FWIW, Cabrera also hit 8 of his HR as a RH last year. and Yankee stadium doesn’t do anything for RH home runs (in fact it probably surpress it somewhat), and hittracker listed 8 of his HRs as no doubters (which was second on the Yankees!) looking at his spray chart it appears that only one of his HR last year was a true Yankee stadium special.

but yeah, with all the guys Atlanta has Melky needs to really break out fast to have a serious shot, on the brighter side if there’s anything he’s been very good at so far in his career, it’s a damn hot April.

I think you are right about these 3 guys. All 6 with the the pitcher companion piece.

Melky may well have improvement in him. However, I don’t see him stealing 20 bases for the Braves this year or any other year unless the manager after Cox likes to run more. Unless you are an Otis Nixon/Rafael Furcal burner type, the Braves just won’t run you much. Assuming we don’t sign Damon (which I agree with the other article, would just be a waste—Damon is good, but not better than what we already have), he’ll likely platoon with Diaz in left with McLouth in center and Heyward in right. That is probably the best use of Melky, too—McLouth makes too much sense in center and when Heyward is ready, he’ll play every day. And even if Melky breaks out given his age and possible abilities, he still won’t be better than Diaz against lefties—Diaz just absolutely destroys lefties.

I am also not sure about Melky’s long term future in Atlanta. Heyward, presumably, will sooner or later take an outfield spot and keep it for a long, long time. That takes care of right. McLouth still has two years left on his contract and fits better in center. Then there is Schafer and Diaz. Schafer will have at least half a season in AAA this year, but he should be back at the latest by 2011. The outfield is just too crowded for Melky to take over unless he really breaks out, and I don’t know if he’ll get that chance. Melky’s ability to play all three OF spots and his switch-hitting make him such a good fourth OF, he may just get stuck in that spot, especially with the glut of OF’s the Braves will have coming.

Of course, someone could get hurt and bam, Melky could get an opportunity and run with it. Barring that, however, I don’t know if he’ll get the chance to break out.

“I think you really have to temper that CHONE projection for Cabrera a lot. It’s predicting a really big progression for him(far higher offensive numbers than he’s ever posted or the ones projected by any other system – yes, counting FANS – listed here on FanGraphs), and you’re taking that at face value. I get that CHONE is the best out there, but I think you do need to dilute what’s obviously a heady (okay, dropping this metaphor…now) projection at least to some degree if you’re going to be realistic in that aspect of the analysis.”