Comments on: A Dose of Reality for Prospect Watchers

By: JD

JD — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 01:11:00 +0000

I have no idea what “Wins Above Bench” are, but the very word “bench” and the way he judges “busts” implies that a 20 year career as a bench player is a player “busting.” At least that’s how it seems. Wang might be underestimating the value of a player who is simply good enough to be in the majors for an extended period. I have a hard time calling that guy a bust if he’s the 98th ranked prospect.

By: nick

nick — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 00:19:56 +0000

As if I didn’t already feel good about Jason Heyward’s chances in the majors. And to DC Strasburg has a much much higher chance of busting compared to Bumgarner

By: Joe R

Joe R — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 15:57:46 +0000

Calling a 25 year old SS with 369 PA’s “certainly” a bust? That might count as somewhat of a harsh assessment.

By: AndrewYF

AndrewYF — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 15:42:00 +0000

Heh, Jed Lowrie is certainly one. Lars Anderson is on his way to being another.

By: DC

DC — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 01:31:58 +0000

I think one of the factors also rests in how close a guy is to the majors.

For instance, say Bumgarner and Strasburg are the top 2 pitching specs in baseball. I’d say that Strasburg’s chances of busting are lower than Bumgarner simply because he has a shorter path to travel.

And then there’s also the fact that Strasburg is a super beast.

By: Bhaakon

Bhaakon — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 22:58:35 +0000

I don’t know about that. The relatively consistent 30% bust rate for top-50 pitchers suggests to me that the bust rate is essentially the rate of career-altering/ending injuries, and I don’t think there’s any reason to think that a #1 pitching prospect is any more injury proof than #10 or #100. He’s probably much more likely to become a star if he manages to dodge the injury bullet, though.

By: Toffer Peak

Toffer Peak — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 22:10:45 +0000

Well others have shown that the top 1-5 draft picks are significantly better than even 6-10 so these numbers don’t really apply to Strasburg. Particularly since he was the unanimous number one pick and is considered better than the average number one pick at that.

Here’s a good graph showing this: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/06/draft_picks_and.php

By: Toffer Peak

Toffer Peak — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 22:05:01 +0000

I would imagine the proper way to evaluate the systems would be to include them in both ranges.

By: big baby

big baby — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 21:49:19 +0000

yep, i hate bill james. that’s why i come to fangraphs.

By: lexomatic

lexomatic — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 21:41:04 +0000

I emailed him this very question… along with a link to this thread so maybe we get a direct response or i’d be happy to share any response i get to that effect.