Damon Lands
It’s hard to believe that pitchers and catchers have already reported and Johnny Damon is just now reaching a deal. Scott Boras has finally managed to find a home for his client, and, unsurprisingly, that home will be in Detroit. Damon will receive $8 million for his services – a hefty sum compared to what the Yankees were reportedly offering, but peanuts compared to what he was hoping for.
Some say that Scott Boras hung him out to dry, but the truth is that a multi-year, $10+ million market simply wasn’t going to be there for a player like Damon. Teams have taken note of Damon’s poor arm, and his bat simply wasn’t good enough to be worth more than $10MM in a market that pays $3.5MM per win. CHONE projects him for 3.0 wins with what looks like a very questionable defensive projection of +10 R/150 G. Knocking that down to +2.5 – his career UZR/150 in LF and a tad higher than what his -9 UZR/150 in CF would suggest – leaves him at 2.3 WAR. That puts the deal at $3.5MM/WAR, or almost exactly market value.
Looking at the team side of the deal, Damon should be a decent fit. Between the three outfield spots, there are probably about 2100-2200 plate appearances available, leaving plenty of playing time for Damon, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Austin Jackson, and Ryan Raburn. This should be a decent outfield, as Ordonez and Damon are both above average players and Raburn is near average. Guillen should rebound and, as Dave showed, could be a sleeper this year. Jackson remains a question mark, but this outfield will provide some punch.
The problem is that even with Damon on board, this team is nowhere near a contender. Major middle infield and starting pitching issues look like too much to overcome, and both the Twins and White Sox look clearly better than the Tigers right now. As it stands, the Tigers will probably need some luck to clear .500, and their playoff chances, with or without Damon, look bleak.
When evaluating this deal, there’s one main question to be asked: are the roughly two wins provided by the Damon signing worth eight million dollars to the Tigers, even if they’re eventually irrelevant to this year’s playoffs? It’s hard to answer that question without knowing the details of the Tigers’ budget. Wins, even at the lower end of the curve, do correlate to ticket sales, and teams obviously need whatever revenue they can get. Detroit won’t be handcuffed down the road by this contract. As long as this deal isn’t the reason that Detroit is inactive in the international free agent market or passive in the draft, this deal can only improve their team, both in the sort term and the long term.
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Didn’t they trade Granderson because they needed to clear salary? Paying market value per win — even depressed market value — seems to cut directly against the earlier decision to jettison a 4+ win player over a few million dollars.
I never understood that reasoning for the Granderson trade. It always looked more likely that they traded him to get younger with Scherzer/Jackson, not necessarily to get cheaper (though getting younger means cheaper as well).
The Damon signing looks like they feel that no one else in the division really made a move this offseason, and the playoffs are there for the taking in the Central.
It wasn’t about money. At least that seems to be the consensus at this point.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-tigers-and-money/
They don’t need to clear salary. Their payroll’s already in the $130 mil. range because they (for whatever reason) let Ordonez’s option vest.
except the Twins have made several moves, and seem to be the clear favorites in the Central.
@Steve
I agree, but that’s the most logical reason they would add Damon to the roster at $8M. I’m attempting to explain their move, not approve it.
Temo, my bad, read it too fast.
Chone’s 17 HR prediction for Damon may also be an overshoot. His hittracker numbers last year were not very impressive.
Detroit will be the first time in a long time that Damon won’t have a short right field porch to prey on.
the Yankees reportedly offered Damon $14M/2 very early on. Is $8M/1 really a “hefty sum” in comparison?
How is Detroit “nowhere near a contender”, and how are the White Sox, in particular, “clearly better” than the Tigers?
You say the middle infield has major issues, but it’s the same SS that helped them win 86 games defensively, and the 2b figures to be an offensive upgrade over Polanco, which should offset any defensive downgrade he brings at the position. I don’t see how that’s an issue.
The Tigers’ rotation has a higher upside than any group in the division, and if Bonderman is back throwing at his previous velocity, as has been reported (not saying he is for sure), that gives the Tigers a top 4 that isn’t far off from Chicago.
I don’t understand where Chicago has somehow jumped over Detroit so easily in the minds of so many people. I look at the two teams and think they’re about the same, with Minnesota a likely notch above both.
Correct. In fact I believe CHONE now predicts the Tigers to be 2 wins above average offensively/defensively. And for pitching, Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello are probably the strength of the team, multiple reports of Bonderman having his velocity back, and the bullpen has enough depth and arms to be a strength. PECOTA, before Damon, only predicted 80 wins, but that was enough to be tied for first in the division.
Of course an injury to the rotation or a complete flop by one of the rookies could pretty much end the season, but to say that they don’t have a legitimate chance is wrong.
Anyone who believes Spring Training hyperbole is a drunk. “Velocity is back,” “working on a new wipe-out cutter,” “lost XX pounds;” Bonderson has been such a train-wreck since his string of injuries started, why should anyone believe he’ll do anything impressive in the ’10 season?
Bonderman has had one injury, and he’s been attempting to come back from it.
I’m not saying “bet the farm that Bonderman is back.” I’m saying that it’s a possibility that would certainly give the Tigers a significantly better chance to compete in the division.
Correct, get a bunch of sportswriters down in FL or AZ with deadlines to meet and *nothing* actually happening, you get stories like that. It doesn’t matter how much his fastball comes back if his slider doesn’t come back 100%. Without the wicked slider, he’s nothing at all.
Players can bounce back from injuries and all reports are that he is healthy. If you take that philosophy with him then you shouldn’t expect anything out of Brandon Webb this season and you never should have expected anything out of Chris Carpenter last season.
One more point on Bonderman and the way he’s throwing. I know it’s his teammate and that should normally be taken with a grain of salt but Verlander as well was quoted as saying that Bonderman has looked great.
While he was getting interviewed on the Hot Stove on MLB network few weeks ago he said (paraphrasing) “I just want to say something about Bondo, I’ve been working out with him and his ball has more life on it than I’ve seen in years”
Now the only reason I’m putting any stock into that what so ever is because there really was no reason for Verlander to even bring him up in the first place. I could see if they asked him how he looked but he just said it out of nowhere. If there wasn’t atleast some truth to it chances are he wouldn’t have even said anything to begin with.
For the record I’m not necessarily buying the whole he is all the way back thing I’m just pointing out that it wasn’t just reporters that said this.
Mike is absolutely correct here. Bonderman’s velocity is not “spring training hyperbole”. It’s a major part of the recovery process for his comeback from surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome (which required the removal of a rib). His velocity was depressed last season as he had not fully recovered from the surgery, and if (that’s the big word) it has indeed returned that is more than a Spring Training special interest story. Especially when you speak of a 27 year old pitcher.
One thing Mike is wrong about is that Bonderman actually had two injuries. He had an elbow injury in 2007. He recovered from that one when he was diagnosed with TOS in ’08.
It would be foolish to write down in bold ink that “Bonderman is back”, but it is equally foolish to discount the possibility that he might be. All told, whether he is back or not isn’t entirely germane to the central point that there’s not a real good reason to believe the White Sox are “clearly better” than the Tigers, nor that the Tigers have “little chance” of making the post-season. I agree with Mike’s appraisal that the Twins are the front runners with the Tigers and White Sox roughly equal and a (small) step behind them.
The most recent pecota projection that I see (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/) has the Tigers exactly one game behind the White Sox and two behind the Twins. That hardly screams out “no chance” and “clearly worse”. I’m not sure if those projections were even done with Damon taken into account (or Branyan on the Indians for that matter).
I think the beef people have is the characterization that they have no chance when they do have much more than a “little” chance of winning the division. Are they the favorites? No. Would I bet money on them winning the division? No. Am I even completely confident that they will finish in second? No. But if they were to win the division there’s really no room in my heart for shock or surprise in the scenario.
I couldn’t remember if Bonderman’s deal in 07 was an actual injury, or if it was more of a tired arm type deal that a lot of guys (young pitchers in particular) go through after making the playoffs and getting a big innings spike. If he was injured, I don’t remember it being something where surgery was needed. That’s why I didn’t really count it.
Here’s the story on it:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3013443
He didn’t undergo surgery but it was slightly more serious than just dead arm.
Point is, bonderman hasn’t been healthy and *good* since 2006. I love bonderman and I’d looooove to see him come back win games here, but until you see him get some big league hitters out it’s best to expect nothing out of him.
Again, bonderman fan here, but the guy has thrown 80 innings in two years, has had exactly one above average season, and has a 4.78 career era. The guy’s not exactly sheets/carpenter or anything. honestly, we’ll be very lucky if he returns as a serviceable #5.
Injury more then Damon will decide the AL Central, thought he helps the tigers, I don’t know that for him this is a good deal. I think its a safe bet that next year he wont be as well paid as Abreu was this winter. Comerica should probably hurt his numbers more then the already anticipated decline projection systems already have marked for him will.
no where near a contender in the central? and passive in the draft?
Jack Moore must have ties to either minny or chitown.
Damon certainly gives them more opps for runs scored. Tigers pitching with front three is excellent and very good bullpen depth.
The Tigers have gone overslot for several years, Verlander, Porcello, Turner, Fields.
I am surprised that some of the reaction to this deal is that Boras hung him out to dry. Makes no sense to me. It was quite easy to see that Damon was likely to be the Abreu of this offseason. Getting him 8 mil with none deferred borderline shocked me at this point.
depends how much stock you put in the Yanks’ early offer of $14M/2.
If true, I think Boras hurt him. Also, if you believe that Johnny truly WANTED to return to NY (comfort factor, likes the city/teammates, etc), then I think it’s a legitimate question if Boras best served his clients’ needs.
“nowhere near a contender” is wildly off-base. they’d be nowhere near a contender in the AL east, but in the central they’re in the thick of it. they have question marks, sure, but so do the twins and whitesox. I mean, we have guillen, magglio, and inge but the sox are starting pierre, rios and teahen. the whitesox offense is spotty and their defense is terrible; the twins have put a nice lineup together, but their pitching staff is less than impressive. It’ll probably be a pretty wild year in the central.
sure seems like this is also the kind of signing that could very well end up netting the tigers some draft pick compensation after the season, no?
I’d think that Damon would be extremely likely to accept arbitration if the Tigers offered it to him.
Why in the world would you say that at this point? Damon bats .240 with 8 HRs, he accepts. He bats .315 with 25 HRs, he probably doesn’t.
I think cowdisciples comment is extremely unlikely to be anything but guesswork.
Seriously? He’d be likely to take arbitration because he couldn’t get a multi-year deal
Seriously?
He’d be likely to take arbitration because he couldn’t get a multi-year deal this past offseason despite coming off a very nice year and waiting the entire winter. I really have trouble envisioning Damon putting up significantly better numbers than he did last year.
Next winter he’ll be a year older, and teams will be even more reluctant to commit to more than a year. I don’t claim to know how the market will change between now and then, but chances are arb deals for veterans will still be quite a bit more than their free agent value.
The Tigers pitching staff has a very high upside. If that clicks, they will absolutely be a contender.
I think the Twins are the top contender in the Central, but the excitement of the new park, along with removing one of the most influential home-field advantages might leave the door ajar for the others (but not you, KC, sorry).
I’m wondering who’s going to play the “rover” position so Damon can get the ball back to the IFers? Jeter made him look no-as-bad for a while.
Nowhere near a contender?
Certain commenters around here have rumbled in the past against this site’s anti-Detroit bias, and I think it’s bull, but when a sentence like that comes out, I have to wonder.
The Twins have a great lineup. But do you really think that Kubel and Cuddyer are going to repeat their career years from last season? The projection systems seem to think they’ll get most of the way there. How? I’m not sure. But when I think “30+ HR,” I don’t think Cuddyer, that’s for sure.
The Twins also have a rotation full of pitch-to-contact, mostly flyball starters, and combine that with their atrocious outfield defense, and an infield that isn’t much better, and I wonder how their run prevention is going to look.
The White Sox have a stacked rotation that falls apart if Jake Peavy doesn’t stay healthy. Good thing he has pitched full seasons lately … oh, wait.
The White Sox’s lineup is worse than the Tigers, and they also don’t have the pretty good defense that the Tigers have.
Even PECOTA projected the three teams in a a three way tie before Damon signed. So now, after adding Damon, they’re “not even close to a contender”? Give me a break.
Detroit doesn’t project well because a good deal of their strength is in the arms of Porcello and Scherzer. FIP didn’t like Porcello last season, but then his HR/FB was 14.1%, too. Is that going to repeat? Not likely. Is a sub 3 walk rate likely to continue? I’d say yes. And are the strikeouts likely to go up? I don’t know, ask the 8 Twins he punched out in his last start.
I just don’t know how you can write for this site and say the Tigers “aren’t even close to being a contender” when A, the division is awful, B, they were in first place until the last game last season, and C, their team has improved since last season.
I think the Twins have a significant edge, but certainly not to the point that Detroit or Chicago should be conceding the division.
Not sure why you’re hating on the Twins’ infield D. The outfield will be atrocious, granted, but the infield should be better than average. Hardy is a defensive monster, Morneau is right around average, Hudson is probably a half-tic below average, and whoever is playing 3B will tip the balance on any given day. If it’s Harris, the overall infield will be around average. If it’s Punto, that’s actually a really good infield defense on the strength of the left side.
Why does no one talk about C. Thomas.. the guy put up 1.8 WAR inn 300 plate appearances last year.. his +30/urz/150 inn right is outragous even given the small sample size you would be lead to believe that he could be nuetral inn center.. guy always walks over 10% of the time so if his offense came inn around (-5) he’s still be an above average player inn center… A. Jackson’s 123:40 strikeout to walk ratio inn AAA would lead anyone w half a brain to believe he’s a year off from being anything close to league average inn center.. unless he’s carlos gomez w the glove.. and i’ve herd nothing of that
Eric cole… i definately agree where minnesota may run into a problem w thier pitch to contact style while running some combination of Kubel , Cuddyer, and young inn the corners.. alot of fly balls will turn into doubles.. however.. thier infield def. is pretty solid… Det.’s season will prolly come down to the arms of gallaraga, bonderman, robertson, and bonnie.. if one or two of them returns to form or luck.. they’ll be inn it until the end
Damon has bad calves that will be on display in Comerica Park. He needs a lot of days off, because of his calves. he will be a good at bat, but the park will eat up his runs.
Boras definitely held off the negotiations with the Yankees while Holliday (who wanted to play for the Yankees,) remained unsigned.
Damon was an after thought, by the time Boras turned to Damon, (after he milked the Cardinals,) Cashman had moved on without Damon.
Damon should’ve told Boras, “I’ll start off your way, in dealing with the Yankees, but bottom line I stay with the team, take the best deal.” Instead he rejected the highest oferf all postseason, from the Yankees (more money and yrs,) for a family move, on a 1 yr contract, in a state his wife didn’t want to go .
Damon was quoted as saying, “The Yankees were the best team he ever played on, and treated him the best.,” I guess like the saying goes, NO GOOD DEED GOES UNPUNISHED!!
Yep, Red Sox fans are well aware of the snooty attitude he took towards the Red Sox FO during the Varitek contract rumblings. Wonder if he wants those words back.
According to several reports, it was Damon and not Boras that told the Yankees he would not even discuss a contract if they were offering a pay cut. The whole “Damon wanted to stay with the Yankees, but Boras messed up and wouldn’t let him” angle is just a dumb one. If Damon wanted to stay as badly as some suggest, he’d still be there.
As for the rest stuff, the Tigers have guys like Raburn or Clete Thomas they could play that are just as good as Damon (this signing really doesn’t make a ton of sense for that reason). If Damon sits for 20 games this season against LHP with Raburn playing LF or DH, that’s not a bad things at all for the Tigers. Raburn posted a .412 wOBA v. LHP last season and is a clear defensive upgrade in LF over Damon and Guillen.
I agree with this. Not to mention he’s pushing $100MM earned in his career, and will break that mark this season ($105,189,000 to be exact).
I’d like to have about 1/100th of that.
The problem is that even with Damon on board, this team is nowhere near a contender.
Whoa whoa whoa.
They are projected (updated 2/20) to be a -24 RS/RA club. The Twins are a +3. This is also a team that was a last week fold up from the postseason. How can you say w/out any doubt that they are “nowhere near a contender”? Especially in such a weak division.
So the Tigers (in effect) traded Granderson to the Yankees for Damon. Not a good trade.
Sure, if you want to ignore that they also got Max Scherzer, Phil Coke, Daniel Schlereth and Austin Jackson.
actually.. it would be Granderson for Damon, Jackson, Coke, and Kennedy…
I’ll take that trade, even though Tigs didn’t get Kennedy
well technically they did bc kennedy went to ari. along w jackson for schertzer and schlerith
It should also be noted that adding Damon to the outfield gives management a “certainly” credible bat that can be used as an excuse to sit Ordonez more often. They were one C. Guillen DL stint away from having Ordonez’s 2011 option vest. Now, even if Ordonez is healthy all season, they have 5 guys competing for playing time at LF, RF, DH in Guillen, Raburn, Damon, Ordonez, and sometimes C. Thomas. So if Ordonez’s option is prevented from vesting, his market value will likely be $6-$8 million heading into 2011. In other words, if Detroit reups Ordonez for 2011 at market value, then signing Damon this season was “free”.
So, I get the choice to reduce the overly optimistic defensive CHONE projections to something still optimistic but slightly more in line with Damon’s career performance.
What I don’t understand is why Moore didn’t make any concomitant adjustment to his offensive run value – considering CHONE is using three years of YSII/III data and (as we now know) Damon is moving to a much less friendly park for left-handed hitters.
I think this is a solid signing. They may not be serious contenders for the division crown by the end of September but even if it helps them stay in contention in the summer they could make their money back via ticket sales. Tigers fans have shown that they will attend games, particularly in the warmer weather if the Tigers are in contention. Them being a couple games back vs. 4 or 5 could mean 10,000 extra fans a game(don’t believe me check out their 05 attendance figures vs. last year). So you say they play 40 or so home games during the summer months of June-August that’s a few hundred thousand extra fans. At around $20 a ticket you’re talking around 6 million just in ticket prices, plus all the concession sales where teams really make a killing.
I know people will say things like “They bid twice what any other team was offering”, that maybe true but people have to realize it sometimes takes more money to get somebody to come to Detroit. Just last week his wife was quoted as saying she wanted him to play in a more “cosmopolitan” city, well Chicago was also one of his suitors and I think they fit that bill. If Chi’s offer was 4 and Detroit offered 5 or 6 the extra million or 2 may not be enough to sway him from going to a place like that, so I figure the Tigers felt the need to go higher just to be safe, which I really can’t blame them if they did have their heart set on signing him. Better safe than sorry, atleast they didn’t give him a multi year deal.
Tigers cleared cash this year like the Yankees. Granderson was part of that movement. Johnny’s there for one year, maybe a half year. I expect they’ll make a play for Carl Crawford next year as well. Watching that guy cover ground in spacious Comerica Park will excite fans in attendance.
How is Ryan Raburn only ‘near average’? Last year he had an OPS+ of 128, or 28% above average, while it is unlikely that he’ll be able to sustain that next year there is no reason to expect a giant drop in production. Also while his outfield routes aren’t great they’ll get better as he plays more and he’s got a plus plus arm.
rayburn had a 31:21 strike out to walk ratio against lefthanders… it was 29:5 against righties…good babip against righties kept his numbers excellent… Cameron on one of the video casts’ said he though rayburn would get over-exposed as a full time player… as a tigers’ fan i completely agree.. rayburn is an EXCELLENT 4th outfielder/platoon guy that crushes lefties.. but i have my doubts if he could top 2 WAR as a full time player.. i think he got right around 300 PA last year.. i’d be happy 2 see what he could do with 400 this year
Hey guys I’m kind of new here, so I’m just curious, why does Chone project Damon to be so strong defensively next year, with a 6.4 UZR/150?
Probably because he had a very good year in 2008 defensively. 2009 was the first year of him sucking in LF. It’s possible that he’s not really that bad (Abreu was godawful in RF for the 2008 Yankees and then was merely bad for the 2009 Angels).
“nowhere near a contender comment” is either lazy or just flat out bad. Terrible line by Mr. Moore. He’d probably admit that.
Leyland keeps talking about jackson leading off… leave it to that fool to put a guy that CHONE projects a .313woba to lead off… Damon leading off followed by sizemore or a C. THomas / rayburn platoon… or even guillen.. would make much more sense… someone should e-mail that guy this web adress