David DeJesus and Type A Status
As has been written before, Royals outfielder David DeJesus is the sort of player who tends to fly under the radar because he does no one thing exceptionally well, but he does a number of things at an average or above-average level. He’s been about a 3 WAR player most of his career, and has accumulated almost that much value already in 2010. DeJesus probably isn’t an average center fielder any more, but runs saved in left or right field count, too. Despite having only average-ish power and being a terrible basestealer, DeJesus has a .344 career wOBA (.290/.361/.429). At 30, DeJesus is having a career year in 2010 offensively, with a .379 wOBA (.329/.397/.466). That probably is not his true talent level, but ZiPS’ rest-of-season projection is bullish nonetheless: .299/.369/.444 (.358 wOBA). One good test to see if a sports journalist has a clue is whether he or she says “David DeJesus is a fourth outfielder on a good team.” By my calculations, those people think that a fourth outfielder is someone whose true talent level over a full season is (conservatively, based on current projections) about 3 WAR. Draw your own conclusions.
Given DeJesus’ subtle combination of skills, it is ironic that the poorly-constructed-but-”official” Elias Rankings might somehow catch on to his value. According to the latest “reverse engineered” Elias Rankings at MLB Trade Rumors, if free agency started today, DeJesus would be Type A, meaning that if the Royals were to offer him arbitration and he turned it down then signed with another team, the Royals would get the signing team’s first round pick in the 2011 draft as well as supplemental pick.
This is particularly interesting because DeJesus is one of the Royals’ best trading chips due both to his value on the field and his team-friendly contract: $4.6 million for all of 2010 with a $6 milllion club option for 2011 (with a $500,000 buyout). Assuming DeJesus is only owed about two million dollars over the rest of the season and (using the conservative 3 WAR full season estimate) is projected to be worth about 1.5 wins at four million dollars per win, that’s four million dollars of surplus value this season. Assuming the team is smart and picks up the option, a half-win decline to 2.5 WAR for 2011 and inflation to about $4.5 million per win, that’s another five million dollars of surplus. Nine million dollars surplus could fetch something like good (if non-elite) prospect and perhaps some filler, and again, that’s based on a conservative estimate of DeJesus’ value.
But if DeJesus ends up a Type A free agent, that potentially adds an interesting wrinkle. In a Kansas City Star article from last month discussing DeJesus, several possible courses of action are mentioned, including trading DeJesus, picking up the 2011 option and keeping him, picking up the 2011 option and trading him in the offseason, and declining the option and then offering him arbitration in hopes he would turn it down and sign with another team, thus netting the Royals draft compensation. This last possibility is what interests me here.
It is an intriging suggestion, but ultimately, it is something the Royals should not do for two reasons. First of all, Victor Wang’s research on Type A compensation (summarized here) values average Type A compensation at about six million dollars. Assuming the Royals could make a fair trade (there is little point in analyzing possible screw-jobs) now at the conservatively-projected above surplus of nine million, the draft pick compensation wouldn’t hold up. Indeed, it is not clear that the draft pick compensation would even be more valuable than picking up DeJesus’ option and trading him in the offseason.
The second reason the arbitration-offer route is a bad idea is that DeJesus would be very likely to accept it. DeJesus is a good player that could help a lot of teams, but he isn’t a top-level talent like Matt Holliday was or Carl Crawford will be. He’s more like Orlando Hudson — a good player, but not good enough that teams are willing to overlook the draft pick they would have to give up to sign him. In each of the last two offseasons, Hudson ended up signing deals below his market value because teams were conscious of giving up the draft pick. DeJesus and his agent have no doubt noticed this, and realize they are likely to get a larger award in arbitration than free agency. If the Royals offer arbitration and DeJesus accepts, they not only don’t get the draft picks, but they would end up paying more in the arbitration award than they would have if they had picked up the option. Moreover, this would further reduce the surplus value (and thus potential return) DeJesus would have on the 2011 trade market.
DeJesus’ Type A status may bring send images of draft picks floating through the heads of Royals fans and officials. But given the likely outcome of that decision combined with the team’s current state, Kansas City should be looking to trade DeJesus now, as his value will never be higher.
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I think in the theoretical world where the Royals don’t pick up his option and offer arb instead that DeJesus would definitely accept, if for no other reason than that he is on record as saying he wants to stay with the Royals.
If the Royals keep him, they will pick up the option. They aren’t exactly looking to get rid of him, but if the right deal came along, I think they’d take it. Only problem is, they think they are in contention (only 8 games out, but have to jump 3 teams), so it would take more this year than other years to pry him away.
If they keep him and pick up the option, do they trade him in the offseason or midseason next year? I agree with the Orlando Hudson comparison. If he gets to free agency because the Royals didn’t offer arbitration and they lose him and get nothing, that is the worst case scenario.
I rally doubt the Royals think they are in “contention”. I understand why any team would say they are not out of it. Baltimore isn’t even out of it. I think the thing manager Ned Yost is actually saying is that this team doesn’t give up, because if there is still that possibility, no matter how remote, they will play hard and not quit. Which what teams should always do, but if you watched the Royals the past 15+ seasons, you know that players do give up all the time when things look bleak.
I think you’re right, insofar as there should be an expectation for players and teams to put forth effort even after they’re out of contention (which, sadly, doesn’t always happen). But I don’t think the competitiveness of, say, the 1997 Royals with Chili Davis, Glendon Rush, Bip Roberts, and the rest of the gang has much correlation to the competitive fires that may or may not burn within the 2010 version.
(Just saying they may have been competitive once out of contention then just as they are now, but the correlation between the two is nil because it’s an entirely different pool of players, different management, and different front office. Same pet peeve when people say, for instance, “In their 70-year history, the Albequerque Isotopes have never come from 3-1 down to win a best-of-seven series. Like the performance of the 1965 Isotopes has ANY relevance at all to the collection of guys facing that situation in the present.)
*Veered WAY off course…back to the DeJesus discussion. That boy good. And the Hudson comparison seems to be quite apt.
When the Twins signed Hudson this year, they didn’t have to give up any draft picks because the Dodgers didn’t even offer him arbitration, rendering O-hud’s Type A status irrelevant.
Ah. good point, although the Dodgers did the year before, didn’t they? In any case, the Hudson deal shows that mid-tier free agents haven’t been doing well recently in free agency, and so DeJesus would still be likely to be better off accepting arbitration.
Hudson was with the D-Backs the year before, not the Dodgers. Arizona did offer arb, which he declined, so they got the Dodgers first round pick plus a supplemental.
I think Matt meant that the Dodgers did have to give up draft picks.
correct, MBD
I have a vague recollection that one of the terms of Hudson’s deal with the Dodgers is that they wouldn’t offer him arbitration.
The other important point to consider is that in the case of a team that signs multiple Type A free agents, compensation is given out based on the rankings. In other words, if the Royals decided not to pick up the option and offer arbitration in the hopes of picking up a first rounder, but the Yankees then proceeded to sign Cliff Lee, A.J. Pierzynski, and DeJesus, the Royals would get the Yanks’ third round pick (in addition to the sandwich pick) instead of the first rounder. That’s exactly what happened to the Jays two years ago when the Yankees signed Burnett, Teixeira, and Sabathia in the same offseason. That obviously significantly decreases the value of the theoretical compensation package.
That’s a great point about the Blue Jays and another reason why the whole compensation system needs to be changed. Maybe let the Blue Jays, for example, pick a player out of the Yankees farm system rather than screwing them with getting the lowest compensation pick. Don’t know how it would be set up, maybe doing it like its done when expansion teams come into the league. A team, the Yankees in this case, protects so many players and then the Blue Jays could take anyone else. Got to be better than what is done right now. And don’t even get me started about teams getting multiple supplemental picks after the first round. That is what is really ridiculous!
A couple of other things to consider:
The value of those draft picks isn’t going anywhere. If the Royals exercise his option this offseason, and keep him through 2011, they can just take the compensatory draft picks when there is ZERO surplus left on his contract. This is pretty much always the case for players worth more than the value of any option that they may have on a contract.
Also, the Elias rankings are based on the last two years of a player’s service time. DeJesus had a pretty mediocre 2009 by his standards, and missed a little time with injury if I’m not mistaken. Given his outbreak this season, and the projections for his future production, it’s probably a good idea to bet on DeJesus having a better 2011 than 2009. This means that the likelihood of DeJesus getting the Royals that first-rounder as compensation (as opposed to the lower rounds of which Ben warned us) goes up if we keep him for a season longer.
There is one reason, and one reason only, not to exercise his option if you are the Kansas City Royals: you have already traded him.
My question is, trade him for who? A good but “non-elite prospect” (and I agree that this is likely what he’d net you) is basically a younger version of Dejesus. It’s actually worse: it’s a young player with Dejesus’ ceiling that COULD turn out to be as good as DDJ if the wind blows correctly. So now you have to wait a few years for that guy to develop–it took DDJ a little while to reach his current level. Why trade for a guy like that when you already have him? Forget about losing compensatory picks for a second; I’m not sure I’d do the trade straight up (without the picks factored in).
Also, don’t assume Dayton Moore and Co. have already punted the 2011 season. Moore is a guy who is probably on the hot seat, or least getting closer to it. 100 losses in 2011 likely costs him his job. If you’re going to have a shot at .500 or better in ’011, you need Dejesus.
Yeah, when I write these articles I mostly assume people are doing the “Right thing,” otherwise I have to speculate on mindsets and stuff like that and things get really nebulous and mushy — I don’t have the kind of insider access to do that stuff, and I don’t really enjoy it anyway.
But keep in ind it isn’t just getting a guy who is another DDJ (or maybe not quite as good, but at least an average major league regular): they control him for 6 years, and for the first part of that at league minimum salary. That’s a really big thing going forward, and frees them up to make other moves. DDJ probably isn’t going to be in KC after 2011, and barring a Honus Wagner-esque aging curve, won’t be nearly as good as he is now.
Lost in all this is the possibility of inking a new deal and keeping DDJ around KC for a while. As a Royals fan, this is the most attractive option barring Ned Coletti or Omar Minaya getting involved. He’s said that he wants to stay, so it’s not out of the question that we’d get a hometown discount.
Could the Royals have DDJ over the next five or so years at 7/8 per? If so, I’d take that.
I may say also composing a modest “bait” application may possibly assist.