Did The Cardinals Overwork Chris Carpenter?
Given that the injury is now being reported as a hamstring strain, we can be pretty sure that his workload last year didn’t cause this injury. Still, the point of the post stands.
The hits just keep coming for the St. Louis Cardinals, as Chris Carpenter left the mound with the team trainer after throwing 32 pitches today. Following the loss of Adam Wainwright and the devastating blow of Nick Punto‘s absence – as well as some contract talks that might not have gone very well – the Cardinals just can’t afford to keep hemorrhaging talent.
Carpenter, of course, is no stranger to the DL. He’s had both labrum and Tommy John surgery, and essentially missed entire seasons in 2003, 2007, and 2008. Carpenter has an extensive history of arm problems, so today’s news isn’t entirely shocking. That said, when Carpenter has been healthy enough to pitch, he’s been a workhorse. In 2005/2006, he was third in total innings pitched behind only Johan Santana and Brandon Webb. Last year, he threw 235 innings, tied with Dan Haren for the fourth most in baseball.
It would be easy to try and draw a straight line between Carpenter’s workloads and his frequent trips to the disabled list. After all, not many pitchers can consistently throw 230 innings in a season and stay healthy, and Carpenter hasn’t exactly distinguished himself as a unique specimen whose body can withstand the punishment. However, I want to caution against trying to correlate Carpenter’s innings totals and arm problems, because in reality, he doesn’t work nearly as hard as the innings totals might lead you to believe.
In 2005, Carpenter was tied for second in baseball in innings pitched, but finished just 15th in pitches thrown. Because of his efficiency, he actually managed to throw 160 fewer pitches than Noah Lowry despite totaling an additional 37 innings of work that year. Roy Oswalt, who was tied with Carpenter in terms of innings pitched, threw 205 more pitches that year, essentially equivalent to two extra starts.
The next year was even more remarkable. Carpenter was eighth in innings pitched but 37th in pitches thrown. It took Dontrelle Willis nearly 400 extra pitches to throw virtually the same number of innings as Carpenter tossed in 2006.
He did set a career high in pitches last year, but the 3,549 he threw is not an obscene total by any means. Ervin Santana – also working his way back from arm problems – was given a similar workload by the Angels. As far as we know, his arm is not yet hurting this spring.
Could the Cardinals have given Carpenter a reduced workload last year? Sure. Would it have kept him healthy? It’s impossible to know for sure, but Carpenter has managed to end up on the operating table numerous times without ever being worked too heavily in any single season before. Perhaps the Cardinals decision to push him to new levels at age 35 involved some risk, but it was a justifiable risk in the face of a pennant race, and Carpenter was not asked to handle an unreasonable workload.
The guy just gets hurt a lot. The Cardinals decided to maximize the value they could extract from him while he was healthy. I can’t blame them for that, and I don’t think we should accept that the number of innings he has thrown when healthy have contributed to his arm problems. Carpenter’s a highly efficient starting pitcher who simply breaks down regularly, and I don’t know that there’s much that anyone can really do about it.
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Cards fans must be on high alert … all this for a hammy strain? Seriously, they should just trade Pujols to the Phillies for Howard and Blanton already. :)
I assume that Rube gives back the photos he has of Mozeliak offing that hooker in such a scenario too, right?
Nice read. Something I was surprised to not see brought up in the article, that stood out to me when doing my annual fantasy baseball research, was Carpenter’s drop in velocity last year. In 2009 his average fastball velocity was 93.0 MPH (his best mark dating back as far as FanGraphs has listed) and last season it was 91.4 MPH. Toss in that he relied on his SL and CB a jaw dropping 46.9% of the time, and it’s easy to see him breaking down this year. Any thoughts on my observations Dave?
“…the devastating blow of Nick Punto‘s absence”
???
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/joke
+413.
+414…
you don’t realize that’s a joke????????
???
the first eight question marks weren’t enough, you needed some more????????
???
Can this now please be a fangraphs meme????
???
Well, in order to compete for the playoffs without Wainright, the Cards will need to turn in an exceptionally gritty performance this year. Punto has led the league in UGR (ultimate grit rating) for the last 3 seasons, culminating with an MLB record 36.3 in 2010.
(Presumably the primary determinants of UGR would have to be: grass stains on uniform per game, unwillingness to take any guff from opponents, general appearance of hustling, and overall scrappiness.)
The article is a few years old, but some work has already been done in an effort to tangibilize GRIT…
http://www.flotsam-media.com/2007/12/flotsam-data-special-tangiblizing.html
I didn’t realize it was a joke either, mainly because of this FG article:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/true-utility-nick-punto/
which argued that paying him $4.5 million to keep him was a good deal that the Twins passed up on.
Not really — the argument was that Punto was an above-replacement bench player, and some contending team that needed infield backups should pay him two million dollars.
I can’t quite tell if DC was being sarcastic when he said “devasting blow of Nick Punto’s absence.”
I think it was obvious it was a joke. Its not that punto isn’t valuable but its not like they lost a 5 WAR player. I agree people forget Carpenter is very efficient and the Cards are usually careful to keep him from significantly high pitch counts.
The point of this article only still stands if one were willing to write a similar article about anyone who threw similar innings (or more innings) and a similar analysis was done.
I must have missed the “was Halladay (Or King Felix) overworked” article….each of whom has thrown 60 additional innings over Carpenter over the last 2 years…. or even Wainwright who’s thrown 35 more.
I expect the prisoner of the moment articles on ESPN, but I’m surprised to see them here. If it’s not simply this, then the choice of Carpenter is an odd one, when there are 14 pitchers who’ve thrown more innings over the last 2 years and 40 (yes 40) pitchers who’ve thrown more pitches over the last 2 years. (reg season data only)
Carpenter was feeling left out in the headline department.
Dave,
I think we’re going to see more teams pitch their guys a lot when they’re healthy.
I don;t think the correlation between pacing, mechanics, and longevity has been there like we thought it would be.
There’s certainly some good correlation between horrible mechanics and injuries, but not necessarily the other way around.
Being able to endure the workload is as important as being able to hit your spots, or change speeds. Someone’s always to “blame” for a pitcher getting hurt. But, to me, it’s becoming more like football, where some running backs can take the pounding, and some can’t. Teams know this, and run their backs like mad while they’re healthy.
I do think there is some real value in avoiding 120+ pitch games. But, IP is not necessarily the best indicator of “pitching stress”. I think you make some good points stating that. “Types” of pitches also play into. A predominant fastball-changeup pitcher is going to have less stress, all other things equal, than a fastball-slider pitcher.