Dickerson’s Debut
When the Reds traded away both Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Junior, they needed an outfielder to finish out the season. With studly young prospect Jay Bruce already in the majors, there weren’t any more future stars to take a look at, so they turned to organizational solider Chris Dickerson. The 26-year-old was having a relatively successful season down in Louisville, maintaining his average-across-the-board skillset.
He walked some, but struck out a decent amount too. He had gap power, but not long ball power. He stole some bases, but wasn’t a speed burner. He had the glove of a corner OF, but not the bat of one. And, 2008 was really the first year he’d ever hit well for a sustained period of time. In ’06, he hit .242/.349/.424 as a 24-year-old in Double-A – not exactly showing the makings of a real major league hitter. He improved in Triple-A each of the last two yeras, but still looked more like a career minor leaguer than anything else.
However, when he got to Cincinnati, he decided to mash. After going 3-5 with a double and a home run last night, he’s now hitting .328/.406/.672 in his first 69 major league plate appearances. His walk and strikeout rates are about what we’d have expected, but the power is completely unexpected. 12 of his first 20 hits have gone for extra bases, including four home runs. His ISO of .344 is almost double the .193 mark he was putting up in Louisville.
Now, clearly, Dickerson isn’t this good. That’s not very insightful, however, as simply saying a guy making his ML debut at 26 isn’t the best player in baseball isn’t news to anyone. How good is he?
A quick MLE adjusting his ’08 performance in Louisville to the majors would come out to about .250/.340/.430. Of course, 2008 was his best minor league performance, and so would adjust that down a bit to account for his mediocre previous years. However, his major league at-bats count as well, and obviously serve to make the projection a bit more optimistic.
Overall, I’d say that the above line is about right. He strikes out too much to hit for any kind of average, but he’ll offset it with a solid walk rate and some power. Realistically, a .780 OPS from a guy with a decent glove in the outfield is a pretty nifty role player for a contender and a guy who could start for a lot of bad teams.
Dickerson’s one of the hundreds of guys in the minor leagues who are living, breathing indications of freely available talent – a 16th round pick with a nondescript minor league career who makes some improvements and finds himself as a useful major league player at the age of 26. He didn’t cost anything for the Reds to acquire or develop, and now they’ve got a guy who can fill a hole adequately for several years.
Welcome to the bigs, Chris Dickerson. Looks like we’ll be getting to see you stick around for a while.
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You know that bit where you say “the above line is about right.” well, how do you work out that that line is about right? I would love to be able to look at a guy, his skillset, his previous numbers or whatever and have a go at thinking about what his line might be. I’ve seen you do a simialr thing with pitchers. If you have already written about this in the past please direct me to it. Thanks
The rationale was pretty clearly laid out above.
Where?
In the part with text.
Sorry, I read the text. Please assume until recently I have judged players using solely batting average and era and that I need it carefully explained. Obviously if I understood what I read I wouldn’t have asked, but thanks for your help anyway.
The glove of a corner OF? In 2007 he’s was rated by Baseball America as having the best OF defense in the Reds org. He’s 2nd now to Drew Stubbs, who is in the conversation for best defensive OF in the minors. He’s also the fastest baserunner and best athlete in the organization, if not a particularly superb stealer of bases. I appreciate the devise being used, but the picture was a bit wrong. His glove has always been top notch and the question was always whether or not he could hit for enough average. Given his career .100+ IsoD, an average north of .240 makes him a legit starting CF. He’s struggled to hit lefties throughout his minor league career, which is of some note and could limit him to platoon duty if he doesn’t figure them out.
For a general picture, think Grady Sizemore lite. Similar body, similar skill set, if clearly lesser across the board. PECOTA had him at .240/.320/.410 this year, and he significantly out performed that both in his time AAA and his short stint in the majors (translated line of .249/.345/.432). As we saw with Jay Bruce, I imagine he’ll struggle a bit next season as pitchers learn his weaknesses, but he’s at minimum the LH half of an above average CF platoon. His defense alone should keep him in the majors for the next 6-8 years.
Cincinnati is funny. Dickerson is a stud. Keppinger is a stud. Hairston is a stud. Lopez was a stud. Aurilia is a shortstop. Beane was fleeced when they stole Saarloos from him. Dunn sucks. Phillips is the best second baseman in baseball. Cordero was a great signing because the Reds have money to spend and it will help bring Milwaukee back to them. Freel is a stud with tremendous trade value. Weathers is a closer who can lock down the 8th….. on and on and on and on.
Dickerson is at a maximum the LH half of an above average CF platoon. At maximum….
I think all he meant is that he uses the actual glove of a corner outfielder.
Frankly, Cincinnati needs to figure out a way to move more role players into starting gigs. Fortunately they’ve got three premium spots available (center, short, and catcher) so they’ll not only have plenty of opportunities, they’re opportunities that can maximize the impact the converted role players will have in ’09!
Wohoo!?!