Comments on: Down Goes the Price on Wins

By: Braulia

Braulia — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 07:36:59 +0000

Sorry to say all prices may go down but never on games. thaks

By: Tom Au

Tom Au — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 19:48:08 +0000

I (the author of a book, “A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing” that called the 2008 crash) am calling for a “double dip” recession. If I’m right, the value of a marginal win will continue to fall, below $3 million.

By: TerryMc

TerryMc — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 10:35:55 +0000

I lean towards the statiscal anomaly side as things as there wasn’t a real bumper crop of big ticket free agents. There was a few upper tier free agents that were snapped up quickly and later Holliday signed. Was that indicative of the price per win or of the availability of higher value players?

My opinion, it was an odd sample set.

By: Nathaniel Dawson

Nathaniel Dawson — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 23:08:02 +0000

Good point. It certainly seems as if we’re seeing a lot more extensions that buy out FA years than ever before. Also, I think teams are being more cognizant of the value of calling up players later to delay their service clock.

By: Nathaniel Dawson

Nathaniel Dawson — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 22:46:45 +0000

“since Cameron is a TTO guy, a lot of his comps fell off quicker than he has”

Because he’s a better defensive player than most? Or because he keeps himself in better shape than most?

I’m not sure why you would expect other TTO guys to fall off quicker than him.

P.S. (SABR)metrics. I like how you spell it that way.

By: MikeS

MikeS — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 20:22:38 +0000

So, if my 15 year old stats knowledge is correct, the 95% confidence interval is +/- about $2.5M. The error bars overlap. The difference from last year could be due to chance. It may be real, but the small sample size means you don’t know.

By: Linuxit

Linuxit — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 19:49:41 +0000

It’s just that younger potential Free Agents don’t hit the market much anymore. We’re seeing them locked up well past their arbitration eligible years. Most of the Free Agents hitting the market these days are past their prime.

IMO, when calculating value per win, it should include the arbitration class of players that are setting the salaries, such as Josh Johnson, King Felix, and Justin Verlander.

By: Sky Kalkman

Sky Kalkman — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 19:38:27 +0000

If teams find that development is more rewarding than signing free agents and put more money into draft signing bonuses, international signings, and other developmental things (coaches, equipment, technology, analysts), then the money spent on free agents can go down.

By: joser

joser — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 19:29:02 +0000

We kind of saw that with the corner out-fielder market last year, with Raul Ibanez first and everything declining after that. Though that may also have been the first signs of the shift towards valuing defense more highly.

By: Brian Dopirak

Brian Dopirak — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 19:26:56 +0000

Could we just be seeing the effect of the Yankees making so many big-ticket signings last off-season and mostly standing pat this one?