Defense Hits The Market
This upcoming free agent class has generally been derided as one of the weaker groups in recent history. After seeing the likes of CC Sabathia and Derek Lowe hit the market last winter, this group lacks the same pizazz. However, there is one area where this group of free agents is particularly strong – defense. Those in the market for premium defensive players will have a lot of options this winter.
Need a second baseman? Placido Polanco is arguably the best defensive player at the position in baseball. Felipe Lopez can field the position fairly well, too.
Shortstop? Jack Wilson, again perhaps the best defender at the position in the game, may be available (if the Mariners don’t pick up his pricey $8.6 million option). Even if Wilson doesn’t hit the market, Adam Everett will be available.
Third base is more loaded than any others. Adrian Beltre, Chone Figgins, Pedro Feliz, and Joe Crede are among the very best glove guys in the game at the hot corner.
How about the outfield? Mike Cameron, Randy Winn, and CoCo Crisp (assuming KC turns down his option) will be available.
That is a lot of premium defenders all hitting the market at the same time. Last year, we saw a glut of players with the opposite skillset – big power hitters who belong at DH. Teams forced those guys to take huge pay cuts, though it’s tough to determine how much of that was the recession and how much was a new appreciation for defense.
This winter will be a better test. Defense has been remarkably undervalued for the last decade or so, but it’s making a comeback, thanks to the successes of teams like Tampa Bay and Seattle. With a surplus of elite defenders all becoming free agent eligible at the same time, we’ll get a better view of just how much the value of defense has shifted in the eyes of major league baseball teams.
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Is it a certainty that the Rays pick up the $10 mil Crawford option? I could’ve sworn he’d hit the FA market 3 weeks ago.
I have no doubt they’ll exercise the option. Even if they don’t think they can afford it, they can pick up the option then trade him. Crawford on a one-year, $10 million contract will be attractive to a lot of teams.
True, and a proven prospect > Type A compensation pick.
Last 3 years, Utley has been ~26 runs better than Polanco, under either UZR or Plus/Minus. Just sayin’.
Right you are. Utley’s defensive numbers have been obscene the past few years.
Current Holy Trinity of baseballing: Pujols, Mauer, Utley
and yet, I always have to point it out to some people, and apparently dave cameron as well, that Utley is the best second baseman in baseball defensivly as well. I’ve been to soooo many phillies sites that talk about moving him to first base in a few years.
It’s Philly, where Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins have become stars and don’t seem to notice how much Utley’s outperformed them.
There’s a big DH market this season too:
Abreu
Matsui
Vlad Guerrero
Thome
Delgado
+
Giambi?
Sheffield?
I can only assume that you mean “big DH market” to mean that the guys are large, physically. Those guys look to me like they’re going to generate a lot of days on the DL, and some below average DHing. Is there anybody in that group you’d give a multi-year deal to? Or anybody you’d even want to give a large single-year deal to?
I’m sure there are a lot of teams who would be happy with Vlad as a DH for next year…
you should probably add Aubrey Huff to that list, Joe.
it’s a shame that Crede has those chronic back problems – he would be a perfect fit for the Orioles, as a stopgap until Josh Bell (hopefully) reaches the majors.
Third base is the toughest position Baltimore needs to fill. I’m hoping Angelos opens his purse and gets them Figgins or at least Beltre. Failing this, I think it’s worth pursuing Crede – they just have to make sure they don’t overpay. I don’t think there will be much of a demand for Huff. He’ll end up in Pittsburgh, KC, or some other undesirable location.
Although he’s more valuable as a secondbaseman, Polanco has shown that he can play a decent third base. I could see Baltimore signing him to play there.
If I’m a GM this winter, I’m looking to sign Beltre on the cheap.
I hope the tigers resign my big headed buddy… I really think they will, allowing Sizemore a little more time to get ready…
Endy Chavez is a FA this winter as well.
I remain skeptical of the notion that Winn is a good fielder. I am not convinced that UZR can adequately adjust for the shape of the outfield fence in Pac-Bell. Do we have a home/road breakout for Winn’s fielding?
Total Zone does (at Baseball-Reference). He hasn’t been any better at Pac-Bell than on the road according to that.
I believe that Joe Crede spoke of his intentions to retire when he was shut down for the rest of the season a couple months ago.
“This winter will be a better test. Defense has been remarkably undervalued for the last decade or so, but it’s making a comeback, thanks to the successes of teams like Tampa Bay and Seattle.”
Um. Yeah, so Tampa Bay could reasonably be defined as a success, but I’m not sure what part of Seattle’s performance you’re referring to when you group them together. Last playoff appearance was 01. Just saying.
Um, did you pay attention to this year?
Relative success, I guess. They turned one of the worst defenses in baseball into one of the best in one year, like the Rays did the previous year, and it showed in the standings. And they went from losing 101 games to (most likely) finishing above .500 in one year by focusing on run prevention. (Though the M’s have outperformed their Pythag by a good deal.)
The M’s obviously still have flaws, but they got considerably better and didn’t pay much to do so, because defense is still undervalued. That’s what I got out of Dave’s sentence, at least.
The M’s haven’t outperformed their Pythag as much as you’d think from first glance: look at the BP 2nd and 3rd order wins which are a much better approximation. The Mariners are only a couple of games above where they should be; the Angels are the AL West team that has overachieved the most this year.
A ~20 win improvement over the previous year (even if that was somewhat exaggerated when compared via Pythagorean expectation) in the first year of an all-new front office would be considered a success by most observers, I would think. Of course, those are the “easy” wins, but the improvement is real and much of it is due to improved defense (RS is slightly down — 3.9/g vs 4.1 last year — but RA has dropped much more: 4.3/g vs 5.0 last year).
They dump the old, terrible guy, bring in the more SABR-inclined guy, team goes from laughing stock to above .500 team in a year.
Sounds like a pretty good first year of work IMO.
That’s results oriented thinking, so not really the best way to evaluate the situation. But still, a good year.
The Phillies will most definitely pick up Pedro Feliz’ option.
yeah, they pretty much have to. they have no other way of filling that gap unless they can sign beltre or something.
It seemed like last offseason, as teams weren’t opening up the checkbooks for all-hit no-field guys, neither were they putting much value on premium defenders who couldn’t also hit. Even a couple of the players listed in this post were free agents last year and are free agents again this year because they weren’t valued highly enough to get multi-year deals (including Felipe Lopez, who probably has at least as much value in his bat as in his glove, and who has a long history of being a subpar middle infielder before this year, so I’m not sure he really belongs on this list).
Crede signed a $2.5 million bargain contract a year ago and has put up very similar value and playing time this year to last. Adam Everett got a $1 million deal. Omar Vizquel signed a minor league deal. The perceived cuts in spending on good-hitting butchers didn’t seem to be accompanied by much increased spending on light-hitting glovesmen. The ones who were on the market were still undervalued.
I’m not saying teams haven’t changed how they value defense, but if $7.8 million for one year (the difference between Wilson’s option and his buyout) is considered pricey for a premium defensive shortstop like Jack Wilson who has been pretty close to league average over the past few years despite a weak bat, even for a team that values defense highly like Seattle, then are teams really valuing defensive value as much as offensive value? This year should be a better test, but the indications so far aren’t as strong as just looking at the market for hitters last year and speculating it’s because of a major shift in defensive valuation, especially if you’re still not expecting Jack Wilson’s option to be picked up.