Don’t Neglect the Jakester
Let’s play a little game. Below are seasonal lines for four of the top pitchers in the National League, and I would like you to try and identify the owners while simultaneously deciding which holds the best numbers:
a) 3.04 ERA, 2.96 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 7.60 K/9, 3.33 K/BB, .294 BABIP
b) 2.59 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 9.02 K/9, 3.70 K/BB, .292 BABIP
c) 3.14 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 7.56 K/9, 3.51 K/BB, .303 BABIP
d) 3.28 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 8.77 K/9, 3.69 K/BB, .304 BABIP
All four have earthbound BABIPs so it isn’t to say one has been more or less lucky than another in that area, and each has very solid numbers. While any team should feel safe with any one of these pitchers, I would tend to think that Pitcher B has the best numbers of the group. His WHIP is the lowest, K/9 the highest, K/BB the highest, ERA the lowest, with a higher-but-still-great FIP.
With that in mind, here are the identities:
a) Brandon Webb
b) Jake Peavy
c) Ben Sheets
d) CC Sabathia
Of the four pitching lines above, Jake Peavy arguably has the best numbers, and yet this baseball fan/writer simply has not heard anything about his performance to date. With so many surprise-pitchers like Cliff Lee, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, Ryan Dempster, et al, hogging the headlines and the Padres spending most of the season as cellar-dwellars, the Jakester has seemingly been lost in the shuffle. His 8-7 W-L record does not help him much either; while many of us understand how W-L records are terrible barometers there are many more fans who treat that stat as gospel.
One aspect of Peavy’s performance line due to regress is his strand rate. To date he has allowed very few baserunners and 84.5% of them have been left on base. The league average is around 72% and an absolutely tremendous season may result in a 77-79% rate; sustaining an 84.5% rate just is not very likely. When this does regress, it means more runners will score, which should lessen the gap between his ERA and FIP; however, his numbers will likely still be very, very good.
Plugging him into the in-season Marcel, Peavy is expected to finish off the season with 56 innings over nine starts, walking 17 and fanning 55 batters. His WHIP over the remainder would be an almost-identical 1.14, while his FIP would drop to 3.07. Should this come to fruition, his season would finish like this:
28 GS, 178 IP, 150 H, 50 BB, 177 K, 1.12 WHIP, 2.74 ERA, 3.21 FIP
There are very few pitchers in the league likely to finish with numbers better than that yet nobody seems to be discussing him. Maybe he has the Pujols-syndrome in which everyone expects tremendous numbers and because of that would rather discuss the surprises. That doesn’t seem very fair though. In closing, here are Peavy’s ranks in the NL:
1st, 2.59 ERA
2nd, 3.70 K/BB
2nd, 27.66 BRAA
3rd, 2.75 REW
3rd, 1.12 WHIP
5th, 9.02 K/9
6th, 3.27 FIP
6th, 1.99 WPA/LI
To me, that’s someone who should be getting some recognition, regardless of whether or not his performance level is expected.
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With a guy that has Peavy’s skill pitching in the park that he does I think it is a little more likely that he can maintain the insane LOB rate he has. In 04 he stranded 83.9% while having a BABIP of 310. I know 310 is only a bit above average, but knock 20 points off his BABIP in 04 and he would have had an even higher LOB rate.
We talked about this a week or two ago on one of Dave’s posts, in that even though Peavy is, well, awesome, an 84.5% LOB is utterly ridiculous for a starter. I think that Peavy can well sustain an LOB between 79-81 this year, which would be better than just about everyone else, but an 84.5-85% rate would be a surprise. His BABIP may rise ever so slightly, which could lower his LOB rate ever so slightly as well; but as I mentioned, these regressions would be slight and won’t truly worsen his overall numbers.
Peavy’s a great pitcher, and when I ranked the top ten starters in the majors, he was number 5.
http://hats-for-bats.blogspot.com/2008/08/best-pitchers-in-major-leagues.html
But his 2.54 and 2.59 ERA’s of the past couple years are just not realistic. Last year it was a 5.8% HR/FB rate, now its his LOB%. He hasn’t shown an actual ability to strand runners, as his 77.6 LOB% is right on line with his overall skill and 3.46 FIP.
Right on, Eric. Peavy is (among) the best.
The only reason Peavy hasn’t been recognized is that San Diego hasn’t done much otherwise. Even a pitcher with a 2.00 ERA won’t win if his team doesn’t provide run support.