Why in the world would they build a park MORE cavernous than Shea? (For that matter, I don’t see why teams don’t adjust the fences season by season to match their team composition…)

That’s the ticket – his real name is “David Sí.”

Unless he continues to develop more power (not out of the realm of possibility at his age), or plays somewhere else, his 30 HR days are probably over. His track record from 2007-2008 shows that a significant amount of his homeruns barely clear the wall. His home park plays 25-30 feet farther back than previously. That is a significant drag on the power.

Look at Wright’s 2nd half of 2008 for his downside risk. It’s considerable. If he corrects his approach, he’ll be a .300 hitter, and a 15-20+ HR guy with 25+ SB for a few more years. There is significant value in that. But his downside risk is greater than it was. Bearing that in mind, I have him ranked as the fifth best 3rd baseman behind ARod, Longoria, Zimmerman, and Reynolds. Of course your league’s scoring system can affect that as well. In my “experts only” (self proclaimed) dynasty league (which has 12 offensive categories, and as such downplays the SB factor) Wright probably ranks behind Sandoval and possibly even Michael Young (depending on whether you are competing for the title this next year or not).

In a yearly league, I probably don’t draft Wright in in the first 3-4 rounds. In an auction league, I let someone else bid full value for him. It’s all about value, and he’s not a good value right now, unless you draft him later or pay a bargain price for him.

I think it could also be mental. Greg Rybarczyk of Hit Tracker noted that 9 of Wright’s 33 HR in 2008 were either “barely enough” (cleared the fence by 10 feet or less) or “lucky” (would not have cleared the fence without the aid or wind or other conditions on a 70 degree day, and that his average HR distance was 399 feet. And accoring to Marc Normandin of ESPN prior to the 2009, the Citifield fences would play 20-30 feet farther in the power alleys and center field because of dimensions and wall height. It seems pretty easy to conclude that Wright, more than other power hitters who hit longer HR’s, would be affected significantly by the home ballpark. Wright’s not dumb – he can see that it takes more to hit it out. I think it is possible that Wright, as an all-star middle of the order bat has been gearing up to hit the ball farther, wanting to live up to his past successes, and of course wanting to help his team win. The plate approach was affected, with less contact. It is also probable that increased effort to launch HR’s led to the very mechanical problems that Dave alluded to.

Huh?

A neutral park is just that – neutral…To me, a neutral ballpark is not a selling point for either hitters or pitchers, and neither does it hurt you. If it’s nuetral and you try to sell it to a hitter, the agent can respond that there is probably 10 parks that are better hitting environments. Same thing if you try to sell a nuetral park to pitcher. The Mets will sell New York, ability to spend money, etc…and park, if it is in fact neutral, won’t hurt.

Not sure if its neutral anyway. Somebody earlier commented that the sample size is still small enough to not yet draw conclusions, especially given the makeup of this year’s Mets and their injuries. It seems that just from the dimensions it should play much tougher in terms of hitting homeruns. We’ll know more in 2 more years.

Citi Field was incorrectly characterized as a pitcher’s park based on a 2-month sample (April/May) when balls were dying there. But through the summer, the ball flew out. It should be a fair park for pitchers and hitters, and the Mets can use it as a selling point for both potential pitcher and hitter signings.

Lacking any other explanation, I have to think he’s as likely to hit 30 as he is 10 next year. Have him ranked 8th overall right now for 2010. Might move down depending on the lineup around him.