Dave Bush Sent Down Due to…Um…
The Milwaukee Brewers optioned Dave Bush to their AAA Nashville club this week following an 0-3 start with a 6.75 ERA. This irked many in the statistical community, especially MGL, because not only is Bush pitching better than the barometric numbers indicate, he is pitching right on par with normal #3 or #4 starters.
The problem, after looking into it more, is not necessarily that Bush’s optioning stems from his slow start but that it may have to do with his Jekyll-like transformation once runners get on base. In 1649 career PA, batters are posting a .253/.307/.420 clip against Bush while the bases are empty. When occupied, though, this jumps to .314/.355/.546 in 1121 PA. Despite these numbers, if the decision to option Bush stemmed from a kneejerk reaction to a small sample size, this argument does not even hold water.
This year, with 57 PA, opponents are hitting .320/.404/.560 with the bases empty. In 47 PA, they are hitting just .263/.340/.368 with runners on base. In the early going he has allowed a higher percentage of runners to reach base but has actually reduced his slash line once they get to their respective bases.
Ned Yost attributed the move to control issues. In his four 2008 starts, Bush has thrown 57.6% of his pitches for strikes. In 2007 he threw 65.6% strikes out of 2972 pitches. In 2006 he threw 66.4% strikes out of 3021 pitches. He has thrown a lower percentage of strikes, putting himself into more “Hafta’ Counts” and forcing himself to pitch from behind. The Brewers had a pitching surplus entering the season, often fostering rumors of trading Bush and/or Claudio Vargas.
Seemingly happy with the production from Ben Sheets, Yovani Gallardo, Jeff Suppan, Carlos Villanueva, and Manny Parra, the team felt they could handle letting Bush get his control back in a few minor league starts. The decision was definitely based off of a small sample size and, in that regard, makes little sense, but I hope they realize it is way too early to sell their stock on Bush.
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I have very mixed feelings about the optioning of Bush to AAA. I agree it’s too early to give up on him entirely, but perhaps it is best to send him down there to work out his control issues.
If he’s walking around 2 batters per 9, it’s one thing, but over 4 isn’t going to cut it with him. Then again if you’re looking strictly at K/BB, Parra, Villanueva and Suppan aren’t exactly doing a whole lot better than Bush.
I’ll be interested to see how long they let him stick around AAA.
One of his strong suits has been K/BB and it seems his success is mostly derived from keeping runners offbase (his WHIP is generally low). If he’s putting guys on, as noted by the splits, he has historically struggled. I agree if control was the reason they sent him down then perhaps it was a good move; if it was because he is struggling in the early going then I wouldn’t agree with it. Yost said 2-3 starts in AAA.
funny, I was just looking at Dustin McGowan today, and something similar has happened to him this season. For his career, he has fairly dramatic L/R splits and MenOn/NoneOn splits. In 08, both of those have reverted so far, along with an overall higher BB rate. For 08, .402 OBP +74% LOB rate = 4.18 ERA.
Maybe it’s time to move him back to the closer’s role, which is what he did (quite well) in college, before the Jays converted him to a starter. His fastball plays up a bit in the pen.
Marc, I initially thought the same thing. What I’m curious to see is what happens when he comes back, with regards to transactions. He was sent down in order to activate Mike Cameron, but calling him up would likely necessitate sending down one of those starters or someone ineffective from the bullpen. I can’t see why he wouldn’t be favored over Parra or Villanueva, unless he cannot get his control back. Though I consider him better than Suppan, Jeff has a big deal and they aren’t just going to cut ties with him. Suppan may be a bit overrated but he is insanely consistent year to year.
As a Tigers fan, I’d love to have him instead of Kenny Rogers…let’s get on that!
I’d take him on the Phillies, too.
Eric, nice post.
One correction: you misappropriated Bush’s career splits with a man on first as his splits with men on. It’s not the difference between men on/bases empty, his problem is pitching from the stretch.
He’s not good enough from the stretch to overcome walks, as i posted in the thread you linked to.
As for the bullpen, Melvin/Yost have decided that Bush is a starter and they don’t like having their “6th starter” in the bullpen cause he cannot come right back to starting in an “emergency.” The bullpen is not for him this season. That also has to do with the fact that Parra has a limit on his innings this year, and is likely headed to the bullpen at some point in the future. Also, I agree with you that the decision to move Bush was based on his control problems so far this year, but since the Brewers feel this is mechanical I don’t think the “small sample” criticism applies.
Currently, the brewers have two flamethrowers with no control in the bullpen and there is probably only room for one. That’s where Bush’s roster spot will come from. I’ll say sometime in the first two weeks of June.
On Suppan being the worst starter. Yep, i don’t think there is any question. But there is something of value in the consistency you mention, with the brewers offense, a theoretical 5 runs allowed every game is going to be better than 2 runs one game and 7 another.
Jacob, all good points. I apologize for the men on/man on first discrepancy. My feeling with the sample size is that if the decision was based on statistics it was stupid – if it was based on a mechanical flaw leading to him throwing 10% less strikes then it makes sense. I don’t think Suppan is bad, by any means, despite last night’s start – I just don’t think he is as good as some would think he is following the world series with the Cardinals. He is definitely consistent though and, like you said, I’d rather know what I’m getting than wonder if it will be a great or bad start.