league season prior to 2009 (his first, when he appeared in just five games). The right-hander is a sinker/slider pitcher whose fastball averages around the upper-80s, so he needs that control (and command) to succeed. As he gets around the league a little more, Bergesen may have to break out the changeup (7.9% usage) a little more. His ground-ball rate of 50.1% definitely helps him survive in the AL East. Overall, he’s allowed 126 hits in 123.1 innings of work, while also posting a walk rate of 2.34 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 4.74 K/9.

Jeff Niemann, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays

The 6′9” right-hander took longer to reach the Majors than many thought he would after being taken fourth overall out of Rice University in the 2004 draft. It’s been worth the wait for the 26-year-old pitcher. After a couple of up-and-down months to start the year, Niemann has settled in to become one of the Rays’ most reliable starters. Overall, he has allowed 116 hits in 120.2 innings of work. He has a 2.98 BB/9 rate and a strikeout rate of 5.74 K/9. Niemann, though, has been helped by a low BABIP allowed of .283. He’s also a flyball pitcher who has kept the ball in the park (0.90 HR/9). Niemann doesn’t throw as hard as he did in college – now averaging around 92 mph – but he mixes in four pitches. He handles right-handed and left-handed batters well, with identical batting-averages-allowed at .255.

Rick Porcello, RHP, Detroit Tigers

Not surprisingly, the 20-year-old rookie has wilted a bit under the hot summer sun (8.79 ERA, 21 hits in 14 innings in July). With only one minor league season under his belt, Porcello has performed admirably given his lack of experience. In 20 starts, he’s allowed 118 hits in 111 innings of work, while also posting a solid walk rate of 3.08 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 4.54 K/9. Home runs have been an issue for Porcello (1.38 HR/9) even though he has a ground-ball rate of 56.1%. He’s been aided by a low BABIP allowed of .282. Porcello relies heavily on his sinking fastball that averages out around 91 mph, but he also mixes in a curveball and changeup. The right-hander has a very bright future but he’s fallen back a bit in the Rookie of the Year race.

Ricky Romero, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays

Romero is a perfect example of how patience is often needed when dealing with young players – and pitchers in particular. After being taken with the sixth overall pick of the 2005 draft out of Cal State Fullerton, the southpaw struggled with his command and confidence in the minors. He was constantly compared to Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who was selected one pick after Romero and reached in the Majors in his first full season. Romero finally earned the call to the Majors in his fifth pro season, but he’s still young at the age of 24. The southpaw made some adjustments to his delivery with Toronto’s pitching coach Brad Arnsberg and his command and control have both significantly improved. Overall, Romero has allowed 114 hits in 115.2 innings, while also posting a walk rate of 3.42 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.00 K/9. He’s allowed his fair share of line drives at 20.3%, but he’s done a nice job of offsetting that with ground balls at 52%. Romero has a nice fastball for a lefty and it averages out around 91.6 mph. He also utilizes a curveball, slider, and changeup.

Honorable Mention: Andrew Bailey, RHP, Oakland Athletics

It’s hard for relievers to get taken seriously for the Rookie of the Year award, but Bailey is definitely making a name for himself. The right-hander has racked up 16 saves in 20 attempts for the Athletics. He also has a stunning strikeout rate of 10.29 K/9. His walk rate is 3.14 BB/9. Bailey, 25, has limited batters to 40 hits in 63 innings of work. His success is even more impressive considering that he spent the majority of his minor league career working out of the starting rotation.

Tomorrow, we’ll look at some rookie hitters in the National League.

This week we’re taking a look at some of the top rookies in Major League Baseball in an attempt to ascertain who is the most deserving candidate for Rookie of the Year in both the American and National Leagues. Today, we’ll take a look at four position players in the American League (minimum 200 at-bats).

Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers

Andrus received a lot of hype early on in the season for his solid play, but that has quieted down a bit. The soon-to-be 21-year-old infielder had a slow June and July average-wise and the power he showed in May never reappeared. He hit two homers and had a total of eight extra-base hits that month, but has just six extra base hits since June 1 (157 at-bats). Overall, the youngster has a respectable line of .262/.326/.361 with 20 steals in 22 attempts. With Andrus, though, his defense must also be weighed heavily when discussing his value to the Rangers. He’s made 14 errors, but Andrus gets to balls no other shortstop can dream of reaching and his UZR of 7.8 is third in all of Major League Baseball behind Jack Wilson (Seattle/Pittsburgh) and J.J. Hardy (Milwaukee).

Gordon Beckham, 3B, Chicago White Sox

Beckham has not been in the Majors quite as long as the other three rookies, but he has arguably made the most noise over the past month. After a slow start (that oddly had some writers calling him a bust with a lousy swing), the infielder finished his first month in the Majors with a line of .267/.353/.387 in 75 at-bats. Since then, he’s been one of the club’s best hitters and now has an overall line of .302/.369/.483 with six homers in 205 at-bats. The 22-year-old also has 19 doubles, which is tops amongst rookies in the AL. Beckham also leads in average, on-base percentage, slugging and RBIs. He’s third in homers behind Reimold and teammate Jayson Nix. The former college and minor league shortstop has also been learning his new position on the fly at the hot corner.

Chris Getz, 2B, Chicago White Sox

A former fourth-round pick out of the University of Michigan, Getz just keeps plugging along. The middle infielder isn’t flashy but he’s put together a respectable first season in the Majors with a line of .268/.320/.368 in 310 at-bats. He has 18 steals in 20 attempts. Getz has also scored 43 runs. He doesn’t have much power (.100 ISO) but he has a healthy line drive rate at 19.7%. The 25-year-old has a solid strikeout rate at 13.9 K% but his walk rate is a little low at 6.1 BB%. Getz looks like a solid No. 2 hitter. He leads AL rookies in hits and is tied with Elvis Andrus in runs scored.

Nolan Reimold, LF, Baltimore Orioles

Reimold’s teammate (and the top prospect in baseball entering 2009) Matt Wieters is slowly picking up steam but he has yet to top 200 at-bats in the majors this season. As such, Reimold is currently the favorite amongst Baltimore’s rookies to win the AL Rookie of the Year. Reimold hit a few rough patches in the minors, which temporarily clouded his potential, but he entered pro ball with some hype as a second round draft pick out of Bowling Green University in 2005. The 25-year-old outfielder has a solid line of .272/.365/.444 with 10 homers in 239 at-bats. He also has an encouraging walk rate for a young player at 11.8 BB%, and a solid strikeout rate for a power-hitting prospect at 20.1 K%. Reimold leads rookies in the AL in homers, walks, and is second in RBI as well as OPS.

So, who do you think is most deserving amongst AL rookies for the year-end award? Will Wieters or another rookie hitter climb the charts in the final two months and steal the coveted title of best rookie hitter?

Tomorrow, we’ll look at some rookie pitchers in the American League.

Jed Lowrie made his debut on April 15th for the Red Sox. He started at third base in place of the injured Mike Lowell and went 1-4 with 3 RBIs that tied a 61 year old record for most RBIs in a Red Sox debut. Baseball America listed Lowrie as the 5th top prospect in the Red Sox organization for 2008. Although he started at third base in his debut, he typically plays shortstop, which is where he got his second start.

Alex Serrano debuted on April 16th for the Angels in the top of the 9th inning of a 2-3 game. He allowed 1 hit and struck out 1 in a scoreless inning. In AAA last season, Serrano struck out 46 batters and only walked 10 in 69+ innings of work.

German Duran got the start at third base in his debut for the Rangers on April 17th. He had 3 plate appearances and struck out in all of them. He was called up to fill a roster spot for the injured Marlon Byrd. John Sickels over at Minor League Ball projects Duran will have a long career as a “really good bench guy“.

David Purcey made his first major league start for the Blue Jays and allowed just 2 hits and 1 run in 4.1 innings of work. He also allowed an uncharacteristically high 7 walks. In AA last year, he allowed just 16 walks in 62+ innings of work. The Mockingbird did a full writeup on his Pitchf/x data and uncovered a mid 90’s fastball with good movement.

Jeffrey Niemann was the only player to make his debut yesterday. He picked up the win for the Rays by throwing 6 innings with 5 strikeouts and allowing just a single run. Niemann, the fourth overall pick the 2004 draft, was listed as Baseball America’s 99th best prospect this year. At 6 feet and 9 inches tall, he holds the distinction of being the tallest player in Rays history.

Evan Longoria made his long awaited debut last night by singling in a run, and taking a walk in 4 plate appearances. Hardball Times fantasy writer, Derek Carty, suggest that first year expectations for Longoria should be tempered even though he’s listed as a top 5 prospect on pretty much every single list available. He was called up due to Willy Aybar’s trip to the DL, although for financial reasons the Rays might have wanted to wait a bit longer to roster Longoria.

John Bowker had a monster debut for the Giants. He hit a three-run home run and singled in three plate appearances. Despite the Giants taking a 5-0 lead, much in part to Bowker’s efforts, they lost anyway. Apparently, he had trouble containing his glee even though his team had suffered a tough loss.

Hernan Iribarren pinch hit and singled in his first major league at-bat. He’s a high-average, low power hitter who takes a good amount of walks, leading to a pretty solid OBP. Irabarren was called up to replace the DL bound Tony Gwynn Jr.

Jesse Carlson made his first appearance in relief on April 10th. He entered the game with 2 outs and the bases loaded with his team, the Blue Jays, down 1-3 in the top of the 12th. He got Daric Barton to strike out on three pitches and called it a day. Bluebird Banter recently did a full piece on him covering pretty much everything you’d want to know, including his abrupt release from the Tigers organization nearly 5 years ago.

Burke Heinrich Badenhop got to finish off the Nationals in his big league debut with his team, the Marlins, up 10-4. He pitched a perfect ninth with one strikeout. Badenhop was one of the prospects the Marlins acquired from the Tigers in return for Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera. He was called up to fill in for Rick Vanden Hurk’s demotion to the minors.

Fernando Hernandez pitched the bottom of the 8th inning for the A’s and picked up his first win as a reliever in his debut. He allowed no runs with 2 walks and a strikeout in the one inning he pitched. He was an A’s Rule 5 Draft pick from the White Sox, after having pitched quite well in AA last year. He had 84/23 K/BB ratio and allowed just 4 home runs in 85-plus innings of work.

Gregory Smith also made his debut for the A’s as the starting pitcher. He threw 6 innings of two hit ball, while striking out 5 and also walking 5. He had pretty solid control in the minors, so perhaps his nerves got the better of him. Smith, who was acquired by the A’s in the Dan Haren trade, got the call when Justin Duchscherer was placed on the disabled list.