Draft Review: New York Yankees
2008 Draft Slot: 28th overall
Top Pick: Gerrit Cole, RHP, California high school
Best Pick: Brett Marshall, RHP, Texas high school (sixth round)
Keep an Eye On: Corban Joseph, 2B, Tennessee high school (fourth round)
Notes: There is really no way to sugar coat the fact that the Yankees organization had a terrible draft in 2008, which was not helped by the fact that it failed to sign its first pick, as Gerrit Cole opted for college, as well as its second-round pick Scott Bittle, who had injury concerns. Brett Marshall was given an above-slot deal ($800,000) to forgo college after sliding in the draft due to signability concerns.
2007 Draft Slot: 30th overall
Top Pick: Andrew Brackman, RHP, North Carolina State U.
Best Pick: Austin Romine, C, California high school (second round)
Worst Pick: Adam Olbrychowski, RHP, Pepperdine University (fifth round)
Notes: Andrew Brackman was a huge draft talent with a huge question mark as pretty much everyone knew he needed Tommy John surgery, which he underwent before the ink was dry on his first pro contract. Now 23, Brackman is back pitching but in low A-ball. Austin Romine has performed better than expected with the bat so far in his pro career, which will help soften the blow when Jesus Montero has to be moved out from behind the dish.
2006 Draft Slot: 21st overall
Top Pick: Ian Kennedy, RHP, University of Southern California
Best Pick: Joba Chamberlain, RHP, University of Nebraska (supplemental 1st round)
Worst Pick: Colin Curtis, OF, Arizona State University (fourth round)
Notes: In terms of pitching, this is one of the best drafts in recent memory for any team. The club found Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Zach McAllister, George Kontos, Dellin Betances, Mark Melancon, Daniel McCutchen (traded to PIT), and David Robertson.
2009 Draft Slot: 29th overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): Best available talent
MLB Club Need: Relievers, Outfielder, Catcher
Organizational Need: Infielders, Outfielders, Left-handed pitchers
Organizational Strength: Right-handed pitchers, catchers
Notes: The organization will no doubt play its cards close to the chest with the rival Boston Red Sox picking at No. 28. Money should again be no object, and the organization might want to make up for a poor 2008 draft.
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Jesus Montero will catch in the major leagues.
Maybe one or two appearances… sure. I could see that. Probably five passed balls in those two games and eight SBs against… but I could see it… in like, an emergency situation or something. For example, both catchers on the roster get hurt in a game and theyre looking for an emergency catcher and someone mentions Montero used to catch in the low minors. Totally possible.
Have you ever seen him catch? Or are you just basing this off other subjective views? The Yankees have committed to him staying at catcher for the foreseeable future, and he will probably remain there a couple more years, and he certainly will remain there beyond the low minors.
I sure hope so, but based on the non-Yankees organization reports I’ve seen, that’s pretty unlikely.
Romine at C with Montero DHing, though, could work…
Yeah, the only reason to keep Montero at catcher is to convince some team he is a slugging catcher, and not a slugging DH. He’ll prove most valuable in a trade.
He’s not even 20 yet. I think it’s WAY too early to determine whether he can or can’t learn to catch.
Well, every expert would disagree with you, as well as everyone in the Yankee organization who Goldstein has talked to. He’s not a catcher.
Wasn’t Posada still a SS at that age?
What’s the downside of giving him a couple of years to try and learn? If he can hit like it seems he can, he can be a pretty bad defensive catcher, and still stick.
I think the game-calling aspects of the game are learnable. If he can get that down, you can live with a bad throwing arm.
Every expert? Really? Jeez. You have impressive sources… I’m jealous.
Yeah… go look up the minor league reports on this site previously, I listed quotes from Sickels, Law, Goldstein, Manuel and Callis all saying he can’t catch. No chance.
alskor is a Red Sox fan who oddly enough replies to every Yankee centric post.
Only the comments by huge homers.
You’re right. You’re being eminently reasonable in this thread.
In 71 G’s last year Montero had 11 passed balls and a 25% CS. Is that so horrific? Posada has had a near HOF career with a lot of PBs and a 29% CS.
It seems like if he improves a little at those things, call a decent game, and can hit, he can play C.
I think C defense is likely grossly over-rated. Since it can’t be measured, everyone asserts that a C who can’t hit, and is well liked, is a great “handler of pitchers”.
I don’t believe there is a MLB club need for relievers. These are largely the same guys that did very well in 2008 and so far in this infant season there have been significant stretches of perfection mixed with a few bad innings. The manager, like any, needs to figure out how to get the most out of them and depth is supported by the Organizational Strength: Right-handed pitchers.
C’s are the only position, along with P’s, that have some kind of involvement in each and every pitch. They handle the ball on every pitch that isn’t batted and also handle some of those. No other position comes close. C is the only position, bar none, that receives a physical beating on a daily basis. I believe that C defense is grossly underrated and C’s skills of mind and glove are generally unappreciated. Montero can continue to be a C and may become a good one if he wants to put in the work and is willing to take the punishment. I think he does because he has said so, plus it’s a lot of fun! There are ‘experts’ that believe he can do it and the ones that matter, those in the Yankee organization, intend to give him every chance to do what he wants. In addition, predictions by ‘experts’ or otherwise, are typically wrong so we’ll just have to wait several years to see what this 19 year old (he won’t be 20 until Nov) child will grow up to be.
I love it when “unnamed sources” comment on the Yankees. Joba is 100% not a starter. Uh uh. Montero is 100%, definitively not a catcher. Riiight.
Personally, I could see the situation working out like it has with Victor Martinez and the Indians. Montero is a catcher for a few years, albeit bad defense, until someone better comes along and Montero can be moved elsewhere, with no net negative production.
The problem is, that “somewhere else” is already occupied for the next seven and a half years by one Mark Teixeira, and the other “somewhere else” will most likely be occupied by one Alex Rodriguez down the line. The Yankees don’t have too many places to hide bad defenders in the years ahead.
Oh, and it’s not “unnamed sources.” Keith Law and the folks over at BA have been pretty consistently down on Montero’s prospects to stay on the position.
Jim Callis would also hate God if he was wearing pinstripes.
Is it impossible for someone to improve as a catcher? You know, like Kevin Goldstein said the other day? I guess it’s so completely ridiculous to think that he could improve. Or that below average defense at C is OK when you’re getting insane offensive production from that spot.
He’s really bad, though. That’s what KG said, too.
The problem is he’s huge and slow. Its not like he doesnt have the technique down. I believe Ive seen him described two places as “sluggish.” That’s not a good sign in a 19 year old hoping to stay at catcher.
Every expert I’ve ever read (Kevin Golstein of BP, this site, John Sickels, various other websites) has said there is no way Montero stays at catcher in the bigs. They also all agree that he is an incredible hitting prospect. Now, you can disagree with all those assessments if you want to. That is certainly your right. You can also pick and choose which part of the assessment you want to believe (I’m guessing which ever part favors the Yankees). However, all those assessments are based on something, whether subjective evidence, statistical data, or some combination thereof. You Yankee fans can disagree all you like, but there is absolutely a consensus at least in the blogosphere on Montero’s (in)ability to catch in the majors.
Here’s what Kevin Goldstein had to say yesterday about Montero:
[i]It’s rare for a 19-year-old to be able to dominate a High-A league (and a pitcher’s circuit at that), but Montero is doing just that, as last night’s onslaught brought his averages up to .371/.421/.614, which puts him in the league’s top ten in all three categories. The other good news is that reports on his defense are better, which unfortunately upgrades him from complete unacceptable to well below average, and as a 6-foot-4, 230 pound teenager, he’s not going to get any small. First base is his likely destination in the end, but it’s not going to matter, because his bat is downright special.[/i]
So he’s really bad, but improving and he’s an amazing hitter.
Yes, he’s absolutely an amazing hitter. You’re focusing on the improving part, and ignoring the fact that it’s still nowhere good enough and unlikely to get there. Look, I’m about as die-hard a Yankee fan as there is. But every objective report I’ve read disregards Montero’s chances of sticking behind the plate.
I said he’s really bad defensively and the Goldstein blurb I posted said he’s likely to be a first baseman. How am I ignoring the fact that he’s a terrible catcher? I don’t think he’s going to be a catcher, but he is improving and it’s not effecting his development as a hitter, so why not keep him there as long as possible to see what happens?
If these “experts” were any good at evaluating minor league talent they wouldn’t be reporters they would be hired up by the 30 major league baseball teams that could actually use their talents instead of just writing random shit online so you guys have “sources” to backup your BS.
These people are just random humans that write random junk. He’s 20 years old, you have no idea what he’s going to do he could get in a car accident and never play a major league game in his life or he could go on to be the best defensive catcher ever. Weirder things have happened. most likely its going to fall somewhere in between and rattling on and on about how you know otherwise makes you look like an ass.
WOW
I love your logic. What’s the point of signing hyped up blue chippers in the first round of the Rule 4 draft? Just find 50 random 18 year olds willing to sign for minimum. They’re only 18, who knows what the future will bring? They could be great, they could be horrible. No point in trying to predict it.
I guess my little cousin has the same likelihood of making it to the big leagues as Montero, its all random.
Next time your team is looking to make a trade for prospects, they should just pick names out of a hat, or just get the cheapest ones. I mean, its all completely random right?
They’ve done studies on it. it pretty much works out that way. Ever heard of a book called moneyball?
It appears the random was referring to the writers, not the prospects.
It’s not like these guys are never wrong – a perusal of BA’s historical Top 100 lists makes that abundantly clear.
That said, perhaps we can agree it appears unlikely Montero sticks at C – but it’s not a done deal.
Guys, as annoying as it may be, alskor is probably correct. I hold out hope that Montero *might* be able to get his defense up to Jorge-type levels, but realistically… Jorge was a 2B at one point (probably not a very good one, but hey). Montero is a freaking beast, and will probably get bigger. His size & natural quickness (apparently poor) are big obstacles for him to overcome. It would be awesome if he could, ’cause switch hitting catchers with power & patience do not grown on trees, but it’s a longshot.
The beauty of it is that his bat will play anywhere. Would it be a bad thing to have a young, healthy DH instead of sticking whichever old broken down guy who can’t play the field anymore there?
The only problem with that is, what do they do with their old, broken down guys who can’t play the field anymore? How do you not always have a few of those around when you keep handing out long contract?
Not exactly a pressing problem, since Montero is still a teenager and in A ball. Still… he’s trying like hell to push the issue the way he’s been killing the ball.
“The beauty of it is that his bat will play anywhere. Would it be a bad thing to have a young, healthy DH instead of sticking whichever old broken down guy who can’t play the field anymore there?”
Yes, it would be a bad thing for several reasons:
(1) Players whose athleticism forces them to DH (players who can’t crack it at first or RF) age poorly
(2) Because replacement level at DH is so high (league average hitter), even if Montero turns into a 900 OPS guy his value at DH is still way less than A-Rod or Jeter or even Mark Texiera provide(d) in their prime.
(3) So basically, if Montero is destined for DH, he needs to turn into Pujols or peak Ortiz to be a star
(4) And the odds of any prospect, even a really great one like Montero, turning into one of the 3-5 best hitters in baseball are slim
(5) Which means that if he’s destined for DH, he’s a good-not-great prospect.
If he can handle 1B but is simply blocked by Texeira, then he’s an obvious candidate for a trade to a team with a hole at 1B who can wring more value out of him.
ehh, if you can hit .900 but is blocked at first, your not really going to complain about “ZOMG TEH REPLACEMENT LEVEL VALUE” and trade him and play guys who hit less there.
that’s one of the qualm I have with how replacement level is calculated for DH, if a team doesn’t have a full time DH and just rotate their better hitter’s there, then the guy replacing them in the lineup (i.e, your typical bench scrubs) are certainly no where close to where you define replacement level DH is at.
Dropping a ‘ZOMG” in your argument to mock what I wrote doesn’t make your argument compelling.
There’s really two separate assertions in what you wrote. Lets take them one-by-one.
“If you can hit 900 but are blocked at first, you’re not going to complain about replacement level value and trade him and play guys who hit less there”.
Yes, you would. If the guy who you have at first is also a 900 OPS hitter who has great first base defense, lets call him Tark Mexeira, then Montero has to DH. If Montero DH’s, his value is only in relation to the Jack Cust and Russ Branyans of the world. Does Montero possibly project to be a better player than either of those two guys? Sure, but its not a sure thing, and to be -markedly- better, like more than ~1 win better, he’ll have to turn into one of the top hitters in the league. It is very unlikely that any given prospect, even a great one like Montero, turns into a guy who is consistently at 900OPS or better.
“hat’s one of the qualm I have with how replacement level is calculated for DH, if a team doesn’t have a full time DH and just rotate their better hitter’s there, then the guy replacing them in the lineup (i.e, your typical bench scrubs) are certainly no where close to where you define replacement level DH is at.”
There are two possibilities here. The first is that teams are stupid at roster construction and waste the DH spot. Thats certainly a possibility (see: Replacement Level, SS in the 1970’s and 1980’s of). More likely, given the brains and $$ in front offices nowdays, is that there is a rational reason for the “rotation DH” method. While I can’t quantify this rigorously, I imagine that teams feel that the added production and durability you get from the other 8 positions over the season by giving players semi-days off at DH, the ability to keep bench players fresh by rotating them into the lineup without sacrificing your best bats, and the ability to keep a player’s bat fresh with DH plate appearanches when he is too injured to play the field; the lineup flexibility that lets you get the platoon advantage against big-platoon-split starters, especially lefty starters, all those little, barely quantifiable positives, maybe a half a win each over the course of a season, add up to a little more than the difference b/w the offensive performance of a full time DH and the offensive performances of bench player who plays every night to fill the spot of the guy who is playing DH.
Most of the teams in the AL, even the sabermetrically inclined ones, do not have a full-time DH at the start of a season. This presumptively indicates that unless you have a Hafner/Ortiz type hitter, the costs of a regular DH outweigh the benefits.
“If Montero DH’s, his value is only in relation to the Jack Cust and Russ Branyans of the world. Does Montero possibly project to be a better player than either of those two guys?”
Are you kidding? Yes, he does. At least their equal. Cust was a 2 win player in 2008 – unless people are very, very wrong about Montero’s bat he should be worth that pretty consistently, with the upside for more. Im an unabashed Cust fan, too, but Montero should beat him by about oh, 60-80 points of AVG in any given year. Montero is patient, but not Cust patient, but I would imagine their wOBA’s should be in the same neighborhood.
“There are two possibilities here. The first is that teams are stupid at roster construction and waste the DH spot.”
That is absolutely the case and there was an article about it on this site recently.
Think about this: Which is easier to crack? The top 5 DH’s in the AL or the top 5 1B?
By 2008 WAR
Top 5 1B
5.5 Youkilis
3.8 Pena
3.5 Morneau
2.9 Miggy
2.3 Giambi
Top 5 DH
4.5 Bradley
4.2 Huff
2.4 Vlad
2.2 Thome
2.0 Cust
To be safe, lets look at wOBA, too (2008, of course)
Top 5 1B
.402 Youk
.377 Giambi
.376 Miggy
.374 Pena
.369 Morneau (kind of suprised at this)
Top 5 DH
.423 Bradley
.387 Huff
.373 Vlad
.371 Cust
.370 Thome
Doesnt seem like there’s any noticeable difference to me. I guess we could look back multiple years to verify it, but it wont be me doing it. 1B=DH. DH=1B. At least from a “how useful is his bat” perspective (I dont imagine anyone is really concerned with Montero’s defensive WAR – which likely wouldnt be that good at 1B even if they had a MLB opening there. In fact, the chances are very, very poor he will be a better fielder than Teixeira… so I dont see what difference it makes.
I believe youre overstating the difference between 1B and DH. The replacement level isnt where you think it is.
LF or RF arent entirely out of the question, one would think, either. Well… maybe LF considering Yankee Stadium. Bottom line, this guy can rake but isnt a good defender anywhere most likely. Considering his age and distance from the majors, I dont think people should get ahead of themselves with the whole “he’s blocked” thing. Who the hell knows what will happen? He’s at least two years away one would think… Lots of contracts are up in that time, and there are all sorts of other considerations that could change.
alksor, I don’t have time to write a full reply, but I think you have a very simplistic view of sabermetrics.
dzop, I dont have time to explain why, but I think you have no idea what youre talking about. Seriously, what the hell are you talking about?
For the purposes of developing Montero as a prospect it makes virtually no difference whether he is a 1B or DH. Period. The contention was made that it would be harder for Montero to be an elite player at DH than at 1B – I dont believe that is true at all.
Lets go through all your contentions quick:
(1) Players whose athleticism forces them to DH (players who can’t crack it at first or RF) age poorly
This is not something that changes because you move the guy to DH. This has to do with how Montero profiles. He does not profile as a guy who will age well either way. If we moved Montero to CF it wouldnt make him age better! Btw, catchers age particularly poorly.
(2) Because replacement level at DH is so high (league average hitter), even if Montero turns into a 900 OPS guy his value at DH is still way less than A-Rod or Jeter or even Mark Texiera provide(d) in their prime.
So what? League average hitter is replacement at 1B too! There isnt much difference between replacement level at the two spots, especially considering Montero’s defense at 1B wont be good.
(3) So basically, if Montero is destined for DH, he needs to turn into Pujols or peak Ortiz to be a star
Flat out wrong. Showed why above. Equal probability at 1B or DH b/c he provides no defensive value at either.
(4) And the odds of any prospect, even a really great one like Montero, turning into one of the 3-5 best hitters in baseball are slim
Sure… doesnt change anything.
(5) Which means that if he’s destined for DH, he’s a good-not-great prospect.
Not true. His bat looks spectacular. Youre assuming people who have been ranking him were somehow duped into thinking he stays at catcher… no one thought he was staying at catcher. He still is a 19 year old dominating A ball with the bat.
1) Ok. Luckily for the Yankees, Montero is 19 and is destroying A ball. Let’s say he becomes an everyday MLB player at age 22. Let us further postulate that he declines sharply after 30. If the Yankees are intelligent about it, they should be able to get 5-10 years of good production out of this kid.
2) True. So ARod, Teixiera, Jeter > Montero. And? Those guys are/have been elite players. Next you will tell me that Montero isn’t the second coming of Babe Ruth.
3) To be a star at DH your bat has to be pretty special. The guy I was thinking of, actually, was Edgar Martinez. What I’m thinking, though, is that Montero may be able to upgrade the Yankees DH spot even while failing to be Albert Pujols.
4) Very true.
5) That’s possible.
Me, I see a great young hitter and I think “hey, the Yanks might be able to get a lot out of this guy if they use him right.” In his case, using him right may very well mean playing him at DH a lot. Maybe primary DH/backup C/backup 1B.
Anyway, the point of my post was NOT to claim that it’s no big deal if he can’t make it as a catcher. The point was that all is not lost if that (very realistic possibility) is the outcome.
“Flat out wrong. Showed why above. Equal probability at 1B or DH b/c he provides no defensive value at either.”
Umm, so this is then flat out retarded? You can provide NEGATIVE value at one position and not the other, which ultimately affects the overall value of a player. Defense counts, even at first.
So that would, again, be the opposite of what dzop is arguing. That was my point. For the sake of argument I was assuming that Montero could provide league averagish defense at 1B.
The issue was relative to Montero, and to his chances of becoming a “star” at either position. dpoz was saying its harder for him to do so at DH. Your point – that he could very well provide negative/below average defense at 1B – would support my position.
“League average hitter is replacement at 1B too! There isnt much difference between replacement level at the two spots.”
Excuse me? Are we talking about the same sport here? Both generally accepted methods of calculating replacement level–either analyzing the overall performance of “actual” replacement players (defined by Nate Silver as guys over age 27 making less than twice the league minimum), or looking at the fielding quality of position-switchers (as Tom Tango does)–find quite a substantial gap in replacement level between 1B and DH, on the order of 8-9 runs.
Nate’s replacement level is different than pretty much everybody else’s. This is a known issue.
More importantly, the issue is one of usage, not readily available talent – such as we’re discussing in terms of position switching a 19 year old prospect. As was discussed recently on this site, teams for some crazy reason don’t use the DH spot very effectively. Im saying WITH REGARDS TO MONTERO there is virtually no difference. Was not meant to be a catch all statement. We’re talking about the difference in value here for Montero…
So basically, if you ignore the more refined empirical studies, there’s a small gap in offensive replacement level between the two positions (and its not just Nate Silver who’s come up with this). If you ignore what teams are actually doing on the field and ascribe it to crazy groupthink, then there isn’t much of a difference between the two positions. In other words, if you wave wOBA with a one season sample-size, or some other blackbox stat that you don’t funny understand, you can make an argument that the difference in replacement levels is minimal and Jesus Montero is OMG awesome.
If, on the other hand, you use multiple metrics, account for defensive value, and multi-season sample sizes, there’s a big difference b/w 1B and DH (about 1 win). If you assume that teams aren’t stupid and behave rationally, then there’s an even bigger difference (if you look at the difference b/w DH “regulars” and 1B “regulars”). The idea that all the teams are stupid and I am smart b/c I read all the latest sabersites and why wont those teams hire me is very 2005. If 28 of 30 teams aren’t using DH in a way that your stat-of-choice deems to be optimal, then the problem probably lies in your stat of choice rather than the teams. There is enough creative and statistically savvy talent in front offices that you can assume they know how to use wOBA or dOucheBAg or whatever is the latest fad stat.
How many star DH prospects have come up in the past few seasons? I think the answer is….zero. I guess the Royals tried it with Butler, but look how that worked out. He’s an OK hitter but he’s a middling DH. The Great Leap Foward from minor league hitting star to big league DH hitting star (and frankly, to big league 1B star) is inherently somewhat random, because the prospect needs to turn into such a good big league hitter. If Montero turns into Morneau at DH (with no defensive value), he’s OK but no superstar. Kotchman looked like he was going to be a hitting stud in the minors-look how that came out. The only “pure” 1B/DH type prospect that panned out in recent years is Ryan Howard. Most of the great 1Bs come up at other positions, make the leap with the bat, and then get moved to 1B. Teixeira and Pujols both came up playing some 3B and OF. Berkman came up as an OF. If Montero is best-off at DH at age 19 in the [bleep]ing FSL, then he’s not a premier prospect no matter how many homers he hits. (Another one last night!)
This isnt a discussion about the usage of DH or relative value IN GENERAL. This is specific to one prospect. He does not get an extra win for the Yankees at 1B instead of DH! He is probably not a good defensive 1B from what the scouting reports say, so he may even provide negative value there. In either case, he is unquestionably an inferior defensive 1B to Teixiera, so moving Montero to DH and playing Tex at 1B clearly makes the most sense were that situation to come up – oh yeah, three years down the road and totally hypothetically.
Your major point seems to be this: Montero is worth less as a DH then as a 1B. The difference rests almost entirely on value over replacement – which you were arguing before about his ability to be a STAR at either position, not the value over replacement – and defensive value. Both of these issues are negated by the fact Montero has been described as “sluggish” and is not providing anything more than average (charitably assuming) to replacement level defense at 1B. We give him value in a WAR calculation for defense at 1B – but this is just basic credit for accumulated playing time. The defense Montero would bring to 1B is not some sort of rare skill. He is the same damn player at 1B or DH. To make minor league personnel decisions based on this sort of calculation is… well, crazy. He’s the same player at either position for all intents and purposes of this discussion.
This statement: “The only “pure” 1B/DH type prospect that panned out in recent years is Ryan Howard.”
Is just wrong.
Prince Fielder, Frank Thomas, Justin Morneau, David Ortiz, Adrian Gonzalez. Loney and Votto have played some in the OF, but are mainly 1B’s.
If Montero can hit .320 with 35 HR a year, he’s a prime prospect even as a DH.
Frank Thomas came up 20 years ago. Ortiz did -not- pan out: sucking for 4 seasons and only putting it together once you’ve been waived on your second team is not a success for the team which had you as a prospect.
And if Jesus Montero produces Joey Votto or James Loney’s performance at DH, he will be barely above a replacement level player.
“He is the same damn player at 1B or DH. ”
No, he absolutely is not. The offensive replacement level is 0.9 wins higher at DH than 1B. You then have to factor in all the other advantages of leaving the DH spot open, advantages which teams obviously recognize since they avoid full-time DH’s unless they have otherwordly offensive talents. Based upon the -actual- behavior of teams, it seems obvious that the -effective- offensive replacement level for DH isn’t just 1 win below 1B, its more like 2 wins. Because of the ultra-high -effective- replacement level at DH, it is very rare that even a great hitting prospect will hit at the MLB level to be a star at that position. Of the great 1B/DH prospects of the past 10 years, only 1 or 2 have hit at the MLB level sufficiently to be a star at DH.
Because of the long odds that even a guy who hits like Montero does, in that league, at that age, will be a 900OPS hitter or better in a neutral MLB context, and because of the very high replacement level at DH compared to all defensive positions, Montero is a middling prospect if he projects to DH at the MLB level.
1. Huh? Nate’s replacement level is exactly the same as everyone else’s (Tango, Woolner, etc.). I think you are confusing Nate with his BP colleague Clay Davenport, who advocated an 1899 Cleveland Spiders replacement level (and used one for BP’s player cards) until recently. But Nate’s Freely Available Talent study yielded the same 21 runs below/80% of positional average finding as the preexisting sabermetric consensus, with a few differences among the positions.
2. Dzop, I do not agree with you about the collective intelligence of MLB teams. If nothing else, bullpen utilization remains so heinously poor that I think it prima facie disproves the notion that clubs more or less know what they’re doing.
3. With regards to Montero: If he is worse than around a -9 fielder at 1B, he should DH (in the abstract). As Dzop correctly notes, since near-league average hitters with gloves of stone grow on trees in the minors, this sets the bar very high: he will need about a 114 OPS+ just to be a league-average player and a 137 to be a plausible All-Star. If he is better than -9 but worse than +10 or so (which is Teixeira), then he will be “blocked” and will have more value to another team than to NY, and the Yankees should trade him.
4. Dzop, Joey Votto and James Loney are not comparable hitters! A Votto at DH is still above average and worth $10M a year-plus on the pre-recession free agent market.
5. That’s quite a motley crew of names. Adrian Gonzalez is irrelevant since he is a GOOD fielding 1B. Fielder, however, certainly fits this mold, and indeed, his baserunning and defense are so poor (at least they were in 2008) that he’s little more than a league-average player, no more valuable than an average-fielding-and-running 85 OPS+ shortstop.
Um, BP’s had Fielder at 4.4 and 3.2 WAR the past two years. Fangraphs has had him at 4.9 and 2.6. That’s not “little more than league average”
League average is 2 WAR, so yes, the 2.6 from Fangraphs is what I’m referring to. Also, those numbers don’t include non-SB baserunning, where according to BP (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=472403) Fielder was 7 runs below average, dropping him down to 1.9 WAR or indeed below an average MLB regular.
OK, this is like, a month after the fact, but you can’t take a BP RAA stat and apply it to a Fangraphs WAR in a linear fashion like that; they use a different replacement level (one of the major issues people have with WARP3). Even still, wouldn’t that be accounted for in the WARP stats Fielder has? Seems to me you’re playing pretty fast and lose with the numbers.
Huh? First of all, BP’s replacement level has now been fixed to be the same as Fangraphs’s and everyone else’s. Second, even if it weren’t, *of course* you can add a runs above average stat from BP to Fangraphs WAR if what it measures is omitted from the Fangraphs WAR calculation. The equation for Fangraphs WAR is batting wins above league average plus fielding wins above positional average plus a positional adjustment, which is equal to the number of wins above replacement a player who is a league average hitter and a position average fielder would accumulate in the same playing time. This implicitly assumes that all players are league average baserunners, which is obviously incorrect. The proper approach is indeed to add a baserunning wins above league average stat (doesn’t matter where you get it from; BP/James/Rallymonkey etc.) directly to the Fangraphs WAR.