Comments on: Confirmation Biases and Cliff

By: aweb

aweb — Tue, 19 May 2009 18:42:28 +0000

Unrelated to Lee, 4-5 wins is a pretty high bar to get over to be considered a “good” pitcher. In 2007 and 2008, there were only 27-28 guys making to 4.0 and above. Guys like Oswalt, Felix Hernandez, Matsusaka and Garza were below 4.0 in 2008, and were all, I would say, good.

Confirmation bias does fit this situation perfectly, as it often does. Media in general are (is?) terrible at falling into this trap – whether in sports or elsewhere. Once a player gets a certain reputation, the media usually goes looking for more examples to back that up. Politics is far worse at this, however…once a political leader gets a certain reputation, everything is seen through that lens, no matter how ridiculous the fit might be (no examples given to avoid political baiting).

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suspect going into the year that Lee would be the next Loaiza (2002 great, all other times meh), but waiting for at least 6-7 starts was called for.

By: OE

OE — Tue, 19 May 2009 14:16:49 +0000

Im getting hammered right now.

moral of the story, drink up.

By: MPC

MPC — Tue, 19 May 2009 04:45:41 +0000

He got hammered by the Mets in spring training last season.

Moral of the story: who gives a crap about spring training performance?

By: Curtis

Curtis — Tue, 19 May 2009 03:21:49 +0000

Only Lee’s not taking the good —> great —> good route. You couldn’t fluke your way from replacement level to Cy Young in one year’s time with all the luck in the world. Average —> excellent —> slightly less excellent is more like it.

By: Mark R

Mark R — Tue, 19 May 2009 02:48:41 +0000

I’ve definitely displayed some confirmation bias in re Mr. Lee. I watched him get hammered by Texas at spring training in Surprise and took that to be the first sign that the smoke and mirrors weren’t going to work anymore. Then I saw his slow start to the regular reason and started to feel pretty confident in my assessment. Turns out, of course, that I don’t know anything. Go Cliff!

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Tue, 19 May 2009 02:28:21 +0000

No, confirmation bias IS what I’m wanting here, as people are looking for any and all signs to indicate that Lee either isn’t good or will in no way come close to any semblance of last season.

You and I just happen to disagree on what constitutes a fluke. If a good pitcher has a great year and reverts to being good, I don’t consider the great year to be fluky at all. Then again, I’m considering a good pitcher to be around +4-5 wins or so. A +7 win season is remarkable and unlikely to be repeated by anyone even if they are great. Very few pitchers have been able to sustain that type of performance over several seasons.

Going from +7 to +5.2 is not a fluke, since +5.2 is still a pretty tremendous season.

By: Jim

Jim — Tue, 19 May 2009 01:28:55 +0000

Just because he didn’t fall off a cliff(heh) this year, doesn’t mean last year wasn’t a fluke. Going from +7 -> +5.2 win’s is pretty much a fluke. Of course, just because last season was a fluke, doesn’t mean he will suck this year. It just means he will be a good, rather than great pitcher. If a good player has a great year and then goes back to being good, it’s still a fluke. I don’t think confirmation bias is what you want here. It’s probably a form of anchoring again.