The NCAA looks like they are going to do something soon. They already have New rules for 2012 (BBCOR?), but rumor has it something is going to happen sooner.

That’s an issue, but not my issue.

“You can see from looking at the 10% and 90% projections [for CHONE] that Abreu has a wider range of outcomes than Wood does.”

No, you can’t, because that’s what I’m doing right now. There’s a 77 point band around Wood’s top- and bottom-shelf OBP projections and a 149 point band around his SLG while there are only a 65 and 122 point band around Abreu’s OBP and SLG. I’m not sure how you came to the conclusion you did, but if you were looking at LW Runs you were in error to do so because it is highly contingent on playing time and vice versa.

That said, I’m not sure if using a projection to prove the accuracy of a projection is the best way to go about it anyway. That’s like saying “The Bible is God’s word because it says it is!”

“I mean, feel free to obsess about whether Dave Cameron is a dick or not if that’s what interests you…”

It is, and I appreciate your blessing.

“…but as far as the issue at hand, it seems clear that SOME minor leaguers are more predictable than SOME major leaguers.”

That might be true, but I’m not sure if you’d have any way to know until after the fact. Again, still not my issue. I don’t care that Dave is a caustic dick because I am too. I don’t care that he makes mistakes because we’re all human. What I care about is that we have an otherwise outstanding website going here and having a prominent analyst who makes bold proclamations without regard to facts and employs the “I’m right, you’re wrong, end of conversation” tactic when cornered undermines the credibility of the whole operation.

CHONE, as far as i can tell, doesn’t sum up its projection’s volatility with a beta number as PECOTA does, but you can see from looking at the 10% and 90% projections that Abreu has a wider range of outcomes than Wood does. Which means he’s less predictable. If you’re comparing, say, Albert Pujols to Madison Bumgarner, then yes, the proven major leaguer is far more reliable; but not in this case.

I mean, feel free to obsess about whether Dave Cameron is a dick or not if that’s what interests you, but as far as the issue at hand, it seems clear that SOME minor leaguers are more predictable than SOME major leaguers.

Cameron’s almost certainly right about that particular case. I don’t know about CHONE, but PECOTA has considerably more confidence in its projection for Wood than for Abreu.

Why? Because there’s a big difference between a generic minor leaguer and 24-yr-old with 1500 pa’s in the high minors. And there’s a big difference between a generic major leaguer and a 35-yr-old who seems to be losing his skills in a hurry.

As far as this article, I am saying that he has brought up the relevant questions, but has failed to prove his point. Personally I do think we can do college projections, my results so far have not been any worse than projecting minor leagues, but there’s still work to be done to improve what I have.

He said something like 95% scouting, 5% statistics.

The problem with college statistics is not just that it’s nearly impossible to make them context neutral, it’s also that the players are so far from their true talent level. Even in low minor leagues, making the statistics context neutral doesn’t solve the problem, because these players are still growing and developing.