Comments on: Delgado Makes Us All Look Dumb

By: plebify

plebify — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 04:38:18 +0000

Interesante Delgado Makes Us All Look Dumb | FanGraphs Baseball y gracias por la participación! Hola (| Bienvenida | Hi HI) (saltó por primera vez | delimitadas | saltó | omitido) aquí en su sitio, founde el (Google | Yahoo | Bing | ASK). Me gustaría decir "Gracias" por una respuesta muy rápida. Yo no me lo esperaba tan rápido. Usted ha dado mí / nosotros algunos consejos buenos y créanme, es muy apreciado!! Gracias otra vez!! plebify Enviar noticia a mí kimberwhit3@gmail.com

By: tarheelcoach

tarheelcoach — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 01:29:11 +0000

JMHawkins is right on, I think. Remember Delgado was coming off wrist surgery that plagued him all last season. Anyone that has watched him this year knows that early in the season Carlos was just getting flat beat by any good fastball – he just couldn’t turn on the ball anymore. Now, he is staying back and just unloading on pitches – they aren’t beating him with the fastball.
His resurgence is probably due more to good health than anything else.

By: JMHawkins

JMHawkins — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 17:17:16 +0000

I wonder how much injuries can mimic aging. Of course, one of the problems an aging player (or blog commenter, for that matter) has is that injuries take longer to recover from. Maybe Delgado can into the season nursing some minor issue that robbed his power, and he finally got heathy. Isn’t that what we saw with Raul Ibanez last year? Zero power, and a sudden rebound after he recovered from a previously undisclosed shoulder injury.

By: Terry

Terry — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 22:45:18 +0000

I’ve spent the better part of this afternoon thinking about it and I can’t come up with a single scenario where Vidro (aka turbo) would be considered more useful on a baseball field than a typical ballgirl.

By: Ron

Ron — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 03:53:57 +0000

Shea doesn’t take 88 points off your BABIP as is the case with Delgado (.237 home, .325 road since 2006). Give him back those 88 points for which Shea isn’t entirely responsible and his home line transforms from .226/.326/.426 to .290/.381/.507, roughly in line with his .291/.361/.547 road numbers.

By: aweb

aweb — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 00:44:15 +0000

Of course, even players who are done can have hot streaks too. Those who thought Delgado was done based on a bad month aren’t redeeming themselves by saying he’s back after a good one. With his BABIP near career norms now, it’s likely that he’s basically what his season line makes him appear to be – a slightly above average hitter for his position.

Also note with Delgado: he’s been just terrible in Shea, and still great on the road. Career in Shea: .227/.330/.424. Last three years (2006-2008) on the road: .291/.361/.548. Those numbers are bumped up by his great 2006 road season (.998 OPS), but the Home/Road split has been pronounced every year so far in NY.

By: Jandy

Jandy — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 22:47:03 +0000

I assume you are warning yourself for giving up on Turbo so quickly, right? That’s what this is all about.

By: salb918

salb918 — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 22:35:34 +0000

Why would we exclude April, though? That’s thumb-on-scale statistical reasoning. Delgado has hit .254/.334/.467 this year. Tangotiger’s Marcels had him pegged for .265/.349/.485 entering this year. ZiPS said .257/.349/.476. That’s pretty close, and if anything he’s done worse.

Those proclaiming Delgado “done” were going off visual evidence or else misinterpreting the numbers. Trend analysis (e.g. Marcel or any other projection algorithm) considered him “useful.” Unless there’s an injury we don’t know about it, I’m not sure why we would weight the visual evidence so heavily as to consider him cooked.

Given his performance this year, he’s actually done worse than a reasoned analysis of the his last few years’ worth of performance data would suggest. I submit that those proclaiming him “done” fell prey to that most insidious fallacy: an overweighting of recent performance. That’s the most common fallacy in interpreting stats among both MSM writers and statheads. At various times I’ve heard that Jack Cust, Jason Giambi, Oliver Perez, or Justin Verlander were all cooked as major leaguers. Yeah, right!

By: Stos

Stos — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 22:35:13 +0000

Dude, I’m right there with yah. I’ve been one Delgado hating yapper for most of the year now, and I’m totally eating all my words on him now. It’s awesome he’s gotten things going, so I’m happy to eat my words and look like a chump. My guess is, he really disliked Willie’s way of doing things and digs Jerry’s manner out there.

Hopefully the Carlos keeps on truckin’ through the end of the year (and beyond).

By: arbeck

arbeck — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 21:47:24 +0000

Dave,

This is one of the reasons I love your writing so much. When evidence refutes something you previously wrote about, you not only admit it, you usually write a great post explaining why you thought the way you did. If only traditional baseball writers would admit it when they were wrong and work to get better.