Comments on: Cubs Win at Strikeouts

By: someguy132

someguy132 — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 23:19:16 +0000

id be wary of thinking that…… if we were discussing league k/9 rate instead of leading k/rate, then maybe id be more convinced.

off the cuff, though, my first thoughts were that those 01-04 staffs were simply better? you had the good kerry wood, the good mark prior, clement was striking out people, and zambrano came up in 02

By: John Galt

John Galt — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 22:16:39 +0000

Interesting how the leading K/9 rate is significantly lower since testing was introduced. If that trend holds true across baseball, it’d seem to be evidence that steroids helped pitchers, but not hitters.

By: Nick P.

Nick P. — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 21:33:48 +0000

Oh, I interpreted that as short outings on behalf of the starting pitcher. I’m not sure if you meant starters, relievers, or both, but the difference is generally negligible either way.

I was looking for but couldn’t find an article at Baseball Prospectus about the average length of plate appearance for the general outcomes of baseball: the strikeout, the walk, the ball in play, and maybe the hit by pitch. The strikeout was maybe 4.5 or so pitches, the walk maybe 5.5 and the ball in play somewhere around 3, so even in the more extreme cases, assuming they clung to the mean, the difference would clock in at about a maybe an extra pitch and a half or two pitches or so per inning relative to average. That could mean two or three fewer batters per game for a starter, but for a reliever it’s almost meaningless.

By: Nick P.

Nick P. — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 21:09:29 +0000

Cubs starters have averaged 6.00 innings per start since 2001 against an NL average of 5.85.

By: Nick

Nick — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 19:46:07 +0000

While I agree that strikeouts are usually the best result for a pitcher I wonder if it is the best result for the team. Note how often (or not) the Cubs finished first in the division over this span. I wonder if all those strikeout pitchers and correspondingly short outings over-taxed their bullpen and caused late losses. I also wonder if the hitting background in Wrigley might have something to do with all the k’s.

By: Kevin

Kevin — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 08:33:02 +0000

Oh, see, intuitively I’d think that K% does a better job of isolating strikeout ability, because it doesn’t ignore plate appearances. You say the correlation is about .95 though, so yeah, it really doesn’t make that much of a difference. Again, I’m more comfortable using K/9, just thought that K% would be more informative. This is why we don’t rely on intuition to draw conclusions, though.

By: David Appelman

David Appelman — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 07:40:18 +0000

Kevin: I think you best put into words why we have not switched to K% (K/PA). K% is better on its own but K% isn’t a stat that should be used on its own either, and I think when used in conjunction with other stats (BB/9, HR/9, GB%), K/9 is more useful because it does a better job of isolating strikeout ability.

Overall, they’re really the same. I think it’s something like a .95 correlation between the two.

GB% is calculated as a % of balls in play, so you can’t add GB% and K%. Though… that would be an interesting way to present things. Each component as a % of TBF. Maybe something to look into doing.

By: Kevin

Kevin — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 07:22:33 +0000

I also was weaned on K/9, but what you lose in that statistic is that is essentially converts to K/outs, and ignores the PA where the pitcher didn’t get an out. K% is perhaps more informative in and of itself, while K/9 is more easily interpreted, but needs more supporting statistics (not that any statistic can be viewed in a vacuum, of course).

By: Trev

Trev — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 07:09:51 +0000

Mike R:

The GB% listed in fangraphs only applies to balls hit in play. K/PA is for all plate appearances.

According to fangraphs, Brandon Webb got a groundball or strikeout from 64.8% of all batters he faced.

By: Bearskin Rugburn

Bearskin Rugburn — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 04:47:28 +0000

Like Dan says, the top five K/9 clubs from 2004-2008 have a total of 6 Al teams in there, and that includes some true pitching powerhouses (three of those six were Angels teams). I didn’t look farther back but the trend is pretty clear.