Duensing Adding Value in Twins Rotation
It took until August for the Minnesota Twins to finally remove the struggling Nick Blackburn from the rotation. Blackburn posted an FIP above 6 in all of the first four months except for May and simply wasn’t able to keep the ball in the yard nor limit walks. As a contact pitcher – career swinging strike rate of 5.4% and a K/9 of 4.25 – Blackburn simply doesn’t have that kind of margin for error.
Blackburn’s failures in the rotation opened the door for Brian Duensing, who had been toiling as a reliever for 39 appearances over the season’s first four months. Duensing was moderately successful in that role, posting a FIP near 3.50 and compiling three runs above replacement in 45 innings. His first start came on July 23rd; since then Duensing had compiled 54 innings of 3.75 FIP baseball prior to last night’s start against the Kansas City Royals. Duensing threw eight innings in that game, allowing one run on six hits while striking out seven and walking none, which will surely increase his 1.0 WAR already accrued in the starter’s role.
Duensing probably won’t keep this kind of performance up. His 2.0 BB/9 and 0.6 HR/9 are both due for regression according to ZiPS and are both below his 2009 totals. Duensing’s skills are somewhat similar to Blackburn’s in the sense that Duensing isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher (5.0 K/9) but he misses more bats (8.1% swinging strikes) and induces slightly more grounders (52% this year, 49% career) while walking more (2.6 BB/9 career against Blackburn’s 1.9). As such, ZiPS projects a 4.37 FIP going forward. That would be below the league average FIP, but certainly decent for a starting pitcher, particularly one who wasn’t regarded as good enough to crack the starting rotation at the beginning of the season.
What Duensing represents for the Twins is the great pitching depth with which they entered the season. Duensing was the one of six pitchers projected to be worth at least 14 runs above replacement. Even without Blackburn performing up to his prior levels – a projected 2+ WAR pitcher sitting at replacement level – the Twins have been able to plug in another starter without missing a beat. Duensing’s 1.0 WAR in 54 IP prior to his last start would be great for a team’s second or third starter, much less it’s sixth. Depth like that is one reason that the Twins were projected to reach the postseason out of the AL Central this year, and, with performance like Duensing’s, it’s now a reason why they hold a 5.5 game lead as we head down the stretch.
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After watching last nights game, I was just thinking Duensing has been flying under the radar despite having a rather impressive season and was wondering if anyone would write about him.
It will be interesting to see how the Twins sort out their pitching staff next year with Liriano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Duensing, Pavano, Perkins, Gibson and Wimmers all potentially filling rotation spots next season. Seems unlikely they will offer Pavano arbitration at this point, considering he would likely accept it and their payroll is already to the north of 100 million.
Duensing was a money pick-up for my fantasy team.
Ha! Me too, Tyler, both this year and last…
Duensing did exactly the same thing down the stretch last year IIRC. He’s a surprisingly effective starter. A similar surprise the last few weeks is Chris Narveson of MIL. In his last two starts he’s managed to affect the N.L. Central race by shutting down the Reds and Cards.
Duensing did manage to go 5-1 over 9 starts in 2009, having a pretty major impact upon that race last year.
I guess what I find most curious is that in both 2009 and 2010 Duensing has appeared as both a reliever and a starter and his K remain has remained consistent in both roles, but he has dramatically cut his BB rate as a starter.
It is a small sample size for both (114..2 IP as a starter and 76.1 IP as a reliever), but in 2009 his SO/BB went from 1.25 to 2.20 and in 2010 from 2.08 to 3.89.
Is this just random variation or is he doing something different as a starter?
He was a starter every year in the minors, so it’s possible he’s just more comfortable in the role of a starter. He’s said as much this year and last.
Reviewing his PitchFX results from this year seems to indicate that he’s throwing his 4-seamer much less often as a starter, and his two-seamer much more often. But that could just be a classification problem.
And I wouldn’t really compare him to Blackburn. He’s the a one-trick pony, pounding the strikezone with sinkers, that Blackburn is. And his off-speed stuff is much more useful than Blackburn’s. Duensing can attack with his slider & change, while Blackburn’s off-speed pitches are all pretty much just a change of pace from his fastball.
I know this is a little off topic but this article brought up a point about the vulnerability of the back end of the twins rotation that I’ve noticed for awhile now. As a person who hates all things Twins, I have come to accept the fact they will again win the AL Central. They will do it again with Morneau missing a large portion of the season for the second straight year. My point is the Twins have proven they don’t need Morneau to win the division, so would they be wise to deal him for an impact starter to backup Liriano so they might actually ya know…win A playoff game. The rotation simply isn’t built to be successful in October as we’ve seen with their 9 straight playoff losses. Dealing Morneau would also allow them to start transitioning Mauer to 1B to save his body long-term. Probably a discussion for an entirely different day but am I totally off my rocker as a bitter Sox fan?
No way Morneua brings equal value back with the contract he has (particularly coming off an injury). I doubt there is an “impact” starter on the market for a 1B. Twins have Gibson and Wimmers both fast tracked to reach the majors. Gibson could be in the Twins rotation opening day and Wimmers by late next year. Between Slowey, Baker, Gibson and Wimmers the Twins ought to have a respectable middle/end of the rotation for the next couple of seasons.
As for moving Mauer to 1B, that is simply insane. A ton of his value comes from the fact that he is a premium bat at a non-premium position (and players that position terrifically defensively). Even if playing catcher shortens Mauer’s, getting high value over the course of a few seasons is more valuable than moderate value over a number of seasons.
Liriano is as good a starter as there is in the American League. The Twins’ starting pitching is as good and deep as any in the league. This belief that the Twins have some sort of playoffs Achilles heel in the starter department is as weird as it is persistent. Last year, they lost 3 straight mostly close games, while getting excellent starting pitching in games 2 and 3 (while game 1 was essentially a throwaway for the Twins after a ridiculous game 163 the night before). In 2006, they had the best starting pitcher in the American League, and they still lost. They are where they are this year in large part because their starters have been excellent as a group and there is no reason to think the starters will be anything but a strength for them heading into the playoffs.
Liriano is terrific. But for the remainder of this season and heading into the playoffs, I am concerned about the Twins pitching. Liriano is as good as starter as there is in MLB right now. But Pavano is a middle rotation innings eater and sadly both Baker and Slowey have struggled with injury as of late. This potentially puts Duensing as the Twins 3rd starter in the playoffs, a role I do not relish him having despite his successes. I think in the mid to long term the Twins have great organizational depth at SP and will be fine, but in the short term it has to be a concern w/ Baker and Slowey banged up.
CC’s advanced numbers are pretty pedestrian for an ace. Andy Pettite’s coming off the DL, and who knows how good he’ll be on return. Hughes has struggled recently and is hitting his innings limits. I know that AJ and Vazquez USED to be dominant pitchers, but they’ve struggled to be average this year.
Price is very much like CC: flashy traditional stats that don’t awe you on closer inspection. The rotation on the whole is solid and deep, but if you don’t see a #2 on the Twins, I don’t know where you get one on Tampa.
Texas’s pitchers are maybe the best-looking 1-3, but beyond Lee they seem to get the least credit and I think they’ve all struggled lately. Wilson’s pitched over 100 innings more than his previous high. Lee is missing a start. Is he going to be 100%?
Both Baker and Slowey look to be healthy soon. And really between those 2, Pavano and Duensing, you can sort of take your pick. None are world-beaters, but all are pretty good. Even Blackburn’s been good since returning from AAA.
There just isn’t the Johnson/Schilling combo people imagine out there. I’ll take Liriano and a bunch of solid options versus anything the other guys have right now, but really, I don’t think there are going to be a ton of mismatches starter-wise these playoffs.
You are preaching to the choir here. I think people fail to realize how good the Twins actually have been this year. While the Twins are 3rd in the AL in ERA, they actually are first in FIP. And while the Rays, Yankees and Rangers are all in the top half in ERA, all 3 teams rank in the bottom half of the AL in FIP. The Twins staff has been arguably the best in the AL this year and none of the other 3 likely playoff teams can make a similarly compelling case.
But that being said, I am not so relaxed when it comes to arm injuries and what should be the Twins #2 and #3 pitchers. Slowey has missed time twice with arm injuries this year. He has just 3 starts over which he threw 14 Innings with 9 Ks and 6 walks, allowing 6 runs since they skipped his start in early August. There has to be some concern he won’t be 100% for the playoffs. Similarly, Baker is getting his 2nd cortisone shot on the season and will miss at least 2 starts. We don’t know for sure when he will be back and given the re occuring problems he is having with tendinitis, there is no guarantee he will be coming back at 100%.
no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
Biggest problem (of so many) is this: “The rotation simply isn’t built to be successful in October as we’ve seen with their 9 straight playoff losses.”
You’re talking about 2009, 2006 and 2004. Not a single one of those games in 2004 or 2006 was started by a pitcher who is currently on the team, and the starting lineup for those games included names like Shannon Stewart, Luis Castillo, Lew Ford and Rondell White. And in the 2009 playoffs, the starting pitchers put up a 4.15 ERA. Against the Yankees.
If ten playoff games could EVER prove anything, this certainly wouldn’t be one of those times.
I don’t think it’s crazy to think about trading Morneau, but not for any of these reasons.
You forgot about Jason Tyner, Henry Blanco, and others.
In 2004 and 2006 they did have a guy named Santana who, at the time I believe, was better than Liriano is now. Just sayin’….
And surprisingly (not really), the games won in 2003 and 2004 versus the Yankees were those pitched by Johan Santana.
The Twins lost both of those series 3-1.
Santana 2004 2.92 FIP
Santana 2006 3.04 FIP
Liriano 2010 2.37 FIP
Not saying he is better, but it isn’t clear cut like you seem to think.
“…am I totally off my rocker as a bitter Sox fan?”
You’re totally off your rocker to BE a Sox fan.
I totally understand the value of having Mauer behind the plate at a non-offensive position such as catcher, as well as his defensive abilities. I’m a Sox fan I know all too well unfortunatley. I obviously don’t know the interworkings of the Twins organization that well, do they understand the value he has behind the plate or would they look at it from the traditional perspective of moving him to “save his legs?”
I am pretty sure the Twins fully understand the value that Mauer provides behind the plate.
That is pretty obvious – it would be asinine for any MLB organization to ignore Mauer’s value behind the plate.
Yup. If the Twins didn’t clearly understand his value and intend to keep him at C long term, this would have been the season to being transitioning him to 3B (a more logical transition than 1B considering Mauer’s arm and athleticism). They had a catching prospect in Ramos who could have been groomed to take Mauer’s spot over the next couple of seasons. Them dealing Ramos (for less than optimum value no less) clearly expressed the organization’s philosophy on Mauer).
Exactly – you don’t trade a prospect like Ramos for Matt Capps if you feel like Joe Mauer isn’t going to remain behind the plate for a long period of time.
That would just be stupid on the part of the Twins.
He’s been moderately successful? When talking about success and failure shouldn’t we be using actual numbers? If you want to use FIP or something else to say he’s not really that good, fine. Man, you guys bug the crap out of me sometimes. He is actually doing the 2.00 ERA thing in real life, okay?
Now let me repeat the same comment I’ve written in two other Duensing posts on this site: He is not a 6th starter. He is lefthanded and is averaging 91.2 on the fastball. The slider is an out pitch, and this year the changeup is working. He has good control in addition to good stuff, he is in the middle of year two of not only a high GB rate but a very low LD rate. And that very low LD rate was the case in the minors also. At some point one of you will do some actual analysis and then Duensing will be a the greatest things since sliced bread. But the truth is he’s been good all along.
BUT HIS STRAND RATE IS 83%!!!!!!111
Who cares? He is a 27 year old pitcher with less than 200 career IP who is limiting runs yet again for a team in a playoff race.
Yeah, Fangraphs really took the air out of Duensing, Paul. “Duensing’s 1.0 WAR in 54 IP prior to his last start would be great for a team’s second or third starter, much less it’s sixth.” Claiming that he’s posting a #2/3 starter level WAR clearly demonstrates their disdain. Calm the eff down.
Instead of getting mad at Jack, who clearly appreciates Duensing, get mad at the Twins for not starting Duensing sooner.
Duensing shouldn’t have been moved into the rotation that much earlier than he was. Given track records and performance he doesn’t really justify starting over Liriano, Pavano, Baker or Slowey. Certainly he outperformed Blackburn by a large margin this year, but they couldn’t give up on Blackburn early given his track record of (moderate) success and the big contract they signed him to during the offseason.
I like Duensing a lot, but the Twins seem to have a great deal of success finding guys like him. As I said before, w/ Liriano, Slowey, Baker, Blackburn, Duensing, Gibson and Wimmers, the Twins are going to be pretty set for the next few seasons.
I’m glad someone else said something about this. He has 191 innings pitched over the past 2 seasons (about equivalent to a full season for many starters) – far from career establishing, but also far from just a hot/lucky streak. During that time he has an RE24 of 43.17! (With a RS/9 of only 4.12.) Since, in my 45 years of following baseball, it has always seemed that runs were the most important part of winning, how does this only translate into a 2.9 WAR? (Maybe someone decided Duensing deserved a better than average replacement for some reason.) Oh, and by the way, (and NOT to say he is comparable, just observing…) his numbers have a lot of similarity to one Tom Glavine.
@ NotDave
Put the fork down for a second. You and the rest of your fat disgusting fanbase should talk when you win something in October. Minnesota is the playoff disappointment capital of the world, if you could step away from the dinner table for a second you would know that.
Stay classy Sox27 what an intelligent well thought out post.
I wasn’t too disappointed in 1987 or 1991. Can’t say I have been upset making the playoffs 5 of the last 8 seasons either (6 of 9 after this year). Sure winning the WS again would be nice, but they get to the playoffs enough, eventually one will break their way.
BTW
Minnesota Obesity Rate=26.4
Illinois Obesity Rate=26.9
Source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/04/the-fattest-states-of-america/
Illinois’ obesity rate doesn’t effect me since I live in Indiana, way to go out of your way to research it though. Walk around in the loop of Chicago and tell me there’s as many obese people as there are in Minnesota. Funny how you “Twinkie” lovers can dish it out but can’t take it.
Diese kann a Spaziergang – durch für alle Daten Sie gesucht über dies und wusste nicht, wen Sie fragen. Glimpse right here, und auch Sie ‘ll definitiv aufzudecken es.
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