Cincy Bats Fuel Playoff Push
The Cincinnati Reds pummeled the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley yesterday afternoon, bopping seven home runs while taking the game fourteen to three. Aside from Brandon Phillips and Jonny Gomes, the Reds’ hitters going deep weren’t the usual suspects. Drew Stubbs trotted around the bases three times. Paul Janish knocked one out, having been thrown into the game following Joey Votto‘s first inning ejection. Backup backstop Corky Miller, called into action after Ramon Hernandez came out with a sore knee, used the power of the Fu Manchu to crank one out of the park.
The victory brings Cincinnati’s record to 47-36, 1.5 games ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central. CoolStandings.com gives Cincy nearly a two-thirds chance of making the playoffs. How have the Reds managed to stave off the Red Birds to this point? The club’s defense has been decent, ranking sixth in the NL in Ultimate Zone Rating. Cincy’s starting pitchers place ahead of only the Diamondbacks and Pirates in terms of xFIP, while the bullpen places seventh in xFIP and 12th in Win Probability Added. The Reds’ success isn’t fueled by pitching and defense. Rather, it’s the bats that are keeping the team in the playoff hunt.
Collectively, the Reds have an NL-best .347 wOBA. Granted, Great American Ballpark is a strong hitter’s venue. But even accounting for that, Cincinnati trails just the Milwaukee Brewers in Park Adjusted Batting Runs — Reds batters have been +43.2 runs above average, compared to +46.3 for the Brew Crew.
While Orlando Cabrera (71 wRC+) is making oodles of outs near the top of the lineup, the Reds feature league average or better offensive production at every other position on the field. Ramon Hernandez has a 109 wRC+. Joey Votto is raking to the tune of a 163 wRC+, and Brandon Phillips has a 127 wRC+. Scott Rolen (146 wRC+) has cast aside shoulder problems and is showing power not seen in over half a decade. In the outfield, Drew Stubbs rates as exactly average (100 wRC+), while Jonny Gomes (115 wRC+) and Jay Bruce (118 wRC+) come in well above that mark.
The question now becomes, can the Reds keep crushing the ball? Here are the current wOBA totals for Cincy’s hitters, as well as their rest-of-season ZiPS projections:
Those rest-of-season forecasts suggest it’s going to be hard to the Reds to keep putting crooked numbers on the scoreboard so frequently — seven out of the eight current starters are predicted to show decline at the dish. CHONE’s R.O.S. projections also show a downturn for most Cincinnati hitters, though the system is more bullish on Bruce’s bat:
Perhaps the rotation will get a shot in the arm with the return of Edinson Volquez and the ‘pen will get the power fastball of Aroldis Chapman, but it’s likely that the lineup won’t be as prolific in the second half.
14
It should be noted that the Reds’ recent onslaught of offense was in Wrigley and not GABP. GABP may inflate power numbers a bit, but it’s not an advantage for success, especially with Cincy’s current line-up.
Still, this team has been playing well above their heads offensively. However, I tend to believe that their pitching has been under-performing thus far. The bullpen has really faltered compared to last season, and I expect some regression back to better numbers in the second half. And as you mentioned, Volquez should enhance the rotation soon, and Homer Bailey could come back to really help the rotation. I also look for some slight improvement from Cueto and Harang.
Furthermore, I think the defense is better than UZR indicates. Current numbers for Stubbs grossly underestimate his defensive prowess, and I don’t think enough credit is given to Bruce or Votto. The right side of the field is air-tight, and when Hanigan returns, the catching position will greatly improve. SS and LF are the only holes on defense, and if Dusty Baker had any sense whatsoever, he’d use Janish and Heisey as late inning replacements more often. I’d take the Cincy defense over any other team in the NL Central.
In summary, I agree that the offense isn’t sustainable, but I don’t think the poor pitching performance thus far will continue either. Hopefully, improvments in pitching will make up for the eventual drop-off in offense. I’m more confident in this team’s chances than any other Reds’ team over the last decade.
I think you’ve nailed the general sentiments among Reds fans, Dan. Yes the offense is playing over it’s head (though perhaps not by as much as you’d think), but the pitching and defense have underperformed.
It’s completely fair to expect the offense to regress in the second half (those changes suggest something along the lines of 30 runs worth of regression). But, especially with the additions expected in the coming weeks, the run prevention should regress positively as a counterbalance.
Consider that Cincy has been the supposed dark horse for 3 or 4 years running, it’s easy to be skeptical, to think this team is crying wolf. But upon close inspection, it holds up pretty darn well. Barring major injury, the NL central looks to be a dog fight to the finish. And if the Pirates/Cubs/Brewers/Astros start to sell off at some point, the Cards and Reds could be the major beneficiaries of a large, but weak division leading to an increased shot at the wild card for the team who comes in 2nd.
Justin Inaz, the most saber-oriented Reds blogger I know, has argued that GABP is not as big of an offense booster as its reputation says. I don’t know his reasons, but he seems to think that while the park is homer friendly, it’s not all that friendly to run scoring, perhaps owing to some issues with depressing OBP. I’m not sure about the details.
ParkFactors.com has GABP at a 3 eyar run factor of 105 (5% more runs than average) despite a 125 HR factor. The run factor is less than Fenway, Camden Yards, The Cell, The Ballpark in Texas, Chase Field, Coors Field and Wrigley and the same as Landshark and Comerica.
The logic is pretty simple. While the ball flies out of GABP, it’s modest dimensions result in fewer doubles and triples. Because there are more doubles + triples than homers, this means fewer hits overall and a lower AVG/OBP.
As a Cardinals fan, that’s my concern … That while the O will decrease a bit, the pitching will get better to offset. The longer CIN stays in 1st, the harder it will be to catch them. Not only is the last part a scenario of numbers (fewer games to gain ground), but also the Reds confidence levels.
The Cards O should get better, as should the P when injured players return. My concern is Carpenter’s health. Last year he was injured early and dominant in the last 2/3′s of the season. An injury now could be too late in the season. Wainwright continues to he a star, but he can only do so much (He may lead the league in W again and still finish 3rd or worse in Cy voting … And perhaps deservedly so).
Regardless, this is going to be a fun second half. I like the Reds as a team. The “Little Red Machine” should compete for the next few years. It’s good for the Central to have a few good teams.
…but how will they do when Adam Dunn mysteriously reappears in their lineup right around August 1?
The big secret to the Reds’ success is playing in an unimaginably awful division. The actual .457 Win Pct. is ugly enough, but that would be .427 if it weren’t for all the interdivisional games. (The same effect reduces the AL East from .548 to .522).
After properly adjusting for SOS, they’d be 2.5 out in the AL Central, 4.5 in the NL East, 5.5 in the NL West, 6 in the AL West, and 9 in the AL East. It is, in fact, hard to argue that they’ve been one of the 15 best teams in MLB.
Is that why people don’t like stat people? Because they argue that teams stink when all they do is win games they play.
Dammit, Reds, Win the games against NY, Boston, and TB that you don’t have on your schedule!
Some genuinely marvellous work on behalf of the owner of this web site, dead outstanding subject material.