Comments on: Cliff Jumping http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cliff-jumping/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 12 Feb 2012 13:18:50 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Tom Au http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cliff-jumping/#comment-32806 Tom Au Mon, 21 Apr 2008 19:24:02 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cliff-jumping/#comment-32806 The Indians have a deep enough rotation that sometimes the tail-enders can come to the rescue. In last year's American League Championship Series, it was the tail-enders, Westbrook and Byrd among the starters, that gave them their shot at the pennant, before the ultimate 4-3 loss to the Boston Red Sox. As for Lee, he's getting off to a vastly better start in 2008 than in 2007. I calculate a sabermetric ERA for him of 3.00+(13*0+3*3-2*20)/22.67, or 1.50 (based on 0 HRs, 2BBs, and 20Ks in 22 2/3 IP) so far in 2008, versus 5.02 (based on 17 HRs, 36 BBs, and 66 Ks in 97 1/3 IP) for all of 2007. These hypotheticals compare to his actual ERAs of 6.29 last year and 0.40 so far this year. Without regard to the (relatively) minor variations in strike outs, "forgetting" to walk people (or issue home runs) are huge factors in the above, or most other, predictors of ERA. The Indians have a deep enough rotation that sometimes the tail-enders can come to the rescue. In last year’s American League Championship Series, it was the tail-enders, Westbrook and Byrd among the starters, that gave them their shot at the pennant, before the ultimate 4-3 loss to the Boston Red Sox.

As for Lee, he’s getting off to a vastly better start in 2008 than in 2007. I calculate a sabermetric ERA for him of 3.00+(13*0+3*3-2*20)/22.67, or 1.50 (based on 0 HRs, 2BBs, and 20Ks in 22 2/3 IP) so far in 2008, versus 5.02 (based on 17 HRs, 36 BBs, and 66 Ks in 97 1/3 IP) for all of 2007.
These hypotheticals compare to his actual ERAs of 6.29 last year and 0.40 so far this year.

Without regard to the (relatively) minor variations in strike outs, “forgetting” to walk people (or issue home runs) are huge factors in the above, or most other, predictors of ERA.

]]> By: David Appelman http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cliff-jumping/#comment-32805 David Appelman Mon, 21 Apr 2008 19:14:39 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cliff-jumping/#comment-32805 I also see a 56% first strike rate (that includes first pitch outs), from an non-BR data source. I also see a 56% first strike rate (that includes first pitch outs), from an non-BR data source.

]]> By: Dave Cameron http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cliff-jumping/#comment-32803 Dave Cameron Mon, 21 Apr 2008 19:00:00 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cliff-jumping/#comment-32803 According to the data at Baseball Reference, he's actually throwing less first pitch strikes. He's at 56% First Strike Percentage, down from his career average of 62%. How did you calculate your data? I'm sure he's had better location than usual during his first several starts. I'm just not sure that this is a sustainable skill. If the difference in his results is simply a millimeter here or there within the strike zone, that's the definition of having his success hanging from a thread. According to the data at Baseball Reference, he’s actually throwing less first pitch strikes. He’s at 56% First Strike Percentage, down from his career average of 62%. How did you calculate your data?

I’m sure he’s had better location than usual during his first several starts. I’m just not sure that this is a sustainable skill. If the difference in his results is simply a millimeter here or there within the strike zone, that’s the definition of having his success hanging from a thread.

]]> By: Jake Stutzman http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cliff-jumping/#comment-32802 Jake Stutzman Mon, 21 Apr 2008 18:08:15 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cliff-jumping/#comment-32802 I does appear that he is throwing more first pitch strikes, though. I calculated it at about 6% more often than 2007, and he's getting 8% fewer strikes with contact. This tells me he's getting ahead and throwing a) more quality pitches or b) better location. I does appear that he is throwing more first pitch strikes, though. I calculated it at about 6% more often than 2007, and he’s getting 8% fewer strikes with contact. This tells me he’s getting ahead and throwing a) more quality pitches or b) better location.

]]> By: Eric Seidman http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cliff-jumping/#comment-32793 Eric Seidman Mon, 21 Apr 2008 16:21:31 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cliff-jumping/#comment-32793 Very nice. If Cliff Lee throws a curveball that doesn't break can we call them Cliffhangers? Very nice. If Cliff Lee throws a curveball that doesn’t break can we call them Cliffhangers?

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