David DeJesus and Dayton’s Destiny
In the aftermath of the Teahen-for-Getz-and-Fields trade, there is a rumor that the Royals see Fields as an option in left field, and are exploring the trade market for David DeJesus. Fields’ abilities aside, they should be.
Many probably think of DeJesus as a player who is good… for the Royals. He no longer has the range to play CF well, and he doesn’t hit as one usually expects from a left fielder. Maybe that’s why so many people who should know better say things like “DeJesus is a fourth outfielder on a good team.” Those people should be embarrassed.
Here are three-year WAR totals for five outfielders from 2007-2009: 9.2, 8.9, 8.7, 7.4, 6.5. Without looking, who are these players?
In order: Torii Hunter, Johnny Damon, David DeJesus, Andre Ethier, and Jason Bay.
That’s right, over the last three seasons, DeJesus has been practically equal in value to Hunter (whose overrated-ness is seriously underrated) and Damon (just plain overrated); DeJesus has been more valuable than Ethier and Jason “Do People Seriously Think I’m Anywhere Close to as Good as Matt Holliday?” Bay. All five are good, but would DeJesus ever be offered a 5/$90M deal? Would his agent ever compare him to Derek Jeter? Would anyone bother comparing DeJesus to Holliday? Would you take anyone seriously who said that “Ethier is a fourth outfielder on a good team?”
Take Bay, one of the alleged prizes of the free agent crop. I have him as about a 2.5-3 WAR player next season — decent. As for DeJesus, I have him as about a +10 fielder and a +6 hitter — so he’s also right in that 2.5-3 WAR area. Maybe Bay’s closer to 3 and DDJ’s closer to 2.5, but think about this: could you get Jason Bay for 2/$10.7M? Because that’s all DeJesus is going to cost if a team picks up his 2011 option. In other words, teams contending now in and in need of a left fielder would do well to look into DeJesus — he’s likely to be worth at least twice as what he’s paid, and he’s just about as good as the far more expensive options on the open market.
On the Royals’ end, Dayton Moore has spent the last year or two ensuring that he has to be brought up in any “worst GM” conversation. He might finally be doing what he should have done three years ago — trading older assets that are unlikely to be with the Royals (or shouldn’t be) when they have a chance at contending. Whether or not Moore knows what DeJesus and his contract are worth in the young talent the Royals should be pursuing is one (big) question; whether he is able to identify such players is another. It’s potentially a step in the right direction. If Moore can find another team willing to give up appropriate talent, this could be a good move for both teams.
Maybe then smart Royals fans would be a bit more willing to put aside their lust for instant gratification and Trust the Process™.
And maybe, just maybe, Omar Minaya might be all alone at the bottom of the pile.
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this site puts wayyy to much emphasis on defense… It is pretty obvious that dejesus is LESS then those players… but cause of this overrated stat called WAR, stupid people can make dumb arguments that someone like david dejesus is more valuable then Jason bay and Andre Ethier…
Matthew – meet Jack Zduriencik. Jack begs to differ.
Obviously if Jack Z., who needs a left fielder, really believes that defense is that important he will be willing to part with a package starting with Aumont for DeJesus. Dayton will be waiting by the phone…
Why isn’t what teams are actually willing to pay for players both on the open market and in trades a metric that should be considered in the analysis? Or is the WAR hypothesis that the market it always wrong?
ehh, why bother?
The large difference between those people and you, is that those people have evidence to back up their beliefs. You just have your opinions.
see, commenting here wasn’t so bad…
Run-on sentences and random caps=ethos. I think you’ve inspired a new metric: PN/P. It’s called proper nouns(on a per player basis). My rudimentary count has dejesus(sic) as .0(below replacement level!) bay(sic) at .5 and Ethier at 1.000. I don’t have the league or park adjustments handy but clearly Ethier is the best, regardless of his inability to field balls hit near or at him.
actually if you do some homework you could find studies as solid as gravity that show defense is not even given enough credit here.
George McFly is concerned for Dayton’s density also.
DeJesus’s contract doesn’t seem that desirable to me, though. It doesn’t seem like he is that underpaid, so how much should a team really be willing to give up to get him?
Greg — how is he not underpaid? If DeJesus’ option is picked up for 2011, he’ll be paid $10.7M over two years.
Assuming a conservative $4.5M per WAR, and also if we take DDJ to be o the low-end of the value range I laid out at 2.5, then we’d expecft him to be worht $11.7M in 2010 alone, add in a generic decline curve and account for salary inflation a la Tango and he’s be worth $22.4M over the next two seasons — that’s about $11M in surplus. I’d say that’s significant. And it’s worth a decent prospect. For one way of sorting out what kind of prospect it would be worth, check:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/3/777412/al-west-farm-system-values
Or, a team could just sign Jason Bay for 3/$36 or whatever…
You’re right… I was thinking he was making closer to ten million a year, I need to read things more closely. You FanGraphs writers jump on me when I don’t.
I think us Royal fans might be the only ones that get the 3/$36 reference, if indeed, that is what you were going for. :)
1. Matt- I’m confused. In the opening paragraph you say the Royals should be exploring the trade market for DeJesus, but then you go on to show he’s one of the more underrated players out there. You don’t trade underrated players, since you’re likely to lose value. You trade overrated players. Buy low, sell high. Or is there some sarcasm in the first paragraph that I’m just missing?
2. With regard to the defense comment, I’m also a bit perplexed by how this site values defense. You guys acknowledge that UZR must be looked at over a three year sample size (High’s and Low’s 2007-09) to be comparable to wOBA and other offensive stats, yet in other instances you’ll rush to defend Franklin Gutierrez as being a better player than Miguel Cabrera over the past season because of his higher WAR (see comments section of this ), despite FG’s being completely hinged on defense and Cabrera’s on offense. Shouldn’t we weight defensive runs as one-third offensive ones?
The “see the comments section of this” is a hyperlink. Forgot to boldface “this”. It’s the “WAR: It Works” article…
Logan — real quick, I’m sorta busy with real life at the moment.
First, keep in mind that I don’t speak for the site as a whole or the other authors, just myself.
I know the post was a bit diffuse. I do think DDJ is underrated, and, true, that might make it harder to get good value for him when trading with less enlightened teams (fortuneatley, they don’t have to trade with the Royals, because.. D’oh!). It’s hard to get everything in in ~500 words, and what was I going to do, pass up jokes at Jason Bay or Johnny Damon’s expense (winky face)?
I should have made it more clear that they should be _trying_ to trade him. Obviously, you only trade for appropriate value. DeJesus is a decent player, and the Royals aren’t going to be contending soon (and barring some miracle, definitely not during his contract), so they should be actively seeing what they can get for him.
As far as defense… that’s a bigger question that others can answer more clearly. I’m not the expert, and again, I can’t speak for the site or for UZR (and MGL is The Man there). Having said that, we should distinguish between the estimation of how much a player was “worth” defensively in a particular year, which comes from a system which estimates the linear weight of each particular kind of play in a particular zone, and then the estimation of a player’s true talent, which involves multiple years of data and with defense hopefully some scouting information.
I know I obscured things a bit by jumping around. I was making a general point with multiple years of WAR data to show the company DDJ’s been in; I got the 2.5-3 WAR projection for him using multiple years of regressed data for both offense and defense for him.
Thanks for reading and commenting! Back to work for me.
A run is a run, value-wise. You’re talking about the difference between using statistics to value a past season vs. predicting a future season. Valuing last season FG had more value than Cabrera. Going forward, FG’s defense will get regressed some in predictive tools, due to the unstable nature of UZR. However, in the simplistic view, a run is a run, no matter which end it comes on (if you want to get technical, I believe there are studies suggesting somewhere that a run prevented is slightly more valuable than a run produced).
A run prevented is worth significantly more than a run scored towards winning based on several studies I have read.
link?
Matt, I’m kinda wondering how exactly Johnny Damon is “just plain overrated”. His 3-year WAR is 22nd among all OFers, which I’d guess is just about where most people would consider him, if not lower. And his “value” over that span has been $39.3 million. You know how much he’s made in salary during that span? $39 million. Seems to me like Johnny Damon is pretty fairly rated, if you ask anybody besides Scott Boras…
WOULD YOU GUYS STOP MAKING SUCH SMART COMMENTS, I’M TRYING TO GET STUFF DONE
[Note: Do not stop making comments. This is sarcasm. My entire sense of self-worth depends on how much attention my stupid posts get. I'll just fail at real life.]
Tom — I guess it depends on what you mean by “overrated.” Note that I didn’t say “overpaid.” I guess I meant in the sense that Damon’s often talked about as if he’s a “great” player or something. I suppose there is a potential tension in my article between saying that DDJ’s is a good player, he’s as good as Group X of OFs, then saying that Group X isn’t as good as people think. I guess I’m somewhere in the middle — thsoe players aren’t as good as people think, but they’re decent. David DeJesus is better than people think, not great, but just as good as these other guys.
Or something.
I think most would lump Damon into the overrated category.
I certainly agree that DeJesus doesn’t get the recognition he deserves for being a pretty solid player. I was listening to sports radio here in NYC in my car the other day (mistake #1 on my part) and a Mets fan suggested the Mets should take a look at David DeJesus. I thought it was a pretty reasonable suggestion. The host of the show (Mike Francesa) flipped his lid talking about how DeJesus is not the answer for the Mets, how nothing he’s done in his career counts since he did it for the Royals, etc. It was pretty ridiculous, and probably indicative of the general public’s opinion of a player like DeJesus
I think Damon (salary/war) is one of many examples that FOs aren’t as dumb as most of us think, if we take this much time/pride in knowing and analyizing advanced statistics, who’s to say that people that do this for a living don’t?
Actually, as I understand this sort of analysis derived from Tango, for the most part, we _should_ expect FOs to pay market price. It’s based on the average expected cost of a marginal win. So signing a player for the his market value isn’t dumb.
On the other hand, it isn’t particularly smart (for most teams), either, since paying “average” price only gives you average efficiency, and for most teams (other than the Yankees and maybe the Red Sox), you need to get _more_ than your dollars’ worth to get ahead of your competitors. And the way teams are holding on to prospects and other young cost-controlled talent shows that teams are getting wiser to this every year.
…for the most part.
Good point(s). To make the difference up between salary discrepancy you need to be ahead of the curve value wise or you will get chewed up – especially for my Jays in the AL East. Exactly the premise of the moneyball philosophy really.
Because I’m bored and it’s early in the morning:
http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/8940/theprocess.jpg
I really love that the theme of fangraphs this offseason is “Look how many players are better than Jason Bay”. Just when I was starting to think it would be ok to look at ESPN and sites like Fangraphs and USSM, you guys strike that down with ESPN posting a “Jason Bay is clearly better than Matt Holiday” article followed by a “Jason Bay sucks, Even Mike Cameron and DDJ are better than him” articles here. Really fun stuff, and interesting how Jason Bay plays perfectly into the if you use the wrong stats he’s great, if you use the good ones you find out he’s awful.
This article really makes me want DDJ playing left for the M’s, we can just trade the Royals back what we got for Yuni, they might bite.
To be fair, I don’t think Bay sucks. I just think that Cameron is better and DDJ is almost as good (and both of those guys will be cheaper).
And, yes, I’m sure that Jack Z.’s assistant (and probably every other GM’s assistant [to the general manager?] in baseball) has strict orders to put Dayton Moore through at any time day or night.
(Sigh)
I’m pretty sure its not just baseball GMs.
By the way, I meant that MIKE Cameron is better than Bay as a player overall.
Although DAVE probably is almos as good in the field as Bay.
i am glad you cleared this up, for a minute i thought you were comparing big-budget movie directors.
in which case, the conclusion still holds. Cameron > Bay.
I really love that the theme of fangraphs this offseason is “Look how many players are better than Jason Bay”.
He’s the new Jim Rice!
nobody fears Canadians.
Can I introduce you to some hockey players who would enjoy changing your mind?
Oh, and then there’s the pig-farmer serial killers….
Defense is weighted too heavy in WAR but not by much considering the number of opportunities on both sides of the ball.
Also he’s playing LF which makes it easier for him to have a positive uzr comparatively…. knocks his value a bit especially since most LF hit much better.
The terrible thing is that Dayton is, without a doubt, NOT in the group of people who understand DDJ’s value. He’s been trying to solve the non-DeJesus problem for three years now.
Expect Horribleness, the Dayton Moore Story, as told to Chuck LaMar, with a special foreward by Buzz Bissinger.
Matt, putting up Jason Bay’s 3-Season WAR is really a bit of cherry picking considering it takes into account his dismal .1 WAR 2007 campaign, which is a clear outlier in his career. Over the past 2 seasons it goes Damon 6.6 (coincedentally, 2 of his best seasons yet), Bay 6.4, Hunter 6.1, DeJesus 5.9, and Ethier 5.9.
Plus, a competetive team that has a lot of money should be looking for the best player, not the biggest bargain (in this context anyway, assuming pay for the better player is within reason). David DeJesus could be worth $10 mil less than he will get paid over the next 2 years, but if Bay is worth half a win more each season, why would you suggest that a competetive team go for DeJesus instead, unless that team has severe payroll constraints?
because saving money in one place allows money to be spent elsewhere. how many teams aren’t interested in starting pitching?
Ding Ding Ding.
Hypothetical situation:
A team has two needs, a LF and a SS. There’s two LF’s and two SS’s available.
LF1 can be reasonably expected to add 3.5 wins to their team’s total over a minor leaguer, LF2, about 3.
SS1 can be reasonably expected to add about 3 wins, SS2, 2.5
LF1 can get $15 mil / yr, LF2, $6 mil / yr
SS1 wants $12 mil / yr, SS2 $10 mil / yr
LF1 + SS2 = 6 wins = $25 million
LF2 + SS1 = 6 wins = $18 million
Same result, $7 million a year saved to upgrade again when needed.
Does the team have needs other than LF? If so, getting a player that will contribute a little less for a lot less money will allow the team to spend more at other positions.
Of course, you have to factor in who you’re giving up in the trade. If you save some money on DDJ over Bay you’ll have to give up a prospect that has a chance to produce a lot for very little money during his cost-controlled years (or, of course, that prospect might bust). That’s not so different than the draft picks involved in signing free agents, but it’s a little more concrete.
Matt your argument does not make sense to me at all. Dejesus is probably the best everyday player on KC and certainly one of the best all round deals in baseball!!!! If KC ever hopes to be able to WIN consistently at a profit they need a team of Dejesus’ to win because they do not have the revenues needed to pay players fairly. Guys this underrated are hard to come by. Plus, being underrated means he probably wont return his own value in trade. I would NEVER EVER TRADE DEJESUS if I was KC. I would trade and sign every Dejesus I could find and negotiate an extension for a year or two on his current deal.
Another place where your logic is off, you do not seem to understand that every win has a positive long term relationship to team revenues. It matters for attendance and memorabilia sales long term if a team wins 59 or 60 during the current season. So teams that punt a season are hurting their long term profits (one of the main reasons why the Pirates have sucked for so long is they have really badly damaged their long term profits by sacrificing the present for the future). A team should play most every season to maximize current wins (not future wins) and only trade overrated and/or expensive players if they expect to Max long term returns. KC has punted for so long they really need to win 81 games next year to increase long term revenues to make it affordable to buy better players 3 to 4 years from now. 81 is reasonable for them to pull off if they are smart (if). Winning 81 games next year matters more to long term revenues than a good chance to win 90 games 4 years from now. Trading Dejesus would be a huge mistake!
I don’t the revenue differences matter much between 55 and 70 wins. The general public attitude is the mostly the same, “the Royals suck”.
I do agree with what you are saying about DeJesus however. If the Royals trade him, they might as well also trade Soria and Meche and maybe Greinke. If you are going to rebuild, actually rebuild.
Or be like the Marlins and perpetually rebuild.
I DO think they should trade Meche, although he doesn’t have much surplus (and thus trade) value above his contract at this point. They should probably be looking to trade Soria, too. Anyone, really, if they can get appropriate value back in players that will be around when they can contend — at this point, it’s not clear there’ s any fair trade a team would be willing to do for Greinke.
but this piece is just about DDJ.
Well, I’ve got a new LF candidate for the Cardinals to start pimping. Thanks for the good information!
I agree with RM in that those were some cherry picked results. A 3.0 WAR season would represent the second lowest full season WAR of his career (I’m willing to pretend 2007 did not happen). While DeJesus should conceivably be a superior player then 2.5 I think anticipating higher then 3.0 is rather generous. Whereas Bay has the ability to do so.
I see this as a similar situation to what happened in Cleveland with Dellucci and in Tampa with Burrell. While both clubs were playing within their limits, they were knowingly getting a lesser, but comparable player to what was available (Dellucci with Guillen and Burrell with Dunn).
This is a move that a team like the Sox can afford to make, as they are a playoff team anyways, but this isn’t a move for a fringey team to make.
Short reply: you are willing to “pretend 2007 did not happen” and I’m the one who’s cherry picking.
The 2007-2009 WAR totals are what they are, and make a general point. Myh projections are crude, but weight each season appropriately by PA and age adjustments, and on defense I include the fans scouting report, which is considerably nicer to Bay than UZR.
Pointing out and leaving out certain seasons as “outliers” is the definition of cherry-picking. It’s also circular, since what we’re trying to do determine by the weighted averages, etc., is the players true talent, and the picking out years as “outliers” assumes that we already know what that true talent is.
I said before that DeJesus was a good player and people looked at me like a crazyperson. He could definitely be a cheap solution for a team that needs a corner OF.
BTW, speaking of Torii Hunter, the Silver Slugger award really outdid itself this year. Ichiro over Choo and Drew at RF? Okay on 2nd look, Hunter did deserve the SS vs. other CF’s. But I thought at least hitting valuation had left the dark ages of batting average. Guess not.
And I don’t think anyone argues DeJesus is better than Bay (even though DeJesus has a higher 3 year WAR value, that’s mostly due to Bay’s wasted ‘07 campaign).
What people WILL argue, is that DeJesus is a more cost-efficient guy to have, giving whatever team has him the flexibility to sign better players at other spots. Take, say, the Red Sox. Maybe instead of throwing all their resources to sign Bay, you use a cheaper option at LF (even though it’s hard to argue, in my opinion, to trade when you can sign someone), and then use the saved resources to improve at another need, like SS.