Comments on: Chris Coghlan and Brett Carroll

By: Michael

Michael — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 22:45:59 +0000

nny, I’ve got that outfield defense projected at +17.5 over the course of 150 defensive games. The offense, on the other hand, we won’t talk about.

By: Michael

Michael — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 22:45:08 +0000

GREAT trade candidate, undoubtedly, and that’s why it’s likely to see Coghlan back in the infield next season. I ran a projection based on his Total Zone numbers in the minors at second, using Rally’s adjustments for Total Zone, and got a -5 projection. That isn’t bad, especially given the offensive production. He isn’t likely to ISO much, and if his walk rate sticks at the 10-11% it was at earlier in the season, it would be very solid at second base.

Hopefully, the Marlins trade Uggla for something good.

By: Michael

Michael — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 22:41:54 +0000

Defensive games are based on average number of chances for a player at that position. It’s possible for Coghlan to build up that many DG without playing that many games.

By: kalarson

kalarson — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 20:24:32 +0000

I think there’s an error on Coghlan’s player page… it says he had 163 defensive games and 123 games played overall.

By: Nny

Nny — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 19:40:29 +0000

Carroll also had a Total Zone /150 of +18 as a corner OF in the minors. And that doesn’t include his arm, which is seriously one of the best in the league. He’s certainly unlikely to continue to be a +30 OF that he has been so far in the majors, but he should at least be +15 and I’d assume +20.

However, it seems unlikely he’ll be a starter. He’s never been hyped up by Flemming and brass, and he’s only been used as a 4th OF/defensive replacement/LHP platoon bat so far even though there’s been opportunities for him to start (The one chance he got, in ’07 when Cody Ross was injured, lasted 10 games). And with Hermida likely being gone, and the only LHB platoon OF bat in the upper system is Scott Cousins (Petersen and Coghlan, the other LHB options, hit both hands), the platoon option likely vanishes.

Imagine if the Marlins ran out an OF of Cody Ross/Cameron Maybin/Brett Carroll next season though. With all the emphasis made in the media about “defense defense defense”, it’s hilarious that the Marlins continue to run out a sub-par defensive squad while good defensive players get wasted away.

And also rather meh news: Reports are that several people in the office prefer Coghlan in OF rather than moving him back to second. Making it look like another year of Emilolio Bonifacio.

By: Nny

Nny — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 19:25:52 +0000

As for his lack of running, a lot of that likely had to do with Fredi Gonzalez not giving him a green light.

By: Jack Moore

Jack Moore — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 17:49:28 +0000

Of course you are correct. Fixed.

Also I think Uggla is a great trade candidate, yes.

By: DavidCEisen

DavidCEisen — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 17:06:39 +0000

Well Uggla isn’t exactly Roberto Alomar with the glove, so maybe he will get shifted to a corner position?

By: joser

joser — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 16:27:46 +0000

Still, simply moving from 2B to LF adds a full win to his defensive value,

I think you meant to write that with those positions reversed. Also, I admit I don't follow the Marlins much at all, but don't they still have Dan Uggla under control for a couple of years? Plus enough other infielders already (Cantu, Bonifacio). If Coghlan moves to 2B, what happens to Uggla? Trade?

By: LeeTro

LeeTro — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 15:36:10 +0000

Adjusting Coghlan’s BABIP to his minor league level, I got splits of .286/.365/.416. I agree this is a much more acceptable line out of an average-defensive 2B, instead of a below-average defensive LF. Another interesting thing about Coghlan is the lack of willingness to run, though only being 8 for 13 may have had something to do with that.

I’m not so optimistic on Carroll, however. His only good hitting line (besides 30 good games in AA Carolina) in the minors was at Albuquerque, which is at the same elevation as Denver. Average plate discipline with no sustained ability to hit for average does not result in a productive corner OF.