Chamberlain’s Stuff as a Starter
Yesterday, while doing a question-and-answer session with WFAN, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman was asked about Joba Chamberlain‘s role with the Yankees. Chamberlain has bounced back and forth between the pen and rotation several times, but spent all last year in the pen. Now with the Rafael Soriano signing and questionable back-of-the-rotation options (which Paul Swydan outlined earlier) many have wondered whether Chamberalin would start next year.
But Cashman said the Yankees view him solely as a reliever. “I don’t think his stuff is the same since he hurt himself in Texas [August 4th 2008] … The stuff plays up better in the pen.” Cashman continued, “His stuff doesn’t play out of the rotation anymore like it did before prior to his shoulder.”
In 2008, Chamberlain started 12 games (65.1 innings), but then injured his shoulder and spent the rest of the season coming out of the pen. In 2009, the Yankees moved him back to the rotation and he started 32 games (157.1 innings). Comparing just time as a starter there is a stark difference between the two years: 10.2 K/9 in 2008 versus 7.6 in 2009, 3.4 BB/9 versus 4.3, 48% ground-ball percentage compared to 43% and, overall, a 3.42 xFIP versus 4.56.
And, as Cashman noted, the stuff is worse. His fastball lost 2.5 mph, again just comparing time as a starter in 2008 to 2009, and went from 6% swinging strikes per pitch to just 3%. And his slider dropped from 25% to 20% swinging strikes per pitch. Obviously 65 innings is a small sample, so some of the difference might have just been luck in 2008, but still it seems clear he was a different starter in 2009.
But his stuff is also worse out of the pen, comparing pre- and post-injury. His fastball is 2 mph slower and gets slightly fewer swinging strikes (5% versus 6%), and his slider also gets fewer swinging strikes (22% versus 32%). So the loss of stuff is across the board, not just when Chamberalin starts. And plus it is not hard to see Chamberlain more valuable to the Yankees as a back-of-the-rotation starter than a middle-innings reliever (Mariano Rivera, Soriano and David Robertson will be ahead of him on the depth chart). This might be particularly true if he had some more time to develop his change up.
But it looks like the Yankees are wedded to him as a reliever. And I guess I trust Cashman and the Yankees here. They have more information than we do on Chamberlain’s health, temperament and stuff, and how those play as a reliever versus as a starter.
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Thank you for tackling a subject that never seems to get its fair share of coverage.
Kidding, this was actually a very reasonable and fair assessment of the situation, which many people seem unable to discuss with anything less than raw emotion.
actually, considering the bullpen depth, i’d like to see chamberlain try starting in the minors to see what kind of stuff he has, etc. then, if his stuff does translate well, then he can start at the ML level. this way, if he falls apart when starting, it won’t hurt the club. it also allows him to stretch out to a starter’s endurance in the minors instead of killing the bullpen with 3 inning, or 5 inning starts to stretch out. and if he can’t start, then he can always come back to relieve in the MLB as a bullpen depth move. either that… or trade him?
Pretty sure Joba would need to pass through waivers to go to the minors at this point. I don’t see him getting through waivers.
I would think he has options remaining. He hasn’t been in the Majors that long.
Part of the problem is that Chamberlain’s trade value is at an all time low right now. And, while the honesty is appreciated, Cashman did not do much to improve that trade value by admitting to the public that the shoulder injury has had a long-term effect on Chamberlain’s stuff. I believe he should get another chance as a starter, but I’m more concerned about him being able to develop three top-notch pitches than the fact that he “only” tops out at 93-94 mph with his fastball anymore.
If the Yanks try and stretch him out and something goes wrong…will any other club seriously think they could try again and make it work?
All stats and metrics aside, Joba is done with the Yanks. Right now, they should just be looking at the easiest way to build up his value and putting him in the bullpen behind Mo and Soriano is probably the best way to do it.
What else can you tell me about the future with such certainty? I’ll take stock tips, the score of the superbowl, or lottery numbers.
I’d love to see what a Dave Duncan could do with a Joba.
There is not surgery to fix this?
Do a search on guy who have had shoulder surgery. The success rate is low. (Mark Prior, Rob Nen, Jason Schmidt to name three). Of course, Chris Carpenter did ok following his shoulder surgery.
This is where stats can have a ton of value. It’s very easy to come up with hypotheses and then have observation validate the predicted outcome. Observations can be correct despite the explanation being wrong. And by confirming the observation, we can fool ourselves in to thinking that our explanation must be right. But that doesn’t make it so.
Sure, Joba’s stuff doesn’t play out of the rotation like it did pre-injury. But it doesn’t play out of the pen like it did pre-injury either. Joba is simply a lesser pitcher now. The relationship between starting and relieving has not changed. Like all candidates for the rotation, Joba is more effective in relief. That does not make him a lesser candidate for the rotation than his performance would otherwise suggest.
Unless Joba would be displacing a better starter in the rotation, the Yankees do not gain anything by using him out of the pen.
He could displace Sergio Mitre. That would be an improvement.
There is also a long term issue here. If his stuff ever comes back to pre-surgery levels, where should he be? I thiink unless he becomes an elite closer, he’d generally have more value as a starter since I think quality relief pitching is usually easier to find than quality starting.
I agree with Phoenix that a minor league stint where they focus on him becoming a starter again would be the best course here. He’s still just 26. I’d like to seem them just commit 2-3 years on him being a starter and if that fails, only then turn him into a reliever which is a similar course to many pitchers including success stories like Joe Nathan.
Joba is out of options. They would have to claim a phantom injury, à la Chien-Ming Wang, 2009.
Joba is not out of options infact he has all 3. Any player who is optioned passes through optional waivers which are revocable and no one ever claims anyone off of them (because then top prospects would get claimed all the time). Please read the CBA and MLB rulebooks and you will find no such rule that precludes the Yankees from sending Joba to the minor leagues.
You burn an option year for every year you spend on the 40 man with 20+ days of minor league service time. Joba came up to the majors, was added to the 40, and then never went down. He has at the very least 2 of his options remaining. At 5 years of service time he can refuse assignment to the minors.
You overlook something very important. Joba hurt himself as a starter, not as a reliever.
Joba’s delivery, specifically the repeatability thereof, was always a major concern, even prior to the Yankees’ drafting him.
It could be an issue that Joba can repeat his delivery for 20-30 pitches at a time, but becomes shaky after that.
If Joba comes into a game as a reliever and the mechanics just aren’t there, you can pull him out of the game almost immediately. If Joba is starting a game and loses his delivery in the second inning, you run the risk of having a game blown wide open. Worse, you run the risk of that flawed delivery producing a severe injury.
Joba came out of the game right after he threw himself to the ground to duck a throw from Ivan Rodriguez toward second base (a base-stealer). Joba claimed it had nothing to do with that, but it’s not clear he wasn’t just trying to protect his teammate.
IMO, he was a reliever forced into a starter’s role. Nothing about the guy suggests “Starter” to me. He throws hard every pitch. He throws major heat. Everything about him is essentially “intense” and “fast twitch”.
At this point, he’ll be just another guy that an “organization ruined through improper use” rather than acknowledging that maybe he was just never as good as we thought he was.
I think the fans and media jumped all over this kid way too fast and too often and thought he was the next Kerry Wood, just because he would pitch an amazing 1.2 INN out of a 5 INN start, where he’d blow away 5 consecutive hitters, and we’d all ignore the walks and high pitch counts … thinking that he’d drastically become more efficient and improve command, while increasing endurance and maintaining high K-rates (as if any pitcher ever does that).
Joba is just another reminder for us as a baseball community to “Chill the %&*# out” (aka, CTFO) every time a young impressive player burst on the scene.
The thing that was entirely out of whack were our expectations.
I see what you’re saying. I believe that the key mistake was taking Joba out of his routine as a starter – Joba had been a starter from his high school days through college up until mid-2007, his first year in professional ball – and rushing him from Double A to the majors.
I don’t think Joba – or Hughes or Kennedy – were ready for the majors, mentally or physically. I believe they all needed another season in the minors in a controlled environment where they could hone their craft without all the distractions, the mental and physical stresses, of playing in the majors in New York City in the middle of a pennant race.
If you watched Joba start pre-injury he did have a starters arsenal. He was able to maintain a high velocity thru-out his starts, if I remember correctly he was actually throwing harder in the later innings than the beginning of his starts. Along with his excellent slider and decent enough curve he IMO had better stuff than a lot of starters. Of course the media over-hyped him, but in 08 he wasn’t the high walk/pitch count pitcher he was towards the end of 09. As it shows in the article he kept the walks down to a reasonable rate. Honestly I think he still could be a starter with his current arsenal if he had time to grow into the spot and learn how to start at the major league level, theres plenty of pitchers who get by on much worse stuff. Not that I have any say in it.
Joba injured himself ducking a throw from Ivan Rodriquez. When he feel to the ground, he his right arm absorbed the blow, and he started having issues the very next AB. That’s just bad luck, and has nothing to do with him being a starter, or him being put in the pen.
Unfortunately, injuries happen to young pitchers (and even older ones) reguarly.
Who knows. A couple years removed, he might regain most of the lost velocity back. I’m sure if the Yankees see him approaching triple digits again out of the pen, they will reassess their stance on him…one would hope.
I give you the following examples – Ryan, Lynn Nolan Jr.. Johnson, Randall David. Gibson, Pack Robert. Seaver, George Thomas. Clemens, William Roger.
All guys who threw nothing but smoke and sick, hard breaking stuff. All guys who had long, successful careers as starting pitchers.
C’mon guys. There’s a difference between throwing hard and throwing “balls-out”. There’s a difference between being focused and being extremely intense.
It is physically and mentally impossible to do something [1] at the most intense level, and [2] for a long time.
Anyone claiming to “sprint a marathon” is full of crap. Frequency, volume, and intensity exist in inverse relationships. You guys are basically telling me that there are “marathoners” that “run like sprinters” for the full 26.2 miles. I’ll let you deal with that.
In no shape or form did I say “hard throwers or focused guys cannot be starting pitchers.”
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I’ve watched Carlos Zambrano. Don’t confuse “intense” with “hot tempered”. When I refer to intensity I am talking about a level of concentration, not an emotional state. Throwing a temper tantrum would not be confused with be highly highly focused (intense) on the mound.
IMO, Joba has both the mental and physical makeup much more conducive to relieving rather than starting. He has enough talent to do either. When I have seen him pitch, he’s “all out” and it leads to a lot of pitches in short duration. It also leads to his emotions controlling him instead of the other way around. Those attributes are perfectly acceptable as a reliever. As a starter, one needs to be more able to “sustain focus” and “pace effort”.
Starters aren’t “intense”? Or “fast twitch”? Is that an actual fact, or just something you made up?
Ever watched Carlos Zambrano??
…be so bad he got busted to the pen?
Right, I forgot … Z going to the pen negates the entire rest of his body of work.
a 4.56 xFIP isn’t all that bad for a #5 starter. Take a look at the 5th starters around the league. How many of them have a 4.56 xFIP? What was the xFIP for the Yankees’ 5th starters last year?
The guy had a 2.98 FIP last year – lets not forget that. I’d take that at the back end of my rotation. I would take a 3.98 FIP at the back of my rotation.
wow we just had very similar thoughts there at approximately the exact same time…
Are the Yankees better off trying to use Joba as a middle reliever or as a starter over the next three years (until FA)?
If we assume that he’s a reliever, then using 2010 as a proxy, you get 1.4 WAR per year over 3 years. However, let’s say that he has a chance of blowing out his arm over the three years so we’ll reduce this the WAR by 1/4 to approximate this. So for the next three years, he’d produce 3.2 WAR.
If Joba’s a 4.56 xFIP as a starter and can pitch 200 innings, that’s about 2.3 WAR per season. However, his arm probably can’t handle the strain as much, so maybe he only pitches 1.5 seasons worth of baseball. So as a starter, he’d be worth 3.5 WAR.
If the Yankees didn’t care about keeping Joba over the long haul, they might be better off riding him until his arm falls off, then putting him on waivers. Who knows, maybe Joba can surprise us.
That’s a simple question. Just due to the higher number of innings as a starter he will accumulate more WAR.
As a reliever, he might accumulate more WPA.
Which one does NYY need more?