Ends of the Run Support Spectrum
One of my favorite numbers to look at is the run support provided to a given pitcher. It’s nothing necessarily sustainable but provides solid supporting evidence when discussing the validity or merit of a starting pitcher’s statistics, namely his W-L record. For instance, many understand that W-L records are not necessarily indicative of performance quality–a guy can give up 2 or 3 runs in 8 innings and lose, or give up 5 runs in 5 innings, but receive 8 runs of support and win.
Interestingly enough, that example comes pretty close to replicating both ends of the run support spectrum. John Lannan, who Dave noted should be known for more than just injuring Chase Utley last year, is at the bottom, receiving just 22 total runs in his 14 starts. When extrapolated it comes to 2.39 RS/9, a full 0.39 runs ahead of closest “competitor” Paul Byrd. However, he has a 3.36 ERA and, including unearned runs, has a RA/9 of 3.47.
On the opposite end we have Kyle Kendrick of the Phillies. In 15 starts this season Kendrick has received 74 runs of support, or 8.50 RS/9. The next closest? Oliver Perez, whose 7.47 RS/9 is over a full run less.
It comes as no surprise then that Lannan is 4-8 and Kendrick is 6-3, even though the former appears to be pitching better than the latter.
Additionally, Kendrick is no stranger to run support either, as his 7.74 RS/9 last season would be atop the Fangraphs leaderboard if his 20 starts qualified for inclusion. So, in the last two years, Kendrick has made 34 starts and received 178 runs of support. In those 34 starts he has gone 199.1 innings while allowing 99 runs (earned or unearned). Since his mid-season callup in 2007 he has gone 16-7; his 4.47 RA/9 is more than erased by his 8.04 RS/9.
Maybe Lannan should talk to Kendrick about lending him some of those runs in order to boost his barometer.
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One thing that might be helping Kendricks is his position in the rotation. I assume he is the Phil’s #5 starter. I know that most people think that rotations shift and all that, so you don’t necessarily face #1 vs. #1 all the time, but anyone who has a fantasy league knows that most times that one starter starts on a day and another starter starts too, 9 times out of 10, those two starters are starting on the same day again on their next start. And if they miss one, they usually end up together again on their next start.
So given the Phil’s strong offense, they probably beat up on most team’s #4 and #5 starters, which is probably who Kendricks faces all the time. Add to that the fact that Kendricks so far is pitching like a middle rotation starter, that should add up to a lot of wins for him.
Hmm… very interesting! Here are those Kendrick faced:
1) Josh Fogg
2) Mike Pelfrey
3) Roy Oswalt
4) Mark Redman
5) Matt Morris (released next day)
6) Pat Misch
7) Micah Owings
8) JoJo Reyes
9) Roy Halladay (rain delay, both pitchers out after 2.1 IP)
10) Roy Oswalt
11) Ubaldo Jimenez
12) Bronson Arroyo
13) JoJo Reyes
14) Todd Wellemeyer
15) Justin Masterson
So, other than Oswalt and the 1/3 Halladay game, everything else has been against #3 or worse starters.
And Oswalt has pitched pretty badly this year. Of those guys, the only players with ERA’s under 4.50 are (I believe):
Jojo Reyes
Roy Halladay
Wellemeyer
Masterson
Actually, my mistake with Halladay; it was a rain delay that game and Roy pitched 2.1 innings in relief; though everyone on the Blue Jays rotation is good, so just replace Halladay with whomever… and they beat up on Wellemeyer, too.