Checking In With Aramis
In looking at the league leaders this morning I found something pretty interesting: Of all players with a WPA of at least 1.84—excluding Matt Holliday who has been injured for a while—Aramis Ramirez is the only one with a home run total under fourteen. While Aramis has hit nine long balls everyone else contributing this much has hit their fair share more. It isn’t as if he ranks towards the bottom of this 1.84 minimum, either, as his 2.29 WPA currently ranks 7th amongst all hitters; and, yes, “their fare share” is in fact a triple-rhyme.
Through 62 games, this slugger is posting a .302/.417/.507 slash line, with 9 HR, 19 2B, and 43 RBI. If his OBP looks oddly high it is likely due to the fact that he has never finished a season higher than .373 in that department and his career mark comes in at .340.
Since he has posted batting averages over .300 in the past it would make sense that he is walking more this year. Confirming this theory is his 14.4% walk rate; one much higher than the 5.3-8.2% range he posted from 2002-2007. In fact, his career high is 9.7%. One of the main reasons his rate of walks has jumped is his drastic drop in swings at pitches out of the zone. Last year, he swung at 30.76% of pitches out of the zone whereas this year, just 23.54%.
He’s striking our more this year as well, with a 16.9 K% compared to 13% a year ago. A leading contributor to his increased strikeouts is a somewhat drastic drop in contact. Last year, he made contact 84.85% of the time; this year, just 78.47% of the time.
His overall production has not suffered much from the drop in contact but he does currently have a .331 BABIP. With regards to his balls in play, he is hitting 3% less grounders, replacing them with line drives. Additionally, though his flyball rate has stayed stagnant, his HR/FB has dropped from 13.3% to 10.8%.
It seems that Ramirez is making less contact but more of the balls he puts in play are falling in for hits. His “lack” of power this season should be attributed more to his decrease in home runs per flyball. If he has actually lost some power than his OPS will not remain .924 all season as it is not very likely to sustain a BB% that much higher than the range he has proven himself capable of; along similar lines, if his past performance is any indication he will still hit anywhere from 26-35 home runs by seasons end. Should these two stats reverse his OPS would remain in the general range. Now, BB% and K% are pretty quick to stabilize but this is a pretty drastic jump.
This just goes to show that a guy can be an extremely effective offensive contributor without hitting dingers each and every night.
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I don’t remember where I was reading it, but I thought bb% and k% stabilize the fastest out of all statistics. Whether 2+ months of baseball is enough for these to stabilize will dictate if Ramirez has actually changed his approach leading to more walks (and more strikeouts).
It’s been a cold April/May, too. I’d guess HR/FB is lower in Apr/May than Jun-Sep, esp at Wrigley. Can anyone check that?
Aramis looks WAY thinner this year too.
It’s been a cold April/May, too. I’d guess HR/FB is lower in Apr/May than Jun-Sep, esp at Wrigley. Can anyone check that?
Aramis looks WAY thinner this year too. Not suggesting anything. I’ve heard several times at games this year: “Is that Aramis at third?”
Scappy, you probably read Pizza Cutter’s (my colleague at StatSpeak) article about statistics stabilizing, which is true that BB% and K% stabilize somewhat quickly; 150 PA if I remember correctly.
This isn’t to say they can’t or won’t regress, but I’d rather give it more stability before saying he’s made a drastic change in approach. Definitely a possibility, though.
Last week I remember an article about Aaron Rowand showing increased production despite a higher K-rate. There was some anecdotal evidence to suggest that Rowand’s change in approach was on account of being in a thinner lineup and an expectation to be a primary run producer. With Aramis, it seems to be the opposite. He’s hitting with more base-runners and with 2 additional strong bats behind him (Fukudome and Soto). Yet, both Rowand’s and Ramirez’s approaches seem to be trending in the same direction. Interesting, no?
Also of note, Aramis is on pace to ground into 30% fewer double-plays this year, despite the increase in baserunners ahead of him. Again, is this merely the product of good luck, or the successful execution of a new approach?