Comments on: David DeJesus and Dayton’s Destiny

By: Matt Klaassen

Matt Klaassen — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 21:59:04 +0000

see, commenting here wasn’t so bad…

By: Matt Klaassen

Matt Klaassen — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 21:53:26 +0000

I DO think they should trade Meche, although he doesn’t have much surplus (and thus trade) value above his contract at this point. They should probably be looking to trade Soria, too. Anyone, really, if they can get appropriate value back in players that will be around when they can contend — at this point, it’s not clear there’ s any fair trade a team would be willing to do for Greinke.

but this piece is just about DDJ.

By: Matt Klaassen

Matt Klaassen — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 21:44:27 +0000

Short reply: you are willing to “pretend 2007 did not happen” and I’m the one who’s cherry picking.

The 2007-2009 WAR totals are what they are, and make a general point. Myh projections are crude, but weight each season appropriately by PA and age adjustments, and on defense I include the fans scouting report, which is considerably nicer to Bay than UZR.

Pointing out and leaving out certain seasons as “outliers” is the definition of cherry-picking. It’s also circular, since what we’re trying to do determine by the weighted averages, etc., is the players true talent, and the picking out years as “outliers” assumes that we already know what that true talent is.

By: Joe R

Joe R — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 21:34:19 +0000

Ding Ding Ding.

Hypothetical situation:

A team has two needs, a LF and a SS. There’s two LF’s and two SS’s available.

LF1 can be reasonably expected to add 3.5 wins to their team’s total over a minor leaguer, LF2, about 3.

SS1 can be reasonably expected to add about 3 wins, SS2, 2.5

LF1 can get $15 mil / yr, LF2, $6 mil / yr
SS1 wants $12 mil / yr, SS2 $10 mil / yr

LF1 + SS2 = 6 wins = $25 million
LF2 + SS1 = 6 wins = $18 million

Same result, $7 million a year saved to upgrade again when needed.

By: joser

joser — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 19:58:19 +0000

Can I introduce you to some hockey players who would enjoy changing your mind?

Oh, and then there’s the pig-farmer serial killers….

By: Joe R

Joe R — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 19:05:53 +0000

Or be like the Marlins and perpetually rebuild.

By: The Hit Dog

The Hit Dog — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 18:38:24 +0000

link?

By: Joe R

Joe R — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 15:53:58 +0000

And I don’t think anyone argues DeJesus is better than Bay (even though DeJesus has a higher 3 year WAR value, that’s mostly due to Bay’s wasted ‘07 campaign).

What people WILL argue, is that DeJesus is a more cost-efficient guy to have, giving whatever team has him the flexibility to sign better players at other spots. Take, say, the Red Sox. Maybe instead of throwing all their resources to sign Bay, you use a cheaper option at LF (even though it’s hard to argue, in my opinion, to trade when you can sign someone), and then use the saved resources to improve at another need, like SS.

By: Joe R

Joe R — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 15:48:32 +0000

I said before that DeJesus was a good player and people looked at me like a crazyperson. He could definitely be a cheap solution for a team that needs a corner OF.

BTW, speaking of Torii Hunter, the Silver Slugger award really outdid itself this year. Ichiro over Choo and Drew at RF? Okay on 2nd look, Hunter did deserve the SS vs. other CF’s. But I thought at least hitting valuation had left the dark ages of batting average. Guess not.

By: Brandon

Brandon — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 10:34:35 +0000

I agree with RM in that those were some cherry picked results. A 3.0 WAR season would represent the second lowest full season WAR of his career (I’m willing to pretend 2007 did not happen). While DeJesus should conceivably be a superior player then 2.5 I think anticipating higher then 3.0 is rather generous. Whereas Bay has the ability to do so.

I see this as a similar situation to what happened in Cleveland with Dellucci and in Tampa with Burrell. While both clubs were playing within their limits, they were knowingly getting a lesser, but comparable player to what was available (Dellucci with Guillen and Burrell with Dunn).

This is a move that a team like the Sox can afford to make, as they are a playoff team anyways, but this isn’t a move for a fringey team to make.