Comments on: Change Is Good

By: Jeff

Jeff — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 18:32:41 +0000

I’d be interested to see what Dave says the correlation between CH% and WPA is. I’m definitely not a stats expert like many others posting, but I ran it and got a 13.4% correlation (the highest of any pitch).

On the other hand, the highest correlations of any of the pitching stats shown was Fastball Velocity (31.8%) and Curveball Velocity (29.7%) and then the difference between FB and CV velocity (22.1%).

This is a set of numbers that may not be telling us anything (or I may have run the calc incorrectly). But, if accurate, it makes me think in a different direction.

By: Alex

Alex — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 15:34:55 +0000

How is that a mixed bag? You have one of the greatest pitchers of all time in Greg Maddux, the best pitcher in baseball in CC, a solid mid rotation starter in Saunders, and two guys that have had continued success over a long period of time in Moyer and Rogers.

Sure, the curveball list is also very good, but look at the top 2 guys Sheets and AJ, both very injury prone, partially because they throw a lot of curves.

By: Darren

Darren — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 01:58:49 +0000

David–

I’ve given you some crap over the years for the Papelbon/Nagoette comparison, but I just wanted to pop into one of your many great blog posts here and say you’re doing a hell of a job here. Your columns are well reasoned, well written, and often turn up some new, fascinating take on the game. Kudos.

By: Ryan

Ryan — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 21:12:16 +0000

They are percentages, though.

By: Tim

Tim — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 20:34:31 +0000

Ineptitude does not equal undervalueing. Any GM at the time would have made a similar trade to the Kazmir for Zambrano trade

By: fifth of

fifth of — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 20:31:31 +0000

I’d like to know what % of Eric Gagne’s 2002-2004 pitches were change-ups.

By: Tim

Tim — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 20:31:23 +0000

The point of this article was that the ability throw a quality change-up was undervalued

By: Tim

Tim — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 20:29:46 +0000

Here is the real thing to consider… Regardless of type of pitch, the best pitchers are going to throw the most of any pitch… because they pitch more. The best pitchers have the most playing time, which means they throw more pitches.

Since they throw more pitches than the bad pitchers, the Best pitchers are going to lead the league in whatever types of pitch they throw

By: mojowo11

mojowo11 — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 17:13:04 +0000

Why isn’t Harden on this list? He threw 28.8% changeups last year, maybe more like 33% if his “splitters” are actually changeups (I recall him saying at some point that he doesn’t throw a split, but that people have been thinking his changeup was a splitter for his whole career).

By: Matt B.

Matt B. — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 16:18:16 +0000

Pedro’s change-up was a strikeout pitch, not just a change of pace. It had nasty fade and drop that made hitters look ridiculous.