To date, the Reds have allowed 505 runs, the Astros 567, so CAIRO even underestimated the runs allowed differential between the Reds and Astros it seems (the prediction was for 50 runs).

But the xfip of the Astros’ starters is 4.02, the Reds’s starters are at 4.53. The Astro starters’ fip is 3.75, the Reds 4.44.

There is a bullpen differential, but the real difference must be fielding. Reds team UZR is +36.9, Astros -18.5. Carlos Lee, Berkman, Keppinger…yeah, that makes sense.

The Astros indeed appear to have had a better starting staff than the Reds this year. The Reds were just much better fielding the ball (as well as at scoring runs). Janish, Rolen, Phillips, Stubbs. Makes sense.

To get Houston up towards 162 starts based on CHONE, you need to toss 27 Moehler starts up there as well, which brings them to 154 starts from 6 starters. CHONE also projects 22 starts for Volquez. That gets Cincy to 160 starts. That ain’t gonna happen. But if Cairo is expecting about that many starts for Volquez and for Moehler, Houston would be slightly behind in runs allowed per 9 from their starting staffs, with Houston slightly more reliant on its bullpen to make up a slight innings deficit to the Cincy projections.

But that would mean Cincy’s bullpen would still have to be 30-40 runs better.

Cincy won’t get very many Volquez starts this year. He had surgery in August last year, so at best I could see 10-12 starts. Other starts might come from Maloney, etc. And if Houston doesn’t need or have Moehler start more than a few, the bullpen advantage needed by Cincy to get to allow 50 fewer runs than Houston as per CAIRO needs to be a lot.

Cordero over Lyon, agreed. Masset over Lindstrom. Although Gervacio looks promising (check out his ability to get swinging strikes).

All in all, I could see Cincy projecting a little better in run prevention, but 50 runs is quite a lot. I suppose I could go through every pitcher including relievers and see how CHONE projects it.

It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out. Paulino 2009 xfip was way below his e.r.a., for example. More than 2 runs. Be interesting to see if 1) they give him and Norris a starting job over Moehler and 2) if they can keep the homer totals down. Is he really that unlucky on flyball/homer rates, or is he just tossing batting practice some days?

hmm not so sure about that

Wobatus, partly a fielding effect, but I think that a difference in bullpens is entirely possible too. The Reds’ pen is seriously under-rated; they’ve got much the better closer, some decent lefty arms, a couple of good youngsters, and arguably the best set-up-guy-that-nobody-outside-his-family-has-ever-heard-of in Nick Masset.

The ‘Stros will be running out Brandon Lyon’s 4K/9 and Matt Lindstrom’s flyball-pitcher-with-control-issues-in-a-bandbox production in the last couple of innings, which looks like something of a chasm between the two teams.

So if you want to talk about variance, sure- I would not be surprised if the Reds won the division. But if you want to talk about expected performance, I think the Reds still are a middle-of-the-pack club. I actually have not changed my impressions of the Reds from last year very much. I mean, last year their rotation had all these options plus Volquez. I think you have to call that a pretty significant loss, with him being out.

I also don’t really see Rolen as being as much of a difference-maker as the article says. It sounds nice calling him an all-star, but it’s been quite a while since Rolen has been all-star material. He’s an aging, plus 3B.

So I mean…
Rolen, Stubbs, and O. Cabrera in
Encarnation, Taveras, and Volquez out

Even counting Taveras as a minus and Encarnation as so-so, the surplus value from Volquez alone over a season has to be close to what the new acquisitions are adding. So while I see the Reds as improved, I still feel like I’m seeing a very similar team as last year.

The only difference is, last year people were hopeful about the Reds and this year they’re pessimistic since any optimists got burnt last year.

http://gameofinches.blogspot.com/2010/01/why-is-jonny-gomes-unemployed.html