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In low scoring games, you better be able to advance runners, or better yet have them advance themselves (stealing bases, taking extra bases) to put yourself in more situations where you can score runs while making an out.

A good example is Tommy Herr for the 85 Cardinals, he racked up 100 RBIs with many of them being the rsult of groundballs to second base with Coleman or Ozzie on 3rd.

HRs are always going to have a big impact in regards to immediate scoring, but there greatest value is with runners on base (duh). But, overall, a team’s strategy of home runs in a low scoring environment is probably not good. Home runs generally ar ean indicator of a high scoring environment. A team with HR hitters will also have quite a few doubles. It’s not either or, you either have power hitters or you don’t.

In low scoring environments, getting the leadoff hitter on base is the key, and advancing him. If you’re not going to have guys that are able to walk, then you better have a bunch of ichiros at the top.

Teams with fast players will also see them getting themsevles in scoring position with doubles and triples. That was one of the big keys to Granderson breakout season,where he 20+ triples. He put the team in a situation where he can score on essentially ANY BIP. Hence the value of a high contact guy like POlanco hitting behind him …. the most recent version of “Tommy Herr”.

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2-Players should be picked based on overall contribution, not just one category.

3-With the season almost 2/3 over, they have no double-digit HR hitters. Worse yet, that is not surprising. They took a team that finished last in OPS, and replaced Beltre with Figgins and Branyan with Kotchman. So a team that finished last in OPS by 8 points is now last by 57 points. Again, not surprising.

4-I have no proof, but does anyone else suspect that Figgins and Lopez are having sub-par offensive seasons because they both forced to switch positions?

5-I think Jack Z read too much of his own press clippings last year. They won 85 ‘with defense’, and maybe implied that the offensive side was unimportant. But in the 9 years prior to that, the team that finished last in offense never won more than 75 games, and 8 of the teams won less than 70, and 3 of the teams won less than 60. In fact the average worst offensive team over the past 10 years has had a record of 65-97. Assuming that those teams had at least some defense and pitching, there is no amount of defense and pitching that will make up for AAA offense.

6-TB has the defensive efficiency and the best runs allowed in the league. But if you combined their world-class defense and pitching (3.88 RPG) with the Seattle offense of 3.29, maybe they’d win 75 games.

It’s impossible to completely ignore one facet of the game and expect to win. I still think defense is underrated, but you won’t win by fielding 9 shortstops.

Baseball teams, generally, have similar runs against per game numbers. How many fewer runs per game do the best defensive teams allow, and how many runs do they score?

I’d imagine that the best defensive teams in the game MAY allow a single fewer run per game than the average team. But, they would need to likely score the average number of runs per game to make that advantage pay off in wins, to accumulate enough to “make it worth it”.

“Adding more and more of any one aspect becomes diminishing, since being a great baseball team often requires decent balance amond aspects.”

Is actually true. CC quoted me the BPro chapter, so I guess I’ll accept that.

Adding more and more of any one aspect becomes diminishing, since being a great baseball team often requires decent balance amond aspects.

BP’s book BTN, exmained teams that were “one aspect” heavy and compared them to “more balanced teams”, and most often the balanced teams previaled.

It was in their chapter “Can you have too much pitching?”. The answer to all “Can you have too much XYZ?” questions is “Yes, you cna have too much”, and it’s for the diminishing value factor that’s being discussed here.

They may not be proving that defense is over-valued, but they definately are proving how valuable it is to have a “masher” in the lineup, even if it’s a free-swinging 1B.

FG and the like seemingly undervalue 1B’s since they can be so “easily” replaced (or the sotry goes). Stick anybody at 1B. So, even guys like Ryan Howard and his 45+ HRs per season get viewed at being just “better than average”.

Ichiro and Figgins are getting on base, and stealing bases. What is not happening is someone driving them in. I am no fan of Howard, but put him at 3rd or 4th in that lineup, and chances are he has his usual 130+ RBIs … and that would be 60 more than the number their current RBI leader is on pace to get. 60 runs goes quite a ways to winning games.

This was something I was thinking about the other day:

[1] Most 1Bs hit in the middle of their lineup.
[2] There are so really productive batters at 1B whose overall value doesn’t seem reflected in WAR.
[3] Defense at 1B IMO is poorly evaluated, and well, not that important.

So, basically ALL of a 1B’s value comes with the bat. The difference in fielding between a top 5 fielding 1B and a bottom 5 fielding 1B isn’t going to be “the world”.

So, the difference in the number line (or stat line) for a 4WAR 1B and a 2WAR 1B is going to HUGE, like maybe 20HR and 60RBI type huge. IMO, we should basically look at 1B’s the same way we do a DH (basically).

At their most important offensive positions (1B and 3B), SEA has players with -run value numbers.

While I don;t agree with everything, there’s a BIG reason that players like Ryan Howard have big value. 45 HR 140 RBI players aren’t everywhere, and while I did use counting numbers and a metric that has a team context, I did so because [1] The mariners 1 and 2 hitters are getting on base, and advancing, and [2] Howard takes some of the RBI potential with him where he goes, with those 45 HR. Consider that only half of HRs come with a single runner on base, and his ISO alone brings 78 RBIs.

For example, if you have a great defensive center fielder (Franklin Gutierrez) adding a great defensive left fielder isn’t as valuable, because some of those balls that the better defender in left would get to are caught by the center fielder anyway. Whereas if you’re center fielder is poor defensively, it is more important to have better corner outfielders. The same concept can by applied on the infield between 3B/SS and (to a lesser extent) 2B/1B.