Comments on: Cristian Guzman and Position Changes

By: Joe R

Joe R — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 12:45:17 +0000

I don’t think anyone’s calling Guzman a gamebreaker. He’s a very average player who’s probably fine for a platoon or one-two year fix.

By: Doug Melvin

Doug Melvin — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 21:45:14 +0000

“I’m gonna give Cameron the benefit of the doubt here. I don’t think he’s getting on VORP as a stat, he’s getting on people who immediately think moving a player to a position where his VORP decreases hurts him and/or the team.”

Fair enough. Danke.

By: Neil

Neil — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 20:40:51 +0000

Guzman doesn’t even get close to many grounders that look like sure outs off the bat. Couple that with Ian Desmond’s long awaited breakout season, and I think the Nats have to at least try Guz at 2nd. They’re already paying him $8mil in 2010 so that would be preferable to, say, making a run at Orlando Hudson. But if the Nats have any hope of contention, they need to figure out second base which has been an absolute black hole in their lineup.

By: Teej

Teej — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 20:09:10 +0000

Yuniesky Betancourt put up historically atrocious UZR numbers while playing next to Adrian Beltre for years.

From my readings of MGL’s explanations, UZR does not dock players for playing next to good teammates. And if it does, it’s to a very small degree.

By: BlackOps

BlackOps — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 19:51:35 +0000

Wouldn’t that hurt Guzman’s UZR?

By: pm

pm — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 19:37:54 +0000

This is a big flaw in UZR. Guzman’s UZR looks great because Ryan Zimmerman is easily the best 3B in baseball. Zimmerman steals a lot of balls to his left (Guzman’s right) with CF-like range. Just to put it into perspective. Zimmerman leads all league 3B with 89 plays out of his zone. 2nd place has 49 plays out of his (Reynolds). That is almost double.

By: Joe R

Joe R — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 18:29:59 +0000

So if we call those all singles, maybe throw a double in there, we can use .6 runs per play (+0.1 runs for the out, +0.5 for preventing the hit).

So, +7.5 to +8 runs going right vs. left.

One year sample size, halfassed analysis, seems pretty lateral to me, if the Nats have a solid SS option, could definitely be a move worth looking into. And if Guzman can still field his position (UZR and +/- says he can), he could very well play at a Pedroia/Hill level at 2B. Still can’t believe after the beginning of his career, that we’d be calling Cristian Guzman an above average player.

By: Joe R

Joe R — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 18:23:52 +0000

I remember once when I told a Rockie fan that J.D. Drew > Brad Hawpe, they came back by telling me that Hawpe could be a great CF and Drew couldn’t.

I suspected prolonged drug abuse.

By: LeeTro

LeeTro — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 18:19:38 +0000

While his UZR shows his range being average, his errors are atrocious (1 every 50 innings). I don’t see the Nats much, so I’m not sure what the problem is. If he has a majority of fielding or catching errors, the move probably won’t help. If they are throwing errors, then the move should help. I wonder if it’s possible to split up the errors category into “fielding errors” and “throwing errors” for UZR calculation in the future.

By: nny

nny — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 18:12:11 +0000

Going by plus/minus, Guzman is +10 to his right, -6 strait on, -3 to his left. That’s plays. not runs.

What’s interesting is that it was basically the opposite last year. He was +13 to his left and -6 to his right in 2008.