Comments on: CHONE Projected Standings http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/chone-projected-standings/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 12 Feb 2012 23:34:21 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Collin http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/chone-projected-standings/#comment-63927 Collin Wed, 25 Feb 2009 23:47:04 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=3253#comment-63927 The worst team in the AL East is better than the best team in the NL West and practically the entire NL Central, according to these rankings. Unquestionably the best baseball division in recent memory. The worst team in the AL East is better than the best team in the NL West and practically the entire NL Central, according to these rankings. Unquestionably the best baseball division in recent memory.

]]> By: Matt H. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/chone-projected-standings/#comment-63914 Matt H. Wed, 25 Feb 2009 21:17:16 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=3253#comment-63914 I like this one for my own personal reasons because PECOTA has the Marlins behind the Nationals I like this one for my own personal reasons because PECOTA has the Marlins behind the Nationals

]]> By: DavidCEisen http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/chone-projected-standings/#comment-63911 DavidCEisen Wed, 25 Feb 2009 20:23:14 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=3253#comment-63911 The Tigers are the 5th best team? Really? 2008 Record: 74-88 2008 Pythagorean Record: 78-84 The Tigers are the 5th best team? Really?
2008 Record: 74-88
2008 Pythagorean Record: 78-84

]]> By: Christian http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/chone-projected-standings/#comment-63909 Christian Wed, 25 Feb 2009 20:11:13 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=3253#comment-63909 The Giants are pretty low. I don't expect them to win, but behind the Padres? The Giants are pretty low. I don’t expect them to win, but behind the Padres?

]]> By: Mike Podhorzer http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/chone-projected-standings/#comment-63908 Mike Podhorzer Wed, 25 Feb 2009 20:01:41 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=3253#comment-63908 If Sean pops into this thread, which I assume he will, then: Would you be able to add the Runs Scored and Runs Allowed projections for each team as well? Gracias! If Sean pops into this thread, which I assume he will, then: Would you be able to add the Runs Scored and Runs Allowed projections for each team as well? Gracias!

]]> By: TangoTiger http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/chone-projected-standings/#comment-63904 TangoTiger Wed, 25 Feb 2009 19:30:11 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=3253#comment-63904 Here's how they did last year: http://vegaswatch.net/2008/09/evaluating-april-mlb-predictions-update.html PECOTA, MGL, and Chone are all pretty much neck-and-neck. MGL beat PECOTA in 05 and 06, and lost to PECOTA in 07, 08: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/saberists_predict_better_than_insiders/#19 *** As for BPro's claims: they are about to be tested: http://tangotiger.net/forecast/ Clay Davenport will be supplying me the BPro forecasts for the project. Here’s how they did last year:
http://vegaswatch.net/2008/09/evaluating-april-mlb-predictions-update.html

PECOTA, MGL, and Chone are all pretty much neck-and-neck.

MGL beat PECOTA in 05 and 06, and lost to PECOTA in 07, 08:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/saberists_predict_better_than_insiders/#19

***

As for BPro’s claims: they are about to be tested:
http://tangotiger.net/forecast/

Clay Davenport will be supplying me the BPro forecasts for the project.

]]> By: AA http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/chone-projected-standings/#comment-63903 AA Wed, 25 Feb 2009 19:26:13 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=3253#comment-63903 That's because they ARE the best 3 teams in baseball. It's sad that the 3rd best team in the game won't even make the playoffs this year. That’s because they ARE the best 3 teams in baseball. It’s sad that the 3rd best team in the game won’t even make the playoffs this year.

]]> By: Fresh Hops http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/chone-projected-standings/#comment-63901 Fresh Hops Wed, 25 Feb 2009 18:52:08 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=3253#comment-63901 Before you conclude that they weren't very reliable, you should take a look at how human "experts" and other computer models did. PECOTA was off by an average of 8.5 wins in 2008, I think. Terrible right? In the contest I saw, which was between a bunch of "experts" and PECOTA, PECOTA beat every single one of them, and all the experts were off by more than ten wins. That's a completely different system, I know, but it serves to make a point that predicting baseball is very hard to do and so what looks like huge error may actually be the most successful prediction out there. Before you conclude that they weren’t very reliable, you should take a look at how human “experts” and other computer models did. PECOTA was off by an average of 8.5 wins in 2008, I think. Terrible right? In the contest I saw, which was between a bunch of “experts” and PECOTA, PECOTA beat every single one of them, and all the experts were off by more than ten wins. That’s a completely different system, I know, but it serves to make a point that predicting baseball is very hard to do and so what looks like huge error may actually be the most successful prediction out there.

]]> By: Fresh Hops http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/chone-projected-standings/#comment-63900 Fresh Hops Wed, 25 Feb 2009 18:40:25 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=3253#comment-63900 BP is also a bunch of people that really care about baseball. It's not an infomercial and it's unfair to treat the people at BP like they don't really believe in their product. BP is also a bunch of people that really care about baseball. It’s not an infomercial and it’s unfair to treat the people at BP like they don’t really believe in their product.

]]> By: LarryinLA http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/chone-projected-standings/#comment-63899 LarryinLA Wed, 25 Feb 2009 18:38:43 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=3253#comment-63899 Mike, your point is right, but your math is off. Your math assumes those precentages are uncorrelated. They're not, I would guess that the chances of the A's and Angels winning 90 games are somewhat anti-correlated. So, I expect the real chance is between your number and Dave's. Mike, your point is right, but your math is off. Your math assumes those precentages are uncorrelated. They’re not, I would guess that the chances of the A’s and Angels winning 90 games are somewhat anti-correlated. So, I expect the real chance is between your number and Dave’s.

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