Comments on: Draft Review: New York Yankees

By: Dan Rosenheck

Dan Rosenheck — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 06:08:31 +0000

Huh? First of all, BP’s replacement level has now been fixed to be the same as Fangraphs’s and everyone else’s. Second, even if it weren’t, *of course* you can add a runs above average stat from BP to Fangraphs WAR if what it measures is omitted from the Fangraphs WAR calculation. The equation for Fangraphs WAR is batting wins above league average plus fielding wins above positional average plus a positional adjustment, which is equal to the number of wins above replacement a player who is a league average hitter and a position average fielder would accumulate in the same playing time. This implicitly assumes that all players are league average baserunners, which is obviously incorrect. The proper approach is indeed to add a baserunning wins above league average stat (doesn’t matter where you get it from; BP/James/Rallymonkey etc.) directly to the Fangraphs WAR.

By: Kevin S.

Kevin S. — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 11:41:39 +0000

OK, this is like, a month after the fact, but you can’t take a BP RAA stat and apply it to a Fangraphs WAR in a linear fashion like that; they use a different replacement level (one of the major issues people have with WARP3). Even still, wouldn’t that be accounted for in the WARP stats Fielder has? Seems to me you’re playing pretty fast and lose with the numbers.

By: Dan Rosenheck

Dan Rosenheck — Fri, 08 May 2009 01:34:21 +0000

League average is 2 WAR, so yes, the 2.6 from Fangraphs is what I’m referring to. Also, those numbers don’t include non-SB baserunning, where according to BP (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=472403) Fielder was 7 runs below average, dropping him down to 1.9 WAR or indeed below an average MLB regular.

By: nyyfaninlaaland

nyyfaninlaaland — Tue, 05 May 2009 08:06:37 +0000

It appears the random was referring to the writers, not the prospects.

It’s not like these guys are never wrong – a perusal of BA’s historical Top 100 lists makes that abundantly clear.

That said, perhaps we can agree it appears unlikely Montero sticks at C – but it’s not a done deal.

By: Rob in CT

Rob in CT — Mon, 04 May 2009 18:26:45 +0000

1) Ok. Luckily for the Yankees, Montero is 19 and is destroying A ball. Let’s say he becomes an everyday MLB player at age 22. Let us further postulate that he declines sharply after 30. If the Yankees are intelligent about it, they should be able to get 5-10 years of good production out of this kid.

2) True. So ARod, Teixiera, Jeter > Montero. And? Those guys are/have been elite players. Next you will tell me that Montero isn’t the second coming of Babe Ruth.

3) To be a star at DH your bat has to be pretty special. The guy I was thinking of, actually, was Edgar Martinez. What I’m thinking, though, is that Montero may be able to upgrade the Yankees DH spot even while failing to be Albert Pujols.

4) Very true.

5) That’s possible.

Me, I see a great young hitter and I think “hey, the Yanks might be able to get a lot out of this guy if they use him right.” In his case, using him right may very well mean playing him at DH a lot. Maybe primary DH/backup C/backup 1B.

Anyway, the point of my post was NOT to claim that it’s no big deal if he can’t make it as a catcher. The point was that all is not lost if that (very realistic possibility) is the outcome.

By: Kevin S.

Kevin S. — Sun, 03 May 2009 05:11:35 +0000

Um, BP’s had Fielder at 4.4 and 3.2 WAR the past two years. Fangraphs has had him at 4.9 and 2.6. That’s not “little more than league average”

By: Dan Rosenheck

Dan Rosenheck — Sat, 02 May 2009 21:26:30 +0000

1. Huh? Nate’s replacement level is exactly the same as everyone else’s (Tango, Woolner, etc.). I think you are confusing Nate with his BP colleague Clay Davenport, who advocated an 1899 Cleveland Spiders replacement level (and used one for BP’s player cards) until recently. But Nate’s Freely Available Talent study yielded the same 21 runs below/80% of positional average finding as the preexisting sabermetric consensus, with a few differences among the positions.

2. Dzop, I do not agree with you about the collective intelligence of MLB teams. If nothing else, bullpen utilization remains so heinously poor that I think it prima facie disproves the notion that clubs more or less know what they’re doing.

3. With regards to Montero: If he is worse than around a -9 fielder at 1B, he should DH (in the abstract). As Dzop correctly notes, since near-league average hitters with gloves of stone grow on trees in the minors, this sets the bar very high: he will need about a 114 OPS+ just to be a league-average player and a 137 to be a plausible All-Star. If he is better than -9 but worse than +10 or so (which is Teixeira), then he will be “blocked” and will have more value to another team than to NY, and the Yankees should trade him.

4. Dzop, Joey Votto and James Loney are not comparable hitters! A Votto at DH is still above average and worth $10M a year-plus on the pre-recession free agent market.

5. That’s quite a motley crew of names. Adrian Gonzalez is irrelevant since he is a GOOD fielding 1B. Fielder, however, certainly fits this mold, and indeed, his baserunning and defense are so poor (at least they were in 2008) that he’s little more than a league-average player, no more valuable than an average-fielding-and-running 85 OPS+ shortstop.

By: dzop

dzop — Sat, 02 May 2009 18:40:12 +0000

“He is the same damn player at 1B or DH. ”

No, he absolutely is not. The offensive replacement level is 0.9 wins higher at DH than 1B. You then have to factor in all the other advantages of leaving the DH spot open, advantages which teams obviously recognize since they avoid full-time DH’s unless they have otherwordly offensive talents. Based upon the -actual- behavior of teams, it seems obvious that the -effective- offensive replacement level for DH isn’t just 1 win below 1B, its more like 2 wins. Because of the ultra-high -effective- replacement level at DH, it is very rare that even a great hitting prospect will hit at the MLB level to be a star at that position. Of the great 1B/DH prospects of the past 10 years, only 1 or 2 have hit at the MLB level sufficiently to be a star at DH.
Because of the long odds that even a guy who hits like Montero does, in that league, at that age, will be a 900OPS hitter or better in a neutral MLB context, and because of the very high replacement level at DH compared to all defensive positions, Montero is a middling prospect if he projects to DH at the MLB level.

By: dzop

dzop — Sat, 02 May 2009 18:35:22 +0000

Frank Thomas came up 20 years ago. Ortiz did -not- pan out: sucking for 4 seasons and only putting it together once you’ve been waived on your second team is not a success for the team which had you as a prospect.

And if Jesus Montero produces Joey Votto or James Loney’s performance at DH, he will be barely above a replacement level player.

By: alskor

alskor — Sat, 02 May 2009 17:53:51 +0000

This isnt a discussion about the usage of DH or relative value IN GENERAL. This is specific to one prospect. He does not get an extra win for the Yankees at 1B instead of DH! He is probably not a good defensive 1B from what the scouting reports say, so he may even provide negative value there. In either case, he is unquestionably an inferior defensive 1B to Teixiera, so moving Montero to DH and playing Tex at 1B clearly makes the most sense were that situation to come up – oh yeah, three years down the road and totally hypothetically.

Your major point seems to be this: Montero is worth less as a DH then as a 1B. The difference rests almost entirely on value over replacement – which you were arguing before about his ability to be a STAR at either position, not the value over replacement – and defensive value. Both of these issues are negated by the fact Montero has been described as “sluggish” and is not providing anything more than average (charitably assuming) to replacement level defense at 1B. We give him value in a WAR calculation for defense at 1B – but this is just basic credit for accumulated playing time. The defense Montero would bring to 1B is not some sort of rare skill. He is the same damn player at 1B or DH. To make minor league personnel decisions based on this sort of calculation is… well, crazy. He’s the same player at either position for all intents and purposes of this discussion.